A theory about NFL QBs and durability

[kearly]

Something that comes up in conversation quite a bit when I talk football with friends is how everyone says it's only a matter of time before Colin Kaepernick becomes an injury prone QB for his run happy habits and his willingness to eat hits as a runner. And yet, Colin Kaepernick rushed for 4000 yards in college, and he's rushed for quite a bit in the NFL, and as far as I know he's never been injured. And watching him play, I can't even remember the last time I saw him get up slowly. Dude's kind of lanky, but make no mistake, he's a tank.

Cam Newton only had 1 college (division I) season, but his story is pretty similar. Lots of rushes, lots of hits taken, but no injuries and the guy doesn't even seem to ever get up slowly.

And then I thought about the QBs who were well known for getting dinged a lot. Michael Vick. Jeff Garcia. Steve Young. RG3. Jake Locker. Jay Cutler. Matt Stafford. Sam Bradford. Matt Hasselbeck. To a lesser extent, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady could be mentioned too. And if you want to include QBs who get dinged A LOT but keep playing, toss in Big Ben and Brett Favre too. I'm sure there are more QBs worth considering, those were just the first that leapt to mind.

Of those QBs, only Big Ben stands 6'5". Matt Hasselbeck, Sam Bradford, and Tom Brady stand 6'4". Jay Cutler is 6'3". Jake Locker and Matt Stafford are 6'2.5". RG3, Steve Young, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers are 6'2". Jeff Garcia is 6'1". Michael Vick is 6'0".

I then looked at that list and removed the QBs who were clearly pocket passers or weren't the best athletes, and it became pretty clear that the QBs with the highest injury risk predominantly sit in the 6'0" to 6'3" range. Remember, "prototypical QB" height is 6'4" or 6'5". (Both Kaepernick and Newton are 6'5").

What's interesting is that there have really only been two QBs to see significant time in the modern NFL while playing under 6'. Those of course are Russell Wilson and Doug Flutie, and this is where things get pretty interesting. Doug Flutie, other than a late season injury in the CFL before his NFL career began, was injury free and played football all the way into his 40s. Russell Wilson's only injury was a freshman year concussion at NC State, and as far as I know he's never missed a game at any level from injury.

I know a sample size of two isn't much, but funny enough it seems that at least so far, being VERY short actually helps you avoid injuries in the NFL, while being over 6'4" also seems to help a great deal.

My working theory here is this: Most QB injuries occur above the waist. Concussions, dislocated shoulders, injured hands/fingers, broken ribs. Sometimes QBs have knee injuries or foot injuries, but most QB injuries seem to occur above the waist. How high you stand effects how high your hand is off the ground when you pass, which effects the probability of it being struck by a helmet on follow-through. The higher you stand, the more likely you are to take a hit square in the pads and the less likely you are to take a hit straight to the shoulder/neck/jaw/head area. And of course, the taller you stand, the more likely you are to weight 220, 230, 240.

So why have Flutie and Wilson been such amazing exceptions? My theory is that their smaller stature allows them to duck under some hits that 6'2" QBs cannot. Turning huge blows into grazing near-hits. That's just a theory, but it's hard to deny Flutie's longevity or Wilson's remarkable durability so far, and both were very well known for being scrambling, mobile QBs.

Anyway, FFT.

 

[ivotuk]

I think it's build ratio, height, weight, thickness. If you are thick like Russell, there is enough muscle on the body to protect all the ligaments and joints. Michael Vick is fairly thin, yet Flutie was thick IIRC. Cam Newton is a physical phenomenon whereas Ben is a bit gangly. I can't figure Kaep out because he is so long, but he's like a gazelle.

With Colin I think it's the fact that he is so fast and the lanes he gets are so huge that a tackler is never able to line up and give him a good shot. And during the NFCCG he slid a lot. Russell has a lot of beef on his frame but he still took a beating in the first Rams game.

I remember about 3 years ago the HC for the Vikings was upset with Adrian Peterson who was putting on weight to protect himself. If AP thought extra muscle was a good idea, then maybe that's it.

But like you say, a lot has to do with where they are hit and what is vulnerable at the time of contact. Maybe some of it has to do with technique which is directly effected by height. Background has a lot to do with it though. Russell's background in baseball makes him good at sliding whereas Matt Hasselbeck sucked at it. I think it was Jim Zorn that bought a Slip-n-Slide to help teach #8 how to slide.

 

[Lieutenant Dan]

Just my observations...

Kaep: as has been said, he covers a lot of ground and looks like he's not actually running that fast. He also is smart with slides at just the right time. I bet defenses really want to put a lick on him but they just can't adjust for his gait.

Wilson: fantastic build with an ideal amount of muscle and protection, very good speed, and a smart runner who knows when to go out of bounds or slide. I still have concerns about how many sacks he takes though.

RGIII and Vick: cut from the same mold. Two guys who have exceptional mobility but always seem to try for the marker to their detriment. I don't question their hearts but to me they aren't smart runners.

 

[Scottemojo]

Well, I think Russell has played hurt this year a few times. He is just a tough guy. Houston and at STL stand out as games I am pretty sure he was hurt.

FWIW, I don't think Colin will get hurt, he doesn't take that many square hits. In fact, I think his issue with avoiding the pocket is about him not wanting to get hit. Newton get goal line carries, and runs more middle zone plays, but he is big enough that not many defenders square him up.

 

[sutz]

IIRC there was a stat once that noted that scrambling QBs get hurt less than pocket passers, especially since the advent of the slide rule. Maybe it was just some talking head that said it, but it kind of stands to reason. A guy in motion out in the open field takes less hits than the guy in the pocket, getting big guys shoved back into their faces and being hit from all angles.

I do know that 'little' guys like Wilson can duck under hits sometimes, we've all seen him do it. And much like a running back, he can hide behind the bigger OL-men and be less visible to the defense.

As for where the injuries occur, I'm sure the rules have something to do with that.

 

[Shock2k]

That's interesting. I wonder between the two heights, what injuries were to the knee's/legs and what injuries were other (broken fingers/ribs etc).

I could see pocket type passers more at risk for leg injuries as apposed to scramblers that would avoid many of those leg injury "opportunities" (rolling D/O lineman etc)

 

[kearly]

Well, I think Russell has played hurt this year a few times. He is just a tough guy. Houston and at STL stand out as games I am pretty sure he was hurt.

I guess I didn't see what you saw in the Houston game- a game where (to me) Wilson didn't show any evidence of head trauma and also ran the ball extremely well. If there was one game this year where I thought Wilson might have been unofficially injured, it was the Tampa game. He took some big shots early in that game and seemed genuinely effected by them in the first half.

But for the most part, I think it would be grossly inaccurate to portray Wilson as a guy who plays hurt, though for sure he is a tougher QB than some. He's yet to have a documented injury in the NFL. He might play through a little pain and he takes tough hits sometimes, but that's true of every QB in the NFL.

FWIW, I think Russ is the kind of guy that would sustain a mild concussion and not tell a soul.

 

[chris98251]

Have not looked but how tall were Aikman and Staubach, they both played for Dallas coeinsicidenly also but both had a history of concussions, One a mobile guy that took off and Aikman the more traditional passer.

 

[cockeyhawk]

Not by people that compare .1% of the quarterbacks to play the game all time.

Edited by Radish for language attacking the posters.

 

[DavidSeven]

Russell has been wearing sleeves since the Tampa game. My hunch is that it's to disguise an injury. Doesn't seem like anyone is acknowledging it or even questioning why he's worn bulky sleeves for the last 10 weeks.

 

[sc85sis]

Maybe because the weather turned colder?

 

[DavidSeven]

Maybe because the weather turned colder?

Possibly. He started wearing them in Atlanta, though (in a dome). He went sleeveless all of last year, including in DC in January.

 

[Scottemojo]

Well, I think Russell has played hurt this year a few times. He is just a tough guy. Houston and at STL stand out as games I am pretty sure he was hurt.

I guess I didn't see what you saw in the Houston game- a game where (to me) Wilson didn't show any evidence of head trauma and also ran the ball extremely well. If there was one game this year where I thought Wilson might have been unofficially injured, it was the Tampa game. He took some big shots early in that game and seemed genuinely effected by them in the first half.

But for the most part, I think it would be grossly inaccurate to portray Wilson as a guy who plays hurt, though for sure he is a tougher QB than some. He's yet to have a documented injury in the NFL. He might play through a little pain and he takes tough hits sometimes, but that's true of every QB in the NFL.

FWIW, I think Russ is the kind of guy that would sustain a mild concussion and not tell a soul.

For sure he got dinged in the Tampa game. I thought he got bent pretty badly a couple times on the road at Arizona too, and the resulting fumbles were a bit out of character.

I think durability is highly individual. Kaep will avoid injury because he avoids contact for the most part. not wanting contact is part of the reason I think he doesn't use the pocket very well, when he does step into a nice pocket he throws some lazers. He does long stride into that throw, with a straight front leg, which looks vulnerable, but they have rules now to protect that leg. Thanks, Tom Brady.

Hass was always hurt, he simply couldn't take many hits. Ribs, back, knees, it was always something. He missed games. Roethlisberger is always hurt too, but he doesn't miss as many games. For the amount of shots he takes, Rodgers has been amazingly tough, and he isn't a thick guy. Alex Smith looks more the part than Rodgers, but could never take much abuse. Favre would have drug himself out to play, and did, no matter how bad he was hurt.

My conclusion would be that beyond the truly debilitating injuries, like broken collarbones, avoiding major injuries is more about playing style than body type, and the ability to play hurt is highly variable.

And Cockeyhawk is an ass hole.

 

[Marvin49]

Just my 2 Cents...

With Wilson, he's really built much more like a RB than a QB. He can escape and seldom takes huge hits. He's compact and powerful.

With Kap, as you said he's much faster than people think he is but what really helps him stay healthy is that he's smart about how he runs. He gets down or gets out of bounds. He doesn't try to be a hero and take hits he doesn't need to take. RGIII needs to learn that lesson.

Of the 3, I think Cam stands the biggest chance of getting hurt. To compare them to other position players...Wilson is Emmit Smith-ish, Kap is Randy Moss-ish and Cam is Eddie George-ish. Cam seems to seek out contact much more and while he is impressive physically, I think he'll end up taking some huge hits he doesn't need to take.

Of the three (and assuming all other things are equal) I'd say Wilson stands the least chance of getting hurt. He's just so damn slippery. Kap has outstanding acceleration and straight line speed, but he doesn't escape the pocket as well as Wilson does. He doesn't create space for himself the way Wilson does.

 

[Marvin49]

Well, I think Russell has played hurt this year a few times. He is just a tough guy. Houston and at STL stand out as games I am pretty sure he was hurt.

I guess I didn't see what you saw in the Houston game- a game where (to me) Wilson didn't show any evidence of head trauma and also ran the ball extremely well. If there was one game this year where I thought Wilson might have been unofficially injured, it was the Tampa game. He took some big shots early in that game and seemed genuinely effected by them in the first half.

But for the most part, I think it would be grossly inaccurate to portray Wilson as a guy who plays hurt, though for sure he is a tougher QB than some. He's yet to have a documented injury in the NFL. He might play through a little pain and he takes tough hits sometimes, but that's true of every QB in the NFL.

FWIW, I think Russ is the kind of guy that would sustain a mild concussion and not tell a soul.

For sure he got dinged in the Tampa game. I thought he got bent pretty badly a couple times on the road at Arizona too, and the resulting fumbles were a bit out of character.

I think durability is highly individual. Kaep will avoid injury because he avoids contact for the most part. not wanting contact is part of the reason I think he doesn't use the pocket very well, when he does step into a nice pocket he throws some lazers. He does long stride into that throw, with a straight front leg, which looks vulnerable, but they have rules now to protect that leg. Thanks, Tom Brady.

Hass was always hurt, he simply couldn't take many hits. Ribs, back, knees, it was always something. He missed games. Roethlisberger is always hurt too, but he doesn't miss as many games. For the amount of shots he takes, Rodgers has been amazingly tough, and he isn't a thick guy. Alex Smith looks more the part than Rodgers, but could never take much abuse. Favre would have drug himself out to play, and did, no matter how bad he was hurt.

My conclusion would be that beyond the truly debilitating injuries, like broken collarbones, avoiding major injuries is more about playing style than body type, and the ability to play hurt is highly variable.

And Cockeyhawk is an ass hole.

The bolded is seconded.

 

[Hawkaholic]

I've been quietly wondering if Wilson injured his L shoulder a while back. He started wearing that half-sleeve undershirt and the L arm is almost always thicker than the R.... Possibly covering a tape job or slim brace. It's hard to find clear pictures of it though.

 

[DavidSeven]

Looks pretty obvious that there's either padding or a brace under his left sleeve.

 

[Happypuppy]

I think it's very much like running backs. Some take a lot more solid hits . If there is one thing that I believe is a determining family for it is that

 

[kearly]

I do think that toughness is highly individual, but I guess I just see it differently with durability. A lot of those injuries Hass had were not the kind he could have just gutted it out and played through.

I look at Kaepernick and Newton and I see tanks. I disagree about Kaepernick avoiding contact, at least when he's running. That may well be true in the pocket, but no two QBs in the NFL seek the sideline less than Newton and Kaep. That's what makes Kaep such a dangerous runner, he runs with a WR mentality because he believes that any time he cuts inside its a chance for 6. Think back on the NFFCG and how many times he forced Seattle to tackle him. By contrast guys like Wilson and Rodgers will turn down easy yardage to seek the sideline as early as possible.

And I think the reason Kaep has that mentality is that getting a square hit on him at his build and speed is just about impossible. With Wilson, I am less secure about his durability, but I think there is something to be said about him never missing a game or the fact that he hasn't even been on an injury report in 5 years.

It's a well established fact in scouting circles that taller/heavier QBs are historically more durable. Really the point of my post is trying to understand why Wilson and Flutie have been exceptions. It could just be small sample size.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Tough mental outlook helps. I think it has a lot to do with how much "meat" you have on your frame, along with how adept you are at simply folding when you know you're about to get hit. Some guys fall awkwardly. Some don't. I calculated how much several QBs, including Kaepernick and Wilson, weigh per inch of height. Some of the results of random other QBs around the league are quite surprising, but it's a decent way to gauge muscularity. Wish I would have saved them...I may recalculate some at some point.