A month ago the Seahawks were +500 to win the NFC West and now they're +400. To put that in perspective it's a re-evaluation from 16.666% to 20%. Most long-term lines have reacted to multiple injuries on the 49ers roster and the back injury to the Rams QB. Obviously that impacts the divisional race more than win totals. It's also fair to say that the Seahawks have looked better in preseason than many outsiders were expecting to see, (myself included). It's not a massive re-evaluation,
I haven't commented about the Seahawks win-total betting line this offseason because whilst the thread on dot net talked about 7.5 the line i've most commonly seen was 8.5. (Similarly the Week 1 handicap line has been 2.5 for months rather than 1.5). I don't believe the odds have moved from -380; +330 to -130; +110 about any specific win total. The line has clearly moved 'somewhat' over the month. A move from +330 to +110 would indicate an increase in probability from 23.3% to 47.6%. I've not seen that sort of line move.
For what it's worth you can an idea of how likely any specific win total is likely to be using an online binomial calculator. I use stattrek dot com but it's just a simple math tool available from multiple sites via a search engine. For example: if I thought the Seahawks had an average of 46% to win each game then inputting a win probability of 0.46, trials at 17, and successes at 8 would indicate a 19.03% probability of winning exactly 8 games. Obviously this will give you a very generic and flawed data outcome because some games will be almost certain wins and some games will be almost impossible...give or take. Again at 0.46, (and i'm obviously guesstimating the Seahawks as a slightly below average team), a total of 9 wins would be 16.21% and 7 wins would be 17.87%. Moving the win total line up or down 1 win wouldn't move the line 20+%.
