RichNhansom":ebkmufrg said:
I guess we'll agree to disagree. I think you can look at the preseason games and easily extrapolate expected results based on all the throws, defensive reads, speed of getting the ball out and adjusting for horrific timing of key drops. Only if you discredit Flynn for receiver drops can you grade him poorly but the ball in 90+% was put were not only it should have been caught but was placed in a leading position that positively impacts YAC.
I honestly believe Flynn has better value than Smith and I would be surprised if the Niners will garner as much as Seattle will for each. Neither are UFA's and they're contracts are not hat dissimilar so we will see how things play out. I know I would be worried about my FO if they viewed Smith as viable starter and how each gets treated as far as traded or released as well as how each performs next year is my exact point.
If I am playing GM and need a QB to start for me next year, I am willing to invest more for Flynn than Smith. There are plenty of dumb GM's out there or we wouldn't have got anything for Jackson but I think the smart ones will actually look at the performances rather than the stats and will see more potential in Flynn.
Yeah, we'll just disagree then. Saying you'd be "worried about your FO if they viewed Smith as a viable starter" is ridiculous, imo, especially when compared with your unwavering support for Flynn. Flynn has not come close to proving himself as much as Smith has. All you're banking on with Flynn is potential, whereas Smith has proven that he can manage a game very well for you, and make some plays when necessary. All of 2011 and half of 2012 PROVE that for Smith. He's got tons more experience than Flynn does no matter how you measure it, and that matters to the FO types.
In 2011, Smith started all season long for a team that played deep into the postseason and played well. He was very much a game manager, but he showed flashes of being able to air it out when necessary (see the 299-yard, 3 TD, 0 INT performance against the Saints in the playoffs). In 2012, he was showing even greater accuracy, and outside of a bad game against the Giants, protected the ball well. Half of his first 8 games generated a passer rating above 100, and his Week 8 game against the Cardinals was one of the best passer performances of any QB in the league all season long. And he didn't lose his job because he played poorly... he lost it due to injury.
Smith's got 80 regular season games under his belt, and he's posted very, very good performances in at least a quarter of them. Of his top 20 games (all of which have a passer rating above 98), 13 of them have come in the last 2 seasons. That's what a FO will look at when considering Smith. They're not going to focus on his struggles in '05 or '06. His 2 postseason games last year were also strong performances.
Honestly, I don't see how you can be such a huge Flynn fanboy and yet dismiss Smith so readily. There is zero evidence of how Flynn will perform when a team can prepare for him as the starter. There's zero evidence for how he will perform when faced with a strong defense. There is zero evidence of how he will perform when given the keys to an offense that isn't among the very best in the league. In other words, Flynn remains an unknown quantity as a potential starting QB. Smith, on the other hand, is more of a known quantity - he's a game manager who avoids turnovers for the most part, with the potential to put up decent numbers, even against strong defenses. Smith isn't the inspirational leader type, but neither is Flynn.