Seattle v Atlanta: the statistical truth

Atlanta's schedule ranked 32nd (the easiest) in the NFL regarding the defensive strength of their opponents. They averaged 26 points per game. Seattle's schedule ranked 3rd toughest in the NFL regarding the defensive strength of their opponents. They also averaged 26 points per game. Are we to believe that the Seahawks offense is actually much better than the Falcons offense? With even an average running game the Falcons would be an offensive juggernaut. But with a poor running game they are one dimensional and merely above average. Speaking of average, the Falcons essentially played against the Buffalo Bills defense every week. And they managed 26 points per game. The Seahawks essentially played the Atlanta defense every week and managed 26 points per game. Atlanta is a MUCH better D than Buffalo (right Falcon fan?) The Seahawks put up a 50 burger at Buffalo! Matty Ice, Julio and Roddy get a lot of ESPN highlight time, but they cannot wear a defense down and they are not dominating in terms of putting up points.

The defense is a different story. Atlanta's schedule ranked 10th toughest in the NFL regarding the offensive strength of their opponents. They gave up 19 points per game. That's pretty damn good! Seattle's schedule ranked 15th toughest in the NFL regarding the offensive strength of their opponents. They gave up 15 points per game. The Falcon's D is a lot better than the media coverage portrays. Russell better know that these guys will bait him into a pick or two if he is not razor sharp. He was not razor sharp against Washington, but fortunately their D is not good. The telling match-up here is if the Falcons can stop a true power running game that is mixed in with some option. So far they have not shown a strength against the run. But they do have talent and with a few adjustments they could make things tougher than you might think for the Seahawk's offense.

Calling Ryan and Russell equal and with the exception of White & Jones, I would give the edge to the Seahawks at every other position on the field. And it just so happens that White and Jones go up against Seattle's primary strength of Sherman and Browner. The data says Seattle scores 24 (+/- 2) and Atlanta 17 (+/- 2). But who's to say that Russell doesn't overthrow Baldwin for a an easy TD, or Rice drops an easy 30 yard pass during a key late drive, or Lynch fumbles on the one yard line instead of putting the nail in the coffin? One big play, or non-play can swing this game! But Seattle plays better against quality teams. On an actual NFL surface: Seahawks 27 Atlanta 17.

I can dig it. Nice job.

Bang, that prediction just happened.

Great breakdown of the offense and defensive scoring stats vs. the strength of the opponents. I think this game is going to be pretty close, but I think all of their strengths and weaknesses play to our advantage. I say Hawks win by 4.

31-27

I like that qualifier: "On an actual NFL surface."

I think the surface had a lot to do with last week's passing inefficiencies.

I like stats, but I like my eyes better. The Hawks are capable of winning an a blowout or loosing a close one... I like to think the best be is somewhere in between...

Hawks 28
That other team 20

How does ATL's Special Teams Rank? Do we have advantage in that area ala field position?

Also, would like to think that our run/read option with play action game should chew up clock and keep their offenses off the field

last week I predicted both D's match their scoring averages for a final of 24-14 in Seattle's favor...I'll do the same this week and say 20-14 Seattle.

Atlanta's ST are ranked 20th. They have a good K in Bryant, so their coverage and return teams must be pretty weak. Big advantage Seattle, but then again we just had to sign Longwell.

Our return game is absolutely terrible in Atlanta, but we honestly have some of the best kickoff/punt return coverage in the NFL. Kicking game is solid to great as well. You should look forward to lots of fair catches on Dominique Franks part if he plays - Mike Smith has been considering switching to Harry Douglas, who had a great year as a returner in one of our previous seasons, and if that is to happen, there might actually be some danger to your team. Otherwise, it's smooth sailing.

GoHawks":18zobrln said:

How does ATL's Special Teams Rank? Do we have advantage in that area ala field position?

Also, would like to think that our run/read option with play action game should chew up clock and keep their offenses off the field

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http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-falcons-bl ... ial-teams/

Historical look

Dave Boling ‏@DaveBoling

Stats from 2011 #Seahawk loss to Atl. Julio Jones 11 catches 127 yards. Lynch just 24 rush yards. Possession time: Atl 40:10, Seattle 19:50.

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Good thing the team has changed since that game. Ouch.

drdiags":32uiy04j said:

Historical look

Dave Boling ‏@DaveBoling

Stats from 2011 #Seahawk loss to Atl. Julio Jones 11 catches 127 yards. Lynch just 24 rush yards. Possession time: Atl 40:10, Seattle 19:50.

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Good thing the team has changed since that game. Ouch.

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And if I recall we attempted a 61 yard fg to win the game at the end of regulation?

Yeah I think it could have been a lot closer but a penalty happened or something.

As TechWorlds (Dom) would say: What does Mr. DVOA say?

Last year the Seahawks had Bigby, Hawthorne and Curry trying to cover in the passing game. I think Chancellor, Wagner and Wright will do a much better job.

The Falcons would have lost to the 49ers at least once but probably twice, the Patriots, Packers, Cardinals (with Kolb as they were when we played them week 1), and probably the Rams at least once as well.

This is a team that beat the Bills 15-12 in Buffalo...

SoCalSeahawk":3baj9m33 said:

Atlanta's ST are ranked 20th. They have a good K in Bryant, so their coverage and return teams must be pretty weak. Big advantage Seattle, but then again we just had to sign Longwell.

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Here's a pretty good list of stats for the Falcons

Touchbacks 47%
Bryant is 33 of 38, 86%, long of 55, all 5 misses inside of 50 yards, 4-4 from 50 or longer.
Haven't allowed a blocked FG or punt all season
Haven't returned a KO or Punt for TD
Long of 77 on a KO return by Quizz, averaging 25.7 ypr
Franks has 21 for 163 yards on punt returns, 7.8ypr, long of 24
Opponents have returned 26 for 241 on punt returns, 9.3ypr, 0 TD
Opponents average 22.2 ypr on kickoffs, 0 TD
Bosher has 40.7 net yards per punt
Opponents averaged 44.2 net yards per punt
Opponents have returned 26 punts for 241 yards, 9.3 ypr average


All in all, Atlanta has a decent special teams unit. Bryant is a very good kicker, probably more so indoors at home. Bosher is a solid punter. Of course Atlanta and Seattle are #29 and #30 in total punts(lowest).

The only things that I can spin out of this is the potential of Leon getting some room to run one back. He is likely the only X Factor in the ST phase for both teams...and maybe the rust of Longwell.

lukerguy":16201l2c said:

The Falcons would have lost to the 49ers at least once but probably twice, the Patriots, Packers, Cardinals (with Kolb as they were when we played them week 1), and probably the Rams at least once as well.

This is a team that beat the Bills 15-12 in Buffalo...

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:34853_doh: and the Hawks probably would of lost to the Skins if RG3 was healthy...hmm its like there is no way of knowing

lukerguy":hvcnphp6 said:

The Falcons would have lost to the 49ers at least once but probably twice, the Patriots, Packers, Cardinals (with Kolb as they were when we played them week 1), and probably the Rams at least once as well.

This is a team that beat the Bills 15-12 in Buffalo...

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Is this a joke? We've never scored that low this year, we've never faced the Bills this year, and we can both play the "ifs" game for days. You basically just said we'd lose to every good team we face, despite the fact that we're 4-0 against winning teams this year on our admittedly easy schedule. I could say stuff with ATL's schedule in regards to SEA and it wouldn't make it true...both teams are great in their own ways.

Falcan Moore":ma2h5rky said:

lukerguy":ma2h5rky said:

The Falcons would have lost to the 49ers at least once but probably twice, the Patriots, Packers, Cardinals (with Kolb as they were when we played them week 1), and probably the Rams at least once as well.

This is a team that beat the Bills 15-12 in Buffalo...

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Is this a joke? We've never scored that low this year, we've never faced the Bills this year, and we can both play the "ifs" game for days. You basically just said we'd lose to every good team we face, despite the fact that we're 4-0 against winning teams this year on our admittedly easy schedule. I could say stuff with ATL's schedule in regards to SEA and it wouldn't make it true...both teams are great in their own ways.

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Yes it was...you're a quick one. Your most impressive win of the season was definitely vs. the Broncos. However, even with Peyton having the worst game of his career, they were almost able to come back and win. 2 of those INTs he threw were gift wrapped, over thrown or inaccurate passes.

The fact that you barely beat Arizona with Lindley at QB tells me a lot. Ryan struggles with pressure, and if memory serves you made LS Howling look like Barry Sanders on two of his runs.