It's a pretty fair line. HFA is worth 3 points in the betting market. Being a home team on a Thursday night game is probably worth a couple more points. This line looks like the 49ers would be favored by about 2-3 against the Hawks on a neutral field, which seems fair at this point. If this was a Sunday game, it wouldn't be a 7 point line.
nsport":19ov2f3h said:
The 49ers take a lot more bets in Vegas than Seattle does. Therefore, the number has to be set where Vegas feels they can get a fairly equal number of bettors on either side - that way they take "the vig" no matter who wins. If you could earn 5% on your money every week, you'd do it to. Just good economics.
This is wrong. If you could earn 0 half of the weeks, and 20% on your money the other half of the weeks, that is better economics than earning 5% every week. Also, a fairly equal number of betters doesn't mean a fairly equal amount of money being wagered on each side. A hundred $10 bets on one side have the same impact as one $1000 bet on the other side. Sportsbooks can never assume that they will get an even amount of money on both sides of a given event. Say the MGM or whatever casino actually gets a near even amount of money on both sides throughout the week. Then Floyd Mayweather comes in 30 minutes before kickoff and places a $500,000 bet on one side. Now what? The key to sportsbooks making money consistently is setting accurate lines, which they do. If the lines aren't accurate, the sharp bettors will exploit them and win in the long run.