playoff teams by turnover margin

rottweiler · Dec 5, 2013

I am from the future, and I am sent here to tell you that the two NFL teams who make it to the Super Bowl are both currently among the top 10 teams that get more turnovers than they give.

What do you make of that? (Yeah, right here is the perfect spot for that snappy insult you've been waiting to use; go ahead and throw it down, if you got it.)

Here are those teams, in no specific order:

St. Louis
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Dallas
Seattle
San Francisco
Kansas City
Philadelphia
Chicago
New England

Because there is an obvious dearth of AFC teams in this criterion, here are the next three of them which just miss being in the top 10, in no order:

Indianapolis
Miami
Tennessee

And here are the teams, in order:

NFL turnover margin 2013

For the purposes of this thread, forget about the Denver Broncos.

Given the 10 teams sorted by turnover margin above, who is in the Super Bowl? Who wins it?

I really wanted to make a poll on this, but six options just aren't enough.

hawksfansinceday1 · Dec 5, 2013

Seattle v. New England (cuz Manning sucks in cold weather and Denver sure as hell ain't Phoenix in January).

In the preseason prediction thread I had Seattle v. Cincy but the Ginger has not progressed as I thought he would. The rest of that team is good enough, but so far he hasn't shown it. Now if he goes all Joe Flacco 2012 playoff version where he throws like 13 TDs and zero picks like Flacco did last postseason, then I'll take Cincy against the Hawks because their overall team is stronger than the Pats.

SalishHawkFan · Dec 5, 2013

It'll be us vs the Broncos. Despite not having a high turnover margin, they have a high Toxic Differential, which adds turnover margin to big play margin. What they lack in turnovers, they make up for in big plays. Here are the top ten teams to date in Toxic Differential, in order:

Turnover Differential/Big Play Differential/Toxic Differential

Rank Team TOD BPD TD
1 Seattle Seahawks 12 37 49
2 Philadelphia Eagles 7 27 34
3 San Francisco 49ers 6 19 25
4 Carolina Panthers 10 9 19
5 New Orleans Saints 3 12 15
6 Denver Broncos -4 17 13
7 St. Louis Rams 8 4 12
8 Kansas City Chiefs 14 -3 11
9 Detroit Lions -8 19 11
10 Cincinnati Bengals -1 10 9

Laloosh · Dec 5, 2013

SalishHawkFan":hk4dsi9y said:
It'll be us vs the Broncos. Despite not having a high turnover margin, they have a high Toxic Differential, which adds turnover margin to big play margin. What they lack in turnovers, they make up for in big plays. Here are the top ten teams to date in Toxic Differential, in order:

Turnover Differential/Big Play Differential/Toxic Differential

Rank Team TOD BPD TD
1 Seattle Seahawks 12 37 49
2 Philadelphia Eagles 7 27 34
3 San Francisco 49ers 6 19 25
4 Carolina Panthers 10 9 19
5 New Orleans Saints 3 12 15
6 Denver Broncos -4 17 13
7 St. Louis Rams 8 4 12
8 Kansas City Chiefs 14 -3 11
9 Detroit Lions -8 19 11
10 Cincinnati Bengals -1 10 9

Hey Salish, what's a good resource for learning more about toxic differential?

rottweiler · Dec 5, 2013

hawksfansinceday1":mvirp1fa said:
Seattle v. New England (cuz Manning sucks in cold weather and Denver sure as hell ain't Phoenix in January).

Thaz pretty much what I started thinkin' when I started studying the 2013 turnover margin list, too, yeah.

Good stuff.

E.C. Laloosh":mvirp1fa said:
SalishHawkFan":mvirp1fa said:

It'll be us vs the Broncos. Despite not having a high turnover margin, they have a high Toxic Differential, which adds turnover margin to big play margin. What they lack in turnovers, they make up for in big plays. Here are the top ten teams to date in Toxic Differential, in order:

Turnover Differential/Big Play Differential/Toxic Differential

Rank Team TOD BPD TD
1 Seattle Seahawks 12 37 49
2 Philadelphia Eagles 7 27 34
3 San Francisco 49ers 6 19 25
4 Carolina Panthers 10 9 19
5 New Orleans Saints 3 12 15
6 Denver Broncos -4 17 13
7 St. Louis Rams 8 4 12
8 Kansas City Chiefs 14 -3 11
9 Detroit Lions -8 19 11
10 Cincinnati Bengals -1 10 9

Click to expand...

Hey Salish, what's a good resource for learning more about toxic differential?

Thaz a very good question.

I'm not very familiar with toxic differential, myself.

I just didn't want to be the first one to admit it here.

Scottemojo · Dec 5, 2013

rottweiler":8cmwz39w said:
E.C. Laloosh":8cmwz39w said:

SalishHawkFan":8cmwz39w said:

It'll be us vs the Broncos. Despite not having a high turnover margin, they have a high Toxic Differential, which adds turnover margin to big play margin. What they lack in turnovers, they make up for in big plays. Here are the top ten teams to date in Toxic Differential, in order:

Turnover Differential/Big Play Differential/Toxic Differential

Rank Team TOD BPD TD
1 Seattle Seahawks 12 37 49
2 Philadelphia Eagles 7 27 34
3 San Francisco 49ers 6 19 25
4 Carolina Panthers 10 9 19
5 New Orleans Saints 3 12 15
6 Denver Broncos -4 17 13
7 St. Louis Rams 8 4 12
8 Kansas City Chiefs 14 -3 11
9 Detroit Lions -8 19 11
10 Cincinnati Bengals -1 10 9

Click to expand...

Hey Salish, what's a good resource for learning more about toxic differential?

Click to expand...

Thaz a very good question.

I'm not very familiar with toxic differential, myself.

I just didn't want to be the first one to admit it here.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/toxic-differential/2013/

Scottemojo · Dec 5, 2013

When examining that toxic differential stat, remember also that 6 of our 16 games will be against teams that are top 7 in the statistic. Making the wide gap over those top 7 teams pretty damn impressive.

rottweiler · Dec 5, 2013

Scottemojo":18004e9g said:
When examining that toxic differential stat, remember also that 6 of our 16 games will be against teams that are top 7 in the statistic. Making the wide gap over those top 7 teams pretty damn impressive.

Has this new toxic differential stat started to figure into power rankings yet?

Scottemojo · Dec 5, 2013

rottweiler":dkxlm8y8 said:
Scottemojo":dkxlm8y8 said:

When examining that toxic differential stat, remember also that 6 of our 16 games will be against teams that are top 7 in the statistic. Making the wide gap over those top 7 teams pretty damn impressive.

Click to expand...

Has this new toxic differential stat starting to figure into power rankings yet?

Not that I know of. It's simply a way to measure big play ability while subtracting big mistake making. Explosion versus implosion.

playoff teams by turnover margin

rottweiler

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