The NFL betting thread

Threads like this have been born and withered in the past but I'll do my best to keep it alive, and simple. So if you're betting on the NFL this week, show me what you got?

I always make money over the course of an NFL season and don't know whether that's dumb luck, the fact that the UK are slower to react to trends in the market or it's a sport that genuinely can offer some pretty good value if you're willing to find it.

For example, last week, Thomas Rawls was still trending as the shortest price anytime TD scorer for Seattle as late as Saturday night, despite the fact it was almost nailed on that CMike would be the starter.

Odds of CMike scoring 2 or more touchdowns was 11/1 (Rawls was about 5 or 6/1) and I combined this with four other players to achieve the same feat and staked 10x doubles bets (a double is where two of your legs have to win). £2 on my 10 doubles totalled a £20 stake. It just so happened that one of those other players I'd be on was Todd Gurley (at 17/2) and so that £2 double returned £228. The other guys didn't manage to score two or more touchdowns but having only staked £20, I was more than comfortably up.

Another £5 bet on several touchdown scorers (including Jimmy Graham at 3/1) was a Spencer Ware TD away from returning near £300. For those who didn't see the game last week, Ware was given a touchdown on the field but a replay showed he lost control of the ball inches before breaking the plane whilst diving in, and they ruled it a touchback. That's betting.

Anyway, I'm waiting for the TD scorers market to come out this week but have had a £20 accumulator bet on the following...

Broncos -3 @Bucs, Cowboys -3 @49ers, Saints +7.5 @Chargers and Dolphins to score (by any method) in both halves @Bengals.

Cowboys probably look the most likely to let me down but the reward is over £150 if they all come in.

Anyone else having a flutter? Got any tips, or anything to avoid?

The Rams +8 is enticing. The best bet might be the under in Seattle vs. the Jets. I don't see NYJ scoring more than 13, or Seattle scoring more than 20.

Somerset: How much is the 'vig' in England?

LymonHawk":10s15a7c said:

Somerset: How much is the 'vig' in England?

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Don't think it works like that over here if you're referring to the 'bookmakers cut', they don't get a penny of my winnings. But if you're referring to their 'margins' then it's usually about 0.9-1.2 percent e.g. the Seattle@Jets points line is 40 and anything under or over this is around 10/11 (with some bookmakers offering 5/6 either side).

Good shout nanomoz, hard to see past a low scoring game. Might be worth betting on an adjusted total. As per your guess, I can get 9/4 on under 33.5 points.

I love the Niners +2. Yes I know they suck. But they're coming off two horrible losses and the Boys are coming off a big Sunday Night win.

If I weren't a Hawks fan I'd probably be all over Jets +2.5. All factors point towards Jets covering here. The short line of +2.5 says a lot IMO. If books liked us, they would have made us at least a field goal favorite.

I like Tampa at +3 against Denver. This will be the second straight game Denver has to head out East. Tampa coming off two horrible losses, they'll bounce back.

Baltimore -3.5. Might buy it down to -3 as it is a key number. Tough spot for Oakland making b2b east coast trips. The classic trap spot of a westcoast team playing a 1PM EST game.

I lean Chicago and the points but they are so bad I'll probably just pass.

I rarely bet NFL based on talent and who should win. It's all about the surrounding factors and finding teams in "good spots" and "bad spots." If you bet based on who is better, then just see Arizona @ Buffalo last week.

Rough game for Miami, shut out for three quarters. Bengals always screw me over, whether, for them or against them.

Hawk-Lock":37mhp9n3 said:

I love the Niners +2. Yes I know they suck. But they're coming off two horrible losses and the Boys are coming off a big Sunday Night win.

If I weren't a Hawks fan I'd probably be all over Jets +2.5. All factors point towards Jets covering here. The short line of +2.5 says a lot IMO. If books liked us, they would have made us at least a field goal favorite.

I like Tampa at +3 against Denver. This will be the second straight game Denver has to head out East. Tampa coming off two horrible losses, they'll bounce back.

Baltimore -3.5. Might buy it down to -3 as it is a key number. Tough spot for Oakland making b2b east coast trips. The classic trap spot of a westcoast team playing a 1PM EST game.

I lean Chicago and the points but they are so bad I'll probably just pass.

I rarely bet NFL based on talent and who should win. It's all about the surrounding factors and finding teams in "good spots" and "bad spots." If you bet based on who is better, then just see Arizona @ Buffalo last week.

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Yeah, I think we've a tough game ahead against the Jets but don't like betting against us. The irony is it lessens the blow if we do lose, but if you'd gone against us with the spread for the past few seasons you'd have lost a fair bit of money.

Touchdown scorers and player props out later today, which are my favourite markets. I can get 6/4 on us to win the turnover battle, which is mighty tempting with Pickspatrick's under center.

This is what I'm on so far:

Jets +1
Bears +3.5
Tampa +3.5
Baltimore -3 (-130, bought half pt)
Niners +1.5

Ideally i go 4-1 here and lose on Jets.

Had the Hawks to win the turnover battle combined with adjusted spreads for the Saints, Rams and Titans. Another big profit this week! :irishdrinkers:

If Bell or Beckham score in the next two games I'll be even more thrilled, if both score I'll be ecstatic. Combined them in TD scorer fourfold bets with CMike, Elliott (Dallas) and Freeman (ATL).

I only game I ended up putting money on was the Stealers -3.5 in tonight's game. Looking good thus far as they're up 15-0. I feel filthy dirty rooting for them as I despise the franchise to the core of my being, but the game doesn't affect the Hawks at all so that helps. Besides, as my wife as says "business is business".

Wow I got my butt kicked today. Niners really did me in, went big on them only to watch that 2 TD lead fall apart. No more posting my plays here, last two weeks i posted, last two weeks I got killed. Yeah I'm superstitious. I guess that's what I get though for betting against the Seahawks.