Why I Think Broncos Will Win

First off, let me just say that pretty much everything points to the Panthers dominating the Super Bowl. Denver may have a better defense but it's not like Carolina is a slouch in that department. Carolina's offense is better than the Broncos and their aging Manning. But Manning is actually the reason I think they will win.

Manning has pretty much been a choke artist his whole career, right? Even going back to college, he doesn't show up in the big game. But the important thing is that he has been to the big game. Even more importantly, it wasn't that long ago that he and the rest of the Broncos were punked by the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. That memory is still there and still fresh. They will be ready. I don't see a big game jitters problem for them.

The Panthers, on the other hand, have not. Sure their two playoff games were big, but they weren't Super Bowl big. We saw some signs of them wilting under the pressure during the game against the Seahawks. They also benefited immensely in two straight games from very improbably lucky starts to their games. While they did learn to put the boot on the throat a little better yesterday than they did against Seattle, Palmer practically tied the laces on their boots for them.

Don't get me wrong. Things could certainly go sideways for the Broncos from the beginning too. It's not like it hasn't happened to them before. But I don't think it will. And I think they will be able to keep the pressure on the Panthers and the Panthers will eventually crack under pressure.

P.S. I also think it will help that if there is anything to the "NFL wants X outcome and the officiating reflects it," it will be to having Manning ride off into the sunset as a Super Bowl Champion.

I think Carolina should win and win going away, but then I go back to Super Bowl XL* and the Bettis narrative and I can't help but think that 10 years later in the leagues golden Super Bowl that the same result will happen.

Hasselbeck":3djwzw5j said:

I think Carolina should win and win going away, but then I go back to Super Bowl XL* and the Bettis narrative and I can't help but think that 10 years later in the leagues golden Super Bowl that the same result will happen.

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this^...first thing I thought of when considering reasons for the Broncos to win.

HawkGA":1bqx8c6i said:

P.S. I also think it will help that if there is anything to the "NFL wants X outcome and the officiating reflects it," it will be to having Manning ride off into the sunset as a Super Bowl Champion.

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Not that I want to provide ANY validity in any direction to this line of thinking, but even if stuff like this was true, wouldn't the NFL prefer a "passing of the guard" story line in which a former "best QB" and league MVP in his last moments had to pass the torch to the current MVP and the "future of the league?"

This is the problem IMO with this type of conspiratorial thinking, as just as easily as you can come up with a conspiratorial reason why the league wants a "going out on top" narrative I can come up with a conspiratorial reason why the league wants a "passing of the guard" narrative.

It's all just BS, and there's an easy way to frame it regardless of which outcome occurs. Is the NFL in "safe hands" after Manning retires, or will the young guys have to "wait one more year" as he takes his final lap? It's all BS; they both work equally well.


As for the game, I think the Panthers will win because both teams have good defenses but the Panthers are better in all phases of offense.

I'm also rooting for them b/c they've never won one before, though.

HawkGA":2znvcjif said:

The Panthers, on the other hand, have not. Sure their two playoff games were big, but they weren't Super Bowl big. We saw some signs of them wilting under the pressure during the game against the Seahawks. They also benefited immensely in two straight games from very improbably lucky starts to their games. While they did learn to put the boot on the throat a little better yesterday than they did against Seattle, Palmer practically tied the laces on their boots for them.

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Isn't this what we all thought going into our game with the Panthers? That Cam would revert back to old Cam that threw dumb interceptions and sulked off the field under his towel?

What I saw yesterday in Carolina is what I saw two years ago in Seattle, a super confident team just running around having fun with no sign of pressure whatsoever.

Carolina just has the look right now, and I think they're going to do to Manning what we did to Manning two years ago. Now that Denver D isn't anywhere near as good as this Denver D, so game should be closer. But I still see the Panthers winning going away. That offense is just too physical and dynamic, and Manning and the Bronco offense won't be able to do anything I don't think.

Sgt. Largent":zoqgewcl said:

Isn't this what we all thought going into our game with the Panthers? That Cam would revert back to old Cam that threw dumb interceptions and sulked off the field under his towel?

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Don't get me wrong, I'm not going all Joe Namath and guaranteeing a Broncos win. It's more of a feeling. One thing about the game against the Seahawks, that went so badly for the Seahawks so quickly, I don't think the Panthers were actually tested. To the extent they were in the second half, they largely failed (though they did not completely meltdown into interception-ville). If anything, I think both of these last 2 games give the Panthers a bit of overconfidence.

Popeyejones":35ozqwxh said:

Not that I want to provide ANY validity in any direction to this line of thinking, but even if stuff like this was true, wouldn't the NFL prefer a "passing of the guard" story line in which a former "best QB" and league MVP in his last moments had to pass the torch to the current MVP and the "future of the league?"

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So here's where I come down generally on that line of thinking (not the conspiracy but the preferred narrative). I think people often make mistakes, usually for short-sighted reasons. I think we see this all the time when people talk about how leagues do better when big market teams are in the Super Bowl (or World Series or NBA Finals, or whatever). So I think you're right that a changing of the guard storyline might actually be better. But I don't think that's what the NFL would want (again, not saying they would actually try to influence the game, just what PR people would prefer). The reason is that thye know what they have from a marketing position with Peyton. Cam is an unknown relatively speaking.

The big market thing works the same way. Leagues like to see big rating THIS season. But what they ignore is that by having smaller market teams with a chance to win it all, you gain a greater depth of interest in your sport. This pays dividends over the long run, even if it means lower ratings today. Same thing. Cam will probably pay greater dividends over the long run for the league (aside from the obvious "Peyton is retiring (probably) so there aren't really future dividends there anyway") but I think Peyton makes more bank right now.

Peyton Manning has a chance to win Super Bowl 50?

The League is going to do everything they can to make this happen.

I'm pretty ambivalent about the conspiracy theories and worrying about who the NFL wants to win.

Personallly, I think the NFL's dream game was yesterday, the ever marvelous Brady/Peyton matchup they love. I'm not sure they care much about Manning/Newton. Doesn't have the same panache.

HawkGA":2mx3adb5 said:

So here's where I come down generally on that line of thinking (not the conspiracy but the preferred narrative). I think people often make mistakes, usually for short-sighted reasons. I think we see this all the time when people talk about how leagues do better when big market teams are in the Super Bowl (or World Series or NBA Finals, or whatever). So I think you're right that a changing of the guard storyline might actually be better. But I don't think that's what the NFL would want (again, not saying they would actually try to influence the game, just what PR people would prefer). The reason is that thye know what they have from a marketing position with Peyton. Cam is an unknown relatively speaking.

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The NFL's marketing position with Manning is over with the expiration of the game clock regardless of who wins. He's retiring. It's non-factor.

HawkGA":2mx3adb5 said:

The big market thing works the same way. Leagues like to see big rating THIS season. But what they ignore is that by having smaller market teams with a chance to win it all, you gain a greater depth of interest in your sport. This pays dividends over the long run, even if it means lower ratings today. Same thing. Cam will probably pay greater dividends over the long run for the league (aside from the obvious "Peyton is retiring (probably) so there aren't really future dividends there anyway") but I think Peyton makes more bank right now.

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Neither of them are making the league any money right now, as ad slots for the Super Bowl were sold off way, way before anyone had any idea who was playing in it.

Even if you want to make an argument about future ad sale rates and different teams' abilities to draw in viewership, once you're down to two team which team wins is meaningless.

In terms of the NFL's preferred narrative it basically comes down to four words: Fun, Exciting, Safe, Fair.

All this other narrative stuff matters for talking heads and fans. Luckily for them they're well equipped with cliche narratives regardless of what happens.

sutz":ktmo2jit said:

Personallly, I think the NFL's dream game was yesterday, the ever marvelous Brady/Peyton matchup they love. I'm not sure they care much about Manning/Newton. Doesn't have the same panache.

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Ehh, the Super Bowl is going to be watched by hundreds of millions regardless, and the ad time for it is sold months in advance regardless of who's playing.

Brady/Peyton is MUCH, MUCH more important to ESPN who has to fill up 7 days of airtime while nothing happens than it is to the NFL.

sutz":2pii90g3 said:

I'm pretty ambivalent about the conspiracy theories and worrying about who the NFL wants to win.

Personallly, I think the NFL's dream game was yesterday, the ever marvelous Brady/Peyton matchup they love. I'm not sure they care much about Manning/Newton. Doesn't have the same panache.

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The matchup isn't anywhere near what it used to be, unless Brady getting punched in the mouth and Manning overthrowing dudes all day going three and out 75% of the time is a "dream matchup" for ratings.

Manning will definitely have some sentimental support from most media outlets and fans with no rooting interest. But this ain't a fairy tale, Carolina's D is going to pound him into dust IMO.

Popeyejones":34h89iuo said:

Neither of them are making the league any money right now, as ad slots for the Super Bowl were sold off way, way before anyone had any idea who was playing in it.

Even if you want to make an argument about future ad sale rates and different teams' abilities to draw in viewership, once you're down to two team which team wins is meaningless.

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You don't think general hype and storylines affect the advertising rates they'll be able to charge for next year's Super Bowl?

HawkGA":20amkwz7 said:

Popeyejones":20amkwz7 said:

Neither of them are making the league any money right now, as ad slots for the Super Bowl were sold off way, way before anyone had any idea who was playing in it.

Even if you want to make an argument about future ad sale rates and different teams' abilities to draw in viewership, once you're down to two team which team wins is meaningless.

Click to expand...

You don't think general hype and storylines affect the advertising rates they'll be able to charge for next year's Super Bowl?

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The RATINGS affect the advertising rates, not the hype. The league looks at ratings history over the past 2-3 years, then adds some inflation bump for projected ratings this year................. and there's your spot costs for this year.

The rates and spots are sold far in advance, so how can Manning being in the SB help that?

Now if the game's a blowout and people start turning the station? THAT can affect whether the league and network has to give money back if the ratings weren't what was projected.

So all the league and network really cares about is a good close exciting game, not who's playing.

Trevathan SUCKS ass. Manning sucks ASS, broncos lose.

I don't know. Cam just doesn't impress me as a passer. He just doesn't. The Free Safety for Arizona had an awful day, AW-FUL. And you and I could make that 20 yard post route pass to a wide open receiver with all night in the pocket.

Denver's defense is for real. I can see this one being a fist fight. Denver can generate pressure up the middle with Wolfe, and at times Miller looks unblockable.

Carolina can be run on, too. Arizona's rookie RB had what, 80 yards rushing going into the 3rd quarter, and that's not really what Arizona does.

Thomas Davis is injured, will be playing I guess, but I just see their backups and Shaq (all talk no go) Thompson getting trucked by Denver's RB's.

I was impressed with what Dever did limiting a decent WR corp yesterday of Gronk, Amendola, Edelman, and co. I think they'll take Olson away, Talib will take the next "no name" away, and they'll make Cam make pro passes.

I don't see it happening. I think this will be a lower scoring game, 28-24 or something like it.

If Denver can get over 100 yards rushing and doesn't muff a punt, or throw rando pick sixes, I can see them winning.

I'm hoping Denver wins, ultimately I think they will because I think they have more overall talent than Carolina does.

The Panthers put it to the Cardinals, but talent wise I don't think Arizona is truly in the same class as Denver either. Before this year, everyone considered Michael Floyd as a completely average WR, not truly worth that first round pick. Fitzgerald as old and almost done. Brown as a weapon. Cardinals as a team that couldn't really run the ball. Palmer as an aging above average QB.

On defense their secondary was thought of as a declining PP21, and just average players after that. And a team with no pass rush.


On Sunday, the Panthers made all of those things look true. In the regular season the Cardinals were phenomenal, but yesterday they looked like the team everyone thought they might be.

Coaching can only take you so far....and I think Arians has coached this Cardinal team to as good as they can possibly be. That team just lacks some talent.

For the Panthers, I see some of the same things. The Bronco defense should be able to dominate Carolina's offense.

And on offense, if Denver can protect Peyton, they're going to score points. After Josh Norman the Panthers secondary is just being held together with duct tape. Their front 7 is elite, but so is Denver's.

Whoever pass protects better will win IMO, and I think it'll be Denver.

CHawkTailGator":t1vn26ai said:

I don't know. Cam just doesn't impress me as a passer. He just doesn't. The Free Safety for Arizona had an awful day, AW-FUL. And you and I could make that 20 yard post route pass to a wide open receiver with all night in the pocket.

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Stats don't lie and there's a reason Cam's winning the MVP, dude's had a monster year in both stats and leading his team to 17-1.

IMO the two defenses are equal, but only one offense is playing at a high level, the Panthers. Run game, passing, TE, O-line, Panthers don't have a discernible weakness on either side of the ball.

On the other hand the Broncos offense is average at best, with a QB who has a very hard time against nasty defenses that can beat up his RB's and WR's, like the Hawks did to him two years ago. THIS will be the difference.

CHawkTailGator":tqzggwj1 said:

I don't know. Cam just doesn't impress me as a passer. He just doesn't. The Free Safety for Arizona had an awful day, AW-FUL. And you and I could make that 20 yard post route pass to a wide open receiver with all night in the pocket.

Denver's defense is for real. I can see this one being a fist fight. Denver can generate pressure up the middle with Wolfe, and at times Miller looks unblockable.

Carolina can be run on, too. Arizona's rookie RB had what, 80 yards rushing going into the 3rd quarter, and that's not really what Arizona does.

Thomas Davis is injured, will be playing I guess, but I just see their backups and Shaq (all talk no go) Thompson getting trucked by Denver's RB's.

I was impressed with what Dever did limiting a decent WR corp yesterday of Gronk, Amendola, Edelman, and co. I think they'll take Olson away, Talib will take the next "no name" away, and they'll make Cam make pro passes.

I don't see it happening. I think this will be a lower scoring game, 28-24 or something like it.

If Denver can get over 100 yards rushing and doesn't muff a punt, or throw rando pick sixes, I can see them winning.

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Shaq is a bad word here now I know, but he had a great rookie year. Better than Davis as a rookie, despite missing multiple games, missing much of the offseason, and being so young.

Fitzgerald's name wasn't called much yesterday and Shaq deserves a lot of credit for that.

CHawkTailGator":2fr4wk8z said:

I don't know. Cam just doesn't impress me as a passer. He just doesn't. The Free Safety for Arizona had an awful day, AW-FUL. And you and I could make that 20 yard post route pass to a wide open receiver with all night in the pocket.

Denver's defense is for real. I can see this one being a fist fight. Denver can generate pressure up the middle with Wolfe, and at times Miller looks unblockable.

Carolina can be run on, too. Arizona's rookie RB had what, 80 yards rushing going into the 3rd quarter, and that's not really what Arizona does.

Thomas Davis is injured, will be playing I guess, but I just see their backups and Shaq (all talk no go) Thompson getting trucked by Denver's RB's.

I was impressed with what Dever did limiting a decent WR corp yesterday of Gronk, Amendola, Edelman, and co. I think they'll take Olson away, Talib will take the next "no name" away, and they'll make Cam make pro passes.

I don't see it happening. I think this will be a lower scoring game, 28-24 or something like it.

If Denver can get over 100 yards rushing and doesn't muff a punt, or throw rando pick sixes, I can see them winning.

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Denver has no running game. It's laughable you think their RB's are suddenly going to run over one of the leagues best run defenses.

If Denver wins the SB it will be how they've won all year - ugly on offense, lights out on defense and the refs swallowing the whistle when it counts (*cough* Gronk getting stripped down in the back of the end zone and held all day *cough*)