NFC West Playoff Picture: Week 15 and Beyond

Now that week fourteen is done with MNF, I can now present the entire NFC Playoff Picture. I won't post that here, but I will post what's really relevant to Seattle, namely Seattle and her division mates for Week 15 and beyond.

The current NFC Seeds are #1 Seattle (11-2, NFCW), #2 New Orleans (10-3, NFCS), #3 Philly (8-5, NFCE), #4 Detroit (7-6, NFCN), #5 Carolina (9-4, NFCS), #6 San Fran (9-4, NFCW....loses to Carolina head to head).

The teams still alive in the NFC are Arizona (8-5, NFCW), Green Bay (6-6-1, NFCN), Chicago (7-6, NFCN), Dallas (7-6, NFCE)

The teams, clinches, and playoff scenarios I will deal with hear are Seattle, San Fransisco, and Arizona from the NFCW.

Seattle's last three opponents are @NYG, Arizona, St Louis
San Fransisco's last three opponents are @TB, Atlanta, @Arizona
Arizona's last three opponents are @Tenn, @Sea, San Fran

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Seattle (11-2, Div 3-1, Conference 8-1) Current Seed: #1, First in NFCW

In Week 15, the following clinching senarios apply to Seattle:

1. Seattle clinches Home Field with:

SEA Win or Tie + San Fran Loss + Saints Loss

*OR*

Sea Win + San Fran Loss or tie + Saints Loss or Tie

2. Seattle clinches the #2 seed or better (and NFCW Crown) with:

Sea Win or Tie + San Fran Loss *OR* Sea win + San Fran loss or tie

Seattle has clinched a playoff berth already and can not be eliminated.

Seattle assures itself of a #5 seed with one more win since only Carolina or New Orleans can tie Seattle with 12 wins as a wildcard and Seattle owns the tie break on both.

Seattle can not be the #4 seed since seattle has more wins than any possible team in the NFCN.

Seattle can only become the #3 seed by losing out and clinching the division with two San Fransisco losses. This can not happen in Week 15 (obviously)

Seattle can only become the #2 seed if Seattle clinches the division by way of at least one San Fran loss and by having the NFCS Champion finish with a better record. If the Saints lose any one game, Seattle can not be the #2 seed.

My estimation of the various seeds and scenarios for Seattle:

Seattle clinches HFA in Week 15: I would estimate the chance of this happening to be 5% or less. While I think Seattle will win easily, both San Fran (@TB) and New Orleams (@Rams) will be heavy favorites. Of the two, I would guess a Saints loss to be likelier than a Niner loss.

Seattle wins HFA overall: Seattle only has to win twice, and I estimate that this alone will probably happen better than 90% of the time (and that's likely conservative given the schedule). Add the small chance that San Fran and Saints might help and it's probably 95%+

Moving onto San Fransisco......

San Fransisco (9-4, Div 4-1, Conference 6-3) Currently #6 Seed, #2 NFCW

In Week 15, the following Scenario Applies to San Fransisco:

San Fran clinches a playoff berth with:

San Fran win + Arizona Loss + (Dallas Loss OR Philly Loss) Why? An Arizona loss means that the best Arizona could do is tie with San Fran and Arizona automatically loses any divisional record tiebreak with San Fran. A Dallas loss insures that either Philly wins the NFCE Crown or has fewer than 10 wins. Likewise a Philly loss will insure that any 10 win NFCE team wins the NFCE championship and any runner up will have less ten wins.

San Fran can not be eliminated from the playoffs in Week 15. San Fran can't clinch any seed other than #6 (qualify see above).

To be eliminated from the playoffs, San Fransisco would have to lose at least 2 of their last three, and Arizona and Philly OR Dallas would have to win out. Otherwise San Fran would have to lose out, and Arizona OR the NFCE second place team would have to finish with at least 10 wins.

For San Fran to get the #5 seed, they have to finish with a better record than either Carolina or New Orleans (since San Fran loses the tiebreak for both), or for the second place NFCS team to miss the playoffs entirely (which would mean losing at least 2-3 for Carolina or losing out for New Orleans), and for another team (like Arizona) to sneak in as the #6 seed. The likeliest candidate would be Arizona on a head to head tiebreak with Carolina.

For San Fransico to win the division, they have to win at least as many games as seattle (which currently means winning at least two of their last three...and if Seattle wins any game, it would require winning out). If Seattle wins two games or more, than San Fran is eliminate from the division race and seeds 1-4. That means that to win the Divison San Fran has to end the season with at least 11 wins and probably 12.

That being so:

San Fran can not get the #4 seed. The minimum number of wins to win the division is more than any possible win-loss for any NFCN team.

San Fran can only get the #3 seed if they win the division with two wins (which would require Seattle to lose out) [giving San Fran a conference record of 8-4], Philly wins out tying San Fran but having a better conference record (10-2), and New Orleans or Carolina either wins with a 12 or 13 win record (which would give the NFCS Champ the #1 seed), or New Orleans/Carolina forms a three way tie at 11-5 in which case the Eagles would get the #1 seed with a better conference record, and the NFCS Champ would get the #2 seed due to head to head vs San Fran.

San Fran would get the #2 seed if they win the division (which again requires at least two more wins) and a philly loss but the NFCS champ has an equal or better record than San Fran (minimum 11-5 for this scenario) OR if San Fran wins the divisiion with 12 wins (the liklier scenario) but the NFCS champ has at least 12 wins. Unlike Seattle, San Fran loses all tiebreaks to the two NFC South teams.

Finally for San Fran to get the #1 seed (yes it is possible) would require San Fran to win the division with a better record than both Philly and the eventual NFCS Champion.

Given what I've said regarding Seattle, I would rate San Fran's chance of winning the division at about five percent. That makes the scenarios for seeds 1-3 to all be extremely unlikely. The likeliest IMO is the scenario for the #2 seed which I'd rate at between 1-2%

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Finally Arizona.......

Arizona (8-5, Div 1-3, Conference 5-5) Currently Outside looking in (#7 seed), #3 in NFCW

Because of Arizona's three division losses, Arizona loses all tiebreaks with San Fran. It also looses the head to head tiebreak with Philly, but wins the head to head tiebreak with Carolina.

Because of the tiebreak with Carolina, there are no week 15 scarios that either clinch for Arizona or eliminate them from the playoffs. However Arizona's playoff chances are on life-support.

Because Arizona can not win the division (it was eliminated from the division when Seattle automatically qualified for the playoffs in week 13), Arizona can not earn seeds 1-4.

If Arizona loses any two games and Carolina wins at least one game, then Arizona is eliminated. That's because Arizona would have a maximum of 9 wins but would lose any tiebreak to San Fran for the last wildcard spot.

Essentially the short version is that as soon as New Orleans, Carolina, and San Fran all clinch a playoff berth, Arizona is eliminated since all possible wildcard slots will be accounted for. That means any clinching scenario for New Orleans (need one win), Carolina, or San Fran (see above) is automatically bad for Arizona.

I hope everyone found this useful.

Good break down.

What scenarios would have that SF @ AZ become a win and in game??

Also, can SF and AZ BOTH make the Wild Card??

Lions arent playing well.. I think Green Bay with Rodgers coming back will pass them and win the NFC North. Who would people rather play in our first playoff game.. Green Bay, Philly, or SF? SF is the hardest I think wed crush any of them.

salukihawk12":23fygazw said:

What scenarios would have that SF @ AZ become a win and in game??

Also, can SF and AZ BOTH make the Wild Card??

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Second Question first: Can SF and AZ make the Wildcard?

Yes. Arizona would have to win 2 out of 3 minimum ending with a 10-6 record including a win vs San Fran. San Fran would have to win at least one more game than Carolina. Finally Carolina would have to finish with a record no better than Arizona.

So for example if Carolina were to finish 10-6, Arizona were to finish 10-6 and San Fran were to win out [but Seattle takes the division], then San Fran would take the #5 seed, and Arizona and Carolina would be tied for the final seed, but Arizona would get it on the head to head tiebreak.

Can SF @AZ be a play-in game (win and in)? Yes in a couple of ways.

The more unlikely (but interesting way) happens if Seattle stumbles a bit. If Arizona goes into the final week at 10-5 and San Fran has also stumbled once and is coming into the game at 10-5, but Seattle has lost out (finishing the season at 11-5) and finally if Carolina has finished the Season at 11-5, then you have a very intriguing scenario.

If San Fran wins the final game, they are division champions of the NFCW. If San Fran loses they are out. Why? A San Fran loss would end the season at 10-6 and Arizona and Carolina would both finish at 11-5 for the wildcard spots (with Arizona taking the #5 seed). Seattle would back into the Division title (beating Arizona by Division record tie-break correction: Sea's and Ari division records would be tied at 3-3. Sea gets the nod because of conference record 8-4 vs 7-5).

The more standard way is if Arizona loses no more than one game going into the final game. Let's say Arizona wins their next two and goes into the final game with a record of 10-5. Let's say that San Fran also goes into final game at 10-5 (which means they go 1-1 their next two...hardly impossible), and finally let's assume Carolina finishes the season at 11-5. We also will assume that Seattle won @NYG and StL finishing the season 13-3 and out of the wildcard picture.

In this case, SF@AZ is win and in/lose and out for a wildcard spot. If San Fran wins, San Fran finishes 11-5 and takes the #6 Seed (Carolina takes #5 by way of tie-break). If Arizona wins, then both Arizona and Carolina finish 11-5 and a 10-6 San Fran would be on the outside looking in. In this case Arizona would take the #5 while Carolina would take #6.

Vetamur":2al5u3pk said:

Lions arent playing well.. I think Green Bay with Rodgers coming back will pass them and win the NFC North. Who would people rather play in our first playoff game.. Green Bay, Philly, or SF? SF is the hardest I think wed crush any of them.

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Given that Carolina and San Fran will almost surely be the wildcards at this point, I don't think we'll have to worry about either the lions or packers (or eagles/cowboys oh my!)

Vetamur":3ucb91eg said:

Lions arent playing well.. I think Green Bay with Rodgers coming back will pass them and win the NFC North. Who would people rather play in our first playoff game.. Green Bay, Philly, or SF? SF is the hardest I think wed crush any of them.

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They are reporting today that Flynn will start this weekend, so I don't think GB has a chance.

Flynn has tied one, won one, and lost a horrible one. GB isn't out yet and Rodgers is close. If GB plays the Niners in the Wildcard round I think they'd have a chance.

Thanks, OP. Nice job

I'll add: Seahawks clinch NFC championship if 12 th man.

Seahawks win SuperBowl if Russell Wilson.

Props to Polaris. Great read

It is too bad that we don't play Arizona in week 17, with the SF-Arizona taking place in week 16.

One could easily imagine a scenario where Seattle sits its starters, having already clinched HFA, giving Arizona the wildcard spot over San Fran.

Basically we just need to win 2 of the last 3 games. The rest will sort itself out.

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I figure we keep it simple and win two more times preferably against the Giants then the Cardinals. I know it's boring and obvious but riddle me this..you think it's not happening or something? Seriously the Giants and Arizona it's almost as stupid as Tampa Bay and Atlanta for San Francisco.

Just to make it easy for the learning impaired..

1. Seattle 14-2
2. San Francisco 12-4 (too bad NOLA and Carolina hold the tiebreakers)
3. Arizona 9-7
4. St. Louis....be happy it isn't 2014 given you can thank Daniel Snyder for our actual rival going forward.

Vetamur":3m2u9m4k said:

Flynn has tied one, won one, and lost a horrible one. GB isn't out yet and Rodgers is close. If GB plays the Niners in the Wildcard round I think they'd have a chance.

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I don't think Dom Capers has learned how to defend the Pistol and Read-option.

Well..he hadnt in week one.. but a lot of teams have given him a blueprint since then. You may be right though.