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 Post subject: Wilson's uniform is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:10 pm 
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kinda :lol:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/ ... is-showing

Quote:
Wilson became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to finish a game with at least one touchdown pass, three rushing touchdowns and 90 yards rushing. The Pro Football Hall of Fame recognized the performance by acquiring Wilson's game uniform for display in Canton.


The first of many game uniforms contributed.

And does this stat make QBR legit?

Quote:
Teams with the higher Total QBR scores posted a 16-0 record in Week 15.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:14 pm 
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Quote:
And does this stat make QBR legit?


Many will start to think so because it favors us.

Same reason people around here all of a sudden like Colin Cowerd and Mike+Mike.

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:16 pm 
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Basis4day wrote:
Quote:
And does this stat make QBR legit?


Many will start to think so because it favors us.

Same reason people around here all of a sudden like Colin Cowerd and Mike+Mike.


As long as it calls Russell Wilson good and the Cardinals QB bad, I'm on board! :D


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:16 pm 
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hawksfan515 wrote:
kinda :lol:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/ ... is-showing

Quote:
Wilson became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to finish a game with at least one touchdown pass, three rushing touchdowns and 90 yards rushing. The Pro Football Hall of Fame recognized the performance by acquiring Wilson's game uniform for display in Canton.



Quote:


Holey shit... that means that the Wolf Grays are going to be on display in the HOF... very cool.

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Last edited by onanygivensunday on Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:17 pm 
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Him and RG3 are both "in the hall" this season for game efforts; pretty cool stuff.

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:17 pm 
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Amazing!

I think the Total QBR is a very valid metric. There are times when it doesn't show a QB's contribution to a game but I think it's just a little better than the traditional passer rating, especially now with running quarterbacks. There is no perfect metric, of course.

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:23 pm 
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LawHawk wrote:
Amazing!

I think the Total QBR is a very valid metric. There are times when it doesn't show a QB's contribution to a game but I think it's just a little better than the traditional passer rating, especially now with running quarterbacks. There is no perfect metric, of course.


The running QB's thing is spot on. And something that bugged me about QBR....

You complete 5 passes for 5 yards.

You complete 2 out of 5 passes for 10 yards.

Which one is rated higher? The first one. Which one is more valuable? The 2nd, because the production is doubled!


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:28 pm 
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Basis4day wrote:
Quote:
And does this stat make QBR legit?


Many will start to think so because it favors us.

Same reason people around here all of a sudden like Colin Cowerd and Mike+Mike.


The best thing with a bandwagon is the ability to get off and on whenever you want too :)

I always like Cowherd just glad he is agreeing with me these days!


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:31 pm 
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hawksfan515 wrote:
LawHawk wrote:
Amazing!

I think the Total QBR is a very valid metric. There are times when it doesn't show a QB's contribution to a game but I think it's just a little better than the traditional passer rating, especially now with running quarterbacks. There is no perfect metric, of course.


The running QB's thing is spot on. And something that bugged me about QBR....

You complete 5 passes for 5 yards.

You complete 2 out of 5 passes for 10 yards.

Which one is rated higher? The first one. Which one is more valuable? The 2nd, because the production is doubled!


As I understand it, the QBR is not looking at the absolute value of yardage gained. Those 5 of 5 passes for 5 yards may have resulted in 4 first downs and 1 TD, and in theory that 2 of 5 passes for 10 yards may have been on 3rd and longs that did not result in first downs. The context is important...and as I understand it, the QBR is trying to put that context in their complex formula.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:32 pm 
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HunnyBadger wrote:
hawksfan515 wrote:
LawHawk wrote:
Amazing!

I think the Total QBR is a very valid metric. There are times when it doesn't show a QB's contribution to a game but I think it's just a little better than the traditional passer rating, especially now with running quarterbacks. There is no perfect metric, of course.


The running QB's thing is spot on. And something that bugged me about QBR....

You complete 5 passes for 5 yards.

You complete 2 out of 5 passes for 10 yards.

Which one is rated higher? The first one. Which one is more valuable? The 2nd, because the production is doubled!


As I understand it, the QBR is not looking at the absolute value of yardage gained. Those 5 of 5 passes for 5 yards may have resulted in 4 first downs and 1 TD, and in theory that 2 of 5 passes for 10 yards may have been on 3rd and longs that did not result in first downs. The context is important...and as I understand it, the QBR is trying to put that context in their complex formula.


Well yeah.... lol

I just don't like passer rating. Anything other than that godawful rating.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:36 pm 
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I'll still take DVOA over anything else. ESPN's tQBR is a half @$$ed attempt at DVOA.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:39 pm 
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Navyhawkfan187 wrote:
I'll still take DVOA over anything else. ESPN's tQBR is a half @$$ed attempt at DVOA.


At least QBR knows when it's a blowout. DVOA still doesn't know when to count stats as more valuable because it's a blowout or in OT, I'm pretty sure.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:40 pm 
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QBR doesn't penalize certain things enough. I mean, 85 for Kaepernick when he fumbled the ball 4 times and had an interception? None of those fumbles went to the Patriots, but that's luck, more than anything. He deserves to be penalized for that. 216 yards passing, too; not like he lit it up, there. Did have 4 passing TDs, though.

Either way, as Navyhawk said, DVOA > all. Nothing else is its equal or better.

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:43 pm 
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RolandDeschain wrote:
QBR doesn't penalize certain things enough. I mean, 85 for Kaepernick when he fumbled the ball 4 times and had an interception? None of those fumbles went to the Patriots, but that's luck, more than anything. He deserves to be penalized for that. 216 yards passing, too; not like he lit it up, there. Did have 4 passing TDs, though.

Either way, as Navyhawk said, DVOA > all. Nothing else is its equal or better.


They should add some elements that QBR has. I love how it has opponent adjustments for one, but it needs to start devaluing play when it's a blowout. They put Wilson at #7 because he had poor completions in the red zone, but most of those were in the blowout, and should be devalued like QBR did to them.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's uniform is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:47 pm 
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Changed the header from the bait and switch 515 originally posted.

:141847_bnono:

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:48 pm 
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I know it's way too early to get carried away but these last few weeks it has started to feel like we're witnessing the
rookie season of a Hall of Fame career.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's uniform is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:49 pm 
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The Radish wrote:
Changed the header from the bait and switch 515 originally posted.

:141847_bnono:


sorry... thought it was alright cause it's like impossible Wilson can be in the HOF, but I won't do it again. My bad.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:58 pm 
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hawksfan515 wrote:
They should add some elements that QBR has. I love how it has opponent adjustments for one,

Huh? DVOA already does this. Heavily.

hawksfan515 wrote:
but it needs to start devaluing play when it's a blowout. They put Wilson at #7 because he had poor completions in the red zone, but most of those were in the blowout, and should be devalued like QBR did to them.

DVOA also already does this. I suggest you read the basic guide on how DVOA is calculated: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:17 pm 
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RolandDeschain wrote:
hawksfan515 wrote:
They should add some elements that QBR has. I love how it has opponent adjustments for one,

Huh? DVOA already does this. Heavily.

hawksfan515 wrote:
but it needs to start devaluing play when it's a blowout. They put Wilson at #7 because he had poor completions in the red zone, but most of those were in the blowout, and should be devalued like QBR did to them.

DVOA also already does this. I suggest you read the basic guide on how DVOA is calculated: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods


well look at that. I assumed they didn't. Thanks for clearing that up Roland.

And yeah, since DVOA puts in the opponent adjustments, it does put them over the top. One of QBR's bigger problems IMO.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's uniform is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:30 pm 
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hawksfan515 wrote:
And does this stat make QBR legit?

Quote:
Teams with the higher Total QBR scores posted a 16-0 record in Week 15.


No.

Navyhawkfan187 wrote:
I'll still take DVOA over anything else. ESPN's tQBR is a half @$$ed attempt at DVOA.


Ditto. ANYA is a good pure passing stat as well.

QBR has good intentions, but miserable in execution. It seems like every week you see a QBR score that is WILDLY at odds with reality. I strongly suspect judges bias is the reason for it's flaws. It's a stat without empirical accountability. At least DVOA is based on data. QBR is based on whether or not to blame the WR for a drop and other contextual things that are decided by the scorer- which is made worse by the fact that it's very unlikely that the same strike zone is being applied to every player (different people charting).

In short, there are a lot of subjective judgement calls in the stat. PFF is a very strong comparison but PFF's stats are accurate more often. UZR is a bit of a subjective tracking stat in baseball and stat geeks never tire of bashing it for not being empirical enough.

Really, there is no stat that perfectly captures football. It's a sad, cold hard fact. I have a ton of respect for guys like Aaron Schatz and Brian Burke, but I still remember when one of them was on a serious campaign to anoint Jason Campbell as a secretly great QB. That's not a rip on him, just a warning that even the best empirical process can lead one astray in a sport as integrated as football.

I generally trust the stats that back up the eyeball test the best, knowing that they still aren't perfect and there will always be information left out of any stat. All I ask is that a stat indicates a good score when a QB was obviously good and a bad score when a QB was obviously bad. Maybe over a whole season, QBR's flaws iron out and it's decent, but game to game it's been a joke at times this season.


Last edited by kearly on Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:53 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:43 pm 
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Basis4day wrote:
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And does this stat make QBR legit?


Many will start to think so because it favors us.

Same reason people around here all of a sudden like Colin Cowerd and Mike+Mike.


Your wrong there buster, still can't stand that sniveling Cowerd. I just can't get there from here.

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's uniform is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:46 pm 
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I love the lack of logic.

We scored 108 points in 2 games so our red zone game has problems?

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's uniform is in the hall of fame
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:53 pm 
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kearly wrote:
hawksfan515 wrote:
And does this stat make QBR legit?

Quote:
Teams with the higher Total QBR scores posted a 16-0 record in Week 15.


No.

Navyhawkfan187 wrote:
I'll still take DVOA over anything else. ESPN's tQBR is a half @$$ed attempt at DVOA.


Ditto. ANYA is a good pure passing stat as well.

QBR has good intentions, but miserable in execution. It seems like every week you see a QBR score that is WILDLY at odds with reality. I strongly suspect judges bias is the reason for it's flaws. It's a stat without empirical accountability. At least DVOA is based on data. QBR is based on whether or not to blame the WR for a drop and other contextual things that are decided by the scorer- which is made worse by the fact that it's very unlikely that the same strike zone is being applied to every player (different people charting).

In short, there are a lot of subjective judgement calls in the stat. PFF is a very strong comparison but PFF's stats are accurate more often. UZR is a bit of a subjective tracking stat in baseball and stat geeks never tire of bashing it for not being empirical enough.

Really, there is no stat that perfectly captures football. It's a sad, cold hard fact. I generally trust the stats that back up the eyeball test the best, knowing that they still aren't perfect and there will always be information left out of any stat. All I ask is that a stat indicates a good score when a QB was obviously good and a bad score when a QB was obviously bad. Maybe over a whole season, QBR's flaws iron out and it's decent, but game to game it's been a joke at times this season.


I'm gonna assume that Kaepernick is really the guy who has insane QBR scores for you. It is for me a least. He fumbles the ball 4 times and still has an 89 QBR? OK......

BTW what do you think of Kaepernick Kearly?


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