Toxic Differential

Anybody know what it is for the season and where the Hawks rank?

Assuming this is current:
1. Panthers
2. Seahawks
3. Bengals
4. Steelers
5. Bills

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats ... tial/2015/

Gear oil?

SeahawksBMX":20reyq5s said:

Assuming this is current:
1. Panthers
2. Seahawks
3. Bengals
4. Steelers
5. Bills

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats ... tial/2015/

Click to expand...

Thank you.

The huge missing piece from Toxic Differential is 3rd down conversion rate. A couple 3 and outs in a row have a similar impact to a turnover. So while we won the turnover ratio, we had a lot of 3 and outs earlier in the season. Now, we're converting many more 3rd downs. From looking at box scores, in ALL our losses the opponent had a better 3rd down conversion percentage. Green Bay, Cincinnati, Carolina, Arizona--all of them smoked us in 3rd down percentage. So did St. Louis even.

olyfan63":3pzea9mz said:

The huge missing piece from Toxic Differential is 3rd down conversion rate. A couple 3 and outs in a row have a similar impact to a turnover. So while we won the turnover ratio, we had a lot of 3 and outs earlier in the season. Now, we're converting many more 3rd downs. From looking at box scores, in ALL our losses the opponent had a better 3rd down conversion percentage. Green Bay, Cincinnati, Carolina, Arizona--all of them smoked us in 3rd down percentage. So did St. Louis even.

Click to expand...

Agree completely. Any drive that doesn't score turns the ball over to the other team on a punt. A 3 and out can be demoralizing more so than an interception or fumble since it casts doubt on the entire offense's ability to move the ball and prevents momentum. In that regard, we had a lot of turnovers in the first 1/2 of the season.

If, at the end of several of those games, we had simply converted one 3rd down on our last drive, we'd have won as we could have run out the clock.

Ad Hawk":3n7dmiev said:

olyfan63":3n7dmiev said:

The huge missing piece from Toxic Differential is 3rd down conversion rate. A couple 3 and outs in a row have a similar impact to a turnover. So while we won the turnover ratio, we had a lot of 3 and outs earlier in the season. Now, we're converting many more 3rd downs. From looking at box scores, in ALL our losses the opponent had a better 3rd down conversion percentage. Green Bay, Cincinnati, Carolina, Arizona--all of them smoked us in 3rd down percentage. So did St. Louis even.

Click to expand...

Agree completely. Any drive that doesn't score turns the ball over to the other team on a punt. A 3 and out can be demoralizing more so than an interception or fumble since it casts doubt on the entire offense's ability to move the ball and prevents momentum. In that regard, we had a lot of turnovers in the first 1/2 of the season.

If, at the end of several of those games, we had simply converted one 3rd down on our last drive, we'd have won as we could have run out the clock.

Click to expand...

Maybe add punt differential to the equation? Actually sounds good, as your final statement is right on IMHO. If one team is punting and the other team is scoring, guess who is likely winning?

Trying to factor punts in results in too many variables and too little information.
3rd down conversions keep drives alive. I suppose 3rd/4th down conversions could be lumped together.
Pittsburgh was 5/12 on 3rd/4th down conversions while Seattle was 7/13. So the 'Hawks won that one AND the game.
When we needed a big 3rd down conversion, we got the Baldwin 80 yard TD off a short pass.

These are just indicators of symptoms. But fix the 3rd down woes, fix the broken offense that can't convert these, and Seattle goes on a run. And so they have.