olyfan63":3n7dmiev said:
The huge missing piece from Toxic Differential is 3rd down conversion rate. A couple 3 and outs in a row have a similar impact to a turnover. So while we won the turnover ratio, we had a lot of 3 and outs earlier in the season. Now, we're converting many more 3rd downs. From looking at box scores, in ALL our losses the opponent had a better 3rd down conversion percentage. Green Bay, Cincinnati, Carolina, Arizona--all of them smoked us in 3rd down percentage. So did St. Louis even.
Agree completely. Any drive that doesn't score turns the ball over to the other team on a punt. A 3 and out can be demoralizing more so than an interception or fumble since it casts doubt on the entire offense's ability to move the ball and prevents momentum. In that regard, we had a
lot of turnovers in the first 1/2 of the season.
If, at the end of several of those games, we had simply converted one 3rd down on our last drive, we'd have won as we could have run out the clock.