Alright, so most of you have probably heard terms like "explosive plays" or "big plays" thrown around here and there. Some of you probably know of and have read about "toxic differential". Seattle has been pretty amazing in both categories over the past few seasons so in case you have not, here are some explanations.
Big Plays:
Toxic Differential:
Now that we have that out of the way, let's look at some statistics (past and present).
Big Play Differential:
Seattle has been 3rd, 2nd and 1st respectively in 2012, 2013 and 2014 in big play differential. Just to put into perspective just how good in 2014, Seattle was 1st with a 66 in big play differential. 2nd place was Denver with 48 and the next best team was Baltimore at 26. That's a BIG difference.
In 2015, Seattle is currently tied for 2nd in Big Play Diff with Cincinnati. Only the NY Jets being better at 14.
The big reason for Seattle not leading in this category, is Seattle's Big Pass Play Diff of -1. In all of 2014, Seattle gave up 14 pass plays of 25+ yards. So far in 2015, they've already given up 12! You know what else? 7/12 have come in the 4th quarter and 6 of those occurred while Seattle was leading...
Toxic Differential:
Seattle has dominated the toxic differential stat over the previous two seasons. Just to give an example, in 2014, Denver was second with a TD of 53 and 3rd was Green Bay with a 37. It's obscene how well our team did with regard to big play and turnover differentials in both seasons.
In any case, this time of year you can expect the majority of toxic differential to come from big play differential as most teams won't have a very large turnover differential by comparison. This season, our big play differential is hurting us due to the number of big passing plays as well as having given the ball away seven times this season (only 14 times all of last year).
Summary:
We're still in the first half of the season but the fact that we have given up more big pass plays than we have had, is a very bad sign of things to come if this defense can't turn it around. The biggest concern for me, is that the majority of these plays come in the 4th quarter while leading the game and we shouldn't be letting anybody get behind us.
I do find it reassuring that we are still in the top 5 in both categories and that preventing those big pass plays that we're usually so good about, would put is into 1st in both. Stop giving up big drives in the 4th quarter and we could be looking at another 9-10 win run because that's been the difference in all but one of our games so far.
Anyway, just something to look at if you had five minutes to kill.
Big Plays:
Toxic Differential:
Now that we have that out of the way, let's look at some statistics (past and present).
Big Play Differential:
Seattle has been 3rd, 2nd and 1st respectively in 2012, 2013 and 2014 in big play differential. Just to put into perspective just how good in 2014, Seattle was 1st with a 66 in big play differential. 2nd place was Denver with 48 and the next best team was Baltimore at 26. That's a BIG difference.
In 2015, Seattle is currently tied for 2nd in Big Play Diff with Cincinnati. Only the NY Jets being better at 14.
The big reason for Seattle not leading in this category, is Seattle's Big Pass Play Diff of -1. In all of 2014, Seattle gave up 14 pass plays of 25+ yards. So far in 2015, they've already given up 12! You know what else? 7/12 have come in the 4th quarter and 6 of those occurred while Seattle was leading...
Toxic Differential:
Seattle has dominated the toxic differential stat over the previous two seasons. Just to give an example, in 2014, Denver was second with a TD of 53 and 3rd was Green Bay with a 37. It's obscene how well our team did with regard to big play and turnover differentials in both seasons.
In any case, this time of year you can expect the majority of toxic differential to come from big play differential as most teams won't have a very large turnover differential by comparison. This season, our big play differential is hurting us due to the number of big passing plays as well as having given the ball away seven times this season (only 14 times all of last year).
Summary:
We're still in the first half of the season but the fact that we have given up more big pass plays than we have had, is a very bad sign of things to come if this defense can't turn it around. The biggest concern for me, is that the majority of these plays come in the 4th quarter while leading the game and we shouldn't be letting anybody get behind us.
I do find it reassuring that we are still in the top 5 in both categories and that preventing those big pass plays that we're usually so good about, would put is into 1st in both. Stop giving up big drives in the 4th quarter and we could be looking at another 9-10 win run because that's been the difference in all but one of our games so far.
Anyway, just something to look at if you had five minutes to kill.
