WTF!?!… Seahawks now 1.5 point underdogs…

[jammerhawk]

Home teams usually have a 3 point spread advantage.

This is nothing more than Vegas (sports books) trying to spread their risk.

Besides recent history is on the Rams side.

Time to even things up.

31-27 Seahawks take the W.

 

[evergreen]

The mediots spread their narrative. The viewers hear it and make bets. So there is a connection, just not a direct one.

 

[flv2]

The handicap line is pretty much a mathematical by-product of the money line and totals market. In a close match-up a 1 point win for either side is about a 2.2% probability. A 2 point win is about a 1.8% probability. If it's 50-50 there's no handicap. If 1 side is a 51-49 favourite the line will be -1 to make it 49-49 with the remaining 2% a Push. If 1 side is a 52-48 favourite the line will be -1.5 to make it 50-50. If 1 side is a 53-47 favourite the line will be -2 to make it 49-49 with the remaining 2% a Push. The probability of a 3 point victory is over 8% so beyond 54-46 there's a wide-ranging +108, -128 through to -128, +108 line at -3 from 55% through to 63.5%.

POINT VALUES ARE NOT EQUAL!

 

[RiverDog]

In a way the sports media can influence betting lines.
In this instance the bookies looked at the sports books and betting activity in previous games and made us 1 point favorites.
Then a lot of the the sports media favored the Rams and a lot of bets came in for the Rams.
The later caused the lines to shift making us the underdogs. It can not be proved but is very likely that the sports media picking the rams is what led to a lot of bets going their way.

That's a round-about way of looking at it. You could also say that the coaches and players can influence betting activity by what they say or do. Heck, more people might bet on the Chiefs to win if they know that Taylor Swift will be in attendance.

 

[AK49Hawk]

Thanks everyone. I don’t gamble, at least not on sports, always seemed too mystical to me.

 

[RiverDog]

Home teams usually have a 3 point spread advantage.

This is nothing more than Vegas (sports books) trying to spread their risk.

Besides recent history is on the Rams side.

Time to even things up.

31-27 Seahawks take the W.

I hate to be picky, but home teams usually get an average of 1.5 to 2 points, but you're exactly right about the sports books spreading their risk. They make their money by taking a certain percentage of the bets that are placed, so their goal is to even out the payout on the two possible results.

 

[Crizilla]

I’m not sure what’s up with sports media and their ignorance towards Seattle sports?

Division game against an opponent who has had our number.

 

[SeAhAwKeR4life]

Come on guys, it's just a loss. Unavoidable, as per the pundits...

Get over it already, 6-4 isn't that big a deal. The pundits have decreed the Rams won. So it's obviously inevitable...[/s]

 

[flv2]

I hate to be picky, but home teams usually get an average of 1.5 to 2 points, but you're exactly right about the sports books spreading their risk. They make their money by taking a certain percentage of the bets that are placed, so their goal is to even out the payout on the two possible results.

Home field advantage was used to be worth around 7%. In the modern game it's worth less at around 5%. Obviously the fan base, the team's playoff chances, the field conditions, and weather can make a bigger difference. Rams home field advantage is much smaller whilst the Broncos advantage is bigger. If a neutral venue match-up would make a team a 47% underdog then home field advantage could potentially be worth 6% making them a 53% favourite. That could move a betting line from +2 to -2, (visually a 4 point swing). However if they already a 57% favourite then making them a 63% favourite could move the line from -3 +100 to -3 -125, (visually a 0 point swing). Home field is worth win probability NOT points.

 

[RiverDog]

Thanks everyone. I don’t gamble, at least not on sports, always seemed too mystical to me.

Good for you. I've never been an addictive gambler, but I do like going to Vegas and laying down a modest amount, usually $50, on a game as it makes the game a little more fun to watch knowing that I have some money riding on the outcome.
But I've seen some awful tragedies involving people I worked with, including murder and suicide, as a direct result of gambling. I personally don't like the NFL getting all cozy with the gaming industry in the way they have, but that's a topic for another discussion.

 

[RiverDog]

Home field advantage was used to be worth around 7%. In the modern game it's worth less at around 5%. Obviously the fan base, the team's playoff chances, the field conditions, and weather can make a bigger difference. Rams home field advantage is much smaller whilst the Broncos advantage is bigger. If a neutral venue match-up would make a team a 47% underdog then home field advantage could potentially be worth 6% making them a 53% favourite. That could move a betting line from +2 to -2, (visually a 4 point swing). However if they already a 57% favourite then making them a 63% favourite could move the line from -3 +100 to -3 -125, (visually a 0 point swing). Home field is worth win probability NOT points.

You're right, it has gotten smaller over the years. Here's a good article on it:

Las Vegas oddsmakers said that home-field advantage was generally worth around 2.8 points in the National Football League for decades.
Over the last 10 to 15 years, the advantage has severely depreciated.

"Home field varies team-to-team, but as a baseline, it's about 1.5 to 2 points," PointsBet trading director Jay Croucher told FOX Sports.

NFL odds: How much is home-field advantage really worth on the spread? | FOX Sports

There's no place like home, right? Sam Panayotovich breaks down how things have changed over the past decade in the NFL.

www.foxsports.com

One of the changes that has occurred is that the availability of game tickets has allowed for more visiting fans to attend the games and reducing home field advantages. Back in the 90's, if you didn't have or know someone who had season tickets, you couldn't go to the game. There was no such thing as Stub Hub and Ticketmaster. The tickets were all hard copies and you had to get them via snail mail.

 

[flv2]

You're right, it has gotten smaller over the years. Here's a good article on it:

Las Vegas oddsmakers said that home-field advantage was generally worth around 2.8 points in the National Football League for decades.
Over the last 10 to 15 years, the advantage has severely depreciated.

"Home field varies team-to-team, but as a baseline, it's about 1.5 to 2 points," PointsBet trading director Jay Croucher told FOX Sports.

NFL odds: How much is home-field advantage really worth on the spread? | FOX Sports

There's no place like home, right? Sam Panayotovich breaks down how things have changed over the past decade in the NFL.

www.foxsports.com

The gist of it is correct but they're still thinking in terms of points rather than win probability.