Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century

[lukerguy]

We'll win, don't worry. I feel so confident because we match up so well against NO. The only mismatch they present for us is that they have a great TE, and we've struggled to cover them in the past. However, Graham is a bit hobbled right now. I posted on the NFL nation board before the Jets/Saints game that I thought the Jets would win for a few different reasons. Those same reasons apply to Seattle because we have a similar team philosophy to NYJ other than the fact that they have much much worse personnel.

This is what I said

Every Saints game has implications for the Seahawks given the importance of home field. I have this weird feeling that NYJs are going to upset the Saints today. I could be made to look like a fool but I think that the Jets matchup well against them. Here's why:

-Drew Brees has struggled on the road this year as opposed to at home.
-The Jets actually have a very good D, both passing and especially rushing.
- The Pats beat the Saints, and the Jets beat the Pats...it's possible
-The Ryan brothers know each other well, but I'll give the upper hand to Rex. He will know what his brother is going to bring at his offense. I expect him to be able to do some things that will expoit the aggresive Saints D.

23-20 Jets

http://seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=78592&start=0

The Saints are undefeated at home, but have played some very marginal football on the road.
The Jets are great at running the football, and stopping the pass. (sound like anyone you know?) Plus, add the fact that we can also throw the ball unlike the Jets.
Another reason, which goes without explaining is the 12th man- the reason why this is so much of a factor for offenses like NO is because they run a "tempo" offense. It's a huge part of what they do. It's not no-huddle, but it's very rhythmic. This rhythm is very hard to execute in Seattle.

 

[Laloosh]

HFA doesn't extend through the superbowl. I'd much rather see stats on how #1 seeds have done through their respective conference playoffs. The reason we want the HFA is not because it will help us WIN the superbowl, it's because it gives us the edge to GET TO the superbowl. Don't mistake getting there with winning it. Odds of their being a Jets/Giants team in the superbowl are fairly low, so there is no true HFA in the superbowl. The idea is to get the best route for your team to be successful in the playoffs. Nobody holds a better HFA than the Seahawks. This is why we need HFA, not to win the superbowl, but to make our odds of getting there increase. Once you get there, then everything is gone, W/L records don't matter, nothing matters except what happens on that day.

I think I saw a breakdown of "participants" in the SB along w/ their seed value and the #1 and #2 seeds had about a 50% participation rate.

I'll take it!

 

[lukerguy]

Possibly a more recent factor has been that there are now two wildcard teams and four divisions. Many times, the wildcard in the #5 slot is a much better team than the division winner in the #4 slot. They take out the division winner and advance to play the #1 team. Meanwhile, the #3 team advances to play the #2 team. That #3 team may not be as good as that #5 wildcard team, meaning the #1 has a tougher matchup than the #2.

This year, we're most likely to face Carolina, which would be the #5 team. That's the toughest matchup we could face IMO. That's why so many wildcard teams have slipped in and so many #1's have fallen. Last year, we were the #5 team and nobody wanted to face us. We knocked off the #4 and nearly knocked off the #1 seed.

In the days of three divisions, the Wildcards played each other first. They literally were playing the 5th best team in the playoffs, not the 8-8 winner of the NFCLeast. And the #2 and #3 got byes. meaning the #1 had the unique advantage of being the only team with two weeks rest facing an opponent who did not have two weeks rest. In those days, wildcards beating #1's was rare.

Great post. However, I don't think we have to worry about it. #1- I don't think we're going to lose based on my above post. #2- Even if we did, we have a much easier schedule @ SF @ NY- pardon my optimism, but there no way in heck we lose back to back games. We have SF's number, and they've already lost 2 home games this year. NYG may be a bit of a trap game, but the way that ELI is throwing INT parties this year, we should be able to take care of business. This team tends to play well in NY (foreshadowing?). Then 2 home games. I won't look past STL or AZ but we should win them. Take NO's remaining schedule:

- @ ATL (no guarantee. These teams hate each other as much as we hate the 9ers). W
-@ Sea - For the sake of hypothetical I'm calling this a L, but I don't think it will be.
-Vs. Panthers W at home
- @ Rams Will be a huge trap game for them. Coming of a huge win against a division fo. STL can shock the world with their pass rush and special teams (See. INDI game) We'll call it a W for the hypothetical
-@ Carolina- I just think they lose this game. On the road, against a team with good D, and running game (like us).
-Vs. TB- W

In this scenario, we could still win out versus SF, NY, AZ, STL and I would put my money on NO losing at least one of the remaining 6 games if not 2. I think NO is overrated and an 12-4 or 11-5 team. SF almost did them in their own place, and probably should have without that bogus call.

 

[BlueTalons]

The ball is a funny shape...it bounces weird.

 

[lukerguy]

Yea, the only issue I have is that after that horrific call against the niners, I am starting to get that crazy conspiracy theory voice in my head.

This is the NFL doing a "makeup year with Brees" for Bountygate.

I have these voices in the back of my skull because I am psychologically damaged by Dikembe Mutombo and the post 9/11 Mariners slump that ruined 116 wins...

Don't worry about that. If anything the league would not like the Saints for Bountygate. I believe there are certain teams whom the league would prefer to win, but I don't think they'd go as far as trying to rig a game. The call was bang/bang and it was an aggressive hit.

 

[kearly]

It would be three teams if not for the fiasco that was SB 40.

 

[rjdriver]

HFA doesn't extend through the superbowl. I'd much rather see stats on how #1 seeds have done through their respective conference playoffs. The reason we want the HFA is not because it will help us WIN the superbowl, it's because it gives us the edge to GET TO the superbowl. Don't mistake getting there with winning it. Odds of their being a Jets/Giants team in the superbowl are fairly low, so there is no true HFA in the superbowl. The idea is to get the best route for your team to be successful in the playoffs. Nobody holds a better HFA than the Seahawks. This is why we need HFA, not to win the superbowl, but to make our odds of getting there increase. Once you get there, then everything is gone, W/L records don't matter, nothing matters except what happens on that day.

I was thinking the same thing. How many number ones make it to the Super Bowl?
Also, how many number ones enjoy the definitive HFA that we have? Maybe NO... Maybe.