Time to Throw vs. Sack Rate (Russ vs Notable Peers)

[Scorpion05]

I've been watching a lot of talk shows, and although generally many of them are excited about seeing Russell Wilson on other teams, others have been critiquing both sides.

The critique of Wilson, is that he holds the ball too long, and this is the reason he gets sacked and hit so much. So I decided to look at Wilson's time to throw numbers in the last few years, and how that falls in line with his sack numbers.

The following is a break down of Russell Wilson's time to throw, and sack numbers year by year. And some notable comparisons for each year.

2020

Russell Wilson - 2.97 seconds Time to Throw (Ranked 5th most), Sacked 47 times
Patrick Mahomes - 2.89 seconds Time to Throw (Ranked 7th), Sacked 22 times
Josh Allen - 3.04 seconds Time to Throw (Ranked 3rd most), Sacked 26 times

2019

Russell Wilson - 2.85 seconds Time to Throw (Ranked 12th most), Sacked 48 times
Aaron Rodgers - 2.88 seconds Time to Throw (Ranked 6th most), Sacked 36 times
Patrick Mahomes - 2.82 seconds Time to Throw (Ranked 18th), Sacked 17 times
Josh Allen - 2.85 seconds Time to Throw (Ranked 10th most), Sacked 38 times


2018

Russell Wilson - 3.02 seconds Time to throw (Ranked 3rd most), Sacked 51 times
Patrick Mahomes - 2.91 seconds Time to Throw (Ranked 8th), Sacked 26 times
Aaron Rodgers - 2.95 seconds Time to Throw (Ranked 5th most), Sacked 49 times
Josh Allen - 3.22 seconds Time to Throw (Ranked 1st), Sacked 28 times
Jared Goff - 2.95 seconds Time to Throw (Ranked 6th), Sacked Sacked 33 times


2017

Russell Wilson - 3.05 seconds Time to throw (Ranked 2nd most), Sacked 43 times
Jared Goff - 2.93 seconds Time to Throw (Ranked 5th most), Sacked 25 times

2016

Russell Wilson - 2.61 seconds Time to throw ( Ranked 20th), Sacked 41 times
Aaron Rodgers - 2.87 seconds Time to Throw (Ranked 6th most), Sacked 35 times
Tom Brady - 2.56 seconds Time to Throw (Ranked 25th), Sacked 15 times


Although the numbers vary by QB from year to year, it seems to me that Wilson has consistently taken a beating no matter how long he holds the ball. And those numbers don't quite line up with other QBs and their sack numbers/hits relative to how long they hold the ball.

Source:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/pass ... /all#yards

 

[MrThortan]

Interesting statistics. Going to assume your data is accurate. Looks like there is on average less than a .1 second difference between comparable QBs, yet a significant difference in sacks. Even those that held on to the ball longer were sacked less. Russ has also been a relatively mobile QB for most of his career.

 

[keasley45]

Interesting statistics. Going to assume your data is accurate. Looks like there is on average less than a .1 second difference between comparable QBs, yet a significant difference in sacks. Even those that held on to the ball longer were sacked less. Russ has also been a relatively mobile QB for most of his career.

Shhhhh. Dont speak facts and common sense. After all, if you debunk the theory that he doesn't have enough time to throw, then the sacks HAVE to be because Pete draws up crappy plays and forces them doen RW's and the OCs throat, and / or that RW suffers from a lack of talent.

Impossible that his sacks are often as attributable to not seeing the open wr as anything else. Even when you provide factual video evidence that he just holds onto the ball way too long.

Love Russ, but that doesn't mean the dude is beyond reproach and at times responsible for the offenses issues.

 

[John63]

Interesting statistics. Going to assume your data is accurate. Looks like there is on average less than a .1 second difference between comparable QBs, yet a significant difference in sacks. Even those that held on to the ball longer were sacked less. Russ has also been a relatively mobile QB for most of his career.

Kind of proves that there is an ass blocking issue or a scheme issue. Meaning

either the oline sucks at pass blocking
the coaching staff does not care about pass blocking
the offense schemes being uses set both the oline and Wilson up to be sacked.


also keep in mind that is sack totals only, there are hit, hurries, and pressures.

Wilson has been the most hit, hurries, pressured and sacked Qb in under 2,5 seconds every year he has been in the league.

 

[Ad Hawk]

If this is time to throw over all dropbacks, including those where he scrambles for 5-6 seconds, then I'm not surprised his time to throw is higher than average.

I'd like to know how long before he gets sacked vs. the average on only those plays where he's sacked.

There are, of course, too many times he hangs on for 5 seconds and takes a sack. But also plenty of times where it's 1.5 seconds and a jailbreak from the D-line.

 

[massari]

Next Gen Stats:

Time To Throw (TT) Time to Throw measures the average amount of time elapsed from the time of snap to throw on every pass attempt for a passer (sacks excluded).

Wilson's time is always high because he can extend plays scrambling.

I think the more appropriate stat would be the average time a QB gets before getting pressured, or the average time a QB gets to throw on plays they were sacked.

 

[Maelstrom787]

By notable comparisons, do you mean "the relatively small number of examples that support my narrative?"

Newsflash: The common denominator here? It's Wilson. Sacks are just as much a quarterback stat.

 

[LickMyNuts]

One of the differences I see with RW is that he doesn’t do well with pressure in the pocket. When the defender gets to his face he can’t see anything.

Where as a QB like Rapeistberger or Tom Brady is still standing tall and looking down the field.

The better defensive coordinators play RW pretty well and without a really good run game he struggles to overcome it.

I think the question is as his athleticism dwindles can he adapt his game?

 

[John63]

If this is time to throw over all dropbacks, including those where he scrambles for 5-6 seconds, then I'm not surprised his time to throw is higher than average.

I'd like to know how long before he gets sacked vs. the average on only those plays where he's sacked.

There are, of course, too many times he hangs on for 5 seconds and takes a sack. But also plenty of times where it's 1.5 seconds and a jailbreak from the D-line.

And plenty of times were he should have been sacked but managed to avoid it. Way more than the avg QB.

 

[John63]

One of the differences I see with RW is that he doesn’t do well with pressure in the pocket. When the defender gets to his face he can’t see anything.

Where as a QB like Rapeistberger or Tom Brady is still standing tall and looking down the field.

The better defensive coordinators play RW pretty well and without a really good run game he struggles to overcome it.

I think the question is as his athleticism dwindles can he adapt his game?

Ahh no QB does well when the defender is in their face is in their face.

 

[John63]

By notable comparisons, do you mean "the relatively small number of examples that support my narrative?"

Newsflash: The common denominator here? It's Wilson. Sacks are just as much a quarterback stat.

Wrong the common denominator here is scheme and oline especially when the QBs before Wilson avg over 40 sacks a year as well. Sacks are just as much a scheme and oline stat

 

[Fade]

I tend to keep it simple. Pressure in under 2 seconds is on the O-Line. Pressure that happens after 2 seconds is on the QB and/or scheme. There is a lot of minutia in breaking this down, with every play needing to be dissected with the QB / OC sitting by your side. What was the protection? Who was the first read? Did a TE miss his assignment?

Keep it simple stupid. Under 2 secs = OLine. Over 2 secs = QB and/or scheme.

The Seahawks ranked 32nd in the NFL surrendering pressure in under 2 seconds up through 2017. They have been consistently the worst. It didn't improve much in the last 3 seasons, but I can't find the numbers, right now. they remained bottom 10. Though, the first 5 games they played at a top 10 clip and Wilson was poised to shatter a lot of records.

With that being said, anyone trying to make the argument that the Seahawks have done a good job protecting Wilson over his career need to have their heads examined. 32nd in O-Line spending since 2014. One offensive lineman drafted in the 1st round since 2014; Germaine Ifedi, that's it, that's the list.

Those sack numbers are unsurprising to me. As those QBs have had superior O-Lines and schemes so they can afford to hold the ball more and get away with it. When Wilson holds the ball he's getting ready to dance, because he knows his protection isn't going to hold up.

 

[Scorpion05]

Interesting statistics. Going to assume your data is accurate. Looks like there is on average less than a .1 second difference between comparable QBs, yet a significant difference in sacks. Even those that held on to the ball longer were sacked less. Russ has also been a relatively mobile QB for most of his career.

Shhhhh. Dont speak facts and common sense. After all, if you debunk the theory that he doesn't have enough time to throw, then the sacks HAVE to be because Pete draws up crappy plays and forces them doen RW's and the OCs throat, and / or that RW suffers from a lack of talent.

Impossible that his sacks are often as attributable to not seeing the open wr as anything else. Even when you provide factual video evidence that he just holds onto the ball way too long.

Love Russ, but that doesn't mean the dude is beyond reproach and at times responsible for the offenses issues.

Wilson is an inch shorter than Brees, and about the same height as Mayfield.

The general point is, Wilson’s sack numbers are not a result of him holding the ball too long. Because he holds the ball just about as long as other notable QBs. In fact, the above numbers show that in some seasons he got rid of the ball quicker than the other QBs but still got hit and sacked more.


Now if you ask me, I say it’s because the Seahawks have never truly invested in O-line and taking care of Russ. You have every right to believe it’s about his height, indecisiveness, etc.. I don’t agree but I respect that opinion. It is definitely not about how long he holds the ball, or his cap hit though, that much is certain. Other teams figure it out.

By notable comparisons, do you mean "the relatively small number of examples that support my narrative?"

Newsflash: The common denominator here? It's Wilson. Sacks are just as much a quarterback stat.

Seriously? How did it get to this point. I wish we could get back to objective and fair discussions.

These are Next Gen stat numbers, not mine. Whatever your opinion is, there is no correlation with some of the great QBs holding the ball, and their sack numbers versus Russ’ over the years. There is an arguable disparity in O-line protection. Why does it have to be a narrative? I could have included more comparisons, and more numbers. Such as the fact that Wilson was 3rd in the league in throwaways for 2020. But I did not want to overwhelm the thread and make it too long to read.

The point, is that Wilson has been consistently sacked, hit, hurried EVEN WHEN HE GETS RID OF THE BALL QUICKLY. Or, when other QBs have similar time to throw numbers. His sack numbers are highly disproportionate over the years. So either you believe Wilson is the only bumbling idiot in the league for 10 years straight, yet manages to put up 35+ TDs a year. Or, he has some right to complain about his protection, and the narrative of him holding the ball is overblown.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Interesting statistics. Going to assume your data is accurate. Looks like there is on average less than a .1 second difference between comparable QBs, yet a significant difference in sacks. Even those that held on to the ball longer were sacked less. Russ has also been a relatively mobile QB for most of his career.

Shhhhh. Dont speak facts and common sense. After all, if you debunk the theory that he doesn't have enough time to throw, then the sacks HAVE to be because Pete draws up crappy plays and forces them doen RW's and the OCs throat, and / or that RW suffers from a lack of talent.

Impossible that his sacks are often as attributable to not seeing the open wr as anything else. Even when you provide factual video evidence that he just holds onto the ball way too long.

Love Russ, but that doesn't mean the dude is beyond reproach and at times responsible for the offenses issues.

Wilson is an inch shorter than Brees, and about the same height as Mayfield.

The general point is, Wilson’s sack numbers are not a result of him holding the ball too long. Because he holds the ball just about as long as other notable QBs. In fact, the above numbers show that in some seasons he got rid of the ball quicker than the other QBs but still got hit and sacked more.


Now if you ask me, I say it’s because the Seahawks have never truly invested in O-line and taking care of Russ. You have every right to believe it’s about his height, indecisiveness, etc.. I don’t agree but I respect that opinion. It is definitely not about how long he holds the ball, or his cap hit though, that much is certain. Other teams figure it out.

By notable comparisons, do you mean "the relatively small number of examples that support my narrative?"

Newsflash: The common denominator here? It's Wilson. Sacks are just as much a quarterback stat.

Seriously? How did it get to this point. I wish we could get back to objective and fair discussions.

These are Next Gen stat numbers, not mine. Whatever your opinion is, there is no correlation with some of the great QBs holding the ball, and their sack numbers versus Russ’ over the years. There is an arguable disparity in O-line protection. Why does it have to be a narrative? I could have included more comparisons, and more numbers. Such as the fact that Wilson was 3rd in the league in throwaways for 2020. But I did not want to overwhelm the thread and make it too long to read.

The point, is that Wilson has been consistently sacked, hit, hurried EVEN WHEN HE GETS RID OF THE BALL QUICKLY. Or, when other QBs have similar time to throw numbers. His sack numbers are highly disproportionate over the years. So either you believe Wilson is the only bumbling idiot in the league for 10 years straight, yet manages to put up 35+ TDs a year. Or, he has some right to complain about his protection, and the narrative of him holding the ball is overblown.

So you complain about the lack of fairness and objectivity in my reply, yet throw this DOOZY of a strawman out without so much as a wince. Come on.

So either you believe Wilson is the only bumbling idiot in the league for 10 years straight, yet manages to put up 35+ TDs a year. Or, he has some right to complain about his protection, and the narrative of him holding the ball is overblown.

Nothing in your post leads to the conclusion that Russell is pounded even when getting rid of the ball quickly, because he doesn't get rid of the ball quickly and never has. The year he did was 2017, which is an anomaly year where his supporting case was almost unbelievably terrible.

It especially doesn't track with the 2020 season, where Russell was given a decent pocket until at least the 2.5 second mark at a top-10 rate this year. The lines problem wasn't overall performance, but consistency - not that it mattered, because even good games from them in the second half of the year were met with horrific performances by Russell, which is far outside of his norm.

Just because you're posting advanced data doesn't mean the conclusion you're drawing is correct. Data can be accurate, and accurate data can be used to draw inaccurate conclusions. Russell runs himself into more sacks than most quarterbacks - its always been his biggest issue, he just used to be better at the circus act of getting himself out of those sacks. The situation we saw earlier this season where Duane Brown got pissed at Russ for running himself into a sack by stepping up out of the clean pocket isn't new, and it isn't rare.

Before another strawman is thrown up - let me just point out that NOTHING IN THE ABOVE REPLY states that the offensive line hasn't been a problem for the vast majority of Russell's career. The truth lies in the middle, though, and maybe - JUST maybe a huge part of the reason why Russ seems to have high sack numbers REGARDLESS of every other variable is... that Russ is bad at not getting sacked.

 

[getnasty]

There is a scheme issue, there is a OL issue, and beleive it or not Russell is holding the ball issue.

It doesn't have to be one or the other, it's possible that all 3 are contributing factors.

 

[xray]

Wilson is known as a long ball thrower . Most of the pass plays are medium to long , that require longer to develop . If he has a weakness it's the short passes in the middle which requires him to get the ball out quicker . His height is the main issue there . He can't see and he flushes too soon trying to see the field better . That's his style of play , not as much by design but by necessity . Many say his height isn't an issue in his career, but I disagree . Just my opinion .

 

[AgentDib]

There is a scheme issue, there is a OL issue, and beleive it or not Russell is holding the ball issue. It doesn't have to be one or the other, it's possible that all 3 are contributing factors.

The narrative fallacy is heavily at play in sports analysis because people love to find a good story that will let them remove factors until they are left with just one for simplicity. It's extremely common to see people listing other factors only to then discount them in favored of their preferred single factor.

For example, QBs getting sacked in under 2 seconds is a very complicated issue. It rarely happens, and when it does it is often the case that the QB misread the defense and was fooled by a blitz. That is on the QB to either check to a different play or change protection.

Occasionally, quick sacks can be due to one OL getting completely beat as with Brandon Graham's winning strip stack. It's much more common, however, to be the result of some sort of confusion where the QB fails to diagnose something, the OL fails to diagnose the stunt, or the hot read/hot protection fails to realize that their job has just changed on a play. One of the most notable sacks from last season was caused by rookie RB DeeJay Dallas failing to do his job picking up a blitz.

 

[jammerhawk]

The numbers are interesting but do not tell the whole story. It’s difficult to effectively pass block for a QB who is sandlot playing to extend time. There’s enough blame to be shared around, on RW for holding the ball too long, or running into the rush, on scheme for slow developing plays, on the OLine for failure to protect, on a weak play action game or upon the RBs for not selling it, on WRs & TEs for not getting open quicker, on the coaching staff for not creating up tempo offence, on the PC for being highly predictable.

A change of scheme, more strength in the interior OLine, a short quick passing O, effective play action will all help protect RW better but he needs to contribute too.

 

[John63]

The numbers are interesting but do not tell the whole story. It’s difficult to effectively pass block for a QB who is sandlot playing to extend time. There’s enough blame to be shared around, on RW for holding the ball too long, or running into the rush, on scheme for slow developing plays, on the OLine for failure to protect, on a weak play action game or upon the RBs for not selling it, on WRs & TEs for not getting open quicker, on the coaching staff for not creating up tempo offence, on the PC for being highly predictable.

A change of scheme, more strength in the interior OLine, a short quick passing O, effective play action will all help protect RW better but he needs to contribute too.

Hence, why he said he needs to play better too. Seems people forget he recognized that he needs to play better also.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Why bother? Nothing changes and making up stuff about Russ every day is the norm...….
Boring......