This Week's Enemy Fan Forums: The San Francisco 49ers

[NINEster]

I appreciate the analysis, NinerBuff. I'll be looking for these points when I re-watch games over the next few days. Regarding the lack of Patton, I've been wondering if both teams held just a little back for this game. I'm sure they both did everything feasible to win last week, but I wonder if in those borderline decisions (who to target, how many snaps per player, etc.) the deciding factor wasn't the fact that they could spring a few new wrinkles in week 2. Surely, neither team was going to put everything on tape in week 1, right? That's one of the more fascinating aspects of playing each other in week 2; anything can happen. We might see formations and fronts we haven't seen between these two teams before. I'm salivating for this one! Football anticipation at its finest.

Agree with this assessment.

I think this week we see EVERYTHING from both teams.

:thirishdrinkers:

 

[Giedi]

No the 49er defense definitley wasn't at its best. Again, you have to factor in that Green Bay's offense is one of the better ones in the NFL. As for our Home record, it's been 4 years since Seattle has beat the 49ers at home. That means even during the pre-Harbaugh days, Seattle couldn't win. Having said that, I think Wilson is the X-factor and difference maker. But the problem is that Seattle's road record is average when compared to their home record. If there is a team that *needs* to win at home, it's Seattle.

Seattle has gone 4-1 in their last five road games fwiw. In the past, I'd say you were spot on, but this is a better team, capable of doing much better on the road, as proven by recent success. So, while I think every game is crucial in making the playoffs and obtaining a good seed, I don't feel like they need to sweep at home to get there. I think they need home wins exactly as much as everyone else.

Unfortunately to win superbowls, you have to have a perfect road record in the playoffs. That 1L (in the 4-1) was a loss to Atlanta, just as our loss was a loss to the Ravens. Neither of our teams were good enough - road recordwise - to win it all.

The secret to winning on the road (and Laofotatupu and I have had knock down drag out discussions on this on the 49ers.com boards [not the Webzone boards]) is first of all a good QB and a good above average balanced offense, and basically a top 3 defense. Now, that defense has to be structured in a specific way, ask Laofo if you want to know more about it - he and I were going back and forth on it for almost 3 days.

Look.. its Loaf... and to you, it is "daddy".

But yes, we have discussed this on numerous occasions.

I have seen hard proof that teams with a QB that has good ratings on the road are the ones playing at home in the playoffs.

To win on the road does take defense. There are plenty of examples. I think the QB rating thing is directly related to turnovers. INTs will ruin a rating pretty quickly. The great running game helps with ball control, limiting the number of possessions.

How does it apply to Sunday night? I dunno. Both teams are really, really good. Great systems and coaching, great QBs, RBs and Defenses.

The Clink welcomes the challenge.

Hey Loaf, pretty interesting board you have here. Again, thanks for the plug with the mods to let me in!

How it will play this sunday? For the 49ers to win it - hypothetically - the offense has to control the ball and dominate the time of possession. Whether that be via run or pass, doesn't matter, the 49ers simply have to control the clock. On defense, they have to be strong enough to force turnovers. Turnovers are always key for winning away games. Turnovers are usually caused by a dominating defensive line that causes the QB to make mistakes or forces fumbles. Finally, a strong run defense, because I'm pretty sure Wilson will perform like Roger Staubach X Peyton Manning at C-link. So once Wilson has the 'Hawks ahead by a TD or two, Wilson is going to feed Mr. Lynch the ball, it's up to a strong 49er run defense to stop that, force a 3 & out, and give the 49ers a chance to get the ball back and catch up.

That's a tall order to do. The problem with that strategy is that I don't think the 49er offense can deal with the 12th man as effectively as they need to. Russell Wilson has changed the equasion by being an elite passer, which forces other teams to pass rather than run. Passing means more audibles and line calls - practically impossible to do with the 12th man in full force.

 

[Popeyejones]

So disappointed in myself for responding to this but...

You don't have to respond...

I am fine with you thinking they're an unbelievably difficult defense to pass on. I just happen to disagree.[/color]

...but if you do respond, you might as well respond to something I've actually said.

 

[Popeyejones]

Areas of Discouragement:

#2 WR - Williams is shifty but isn't really a threat. I was disappointed that Patton wasn't targeted. I expect that to change in this game.

Clock Management - this still remains Kaep's number 1 weakness, and it will only be exacerbated in the hostile environment.

Fully agreed with these as areas of discouragement, but disagree with what you're attributing them to.

#2 WR: Still a problem (particularly against Seattle IMO), but I don't think it's Williams not being a threat (although I don't think he's much of one) as much as it's Kap force-feeding his favorite receiver. Crabtree had an unspectaculr career until Kap came in (read: Crabs probably isn't that special), and when Crabs went out, Boldin (who we already know isn't that special) came in and played the Crab role without a single hiccup, and at least through one game, even better than Crabs did.

So, the #2 receiver problem (and honestly, the #2 is Vernon) is partially a problem with the lack of a quality #2, but we also don't have a quality #1 with Boldin, and the real problem is that at this point in his career Kap hones in on a guy to the detriment of everyone else. He's like Cutler just throwing to Marshall over and over and over again, not like Rodgers or Brees who are agnostic to who is open (Wilson is more in this vein too, IMO).

As for Patton, he was 4th on the depth chart (only four WRs suited), and missed most of the preseason. Harbaugh and Roman have a strong preference for grizzly vets over untested rookies (see: trying to go to the sack of potatoes Brandon Jacobs before LaMichael James last year; an off-the-street Chad Hall getting run before AJ Jenkins last year; leaning on the nothing-left Randy Moss ahead of Manningham and Williams even before they went down; bringing back the nearly worthless Adam Snyder over someone younger; sticking with a maddingly inconsistent and over the hill Goodwin over Kilgore at center; against the Packers listing and playing the never-done-a-thing Marlon Moore over Patton who looked like our second best WR in the two preseason games he played (iirc about 2 games)).

Basically, I'm excited about Patton's promise, but I don't think we'll see much of him this year unless Harbaugh and Roman's hands are forced. Williams and/or Moore will have to dramatically sh!t the bed for Patton to get much if any run before Manningham and Crabs come back, and after that, he'll be completely buried.

Clock Management: Another problem for sure, but I think on this one attributing it to Kaep isn't right (e.g. Kaep deserves more blame on the first one and less blame on this one). The clock management problem is two things: 1) All the shifting at the line, and 2) the abnormally large playbook. These are the two things they cut down on in the second half of the Packers game, and they solved the problem. They're also the two things Roman cited as causing the problem. I think we have further evidence of it being these things more so than Kaep because Alex Smith had the exact same problems before Kaep. Basically, it's a systemic problem (that's a very real one, PARTICULARLY in the Clink for obvious reasons), rather than a problem that can be attributed to and then cleaned up in relation to an individual player.

All that said, fully agreed overall with the things you're citing as both promising and troubling.

FWIW I'm also expecting the 9ers and Hawks to both hold serve on their home courts this year.

 

[NINEster]

What's interesting about all of these predictions is they rarely ever go as predicted....

Nobody was predicting the Packers to shut down SF running game and Kaep throw 400+.

I think we will see a mix of things, success from all sides of the ball and the team with the ball last or most breaks winning it.

About the only thing we know for sure is there will be a lot of chippiness, and personal foul/unsportsmanslike conduct penalties!

 

[themunn]

As for the Hawk road record, I bring it up because after the October 18 2012 matchup between the 49ers and the Hawks, which the 49ers won, the 49ers didn't lose a road game until the Superbowl, whereas the Hawks were .500 on the road after the loss to the 49ers.

Have you got your wires crossed?
42-13 happened on December 23rd.
San Francisco have only won one road game since then, whereas Seattle have won 4 of their last 5
Hell I really don't understand what's going on, because the 49ers lost to the Rams after the first Seattle game too

 

[hawker84]

ooopsy....

 

[Giedi]

As for the Hawk road record, I bring it up because after the October 18 2012 matchup between the 49ers and the Hawks, which the 49ers won, the 49ers didn't lose a road game until the Superbowl, whereas the Hawks were .500 on the road after the loss to the 49ers.

Have you got your wires crossed?
42-13 happened on December 23rd.
San Francisco have only won one road game since then, whereas Seattle have won 4 of their last 5
Hell I really don't understand what's going on, because the 49ers lost to the Rams after the first Seattle game too

Whoopers, sorry my bad. *since* the Oct. 18, road records - 49ers 5 wins 3 losses (if you include the playoffs) Seattle 3- wins/3 losses (if you include the playoffs) Point being the road records mirror the playoff records. If you take the 49er regular season road wins since Oct 18. its about 60%, if you take the Seattle regular road wins since Oct 18 - it's about 50% which is the same as the playoff record (Seattle win at fed ex field and loss at Georgia dome) for the 49ers - pretty much the same, a win at the Georgia dome and loss in the Mercedes superdome.

Which doesn't really change my point - that to win Super bowls you have to win on the road. I use the October 18 mark because it's after that date is when the Seattle coaching staff decided to cut Wilson loose.

 

[Giedi]

What's interesting about all of these predictions is they rarely ever go as predicted....

Nobody was predicting the Packers to shut down SF running game and Kaep throw 400+.

I think we will see a mix of things, success from all sides of the ball and the team with the ball last or most breaks winning it.

About the only thing we know for sure is there will be a lot of chippiness, and personal foul/unsportsmanslike conduct penalties!

Well I can predict for almost 100% certainty the 49ers will have several false starts and illegal formation penalties, and I can also predict almost 100% that the 12th man will be in force and the decibel level will be ear shattering, there will be Seahawk fans who wont' be able to hear or speak for several days after the game. :mrgreen:

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

What's interesting about all of these predictions is they rarely ever go as predicted....

Nobody was predicting the Packers to shut down SF running game and Kaep throw 400+.

I think we will see a mix of things, success from all sides of the ball and the team with the ball last or most breaks winning it.

About the only thing we know for sure is there will be a lot of chippiness, and personal foul/unsportsmanslike conduct penalties!

Well I can predict for almost 100% certainty the 49ers will have several false starts and illegal formation penalties, and I can also predict almost 100% that the 12th man will be in force and the decibel level will be ear shattering, there will be Seahawk fans who wont' be able to hear or speak for several days after the game. :mrgreen:

Good observation though what I just can't get is that it seems totally surprising to you and your fanbase that Atlanta and Carolina were outliers. Of course Wilson is elite, the only difference is that the media is on Kaepernick's jock even though objectively Wilson is exactly as good and subjectively better, quite possibly far better by multiple metrics.

I totally expect a 49er win in week 13 by the way. Understand though I do reserve the right to completely reverse that opinion if Percy is healthy (very likely) .

 

[themunn]

As for the Hawk road record, I bring it up because after the October 18 2012 matchup between the 49ers and the Hawks, which the 49ers won, the 49ers didn't lose a road game until the Superbowl, whereas the Hawks were .500 on the road after the loss to the 49ers.

Have you got your wires crossed?
42-13 happened on December 23rd.
San Francisco have only won one road game since then, whereas Seattle have won 4 of their last 5
Hell I really don't understand what's going on, because the 49ers lost to the Rams after the first Seattle game too

Whoopers, sorry my bad. *since* the Oct. 18, road records - 49ers 5 wins 3 losses (if you include the playoffs) Seattle 3- wins/3 losses (if you include the playoffs) Point being the road records mirror the playoff records. If you take the 49er regular season road wins since Oct 18. its about 60%, if you take the Seattle regular road wins since Oct 18 - it's about 50% which is the same as the playoff record (Seattle win at fed ex field and loss at Georgia dome) for the 49ers - pretty much the same, a win at the Georgia dome and loss in the Mercedes superdome.

Which doesn't really change my point - that to win Super bowls you have to win on the road. I use the October 18 mark because it's after that date is when the Seattle coaching staff decided to cut Wilson loose.

By my reckoning the 49ers were 4-3 after that (arbitrarily picked) October 18th game, with wins in Arizona, New Orleans, New England and Atlanta, and losses in St Louis, Seattle and... New Orleans I guess.

Seattle were 3-3. It's not really a big difference, and all three of those losses came with a COMBINED 32 seconds on the clock for the go-ahead score (20 seconds in Detroit, 8 seconds in Atlanta, 4 seconds in Miami), so it's not as if they are getting blown out, a marginal improvement and the team goes from 3-3 to 6-0.
To win superbowls you need to hold fast when there's that much time on the clock at the end of the game, and that's what everyone has been looking for from the Seahawks this year.

 

[NinerLifer]

I will go ahead and say that tomorrow's game means more to the Seahawks than it does to the Niners.

Put it this way, if the Niners win tomorrow then this MB will destroy itself! Because it will then be realized that you can't factor 8-0 at home into your record this year, and those 8 home wins are one of the reasons why those who are picking you as SB favorites are doing so due to you being able to clinch home field throughout. If you drop one at home week 2, the media will quickly turn on you guys and start questioning if they were overhyping you. Stay away from First Take on Monday in this situation.

If the Seahawks win, we will have lost a game that we didn't factor into our chances at returning to the SB because its a game we shouldn't win. In fact if its a close game that the Seahawks win, I doubt that it even gets talked about much afterwards because it would have been what was expected. Good teams win the games they are supposed to, and you guys are supposed to win tomorrow if you want to keep your SB chances going strong.

 

[Sports Hernia]

I will go ahead and say that tomorrow's game means more to the Seahawks than it does to the Niners.

Put it this way, if the Niners win tomorrow then this MB will destroy itself! Because it will then be realized that you can't factor 8-0 at home into your record this year, and those 8 home wins are one of the reasons why those who are picking you as SB favorites are doing so due to you being able to clinch home field throughout. If you drop one at home week 2, the media will quickly turn on you guys and start questioning if they were overhyping you. Stay away from First Take on Monday in this situation.

If the Seahawks win, we will have lost a game that we didn't factor into our chances at returning to the SB because its a game we shouldn't win. In fact if its a close game that the Seahawks win, I doubt that it even gets talked about much afterwards because it would have been what was expected. Good teams win the games they are supposed to, and you guys are supposed to win tomorrow if you want to keep your SB chances going strong.

I think you are downplaying a niners loss and overplaying a Seattle loss (ain't going to happen) to protect your and your fan bases ego. Every niner loss is a step closer to the Harbomb going off and causing unfixible damage, and deep down I think SF fans know this though they'll never admit it.

 

[themunn]

I will go ahead and say that tomorrow's game means more to the Seahawks than it does to the Niners.

Put it this way, if the Niners win tomorrow then this MB will destroy itself! Because it will then be realized that you can't factor 8-0 at home into your record this year, and those 8 home wins are one of the reasons why those who are picking you as SB favorites are doing so due to you being able to clinch home field throughout. If you drop one at home week 2, the media will quickly turn on you guys and start questioning if they were overhyping you. Stay away from First Take on Monday in this situation.

If the Seahawks win, we will have lost a game that we didn't factor into our chances at returning to the SB because its a game we shouldn't win. In fact if its a close game that the Seahawks win, I doubt that it even gets talked about much afterwards because it would have been what was expected. Good teams win the games they are supposed to, and you guys are supposed to win tomorrow if you want to keep your SB chances going strong.

that's fine but what happens if there's a result similar to the last game here?

 

[NinerLifer]

I will go ahead and say that tomorrow's game means more to the Seahawks than it does to the Niners.

Put it this way, if the Niners win tomorrow then this MB will destroy itself! Because it will then be realized that you can't factor 8-0 at home into your record this year, and those 8 home wins are one of the reasons why those who are picking you as SB favorites are doing so due to you being able to clinch home field throughout. If you drop one at home week 2, the media will quickly turn on you guys and start questioning if they were overhyping you. Stay away from First Take on Monday in this situation.

If the Seahawks win, we will have lost a game that we didn't factor into our chances at returning to the SB because its a game we shouldn't win. In fact if its a close game that the Seahawks win, I doubt that it even gets talked about much afterwards because it would have been what was expected. Good teams win the games they are supposed to, and you guys are supposed to win tomorrow if you want to keep your SB chances going strong.

that's fine but what happens if there's a result similar to the last game here?

Then there would be a problem.

No realistic Niner fan EXPECTS a win tomorrow, and hasn't factored a win in Seattle into our SB chances. In fact I don't recall seeing a single analyst during the offseason pick the Niners to win there when forecasting our end of season record. While I remember just about everyone mark down a Seattle win tomorrow during the offseason.

While I would of course be disappointed with a loss tomorrow, I would be more surprised if we won, and no I am not downplaying a Niner loss. I'm just realistic and not that much if a homer.

That is of course assuming that what we all saw week 1 in Carolina was a fluke, and not the beginning of a trend.

 

[themunn]

That is of course assuming that what we all saw week 1 in Carolina was a fluke, and not the beginning of a trend.

Hawks have now won 4 of their last 5 road games, that's a trend that's already started, and it was a long time coming - over their last 8 road LOSSES the total point differential is just 31 points, less than 4 points per game, an extra field goal in each and those 8 losses turn into 4 wins, that's how close the Seahawks were to being a good road team, and the team has been steadily improving over the last year and a half. Right now I expect the Hawks to at least go 0.500 on the road, even with a 7-1 home record, that equates to a 11-5 record, which considering the strength of the NFC this year, would be a serious contender for homefield advantage at least until the NFC Championship (remember, SF was 2nd seed with an 11-4-1 record).
In reality, that's a MINIMUM I expect from the team, this is the best Seahawks team I remember seeing, and a challenger for our franchise-best record.

Oh, and no hawks fan EXPECTS a win tomorrow either, it would be foolish to do so. But we're still very confident in one.

 

[Weadoption]

Feeling good about this game and the Niners in general, because we have a legit multi threat quarterback behind a money O line.
last time it was like this good golden stuff went down eventually.
History repeats blah blah yada yada.

 

[Giedi]

As for the Hawk road record, I bring it up because after the October 18 2012 matchup between the 49ers and the Hawks, which the 49ers won, the 49ers didn't lose a road game until the Superbowl, whereas the Hawks were .500 on the road after the loss to the 49ers.

Have you got your wires crossed?
42-13 happened on December 23rd.
San Francisco have only won one road game since then, whereas Seattle have won 4 of their last 5
Hell I really don't understand what's going on, because the 49ers lost to the Rams after the first Seattle game too

Whoopers, sorry my bad. *since* the Oct. 18, road records - 49ers 5 wins 3 losses (if you include the playoffs) Seattle 3- wins/3 losses (if you include the playoffs) Point being the road records mirror the playoff records. If you take the 49er regular season road wins since Oct 18. its about 60%, if you take the Seattle regular road wins since Oct 18 - it's about 50% which is the same as the playoff record (Seattle win at fed ex field and loss at Georgia dome) for the 49ers - pretty much the same, a win at the Georgia dome and loss in the Mercedes superdome.

Which doesn't really change my point - that to win Super bowls you have to win on the road. I use the October 18 mark because it's after that date is when the Seattle coaching staff decided to cut Wilson loose.

By my reckoning the 49ers were 4-3 after that (arbitrarily picked) October 18th game, with wins in Arizona, New Orleans, New England and Atlanta, and losses in St Louis, Seattle and... New Orleans I guess.

Seattle were 3-3. It's not really a big difference, and all three of those losses came with a COMBINED 32 seconds on the clock for the go-ahead score (20 seconds in Detroit, 8 seconds in Atlanta, 4 seconds in Miami), so it's not as if they are getting blown out, a marginal improvement and the team goes from 3-3 to 6-0.
To win superbowls you need to hold fast when there's that much time on the clock at the end of the game, and that's what everyone has been looking for from the Seahawks this year.

Salary Cap has really erased any big talent advantage any team has over the rest of the NFL. Gone are the days that you can win 55-10 in the playoffs unless one team has a truly atrocious day. Winning on the last second with time running out in the playoffs, you need several things. Again, a very strong run defense to prevent teams from simply closing you out at the end of games when they are ahead, and an inside out defensive scheme that forces ball carriers and ball catchers to go sideways instead of north south. If you have a defense that can keep your away games close to within a field goal or a TD, you have an even chance to win at the end if your offense has the ball last, is balanced, and has a good QB operating the controls.

 

[Sports Hernia]

Feeling good about this game and the Niners in general, because we have a legit multi threat quarterback behind a money O line.
last time it was like this good golden stuff went down eventually.
History repeats blah blah yada yada.

I bet you said the same thing last December when your team got embarrassed on national TV and lost by 29 points! Neeeeexxtttt!

 

[Popeyejones]

Of course Wilson is elite, the only difference is that the media is on Kaepernick's jock even though objectively Wilson is exactly as good and subjectively better, quite possibly far better by multiple metrics.

FWIW across all starts in the commonly used "objective" metrics (QB Rating and QBR) Kaep has performed better than Wilson, although Wilson sometimes appears ahead of Kaep in some of the subjective evaluations (e.g. http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/96582 ... come-great ).

Not trying to argue that Kaep is better than Wilson of course -- I like both of them quite a lot, and am satisfied saying they're both hugely exciting young QBs -- but "blaming" the media for people being positive about Kaep and saying that Wilson is objectively better seems misguided to me on the former point, and just isn't accurate on the later.*

*(Worth saying that I know folks like to ignore Wilson's performance through the first 10 games because the offense hadn't been "opened up" for him, but in this comparison I think this is misguided, given that Kaep is only 11 games in himself; and no, not saying we should compare first 10 games agaisnt first 10 games, again, I think they've both been HUGELY exciting QBs so far, and fans of each team have no shortage of things to be excited about).