Anthony!":3a7oulh5 said:
Agreed but how much of that was Rw being injured and not as big a threat as he could be and also having little to no run game
Good Question, the Seahawks since 2012 have been average in red zone TD% compared to the rest of the league while having a similar profile in all but 2015 in attempts and 2016 in %.
Year - Rank - Attempts Per Game - Rank - TD% in RZ - Expected RZ TDs Per Season (expect rounding errors cause lord knows how I wound up with non whole integers when extrapolating the total RZ Drive Attempts by taking attempts and multiplying across 16 games. Adding in playoffs games did not help this at all. If anyone can find actual totals of RZ TDs, that'd be cool)
2012 5 - 3.6 - 16 - 53.8% - 30.998
2013 11 - 3.4 - 14 - 53.2% - 28.94
2014 - 9 - 3.7 - 20 - 51.52% - 30.49
2015 - 18 - 3.0 - 16 - 55.5% - 26.64
2016 - 8 - 3.5 - 25 47.62% - 26.66
I raise this point for three reasons -
1 - Using ranks tells us little in itself - the characteristics that allow us to sort for ranks have remained relatively constant.
2 - The % is relatively consistent as are attempts from 2012-2014. But we see 2015 and 2016 dip.
3 - Having higher volume of attempts compensates for lower TD% in aggregate which allows this relative underperformance to hide in plain sight. 2015 was doing better with less opportunities and 2016 was doing worse with more.
We can also look at RW himself
To that I turn to pro football reference:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... assing.htm
Right off the bat, looking across all years, I can tell you that RW never ranked higher than 10th on total TDs. Okay, so that isn't a shock but lets get into the nitty gritty of how RW influences that RZ drive TD % number:
Year - RZ Attempts - RZ Completion % - RZ TD/Attempt
2012 - 59 - 55.74% - 30.5%
2013 - 53 - 42.86% - 33.9%
2014 - 57 - 45. 15% - 22.8%
2015 - 53 - 49.15% - 30.1%
2016 - 69 - 40.54% - 21.73%
Inside 10 Attempts - Inside 10 Completion % - Inside 10 TD/Attempt
2012 - 20 - 52.38% - 45%
2013 - 22 - 44.4% - 22.72%
2014 - 21 - 41.67% - 17.6% (Funny coincidence that this year of all years was lowest and also when we shat the bed with a pass in an under 10 yard scenario in the RZ. Funny)
2015 - 24 - 36% - 37.5%
2016 - 24 - 38.46% - 37.5%
Again, nothing here is suggesting that 2015 or 2016 were huge outliers in performance for RW's average over his career in these situations.
Now I'll run a comp with Drew Brees based on the following factors:
1. Is allegedly only 2 inches taller than RW
2. JFG has played with both QBs
3. Hes always at the top of the table, bar 2015, on page refreshes and makes him easy to find since it auto sorts by TD total
4. New Orleans is consistently is 60% or better in RZ TD% bar 2013 when it was 55.5%
Year - RZ Attempts - RZ Completion % - RZ TD/Attempt
2012 - 96 - 61.22% - 32.2%
2013 - 85 - 55.91% - 25.88%
2014 - 83 - 62.49% - 30.1%
2015 - 68 - 60.27% - 27.9%
2016 - 107 - 65.49% - 26.1%
Year - Inside 10 Attempts - Inside 10% - RZ TD/ Attempt
2012 - 54 - 58.93% - 42.59%
2013 - 35 - 50% - 40%
2014 - 34 - 61.11% - 47.05%
2015 - 24 - 48% - 41.667%
2016 - 51 - 67.35% - 40.74%
What I see in Drew Brees is bit less than twice the passing utilization in the red zone, variance inside the 10 on attempts, a depressed completion percentage relative to his career and a very consistent TD/Att % inside the 10 and the RZ.
We see a divergence between the two in terms of TD/Att and Completion % between both QBs inside the 10. Check out the RZ TD/Att. They aren't identical but they are neighbors on the same block. The total attempts are a given, we already can explain this in strategy, schematic differences and team composition. Brees is simply a prime mover of the offense period. But when you start comparing the value of those attempts it's clear to me anyway, that Brees>Wilson inside the 10.
Now is this a fair Apples to Apples comparison given where Brees is in his career arc? No, it's not. But the way that RW and Brees are similar QBs is their in their accuracy as passers in general and relative diminutive stature (as the argument I'm trying to shit on goes). Here's the wild thing though - those 5 years I selected for Brees were in fact the worst 5 year span in Comp%. His TD/Att hovered around 25% in the RZ and around 37.5% inside the 10 going back to 2007. 2006 he was way off from his career, huge outlier of a year. 2003 was also a bad year relative to his career average. But that pre 2006 era he had way lower utlization rates within the RZ similar to what RW has. I am digressing here.
The point is, it is hard for me to fathom that RW's height is THE factor in the red zone.
1. He doesn't get a ton of opportunities relative to other QBs thus heightening their seeming importance in the equation when the opposite should be the takeaway. He has less influence on RZ success than Drew Brees as the example shows. Drew Brees getting the lionshare isn't a coincidence either, it fits with his abilities outside of the RZ. Why would you go away from that?
2. So if RW is only getting around 60% of the RZ as Brees and a solid 20 something-per-season inside 10 attempts what the hell is happening on those other plays where he isn't passing or rushing? They are there.
3. We have no schematic divergence to compare against with a different OC. Anyone want to tell me how many different OCs Brees has had? If RW exhibits similar underperformance to himself situationally with a different OC we could start to see if it's a limitation of the RW himself, but we don't have that, we only have speculative arguments that his height is an impenetrable roadblock to RZ succes.
Which leads me to a conclusion on RW:
Bevell is the one who needs to crack the code here. Even if this a RW problem with height, I'll entertain that prop just for this point, even if this a RW problem, Bevell is literally the only one with any ability to do anything about it. If it truly is physical limitation then he has to start thinking of ways to better instead of just telling RW to do better.
If this is reflected in RW's utilization rates in the RZ and inside the 10, then the running game needs to pick up the load here.
Want to dig into that? Let's.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... ushing.htm
Edit: This is a huge pain in the ass, honestly. Even when exporting to excel it is mind numbing. And then trying to pull back out of excel what was put in so you guys can read it? Screw it. I'm gonna post brief summaries.
2016: Everyone sucked in the red zone getting less than 2 yards per carry. Every single back. Christine Michael was the best in terms of TD output but...well.. umm... there were a total of 9 TDs inside the red zone and he got 5 of them and he wasn't even on our team at the end of the season. Everyone else? Worse.
2015: Marshawn was the most utilized and the least effective in the RZ. Rawls led RBs with 2.81 YPC and had tied with Marshawn for 3 TDs. RW had 5.7 YPC and 1 TD. Marshawn was injured as well as Rawls.
2014: Lynch gets 2.53 YPC but had 12 TDs, RW had over 4 YPC and 5 TDs. Turbin got 3 YPC and 0 TDs.
2013: Lynch gets 2.35 YPC and had 12 TDs as well this year, RW with over 4 YPC, and 1 TD, nobody else worth mentioning.
2012: Lynch gets 2.68 YPC and 7 TDs, RW with over 4 YPC and 2 TDs, and Turbo got over 3 YPC.
Okay...well then.
But lets go deeper
From the 5.
Total TDs since YPC isn't going to be very meaningful or varried here. What am I seeking here? Information about our OL and RBs by distinace. Is it wrong to believe that OL play has a critical impact on short yardage TDs. It's hard to assign credit without looking at tape. But lets take a look anyway
2012: 6/16
2013: 10/14
2014: 7/20
2015: 7/10
2016:7/13
How about from between the 5 and the 10
2012: 0/16
2013: 1/14
2014: 8/20 (Russ had 4 from 5-10 yards, Marshawn also with 4!)
2015: 2/10
2016: 2/13
Okay, and now 10 to 20
2012: 4/16
2013: 4/14
2014: 2/20
2015: 1/10
2016: 0/10
So in doing this dive I had a few thoughts crop up:
1. Marshawn Lynch was invaluable in the RZ. He took over 60% of red zone snaps from 2012-2014. He didn't get over 3 YPC but he did score, a lot.
2. RW was ALSO invaluable rushing in the RZ. Over 4 YPC from 2012-2014.
3. 2015 is when it started unravelling. TDs drop off a cliff from the previous high water mark. Injuries to both Marshawn and Rawls played a factor here. RW's rushing did not factor in points unlike his 2014 season. But he also had a great passing season in the back stretch.
4. 2016 is what happens when nobody is healthy at RB.
5. The one thing that remains relatively consistent is 5 Yards or Less TDs never dips below 7. I can imagine a floor like this across many teams though where most rushing TDs most years come from 5 yards or less, no duh, right? Makes me wonder how much valuable information you can glean from stats that are relatively rare instances. It would be exhausting to go over tape for 70 TDs in the RZ over 5 years though.
6. Maybe the OL's transitions from 2014 to 2016 was less drastic in red zone running than the backs themselves being injured or bad.
Okay, lets move to the last aspect I can squeeze out of pro football reference, Red Zone Receiving:
So for shits and giggles I made Jimmy Graham an Honorary Seahawk from 2012-2014 to see what people are talking about when they say Bevell is misusing Jimmy. See if there's a case to be made there.
2012: Honorary Seahawk Jimmy Graham scored on 43% of his targets and would have led the Seahawks in targets in the RZ. Sidney Rice and Golden Tate were next in line with 14 and 12 targets respectively and each with 4 TDs. Baldwin, Miller, Robinson McCoy all hauled in 2 TDs with Lynch having one. Tate led in Catch % among him, Rice and Graham with 75% while Miller had 83.33% catch rate. Inside the 10, Jimmy had 4 TDs on 11 Targets. The intresting thing to note is Jimmy was targeted as a % by Brees by less than Rice was by Rice. Higher Volume but that TD per Target at 43% is unmatched.
2013: Honorary Seahawk Jimmy Graham leads again in targets, this time at 25 compared to Kearse and Miller at 10 each and Baldwin and Tate at 8 each. Graham once again hauls in a 44% TD per Target rate but was surpassed in that regard by Miller and Baldwin each with 50%. Kearse had 10% TD per target rate while Tate had 37.5%. Is it uncanny that Jimmy had less than 100 basis points difference in these two seasons despite an increase in volume and team target % up to 29.1%? Maybe.
2014. Once again Honorary Seahawk Jimmy Graham leads the team with 21 targets and 9 TDs good for 42% TD per Target rate. It's so consistent no matter the volume. All but 3 catchers were TD so he had a 57% catch rate. Baldwin 12 Targets with 2 TDs, Lynch had 10 targets with 4 TDs, Kearse with 8 targets and 1 TD but most astonishingly (that's sarcasm folks) his only catch was THAT TD. Yes. 12.5% catch rate. Helfest, Richards, Turbin, Moeaki, Coleman all round out the rest of the TDs. Helfet had a sub 50% catch rate as well.
2015: Jimmy is no longer honorary but is indeed a true Seahawk. Baldwin leads with 15 Targets and 5 TDs and Kearse Follows with 9 Targets for 3 TDs. Both posted above 60% with Kearse leading in catch rate among all WRs 67% in the RZ Bar Lockett who was only targeted twice for 1 TD and 1 catch. Where's Jimmy? 3rd in RZ Targets with a catch rate of 37.5%. New team and then a season injury, sure, that mitigates it a bit but after having 3 sticky seasons around 50% he not only loses volume of targets in the offense he doesn't get as many catches. Yes, he played 11 games but let me tell you how many TDs he had. 1. ONE!!! Okay, so lets just put that behind us and chalk it up to integration issues.
2016: Jimmy is a marvel of modern medical science and takes the field again. This time he leads the team in RZ targets but still posts a sub 50% catch rate. Baldwin is the TD king with Jimmy 2nd and Like Willson 3rd. Jimmy's team target rate is closer to his days in NOs but his TD and Catch rate are nowhere near it. Kearse is 3rd in targets but posts a laughably bad, i mean laughably bad 7.14% catch rate. Richard snags half is 4 targets and puts up 1 TD, spiller was good for making one of his 3 targets and only catch a TD, Wilson went 2 for 2 with 2 TDs and Wilson, that sly fox, caught his only target for a TD.
Thoughts:
Jimmy Graham is not being used the same as he was in NO. The volume is down yes, but the catch rates and TD rates are also down even though in this past season he was targeted closer in line with his NO days. Watching tape and comparing the routes, timing, throws, etc etc would probably cinch it but to me it is inarguable that JFG in NO is not the same JFG here. Yes, there was the season ending injury and yes, comebacks take time but man alive...I want honorary Seahawk Jimmy not actual Jimmy.
Also of note - Kearse only had a good 2015 in the RZ. He didn't get any targets there in 2012 being a rookie and all but his 2nd season, and a 50% catch rate in the RZ, he only posted one TD on a team leading 10 targets, tied with Zach MIller. His 3rd season in 2014 was a RZ disaster only eclipsed by his 2016 season. Golden Tate has more TD in the RZ from RW as a Seahawk than Jermaine Kearse does in 5 years with RW. Think about that for a moment. A dude who only played with RW for two years, has more TDs in the RZ than a player who has been top 3 in targets in the RZ among WRs and TEs for 4 years running.
I already had some convictions about this before going into it but I really am convinced Kearse is deadweight as a focal point of RZ point production. Whatever good he brings to the team has to be balanced by his mostly absent connect to RW in the RZ despite heavy effort to make it happen. Another conviction I had coming into this was Jimmy was not Jimmy here. Even accounting for the injuries and recovery, it is obvious he isn't even sniffing peak Jimmy as a RZ weapon. Yes, the targets are up, he is getting a lionshare of targets but the TDs aren't happening.
Secondly, how much more obvious is it that Doug Baldwin is on his own trajectory with Wilson. Whatever Bevell, Wilson and Baldwin are doing, they are doing it right. 2014 was weird with Baldwin only hauling in 2 TDs but he still retained a highly respectable 67% Catch rate on targets.
Lastly, Lockett and Richardson both have been mostly absent at all in the RZ. If you asked some of us if Baldwin, Graham, and Kearse with ML in the backfield were enough to make things happen in the RZ, you'd probably get a majority response of yes. But it is concerning to some extent that nobody has stepped up to replace Kearse's dead weight the past two seasons. Thre were injuries, yes, that happens, but I am concerned that a lack of depth at WR and RB are going to hamstring maxining out our opportunities on the field. If the team is forced to rely on Kearse as a top 3 RZ target I don't have high hopes for our RZ passing offense.
Overall thoughts:
1. I do believe that personnel has affected our RZ TD rates. Specifically our flux at RB the past 2 seasons has been very difficult. Rawls and Prosise have provided some great highlights but their health concerns are hurting the bottom line in the run game. Christine Michael being our TD leader last season is the most obvious sign of this. Is this incumbent on PCJS to do a better job in selecting talent that can stay healthy? Sure. It's part of why I like Chris Carson - he seems like a big tough dude. It's also why I like the Lacy signing - if he and Carson can get us a base of 7 TDs combined within 5 yards by doing the damn thing and punching it in, that would be good. If all our other backs can combine for 2 to 3 TDs outside of that distance it's gonna be an exciting season.
2. RW is not the fundamental problem in the RZ. He is not Drew Brees though. It is hard for me to buy that in spite of his overall greatness it all comes down to height. In the season where he took the team on his back in the last half of 2015, it didn't outweigh the anemic RZ run game present throughout. I imagine that's why the lower RZ attempts per game had a higher TD% - RW was carrying the team through it.
3. Bevell is screwed with the RB sitaution and there isn't much he can do about it but s help me, Jermaine Kearse is an obvious albatross in the RZ and this is something that Bevell, RW and Kearse either need to figure out or stop it now - I allow for the possibility that RW is given allowance to select Kearse in his progressions and sometimes he's the guy and it just doesn't happen, fine. Throw that shit out when you're in the RZ. Do not rely on Kearse as a focal point. In 4 seasons Kearse and RW have proved an unreliable hookup for points in the RZ. 4 Seasons and Golden Tate is out produced Kearse. This might be some bitter medicine for RW to swallow be he needs to be actively told to not rely on Kearse in the RZ to the point that Bevell should not put him on the field in the RZ. That's the conclusion I've come to from this.
Who do we put out there then? Luke Willson where JFG would be, JFG where Kearse would be. If it was a 2 TE set, Put Vannett out there and give him some experience. Done deal. Honestly, what does he have to lose in trying stuff like this out in the face of blithely allowing RW to miss Jermaine over and over and over again. It boggles the mind that a guy who helped ADB become the dude he is also has allowed Kearse to fester.
This might in fact be easier to pull off than recursively changing how he appraoches play design, play calling, or anything of the myriad things an OC might do to maximize his player's output. It will really frustrate me if Kearse turns in another turd of a season and none of our young WRs step up to make him expendable. Injuries have stood in the way of that a bit more than Bevell himself but not by much.
I didn't even touch the O line's follies but suffice to say, they've never been more than average even when great at run blocking. Their run blocking combined with the RB flux last year combined with RW's injuries was a perfect storm of suck but honestly if we assume a static below average O line year over year and measure our RBs and RW against that, the Hawks need to hit on an RB whether that's Lacy, Rawls, Carson, Prosise this season so that the marginal value the OL adds is maximized by the back's latent talent. Last years line wouldn't have helped Zeke get those guady rookie stats and none of our backs were close to the availability of Zeke.
And now my wife beckons.
