The GM Armchair - how to regain draft capital and cap space

[Seymour]

....forget it

 

[TwistedHusky]

McDowell and Pocic are these weird 'potential' superstars that never actually have done anything.

Remember the guy that used to hold that title was Tanner McEvoy. (Who I still think would have been a better safety than receiver)

Be careful what you wish for. McD doesn't exactly have amazing video either.

Pocic has some potential but the chance of him being more than an average starter isn't great.

For a town with bad traffic, grey weather and more than its share of rain....we sure are an optimistic bunch sometimes.

 

[Own The West]

Your suggestion puts our starting defense at:

LDE - Branden Jackson
LDT - Jarran Reed
RDT - Nazair Jones
RDE - Frank Clark
OLB - Michael Wilhoite
MLB - Bobby Wagner
OLB - KJ Wright
LCB - Byron Maxwell
RCB - Shaquill Griffin
SS - Delano Hill
FS - Bradley McDougald

Which is a worse lineup than we fielded the last 8 games of the season (when Sherman got hurt) that allowed 22.8 points/game which puts them in the bottom half of the league.

Now, assuming we draft genius and come up with 5 blue chippers. Is that going to be enough to put this defense in the top 10 again?

And that's ignoring we'll still need to fix our OL and RB situation.

You missed the part where trading ET, Sherman and Bennett, Lane, Avril will open up cap room to bring in top free agents while acquiring more draft capital. So Jackson, Wilhoite, Hill ect won't be relied upon as starters. You're also forgetting Dion Jordan and Malik McDowell.

I don't think it's a miss at all.

There isn't another ET or Sherman, so you will not replace them -- and even if there were, FA would be more expensive, not less.

And let's say Jordan and McDowell come back and play at a high level. We'll have no depth. Mike B played 84% of defensive snaps this year and S.Rich about 60%. Those are huge shoes to fill and nobody behind them.

 

[massari]

I don't think it's a miss at all.

There isn't another ET or Sherman, so you will not replace them -- and even if there were, FA would be more expensive, not less.

And let's say Jordan and McDowell come back and play at a high level. We'll have no depth. Mike B played 84% of defensive snaps this year and S.Rich about 60%. Those are huge shoes to fill and nobody behind them.

ET is a free agent after next season and will likely want a lot more money if he signs with a team other than the Cowboys.

Sherman is 30 coming off a major injury. If they can get a draft pick for him then it may be best to do it and clear the $11M in cap room.

The proposed depth without Bennett would be:

Clark
McDowell
Jordan
1st round pick
2nd round pick
One or two vet free agents - Sheldon Richardson, Kony Ealy, Junior Galette, William Hayes,Tank Carradine, Alex Okafor, ect

 

[rjdriver]

I enjoyed the post very much. I appreciate the time put into it. I just can’t see losing Earl right now, he plays with such ferocity, i don’t think we could recover from his loss.

The other issue is HOW we have drafted of late in the earlier rounds. If we use the draft capital accumulated from trading studs like Earl and Richard Sherman to draft a guy in the first or second we could have got in the third or fourth, it would be an awful transaction. It seems to be our MO as of late...or as a long time actually.
I do think it’s time to move Bennett and hope we can salvage something from Malik.

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

Getting cheaper and younger on the defense is inevitable.

Defensive players Seattle seems to hit on more often. I think the team just has a much better eye for talent on that side of the ball.

The advantage for that approach, is that defensive rookies will make a bigger impact early in their careers. It's a bad year for needing a safety. But I don't doubt there is a handful that capture this teams' attention.

The reality is, Seattle sent away a lot of draft capital this year and next. Injuries are becoming an annual issue for the core players. Thomas is a real tough one to let go. Also has the most capital in return.

A lot of these core players are in their final year (Thomas, Sherman, Wright, Avril, Clark). It is unwise to sign guys to third contracts. They succumb to age and we can already see that with this group. Like it or not, Seattle is already in the nascent stages of a roster refresh. And this team doesn't have the draft capital to make that happen.

Something will have to give. As much as looking at what the defense will look like hurts without them. The reality is that many or most of those players will be gone after this season. If we think that we have another legitimate championship run with this group -- then we should stick with them.

If we think that the last three years pattern of the LOB missing members for the majority of the season persists into next year -- then it's probably time to rethink. I said it a couple years ago that there will come a time when the names on the jerseys don't play like the names we have grown to love. That time appears to have already arrived. Certainly Bennett had a very poor year despite adding Richardson who gobbled up most of Bennett's double teams. He was a great addition who didn't turn out great for the defense. But looking at how we played, it was clear to me that the stalwarts we've come to expect excellence from struggled.

At this point, we are exactly at the "is it better to trade them a year early than a year too late" stage. Actually it's either trade them early or settle for mid round 2020 comp picks. Which are basically worthless for the purposes of this program.

I'm not averse to letting guys go a year early. This is the final year for many of these guys. If we're going to get some real contribution from this year's draft class then it'll almost assuredly have to come on the defensive side.

This roster is no longer a top 10 defense in the NFL. 11th in yards allowed, 13th in points and 20th in rushing yards allowed. For a team whose blueprint for winning requires that -- it's something that honestly should be considered.

This is a draft where there is a lot of decent talent in the 25-90 range. It's a draft where you'd like to have 4 picks in the 2nd through 3rd rounds. We have zero. There isn't a Thomas. But there are good secondaries in this league that don't have a FS like Earl.

The case could be made to redo this roster and to do it this year. Specifically, there is no other option to recoup draft capital if we don't trade them before this draft. So either we're going to get something going forward or we're going to hope that we will be healthy all year for the first time since 2013, and the clear decline in quality early in the year when this team was 100% healthy defensively was a mirage.

 

[original poster]

Whether or not those trades are realistic, let's say you get the 15 picks by trading away the players you suggest and trading down, etc.

Your suggestion puts our starting defense at:

LDE - Branden Jackson
LDT - Jarran Reed
RDT - Nazair Jones
RDE - Frank Clark
OLB - Michael Wilhoite
MLB - Bobby Wagner
OLB - KJ Wright
LCB - Byron Maxwell
RCB - Shaquill Griffin
SS - Delano Hill
FS - Bradley McDougald

But realistically could look like this -

LDE - 1st round pick/Dion Jordan
LDT - Jarran Reed/Malik McDowell
RDT - Sheldon Richardson/Nazair Jones
RDE - Frank Clark
OLB - 3rd round pick
MLB - Bobby Wagner
OLB - KJ Wright
LCB - Byron Maxwell/4th round pick
RCB - Shaquill Griffin
SS - FA/Delano Hill
FS - Bradley McDougald

I think we let Kam and Avril go, by choice or not. Resign KJ and Brown. Resign Graham OR S. Richardson; Resign P. Richardson OR Lockett. Keep Earl, Sherm and Bennett, but look for their replacements in the draft (again).

Where's the cap room for all those signings? Not to mention getting the roster up to 53.

 

[original poster]

Part of my logic behind my suggestions is my (general) hate for 3rd contracts. More often than not they turn around and ruin the depth chart/cap position.

There are so many variables both for and against keeping Earl and Sherman, so many.

With a win forever mentality, though, Earl and Sherm hamper that. They're getting older, they don't have the same hunger, the same chip on their shoulder, they've proved themselves (that probably applies more to Sherm than Earl).

The way I see it you've basically got 3 options -

Trade Earl this off season where you get good value, good cap relief but with a downgrade at the position (although we're not talking about a Steven Terrell drop here)

Keep Earl this off season, let him play out his contract and go to whatever team he wants. No cap relief (in the literal sense), the possibility of a good comp pick in the 2020 draft

Keep Earl this off season and either extend him now or at the end of 2018. We are then in a very real possibility where we are paying huge amounts of money for an injured player whose only contribution to the team is a hammered salary cap. Equally, though, they could extend him and he plays at a very high level until he's 35. I don't know that he won't and neither does anyone else so you have to go on assumptions and probabilities, much in the same way the front office does.


I'll be the first to say that If I didn't see what McDougald looked like at FS there would be no way I'd even suggest the trade. And of course, this is all on the assumption that McDouglad actually would return to Seattle. I see no reason why he wouldn't, especially if it was for the starting free safety role, but there's no guarantees. There's also no guarantees that we trade Earl and McDougald goes down for the season. Then we really are in Steven Terrell 2.0 territory.

Keep the defense young, hungry and off third contracts (excluding Bobby) is a good formula to me.

 

[lukerguy]

I'm all for that with the exception of Earl for 19.

I think the defense falls apart without Earl.

 

[Steve2222]

Yeah there’s no way Sherm is getting a 2 in return and Bennett a third. Looking more like 4 best case scenario for Sherm and 5 for Bennett. Also, I think the only realistic way ET gets traded is a Top 10 pick, and I don’t think a team would do that.

 

[LudwigsDrummer]

If we can sign BMax and Shead, I'm good with trading Sherm. No way we get a high pick, maybe a 5th at best. Whoever trades for him is taking a big risk so value is limited.
Bennett's guarantee doesn't save us much cap relief in 18 but does in 19. Maybe he stays if no traders.
Trade ET next year before the deadline.

 

[original poster]

If we can sign BMax and Shead, I'm good with trading Sherm. No way we get a high pick, maybe a 5th at best. Whoever trades for him is taking a big risk so value is limited.
Bennett's guarantee doesn't save us much cap relief in 18 but does in 19. Maybe he stays if no traders.
Trade ET next year before the deadline.

Impossible to trade ET next year, he is a free agent after the 2018 season.

 

[original poster]

I'm all for that with the exception of Earl for 19.

I think the defense falls apart without Earl.

I'd wager that provided McDougald replaces him we'd be just fine.

We were when he missed a few games this season.

 

[lukerguy]

We don't need to wager, really, just look at the 2nd half of 2016.

 

[lukerguy]

we lost to the Redskins on late game big plays down the field, and beat the Cards.

I see your point that we were "fine".. But they looked terrible without him the year prior with a larger sample size.

I'm not sure you give up earl unless you can get a top 10 pick as another post mentioned. I don't think the Hawks are going to blow it up...

Keep in mind, with a reasonable FG kicker, they would have had 3 more wins, perhaps #2 seed.

I do agree that they may move on from Bennett and Sherm, but I really would be surprised to see Earl go. He's a HOFer and an emotional leader still under 30.

We'll see.

 

[original poster]

We don't need to wager, really, just look at the 2nd half of 2016.

Struggling to see your point?

We looked awful when Earl went down in 2016 with Steven Terrell taking the spot but looked absolutely fine when Earl went down in 2017 and McDougald covered him?

 

[lukerguy]

Mcdougal may be average, and we may be "okay" without him, but McDougal does not change the game like this:

[youtube]f8UVvg35Z9w[/youtube]

and this:
[youtube]PKtJlrlZ80s[/youtube]

That's just 2 games this year we would have lost without Earl. We may have won WSH with Earl.

This is just from last year, there are another 10-20 game altering plays I can find for you throughout his career.. You don't give up these players in their prime.

 

[massari]

McDougald+Eric Reid+1st round pick > Earl Thomas

 

[original poster]

If Earl was to be extended this off season his contract may look something like this -

4 year extension signing him through 2022

I say he wants to be the highest paid safety in the league, so $13.5M average per year - $54M total value

$20M signing bonus

2018 - $5.5M base salary, $5.9M prorated bonus - cap number of $11.4M
2019 - $6.5M base salary, $4M prorated bonus - cap number of $10.5M
2020 - $8.5M base salary, $4M prorated bonus - cap number of $12.5M
2021 - $10.5M base salary, $4M prorated bonus - cap number of $14.5M
2022 - $11.5M base salary, $4M prorated bonus - cap number of $15.5M

Considering he has missed (I think??) 9 games between 2016 and 2017 that contract scares me, somewhat.

 

[hawk45]

McDougald+Eric Reid+1st round pick > Earl Thomas

So Reid at SS in this scenario?

Reid will cost a ton and isn't much younger than Earl. Instead of having an all-world FS for our single-high defense we'd have an excellent SS and a decent FS. It's a huge risk for a small *potential* incremental gain.

I submit that with our draft history in the first round, ET+McDougald > McDougald+Eric Reid+1st round pick. Both Reid (we aren't guaranteed to get him, and don't know his price tag) and the first round pick are the biggest risks in that inequality, and they are both on the RHS.

Anyone else on the defense I can see it. But with Wagner and Thomas the likelihood by far is that we don't bring back enough value to replace them. Unless they were making outlandish contract demands, and they haven't, they are untouchable.