The draft prospect we should keep a closer eye on at #26

[theENGLISHseahawk]

Secondly -- I think he could have some use in Seattle but he isn't a pass rusher. Mo Wilkerson, who he gets compared to, was a terrific pass rusher in college. Butler played a bevy of weak opponents in college and was never a pass rusher. That, IMO, limits his stock as a draft prospect. Now maybe they believe they can get that out of him -- but it's a question mark. And I can't see the Seahawks drafting a non-pass rushing D-liner in round one.

He's not? There's different types of pass rushers. From what I saw of him, I think he could be disruptive and it's not a stretch to anticipate he will get better and better. He also creates openings for teammates.

Able to eat up double teams and keep his linebackers clean when asked to. Excellent athleticism. Can make plays all along the line of scrimmage. If blocker doesn’t finish, Butler will work himself back into the play. Able to coordinate hands and feet smoothly and has change of direction and closing burst to become a dominant pass rusher from inside. Can slide from gap to gap as a pass rusher and is a perfect fit for twist-­based defense. Generally attacks gaps with forward lean and ability to corner the edge when he has his man beat. Can stutter-­step into pass rush to disrupt offensive lineman’s timing or generate a speed-­to-­power bull rush that can severely dent a pocket. Gives consistent effort and plays like a lead dog looking to eat.

BOTTOM LINE Athletic interior lineman with long arms and outstanding athleticism that allows him to work on offensive linemen with a combination of power and quickness. Butler has a raw but diverse skillset as a pass rusher that should excite NFL evaluators who see the potential of what he can be with more coaching and experience. With his effort and defensive ball awareness, his ceiling appears to be high with a chance to become a high-­level starter for an odd or even front defense.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/ ... id=2555243

Just my own personal opinion, but I find Lance Zierlein's takes on NFL.com to be slightly bizarre overall. So with the greatest respect, I'm not going to be swayed by his take here. He says he has raw potential. To me all that means is he hasn't done it yet. I would counter by saying -- I want an early round defensive lineman to be an effective pass rusher on talent alone when he's facing the rank bad teams Butler faced. I want to hone his technique -- not create a pass rusher suddenly against vastly superior opponents.

I've watched four Louisiana Tech games and Butler never looked like a pass rusher. He can be disruptive, of course, he wouldn't be going to the league if he didn't have the occasional play in the backfield. But let's be right here -- there was zero evidence on tape of him moving QB's off the spot, recording splash plays, even impacting the passing game much at all really.

Wilkerson was an absolute beast at Temple as a pass rusher. Butler, even against weak competition, never got anywhere close to that.

I think Butler could be good as a run-stopping nose or one tech. He could play anywhere on a bigger 3-4 front. But an 8-10 sack guy -- I don't see it.

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

A few thoughts here....

Firstly -- Butler certainly improved his stock at his pro-day. But when I put his updated numbers through the TEF formula he scored a 3.13. That's not bad -- but it's a different world away from Sheldon Rankins' #2 overall 3.52. Not only that, Butler actually tested weaker in TEF than Bullard (3.18), Billings (3.23), Hargrave (3.33), Blair III (3.35) and many others. His score relative to the rest of D-linemen in the draft was bottom half.

Secondly -- I think he could have some use in Seattle but he isn't a pass rusher. Mo Wilkerson, who he gets compared to, was a terrific pass rusher in college. Butler played a bevy of weak opponents in college and was never a pass rusher. That, IMO, limits his stock as a draft prospect. Now maybe they believe they can get that out of him -- but it's a question mark. And I can't see the Seahawks drafting a non-pass rushing D-liner in round one.

See this is where TEF has some issues, only because it does not account discrapancies between weight.

Lets say Seahawks normalize TEF at 3.00 but add a weight multiplier i.e. 300 pounds = 3.00.

For instance lets 9 would be the target number.

This would be instrumental because players in the 270-300 range obviously should be more explosive than players in the 300-330 carry less weight. So its possible if a guy weighs 275 that he needs just enough TEF to get close to that target.

Take Bullard for example is weighted score would be 3.18 × 2.85 for 9.06.

Rankins would be 3.54 x 3.03 for 10.73

Butler would 10.12.

Rankins is still is more explosive than Butler. However, Butler is more explosive than Bullard than he give credit for in TEF.

324-285 = 39 pounds.

So the fact that Butler is at 3.13 at 324 and Bullard is at only 3.18 at 285 is not weaker.

You add in Butlers versatility to the mix and that elite length with very suberb athleticism for his size at only 21 years old.

If the kid can be coached up, dude has all the attributes to be a special player.

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

I only use TEF for comparisons sake to the O-line. The offensive lineman are generally sized in a similar way so it's less of an issue. My view on Butler is only mildly impacted by TEF.

Certainly TEF does not account for size and in that sense could be improved. It might be something I look into in the future but probably not ahead of this draft with it so close down the road.

 

[kearly]

Mo Wilkerson, who he gets compared to, was a terrific pass rusher in college. Butler played a bevy of weak opponents in college and was never a pass rusher.

Wilkerson also played for a small school, in fairness. Really the difference is that Wilkerson put it together in college and Butler has not yet done so. Seattle's past history shows them to be less scared off by this fact than most teams are.

I think Seattle tend to value production at D-end but at DT they've mostly drafted guys with meh production. Jordan Hill, Greg Scruggs, Jaye Howard, EJ Wilson, etc. It's also worth noting that these guys didn't score especially high in "TEF" either.

I'm not "hyped" on Butler and personally I'd probably grade him as a 2nd round pick (I don't have a 1st round grade on ANY DT this year). That said, I suspect that Seattle likes Butler more than people think.

 

[TeamoftheCentury]

Secondly -- I think he could have some use in Seattle but he isn't a pass rusher. Mo Wilkerson, who he gets compared to, was a terrific pass rusher in college. Butler played a bevy of weak opponents in college and was never a pass rusher. That, IMO, limits his stock as a draft prospect. Now maybe they believe they can get that out of him -- but it's a question mark. And I can't see the Seahawks drafting a non-pass rushing D-liner in round one.

He's not? There's different types of pass rushers. From what I saw of him, I think he could be disruptive and it's not a stretch to anticipate he will get better and better. He also creates openings for teammates.

Able to eat up double teams and keep his linebackers clean when asked to. Excellent athleticism. Can make plays all along the line of scrimmage. If blocker doesn’t finish, Butler will work himself back into the play. Able to coordinate hands and feet smoothly and has change of direction and closing burst to become a dominant pass rusher from inside. Can slide from gap to gap as a pass rusher and is a perfect fit for twist-­based defense. Generally attacks gaps with forward lean and ability to corner the edge when he has his man beat. Can stutter-­step into pass rush to disrupt offensive lineman’s timing or generate a speed-­to-­power bull rush that can severely dent a pocket. Gives consistent effort and plays like a lead dog looking to eat.

BOTTOM LINE Athletic interior lineman with long arms and outstanding athleticism that allows him to work on offensive linemen with a combination of power and quickness. Butler has a raw but diverse skillset as a pass rusher that should excite NFL evaluators who see the potential of what he can be with more coaching and experience. With his effort and defensive ball awareness, his ceiling appears to be high with a chance to become a high-­level starter for an odd or even front defense.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/ ... id=2555243

Just my own personal opinion, but I find Lance Zierlein's takes on NFL.com to be slightly bizarre overall. So with the greatest respect, I'm not going to be swayed by his take here. He says he has raw potential. To me all that means is he hasn't done it yet. I would counter by saying -- I want an early round defensive lineman to be an effective pass rusher on talent alone when he's facing the rank bad teams Butler faced. I want to hone his technique -- not create a pass rusher suddenly against vastly superior opponents.

I've watched four Louisiana Tech games and Butler never looked like a pass rusher. He can be disruptive, of course, he wouldn't be going to the league if he didn't have the occasional play in the backfield. But let's be right here -- there was zero evidence on tape of him moving QB's off the spot, recording splash plays, even impacting the passing game much at all really.

Wilkerson was an absolute beast at Temple as a pass rusher. Butler, even against weak competition, never got anywhere close to that.

I think Butler could be good as a run-stopping nose or one tech. He could play anywhere on a bigger 3-4 front. But an 8-10 sack guy -- I don't see it.

Thanks for the reply. You definitely have your opinion. And, you're "blood" (ie: fellow Seahawks fan), so I'll tend to go with your overall opinion over Zierlein's. But, really... ANY of those "expert" (published? ha!) opinions would suffice to just say that there's other's observations of the All-Conference DT. Maybe the Wilkerson comp is a stretch.

Zero evidence though? Come on. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgOxjWwxtVo Check out two plays starting at 1:11 on the timeline. Bats down two passes there. 1:25 moves the QB. 2:00 mark where he blows up Evan Boehm who played a higher level of competition than Butler in college and is the 4th rated Center in the draft. (Don't get me going on that one - Lol.) Anyway, took me mere minutes to surface those examples. Deflected passes have led to big things for the Seahawks!

I want an early round defensive lineman to be an effective pass rusher on talent alone when he's facing the rank bad teams Butler faced. I want to hone his technique -- not create a pass rusher suddenly against vastly superior opponents.

I agree that I wouldn't take him in the first round. But, it's sort of saying that you prefer a DT who can do "This but not that" yet vs. a DT who can do "That but not this" yet. They all have work to do, no matter what they did in college. Maybe Butler was more asked to contain and eat space and open up the pass rush or others.

Lineman who had success at the college level don't automatically see their pass rush skills make the jump against "vastly superior opponents" either. The game is tougher for EVERY draft pick coming from college to the pros no matter how guaranteed it looks. Exhibit A: college pass rush extraordinaire Aaron Curry.

Butler will have to elevate his game against better talent just like every other drafted college player who has any hopes to make it in the league no matter where they're drafted. Pass rush isn't just a guy running fast around a slower OT. Even as convinced as we all might be that Rankins will be a dominant pass rushing DT, we can't possibly know until we see it proven on the field.

There are DT's that exemplify elite pass rush skills. Butler's pass rush may not be Aaron Donald good or even Sheldon Rankins good (he likely won't be there at #26, either.) But, he's effective at what he does. Again, I didn't have to look long to find that he's done more as a pass rusher than you're willing to give him credit. But, there are DT's that don't appear to have much potential as pass rushers. Butler at least has some skills there with potential to get better. When it comes down to it, every prospect is a roll of the dice.

 

[kearly]

I'm all for looking at testing numbers, but I also take into account the player's height, weight, and arm length. Yes, Bullard and Blair have a better TEF, but Butler is 40 lbs heavier than both Bullard and Blair. So, for me, I would expect the much lighter d-lineman to test better at the combine. Then there is Billings who has a very good TEF, but for me that is very misleading. Watching his game tape he looks like a linear player, he struggles to change direction. Billing's very poor 3-cone and short shuttle solidified what I saw on tape. Hargrave has a much better TEF than Butler, but again Butler is 15 lbs heavier than Hargrave.

- Butler is heavier, in some cases by as much as 40 lbs, than the players you mentioned.
- Butler has the longest arms. 3 1/2 inches longer than Hargrave.
- Butler's agility and balance flashes is evident on tape.

For me, Butler is the Germain Ifedi of DT's.


Butler has unique size and athleticism that the Seahawks like in their players. He has all the tools to be a disruptive Pro Bowl level DT. He is not a finished product, if he were he would be a top-10 prospect.

Excellent analysis. This entire post has a ring of truth to it.

I would also add that there is a difference between being a spandex athlete and an athlete in pads. Butler looks like an explosive athlete on the field and seems to be handful for interior OL on most snaps. I was expecting Butler to dominate the combine since on tape he looked like the most athletic DT in the draft. His spandex performance wasn't all that special, but the tape is still there and on tape he looked quick and strong.

The combine and pro-days are not the last word. They are simply one of many pieces of information. A good or bad combine performance merely informs us about a player; it causes us to go back and revisit the tape to see if there was anything we missed.

Seattle's limited history at DT suggests they value DTs with a quick first step and good arm length, both of these factors would point them towards Butler.

Regarding Billings, the more I watch him the more I have concerns. His upper body strength is awesome, but his arms are probably too short for him to be a "moves" pass rusher and he's not agile enough to win by shooting gaps. He's top heavy and his lower body strength against the run leaves a lot to be desired, especially against double teams. Basically, he's an elite level prospect at pushing the pocket, but is average or worse in all other categories. If pushing the pocket is something Seattle wants then great, but I think Seattle prefers DTs with a well rounded skillset.

FWIW, Butler and Hargrave are my two favorite DTs this year. Neither of them are true 1st tier prospects for me, but both flash obvious potential and are valued lower than they should be by pundits.

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

Mo Wilkerson, who he gets compared to, was a terrific pass rusher in college. Butler played a bevy of weak opponents in college and was never a pass rusher.

Wilkerson also played for a small school, in fairness. Really the difference is that Wilkerson put it together in college and Butler has not yet done so. Seattle's past history shows them to be less scared off by this fact than most teams are.

I think Seattle tend to value production at D-end but at DT they've mostly drafted guys with meh production. Jordan Hill, Greg Scruggs, Jaye Howard, EJ Wilson, etc. It's also worth noting that these guys didn't score especially high in "TEF" either.

I'm not "hyped" on Butler and personally I'd probably grade him as a 2nd round pick (I don't have a 1st round grade on ANY DT this year). That said, I suspect that Seattle likes Butler more than people think.

In fairness, Hill actually did score well in TEF.

Howard didn't hit 3.00 but had a very good short shuttle (4.47). Hill's is 4.51. So they both had physical characteristics to identify.

 

[nanomoz]

Great stuff, Kip.

Dude is so raw, in the footage above, it seems as though he has never heard the phrase "low man wins." Looks like a pure 34 5-tech to me, he should lose 30 lbs for that role.

 

[MysterMatt]

Interesting player, but I fell asleep watching his film. He made a few plays but hardly seemed a difference maker. He did manage some good QB hurries as well. I didn't really see a 1st rounder.


Sent from my iPhone, which is way better than Roland's Nokia.

 

[kearly]

Howard didn't hit 3.00 but had a very good short shuttle (4.47).

I definitely think there are traits Seattle looks for on the DL. Arm length and loosely defined explosiveness seem to be things they go after. TEF is great... but I think that's really just for Cable.

In fairness, Hill actually did score well in TEF.

Hill's is 4.51. So they both had physical characteristics to identify.

Jordan Hill had the following TEF scores:

Combine:

28 / 27 reps - 1.03703703704
8'07"' / 9' (^3) broad - 0.86744192322
22.5" / 31 vert - 0.72580645161

TEF: 2.63

Pro-day:

28 / 27 reps - 1.03703703704
9'03"' / 9' (^3) broad - 1.08566958163
30" / 31 vert- 0.96774193548

TEF: 3.09

Combine / Pro-day link

Hill was also pretty light at only 303 pounds. When factoring low weight and the large discrepancy between his combine and pro-day, you could viably chalk him up as an example but I'd put an asterisk on it. To me the data shows him to be a fairly average athlete.

 

[Seafan]

The Hawks draft their favorite DT @26 or trade down.

 

[TwilightError]

As I was reading about Butler, I came across a draft prospect DE called Jihad Ward and the words 'great competitor'... That leads me to thinking... Is #26 too early?

 

[ivotuk]

I see Vernon Butler strictly as a run stopper, Brandon Mebane type. Not a pass rusher at all, that's why I see him as a fringe first rounder, and maybe more appropriately a 2nd rounder. But we need someone behind Tuba to plug the middle in the NFCW. And Butler can do that.

But, Andrew Billings is much better at it, and he blows through opposing offensive lines and sling guys to the ground the same way Ndomakung Suh does. Now he's not Suh, but they both like to sling guys to the ground in borderline penalty fashion. THat's the kind of brutality I want in the middle of my defensive line.

But if he's gone, and there's not a suitable LT to take there, I take Vernon Butler for his run stopping ability and his "possible" upside.

I always wonder why he went to La Tech though. IIRC, there were offers from other schools.

 

[EverydayImRusselin]

Billings look more explosive to me, but when I watch his tape I can't help but notice how often a RB blows right through the hole he just vacated. It's almost uncanny how often it happens.

 

[12thman.garydrake]

Please no V.Butler. Im not seeing him finish the plays and missing to many tackles. Does not look good to me. But what do i know, im just a fan. I want a guy that shows he wants to make the play, not follow the play in slow motion.

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

Hill was also pretty light at only 303 pounds. When factoring low weight and the large discrepancy between his combine and pro-day, you could viably chalk him up as an example but I'd put an asterisk on it. To me the data shows him to be a fairly average athlete.

Hill's 4.51 short shuttle is very good for 300lbs -- and his 3.09 is only 0.09 off Jonathan Bullard. I think it's very harsh to call him an average athlete. Not sure either why we would question the improvement on his combine numbers at his pro day. Didn't Vernon Butler just do exactly the same thing (average combine, much better pro day)?

I don't think the Seahawks will ever take an average athlete as early as round three again, certainly not after what happened to Moffitt.

 

[Hasselbeck]

I always wonder why he went to La Tech though. IIRC, there were offers from other schools.

http://247sports.com/Recruitment/Vernon ... tInterests

Only school better than LA Tech at the time was Ole Miss. And who is to say how much he'd play there.

LA Tech is actually a pretty strong mid major program in football. They won 9 games in 3 of Butler's 4 years at the school.

Anyway - not real important, just a fun nugget. I'm not on board with this guy at 26, but kearly laid out some interesting points.

 

[titan3131]

All the hoopla about J Hill progressing this last year, staying healthy by eating enough collagen like he said was causing his injury issue.

Really disappointing when guys are lame till the contract year.

J hill
Marsh
Dodd
King
Kpl
Are all on my shit list and need to be replaced.

That's why we need 2 dt and at least 1 de

Bennett and avril aren't forever young

 

[Hasselbeck]

All the hoopla about J Hill progressing this last year, staying healthy by eating enough collagen like he said was causing his injury issue.

Really disappointing when guys are lame till the contract year.

J hill
Marsh
Dodd
King
Kpl
Are all on my shit list and need to be replaced.

That's why we need 2 dt and at least 1 de

Bennett and avril aren't forever young

Way too early to give up on KPL and Hill. Not every guy is Russell Wilson or Bobby Wagner where you just plug them in and they blow up. Even Michael Bennett took a few years to get going. Marshawn Lynch was pretty average in Buffalo. Some guys just need a few years to get acclimated to the speed and training of professional sports.

I agree we need some depth at DL, but our OL depth is so much more depleted. That's why I am praying we go OT at 26 and address our DL depth sometime in Rounds 2-3

 

[titan3131]

They will be looking at a right tackle only at 26.

There is no guard that is good enough to be a first rounder, cable has made it known he wants a huge hulk at right tackle hence J Webb the interest in Ifedi.

Really interested in what's gonna happen.

Its rankins/butler or ifedi maybe Coleman at 26. Anything else won't make sense.

Hill is in year 4, he has had the chances even healthy last year he couldnt make it happen. Kpl had a shot and blew it. Cassius has no sacks in 2 years, Dodd king Francis have shown nothing.

These are guys that have been around, there is no hype around them and letting them stagnate on the roster is the opposite of our always compete mantra.

Maybe actually having real competition ie play better or lose your job will get them to figure it out. Or they can gtfo