Seeding scenarios for the NFC

[renofox]

Following are week 17 possible outcomes with resultant seeding.

These 3 games will decide the top 3 seeds:

Seahawks>49ers, Bears>Packers, Panthers>Saints; Seahawks(1), Packers(2), Saints(3)
Seahawks>49ers, Bears>Packers, Saints>Panthers; Saints(1), Seahawks(2), Packers(3)
Seahawks>49ers, Packers>Bears, Panthers>Saints; Packers(1), Seahawks(2), Saints(3)
Seahawks>49ers, Packers>Bears, Saints>Panthers; Packers(1), Saints(2), Seahawks(3)
49ers>Seahawks; Seahawks(3)

These 3 games will decide the wild card seeds:

Cards>Rams, Bears>Packers; Bucs (5), Bears (6), Cards(7)
Cards>Rams, Packers>Bears; Bucs (5), Cards (6), Rams (7)
Rams>Cards, Bucs>Falcons ; Bucs (5), Rams (6), Bears (7)
Rams>Cards, Falcons>Bucs ; Rams (5), Bucs (6), Bears (7)

NOTES:

Cards win and in, lose and out.
Rams in with win or with Packers win.

1st most likely outcome - Seahawks 3 seed and 1st game Rams@Seattle.
2nd most likely outcome - Seahawks 3 seed and 1st game Cards@Seattle.
Pretty slim odds for Seahawks 1 seed.
Not a bad chance for 2 seed, then most likely Bears@Seattle.

Cards win + Packers win = 3 NFC West teams in playoffs.

With the Packers/Bears game being the most decisive, it will probably flex to SNF. Therefore, the Seahawks "should" be playing to win against the 49ers since a chance at a better seed will be on the line.

 

[JGreen79]

I actually think they will move the Packers and Saints game to the afternoon. This will have all four games running at the same time like they did in 2017.

 

[renofox]

I actually think they will move the Packers and Saints game to the afternoon. This will have all four games running at the same time like they did in 2017.

Didn't think of that. You're probably right. I'm sure they'll find an East Coast AFC game for SNF.

 

[renofox]

Following are week 17 possible outcomes with resultant seeding.

These 3 games will decide the top 3 seeds:

Seahawks>49ers, Bears>Packers, Panthers>Saints; Seahawks(1), Packers(2), Saints(3)
Seahawks>49ers, Bears>Packers, Saints>Panthers; Saints(1), Seahawks(2), Packers(3)
Seahawks>49ers, Packers>Bears, Panthers>Saints; Packers(1), Seahawks(2), Saints(3)
Seahawks>49ers, Packers>Bears, Saints>Panthers; Packers(1), Saints(2), Seahawks(3)
49ers>Seahawks; Seahawks(3)

These 3 games will decide the wild card seeds:

Cards>Rams, Bears>Packers; Bucs (5), Bears (6), Cards(7)
Cards>Rams, Packers>Bears; Bucs (5), Cards (6), Rams (7)
Rams>Cards, Bucs>Falcons ; Bucs (5), Rams (6), Bears (7)
Rams>Cards, Falcons>Bucs ; Rams (5), Bucs (6), Bears (7)

NOTES:

Cards win and in, lose and out.
Rams in with win or with Packers win.

1st most likely outcome - Seahawks 3 seed and 1st game Rams@Seattle.
2nd most likely outcome - Seahawks 3 seed and 1st game Cards@Seattle.
Pretty slim odds for Seahawks 1 seed.
Not a bad chance for 2 seed, then most likely Bears@Seattle.

Cards win + Packers win = 3 NFC West teams in playoffs.

With the Packers/Bears game being the most decisive, it will probably flex to SNF. Therefore, the Seahawks "should" be playing to win against the 49ers since a chance at a better seed will be on the line.

Updated my thinking. Seahawks get #2 seed and play Cards at home.

 

[vonstout]

With Goff’s broken thumb, that puts the Cardsina much better spot. The Rams backup is Wolford. They would have to win on the ground. I don’t see the Packers losing to the Bears but we can hope. I think we will get Arizona

 

[renofox]

With Goff’s broken thumb, that puts the Cardsina much better spot. The Rams backup is Wolford. They would have to win on the ground. I don’t see the Packers losing to the Bears but we can hope. I think we will get Arizona

Packers have not been playing well. Bears have been playing well. Probably still a long shot but I have a feeling it will happen. It would also keep the Seahawks from having to go to Lambeau. :2thumbs:

 

[vonstout]

Packers looked past the Jags like we did the Giants, but they still won. They destroyed the Titans tonight. The Bears beat the Vikes, Texans, and Jags. Before that they lost to Detroit and got killed by GB. The only team they’ve beat that has a winning record is Tampa. I’d love to see the Bears win, but not much of a chance.

 

[Keyhawk]

Thank you thank you for posting this synopsis.

Just as an update, the Sunday night game will be Washington at Philadelphia.

 

[zchurch74]

Good call JGreen. Shefty just tweeted the updated game times and the Hawks, Saints, and Packers now all play at 4:25 ET

 

[oldhawkfan]

With Goff’s broken thumb, that puts the Cardsina much better spot. The Rams backup is Wolford. They would have to win on the ground. I don’t see the Packers losing to the Bears but we can hope. I think we will get Arizona

Packers have not been playing well. Bears have been playing well. Probably still a long shot but I have a feeling it will happen. It would also keep the Seahawks from having to go to Lambeau. :2thumbs:

This is a huge rivalry game. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see the Bears win.

 

[JPatera76]

I’d like to see the bears wins




Or face the Rams again.

 

[Polaris]

So here's the full skinny for the NFC Playoff picture. I usually post full analysis this time of year but Covid and other considerations made me not do it this year.

1) The three top seeds of the NFC are set: Packers, Saints, Seahawks.
1a) If the Packers win, then the Packers get the top seed no matter what. If the saints also win, they are the two seed. If the Saints lose and Seattle wins, then Seattle becomes the two seed.
1b) If the Packers lose AND New Orleans lose AND Seattle wins, then Seattle becomes the first seed. That's because Seattle beats the Packers head to head by common opponents.
1c) If the Packers lose and New Orleans and Seattle both win, then the Saints are the number one seed and Seattle is #2 seed by common opponents.
1d) If Seattle loses, then the Packers get the top seed as long as the Packer's don't lose and New Orleans wins. If Seattle loses and the Packers lose and the Saints win, then the Saints get the number one seed. (edited)

2. In the NFC East, if Washington wins, they win the division no matter what. If Washington loses, then the winner of the Cowboys/Giants game wins the NFC East. If Washington ties, then Washington is still NFC East champ if the Cowboys and Giants also tie. No matter what the NFC East champ will be at best 7-9.

3. Tampa Bay is virtually locked in as the #5 wildcard. The Rams, Cardinals, and Bears are fighting for the last two spots.
3a) If the Bears win, they are in as a wildcard no matter what and the Cardinals would be eliminated. (Rams win any three way tie, and Bears beat Cardinals because of common opponents).
3b) If the Rams win, the Bears are automatically in, and the Cardinals are eliminated.
3c) If the Bears and Rams both lose, then the Cardinals and Rams are in, and the Bears are eliminated.
3d) If the Bears and Cardinals both tie, then the Cardinals are eliminated.

Edit PS: I was corrected on the three way tie between New Orleans, Packers, and Seattle. For non-divisional three way ties, conference record takes priority over common opponents. I looked at three way divisional ties by mistake.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

With the Packers/Bears game being the most decisive, it will probably flex to SNF. Therefore, the Seahawks "should" be playing to win against the 49ers since a chance at a better seed will be on the line.

You grossly underestimate how much the league thinks we want to see the Cowboys battle for the NFC Least title.

I betcha the Cowboys Giants game gets flexed.

 

[Polaris]

Right now the Washington/Eagles game is on SNF and since Washington wins the NFC East with a win, I expect it will stay that way.

 

[renofox]

1b) If the Packers lose AND Seattle wins, then Seattle becomes the first seed. That's because Seattle beats the Packers head to head by common opponents and Seattle beats both the Saints and Packers in a three way tie from common opponents.

NO also has to lose for Seattle to get 1 seed. NO would win 3-way tie based on conference record. then Seattle would get #2 seed over GB based on common games.

 

[Polaris]

1b) If the Packers lose AND Seattle wins, then Seattle becomes the first seed. That's because Seattle beats the Packers head to head by common opponents and Seattle beats both the Saints and Packers in a three way tie from common opponents.

NO also has to lose for Seattle to get 1 seed. NO would win 3-way tie based on conference record. then Seattle would get #2 seed over GB based on common games.

Per NFL.com, for a three way tiebreaker, common games come before conference record. That is why Seattle gets the #1 seed in a three way tie.

GB-SEA-NO have four common opponents (the minimum for this to count): San Fran, Philly, Atlanta, and Minneapolis.

Seattle has a perfect record against all of them (in the case where Seattle wins the last game and that is the case we are considering). Both GB and New Orleans have one loss in this group. Therefore Seattle gets the number one seed. Conference record is not relevant.

Never mind, you are right. I was looking at the three way tie within a division. When you look at the three ways ties outside the division conference record comes first, and yes New Orleans would be the number one seed in a three way tie because of conference record. Seattle would be the number 2 seed by common opponents.

 

[renofox]

1b) If the Packers lose AND Seattle wins, then Seattle becomes the first seed. That's because Seattle beats the Packers head to head by common opponents and Seattle beats both the Saints and Packers in a three way tie from common opponents.

NO also has to lose for Seattle to get 1 seed. NO would win 3-way tie based on conference record. then Seattle would get #2 seed over GB based on common games.

Per NFL.com, for a three way tiebreaker, common games come before conference record. That is why Seattle gets the #1 seed in a three way tie.

https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures

Three or More Clubs

To determine home-field priority among division-titlists, apply Wild Card tie-breakers.

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

Conference record is used before common games.

 

[Polaris]

See above. I just fixed it.

 

[renofox]

If Seattle wins, then a loss by either GB or NO gives us the #2 seed. A loss by both = #1 seed.

 

[Polaris]

If Seattle wins, then a loss by either GB or NO gives us the #2 seed. A loss by both = #1 seed.

Yep agreed. Actually if Seattle wins, a tie by NO would be enough to give Seattle the number 2 seed (GB tie would not of course). The upshot is that NO beats both GB and Seattle head to head (or three way), and Seattle beats GB when overall record is tied.