Seahawks reportedly make huge contract offer to Russell

[Shadowhawk]

Read the paragraph that starts, "One fact lost..."

No deadline.

http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/nf ... 08370.html

SC

Well, yes and no. I don't doubt that they will still be talking but it makes sense that both sides would push for something to get done by the start of camp (and Rodgers did fly up to Seattle for face-to-face talks.) They have to spend some time getting Wagner and potentially Sweezy extended, and once that happens they'll have even less room to work with.

My guess is that unless something breaks and they get a deal done tonight, future talks will be more about laying the groundwork for a long-term deal after the season so they won't have to franchise him in 2016 than about getting a deal done for this year.

 

[StoneCold]

Read the paragraph that starts, "One fact lost..."

No deadline.

http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/nf ... 08370.html

SC

Well, yes and no. I don't doubt that they will still be talking but it makes sense that both sides would push for something to get done by the start of camp (and Rodgers did fly up to Seattle for face-to-face talks.) They have to spend some time getting Wagner and potentially Sweezy extended, and once that happens they'll have even less room to work with.

My guess is that unless something breaks and they get a deal done tonight, future talks will be more about laying the groundwork for a long-term deal after the season so they won't have to franchise him in 2016 than about getting a deal done for this year.

Indeed each side has motivation to get something done soon. The article just points out that neither Russell not Rogers said this was a hard and fast date to get it done and that Ian Rapaport is a click baiting ho.

SC

 

[main]

Man, I saw this all coming when Wilson changed agents..

 

[seahawk12thman]

This is posturing and nothing more.

 

[Blitzer88]

I don't like the idea of not getting a deal done, but it seems we are headed in that direction........ Bummer

 

[The Outfield]

If RW wants an absurd amount right now, I think we should let him play out another year and see if he happens to degrade. You never know.

 

[jdemps]

Can someone explain to me why what Clayton says is correct, and that RW will lose out on some money if he doesn't sign?

http://mynorthwest.com/292/2789304/Clay ... efore-camp

I can see it in a short 1 or 2 year time frame, but in the 4 to 5 year time frame, where he signs a contract with someone and gets paid a signing bonus, he will be all square moneywise. Has there ever been a case where a contract was signed and there wasn't a signing bonus?

Thanks,
SC

Two possible explanations. . . .take your choice:

1) Clayton doesn't know what he is talking about. . .since the Seahawks have made it extremely clear that Russell is paying for $1.5 million dollars this year whether he signs a new contract or not. The new contract is not for this year -- it is for 2016 and beyond. Any money Wilson gets as a "bonus" is just money that's paid up front. . . and deducted from his subsequent years salary.

2) Clayton does know all this. . . he is just dissembling in an attempt to produce public pressure for Russell to sign ASAP and therefore help out the folks his job depends on . . . the Seattle Seahawks front office.

If he gets paid this year, then a portion of this year's cap can be applied to pay his signing bonus. In effect, the team can raise the terms of the contract w/o hamstringing the team in future years. So the team could give him the contact he wants. 4 years/ $100 million and put 8 million of that on this years cap, making his cap hit average $23 million over the course of the deal. If he doesn't sign a deal and ends up franchised twice in a row, he makes 1.5 (2015), 20 (2016), 25 (2017), meaning the next 2 years he'd have to make 27.5 million per year to make up the lost earnings potential. The team's not going to pay that and there's the possibility that he gets hurt or plays poorly and is unable to recoup those losses.

I'm inclined to believe the media reports that the guaranteed money is the biggest holdup. He's getting $10 million less than Cam guaranteed without Cam's injury history and with stats that blow Cam out of the water. "C'mon man!" I think that if the Hawks doubled up the guarantees, he'll sign today (or at least, I hope so).

I see where you're going, but I see two changes. Franchise tag for 2016 and 2017 will be 25mil and 30 mil. That would leave him needing another 45mil over the next two years to equal signing today, or 22.5 per year. What do you think RW would be worth to any team signing him in 2018?

Clayton is just wrong about his numbers. RW won't be leaving money on the table over the long term. Yeah, yeah, yeah I know, barring injury.

I also think you're right about the guarantee. The amounts for years 4 and 5 are quibbling millions. I am now leaning towards him signing a deal today.

SC

The numbers I'm referring to are the non-exclusive franchise tag numbers. He could, in theory, negotiate with another team, but they'd have to give up 2 first round picks and Seattle has the option to match the offer, if it's made. Either way, Russ is about to become a very rich man. I'm also on the refresh train waiting for the guy who knows a guy to tweet that it's a done deal.

 

[Missing_Clink]

I'm excited for the reports on the negotiations next offseason when it will leak that Russell is demanding $27+ mil a year to make up for the fact that he did not have a new deal in 2015. He and his agent will blame the Hawks for that of course.

 

[HawkFan72]

I'm excited for the reports on the negotiations next offseason when it will leak that Russell is demanding $27+ mil a year to make up for the fact that he did not have a new deal in 2015. He and his agent will blame the Hawks for that of course.

Hawks will just franchise him. If he keeps increasing his demands to make up for lost money, the franchise tag will be cheaper for a few years even though it increases in cost as well. I don't think he'll ever be able to keep upping his demands to make up for money lost.

 

[JimmyG]

I'm excited for the reports on the negotiations next offseason when it will leak that Russell is demanding $27+ mil a year to make up for the fact that he did not have a new deal in 2015. He and his agent will blame the Hawks for that of course.

Hawks will just franchise him. If he keeps increasing his demands to make up for lost money, the franchise tag will be cheaper for a few years even though it increases in cost as well. I don't think he'll ever be able to keep upping his demands to make up for money lost.

This is a myth. He's not losing money by getting franchised. If we're really only offering $20 million guaranteed, Wilson stands to make way more by getting franchised and then signing a deal as a free agent in a couple of years. Go and look at a year-by-year breakdown of how salaries are structured in quarterback extensions. Wilson would make around $25 million in the first year under the franchise tag, and around $30 million in the second year. His salaries in a would-be extension in 2016 and 2017 would not even be in the same stratosphere of those numbers. There's no "making up lost money". Anyone that is suggesting that is ill-informed.

 

[onanygivensunday]

I say we all take a knee and implore God to speak to Russell about signing Seattle's last offer.

Promise him anything... short of your 1st born son.

 

[Missing_Clink]

I say we all take a knee and implore God to speak to Russell about signing Seattle's last offer.

Promise him anything... short of your 1st born son.

The convenient thing for those who claim to talk to god is that he somehow only ever tells them exactly what they already wanted to hear. So in this case I don't think it will help.

 

[AVL]

Please explain why Wilson should be happy with an interest free loan from his future earnings and no raise until next year?

I'm waiting.

 

[TwistedHusky]

In a way, Wilson is right though.

The system is bizarre and somewhat broken.

The problem is these stupid "vanity contracts" where the agent negotiates these massive #s in salary bumps that a player will never see because the salary cap restrictions are going to prevent the team from being able to do keep them.

So even the contracts that work out, require the team to cut the successfully contributing player because they are taking too much salary % for their position.

It makes no sense to award a contract or try to get a contract where the last 1/4 of it is just air anyway.

Not saying that is Wilson's stance, but I don't see how you can honestly negotiate when you have an outright lie woven into the structure of the comp system. (Agents pretend the players will reach those #s and the club pretends it will even consider keeping a player until the end of the contract.).

What is needed is some means of assuring that injury does not hamstring a team for years, (no pun intended) but that same injury while performing for the club does not mean the player will see that money anyway. And the ridiculous tails ends of the contract that are self-defeating need to be removed, just as players should have the ability to get guaranteed comp so long as they deliver on whatever KPIs are listed (say 60% individual success comp and 40% team success bonuses).

Right now, clubs can keep a player for the duration of a contract but they can also cut a player at any time. That uncertainty means the player needs to ask for more to offset the risk. Remove some of the risk, put more reasonable performance objectives as a component of a comp, and the #s should go down.

Make it easier to keep good players instead of having to cut a good player because a # nobody expects anyone to pay anyway, and no other team would pay on the open market.

 

[Tical21]

Please explain why Wilson should be happy with an interest free loan from his future earnings and no raise until next year?

I'm waiting.

I think I misunderstood your point.

 

[JimmyG]

Please explain why Wilson should be happy with an interest free loan from his future earnings and no raise until next year?

I'm waiting.

Because the extra money he'd get by waiting would absolutely dwarf the amount of money he'd make through investments.

The rumor right now is that Wilson is being offered $20 million guaranteed. After agent fees (3%) and federal taxes (39%), he'd only take home about $11.6 million. Suppose he invested all of that (presumably what you're alluding to) and had a rate of return of 10%. That's $1.6 million he's forgoing by waiting.

However, take a look at how NFL contracts are structured. 90% of the time the deal is heavily backloaded. If Wilson were to get franchised, he'd make around $25 million in 2016, and $30 million in 2017. In a hypothetical extension, he'd probably make around $10 million in 2016 and $15 million in 2017.

In the first scenario, he'd be making:
$20 million for a signing bonus
+ $1.6 million in investments
+ $10 million salary in 2016
+ $15 million salary in 2017
= $46.6 million total

If he bets on himself, he's looking at:
$25 million in 2016
+ $30 million in 2017
= $55 million total

Plus, in the second scenario, he still gets to sign a massive contract in the 2017 offseason. Not only has he made $8.4 million more up to that point, he also gets to sign a huge free agent deal and collect a gigantic signing bonus ($30 million? $35 million? $40 million?) on top of that. It won't even be close at that point.

 

[Tical21]

Please explain why Wilson should be happy with an interest free loan from his future earnings and no raise until next year?

I'm waiting.

Because the extra money he'd get by waiting would absolutely dwarf the amount of money he'd make through investments.

The rumor right now is that Wilson is being offered $20 million guaranteed. After agent fees (3%) and federal taxes (39%), he'd only take home about $11.6 million. Suppose he invested all of that (presumably what you're alluding to) and had a rate of return of 10%. That's $1.6 million he's forgoing by waiting.

However, take a look at how NFL contracts are structured. 90% of the time the deal is heavily backloaded. If Wilson were to get franchised, he'd make around $25 million in 2016, and $30 million in 2017. In a hypothetical extension, he'd probably make around $10 million in 2016 and $15 million in 2017.

In the first scenario, he'd be making:
$20 million for a signing bonus
+ $1.6 million in investments
+ $10 million salary in 2016
+ $15 million salary in 2017
= $46.6 million total

If he bets on himself, he's looking at:
$25 million in 2016
+ $30 million in 2017
= $55 million total

Plus, in the second scenario, he still gets to sign a massive contract in the 2017 offseason. Not only has he made $8.4 million more up to that point, he also gets to sign a huge free agent deal and collect a gigantic signing bonus ($30 million? $35 million? $40 million?) on top of that. It won't even be close at that point.

But, now you have to go three years without significant injury. There is certainly a percentage of risk involved. Is that amount of risk greater or less than the difference he can possibly make by rolling the dice? If he only has to bet on himself to stay healthy for one year, okay, but three more? It isn't very often that any QB can play six years without significant injury. I'd take 85 cents on the dollar to make sure I got to see all that cash.

 

[ptisme]

I'm excited for the reports on the negotiations next offseason when it will leak that Russell is demanding $27+ mil a year to make up for the fact that he did not have a new deal in 2015. He and his agent will blame the Hawks for that of course.

You guys can now sympathize with my Packers how, over time, a quarterback can go from beloved to hated...

 

[ptisme]

I say we all take a knee and implore God to speak to Russell about signing Seattle's last offer.

Promise him anything... short of your 1st born son.

Dear God, If you convince Russ to sign this contract I promise to be OK with Seattle never winning the Super Bowl again. Amen, PT

 

[ptisme]

If Wilson were a few years older he'd realize the grass isn't alway greener on the other side. He may make 15 percent more in a different city but chances are slim it will be for a team that utilizes his strengths perfectly and puts him in position to be a contender every year... JMHO....