Run run pass?

[PNW]

I think Greg Olsen was able to give us some decent insight, it seems that Pete does handicap things, I’m sure Brian Schottenheimer disagreed with Pete and then he got fired. As for the predictability so far with multiple different coordinators we have the same predictable offense so we can all come to the conclusion that it’s Pete, not 3 different coordinators all with different backgrounds.

 

[hawker84]

Numbers and charts and analytics are all great, but it doesn't change the fact this team is stuck in 2014 and out head coach can't see or refuses to admit we have been figures out. On both sides of the ball. This team has been running in mud for years because we still:

1. We can't convert on 3rd downs
2. Can't get off the field on 3rd downs.
3. Can't stop committing bonehead deadball penalties.
4. Can't in-game adjust until the 4th qrt on either side of the ball.
5. Can't mange the clock or timeouts to save our life.
6. Can't develope quick passing games to counter the blitz.
7. Can't cover backs and tight ends.
Can't pass protect to save our life.

I mean the list goes on and on. Week after week, year after year.

So cool, we don't run as much as most people make out. Really means nothing in the grand scheme of things.. we still are not reaching our potential year in and year out.

What do they say about the definition of insanity?

Jesus. You lot really know how to take specific data points responding to one inaccurate trope and broaden the scope to a wholehearted endorsement of the coaching staff, lol.

No offense meant, but that is really really really not at all what I'm saying. Just combatting a single inaccurate yet pervasive falsehood (run run pass being too prevalent in the Seahawks offense) that gets posted ad nauseam.

Ya I get all that, but like I said, really is meaningless in the grand scheme of things (in my opinion). Truth is in the results. And the truth is, we haven't sniffed a championship caliber team since 2014... Hey, but at least we're not running as much.

 

[bmorepunk]

Most Hawk fans aren't complaining that we run the ball to much, they're complaining about Pete's predictable schemes and playcalling.

That's fine.

But it's stupid for people to say "run, run, pass" as if it is the prevalent play calling behavior. It isn't and it hasn't been.

It's like saying the Seahawks "keep going one and done". That's happened twice in the last 15 years, yet it's a pretty common statement. It's just completely wrong. So is a "run, run, pass" assessment.

I agree with what OP is getting at. A sequence of a run, then another run, then a pass is not a dominant play selection sequence for this team. That doesn't mean there aren't other things that are problematic.

 

[bmorepunk]

No offense meant, but that is really really really not at all what I'm saying. Just combatting a single inaccurate yet pervasive falsehood (run run pass being too prevalent in the Seahawks offense) that gets posted ad nauseam.

I did some analysis I think two seasons ago where I pulled the entire season of play sequences and the selection of R/R/P was something like 20-25% of the play calls. I don't know how many times people complained about R/R/P in a single game and I'd go pull the data from that game and it wasn't.

Maybe accurate descriptions are too hard to think about or type out for some people.

 

[Jville]

No offense meant, but that is really really really not at all what I'm saying. Just combatting a single inaccurate yet pervasive falsehood (run run pass being too prevalent in the Seahawks offense) that gets posted ad nauseam.

I did some analysis I think two seasons ago where I pulled the entire season of play sequences and the selection of R/R/P was something like 20-25% of the play calls. I don't know how many times people complained about R/R/P in a single game and I'd go pull the data from that game and it wasn't.

Maybe accurate descriptions are too hard to think about or type out for some people.

I find the phenomenon annoying.

Perhaps emotional reactions to game events burn a permanent pattern of mental anguish into the viewing mind. There by inviting myths and fiction to act as coping mechanisms for avoiding the mental anguish of recognizing, sorting thru and reconciling the known and the unknown.

 

[ZagHawk]

No offense meant, but that is really really really not at all what I'm saying. Just combatting a single inaccurate yet pervasive falsehood (run run pass being too prevalent in the Seahawks offense) that gets posted ad nauseam.

I did some analysis I think two seasons ago where I pulled the entire season of play sequences and the selection of R/R/P was something like 20-25% of the play calls. I don't know how many times people complained about R/R/P in a single game and I'd go pull the data from that game and it wasn't.

Maybe accurate descriptions are too hard to think about or type out for some people.

If we're gonna pull numbers and statistics into this, you actually don't need to be 50.1%+ to be a majority or higher chance. If we're talking just the first 3 downs, you have 8 possibilities (if we're going to keep this to run or pass)..simple math 2^3 = 8. If every potential 3 down series was done equally, each possible 3 down series call would be 12.5% (1/8). So that being said if R/R/P is indeed 20-25% that in some cases is indeed DOUBLE the percentage of every other possibility. In fact once something else takes up the 20-25%...so lets just bring down the remaining percentage of plays to 77.5% (Meaning you're going R/R/P at 22.5%). Take that 77.5% divided by the remaining 7 other possible 3 down series, each of the remaining 7 series now will only have 11.07% probability of happening. So at 22.5% R/R/P vs 11.07% for every other outcome. You indeed are going R/R/P twice as many times as any other possible series.

I forgot the exact numbers but I was with a doctor recently and he was mentioning about how 30% of Asians end up with Diabetes. 15% of Caucasians will end up Diabetes. Yes 30% does not mean the majority of Asians will get diabetes, however it does mean that if you are an asian you are twice as likely as your caucasian friends stastically speaking...to end up with Diabetes.

I also would be curious to know how often R/R/P or any 3 down series where running was done twice (vs once) what that percentage looks like especially in the first half of the game. All this leading to the common criticisms where if the team has become predictable, it is that much easier for opposing defenses to scheme against in the first half, potentially putting your team in the hole to start a game requiring a second half that a) relies on a run game that FINALLY breaks through (provided you aren't in a hole and need to abandon said run game) or b) You are in a 2-3 score hole and now for sure need to have heroics we have seen with RW needing to score 2-3 TDs in a very fast amount of time with no room for mistakes or the game is over.

 

[bmorepunk]

No offense meant, but that is really really really not at all what I'm saying. Just combatting a single inaccurate yet pervasive falsehood (run run pass being too prevalent in the Seahawks offense) that gets posted ad nauseam.

I did some analysis I think two seasons ago where I pulled the entire season of play sequences and the selection of R/R/P was something like 20-25% of the play calls. I don't know how many times people complained about R/R/P in a single game and I'd go pull the data from that game and it wasn't.

Maybe accurate descriptions are too hard to think about or type out for some people.

If we're gonna pull numbers and statistics into this, you actually don't need to be 50.1%+ to be a majority or higher chance. If we're talking just the first 3 downs, you have 8 possibilities (if we're going to keep this to run or pass)..simple math 2^3 = 8. If every potential 3 down series was done equally, each possible 3 down series call would be 12.5% (1/8). So that being said if R/R/P is indeed 20-25% that in some cases is indeed DOUBLE the percentage of every other possibility. In fact once something else takes up the 20-25%...so lets just bring down the remaining percentage of plays to 77.5% (Meaning you're going R/R/P at 22.5%). Take that 77.5% divided by the remaining 7 other possible 3 down series, each of the remaining 7 series now will only have 11.07% probability of happening. So at 22.5% R/R/P vs 11.07% for every other outcome. You indeed are going R/R/P twice as many times as any other possible series.

I forgot the exact numbers but I was with a doctor recently and he was mentioning about how 30% of Asians end up with Diabetes. 15% of Caucasians will end up Diabetes. Yes 30% does not mean the majority of Asians will get diabetes, however it does mean that if you are an asian you are twice as likely as your caucasian friends stastically speaking...to end up with Diabetes.

I also would be curious to know how often R/R/P or any 3 down series where running was done twice (vs once) what that percentage looks like especially in the first half of the game. All this leading to the common criticisms where if the team has become predictable, it is that much easier for opposing defenses to scheme against in the first half, potentially putting your team in the hole to start a game requiring a second half that a) relies on a run game that FINALLY breaks through (provided you aren't in a hole and need to abandon said run game) or b) You are in a 2-3 score hole and now for sure need to have heroics we have seen with RW needing to score 2-3 TDs in a very fast amount of time with no room for mistakes or the game is over.

If you've never read this (it's Seahawks-centric), you should (pretty fun read):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/yo ... y-screwed/

Just by raw success rate the conclusion is that teams should invert the old school sequence so that passes come first and runs come last.

Even in 2018 when this team was extra run-heavy, the frequency of R/R/P was 26%, compared to the league average of 16%. It was disproportionate, but not "what they always do" as some people indicate. Running on first down and picking that sequence disproportionately are valid criticisms, especially when you look at overall success rate, but it's not like they're calling it 50%, 75%, or 95% of the time as the commentary indicates. It was the most used at 26%, but R/P/P was at 25%. The really disproportionate thing here is that they ran on first down over 70% of the time against a league average 52%.

 

[ZagHawk]

If you've never read this (it's Seahawks-centric), you should (pretty fun read):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/yo ... y-screwed/

Just by raw success rate the conclusion is that teams should invert the old school sequence so that passes come first and runs come last.

Even in 2018 when this team was extra run-heavy, the frequency of R/R/P was 26%, compared to the league average of 16%. It was disproportionate, but not "what they always do" as some people indicate. Running on first down and picking that sequence disproportionately are valid criticisms, especially when you look at overall success rate, but it's not like they're calling it 50%, 75%, or 95% of the time as the commentary indicates. It was the most used at 26%, but R/P/P was at 25%. The really disproportionate thing here is that they ran on first down over 70% of the time against a league average 52%.

I will give that a read. 26 vs 16% is pretty disproportionate when we're talking season averages. 10% in a single game is not a big deal, but 10% over an entire season is a huge deal. Simply put put 10% over a season average on any other stat (sacks per game, completion percentage, red zone efficiency) and it's the difference between being an average player or team vs all-pro/contender.

Now the 70% for running on first down is a huge thing. Yeah that right there would be seen as very "predictable" for opposing offenses and thus alarming yet believable for anyone who has been watching this team as we all do. I think the struggle going on here is there are those like myself who don't need to "let russ cook" and want to see this team passing every down. I think it's just we want to see the idea of what Pete has been saying, but not doing...an actual balance. It would be great to see if this team had just as many runs on first downs as passes, just as many short passes to the middle as it did long bombs, and not as specific stages in the game, but throughout the game from beginning to end. Like i mentioned earlier it would be great to see how the stats look on specific play calls from 1st through 4th Quarter. Because I also bet end game stats may seem like a balanced playbook, but for those who watch the games we've seeen the team go run/pass heavy to start and then flip flop to the second half versus an attempt to just balance and be unpredictable to the opposing defense all game.

 

[John63]

If you've never read this (it's Seahawks-centric), you should (pretty fun read):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/yo ... y-screwed/

Just by raw success rate the conclusion is that teams should invert the old school sequence so that passes come first and runs come last.

Even in 2018 when this team was extra run-heavy, the frequency of R/R/P was 26%, compared to the league average of 16%. It was disproportionate, but not "what they always do" as some people indicate. Running on first down and picking that sequence disproportionately are valid criticisms, especially when you look at overall success rate, but it's not like they're calling it 50%, 75%, or 95% of the time as the commentary indicates. It was the most used at 26%, but R/P/P was at 25%. The really disproportionate thing here is that they ran on first down over 70% of the time against a league average 52%.

I will give that a read. 26 vs 16% is pretty disproportionate when we're talking season averages. 10% in a single game is not a big deal, but 10% over an entire season is a huge deal. Simply put put 10% over a season average on any other stat (sacks per game, completion percentage, red zone efficiency) and it's the difference between being an average player or team vs all-pro/contender.

Now the 70% for running on first down is a huge thing. Yeah that right there would be seen as very "predictable" for opposing offenses and thus alarming yet believable for anyone who has been watching this team as we all do. I think the struggle going on here is there are those like myself who don't need to "let russ cook" and want to see this team passing every down. I think it's just we want to see the idea of what Pete has been saying, but not doing...an actual balance. It would be great to see if this team had just as many runs on first downs as passes, just as many short passes to the middle as it did long bombs, and not as specific stages in the game, but throughout the game from beginning to end. Like I mentioned earlier it would be great to see how the stats look on specific play calls from 1st through 4th Quarter. Because I also bet end game stats may seem like a balanced playbook, but for those who watch the games we've seen the team go run/pass heavy to start and then flip flop to the second half versus an attempt to just balance and be unpredictable to the opposing defense all game.

I think the issue is less about the pattern of a particular set of calls and more about the predictability. The reality is most of the time when they are going to run we know it, and more importantly, the other team knows it. This year we are running 25 times a game and passing 27. pretty balanced and well we are not doing well. The issue is predictability, and an unwillingness to maintain what works for the whole game.

If you look at all the games Wilson played you will notice a pattern of dean qtrs. In these dead qtrs you will also notice a decrease in passing and increase in running and more specifically predictable running.