Poll: YOU are GM, extend Russell at $50 million per?

[flv]

It's not about cap numbers, it's about how much players are being paid. Wilson is due $24M and $27M for the next 2 years, and part of the money Wilson has previously been paid was for the Seahawks to have those 2 non-guaranteed option years. It's as if he was due $26M & $29M for the next 2 season including a guaranteed $2M roster bonus in each year, (with the bonuses now paid). Beyond 2023 Wilson is unlikely to be offered close to $50M. If need be the Seahawks would just tag him.

 

[toffee]

Instead of $50M, perhaps per centage of total cap would be more indicative. If a QB is taking up 30% of a team's total cap, there will only be 70% to be share by 50 odd other players, ask yourself, how many star level players you can squeeze in under that 70% of cap space?

 

[chris98251]

Ok in a nutshell, the market dictates what a top QB makes, like it or not they are not taking a discount to stay here, 50 million is going to be that market, maybe 55 million since it seems to go up 5 million a season.

Everyone saying keep and not trade needs to wrap their minds around this, you can't have it both ways, pay and stay or trade and look for the next guy.

Pretty simple.

The key in my mind is what pieces do you have around to support keeping, O line, WR, RB, TE in place, a defense that can make your offense a threat and what kind of cap you will have to plug in FA pieces that get those positions filled that are not set.

If you don't have those other pieces, then paying is a waste of time since your chances of getting there are substantially limited and you may as well use that cap to build those pieces and draft what you think is the next guy and use a place holder till you hit on the next guy. This means you have confidence in John and Pete to do so as well.

 

[DHawk]

I hit the wrong one! Its a hell no, no matter who the coach is!

 

[TwistedHusky]

My mind is blown that people do not understand this.

You pay what you have to because only the teams with great QBs have a chance in the playoffs. It is expensive because only 1/4 to 1/3 of the league gets the chance because only those teams have top QBs.

There is a freaking reason that teams tank for QBs, even if the odds are something like 1 in 3 you even get a great QB when you tank. Because without a great QB, not just a good QB but a great one, you lose any opportunity for a SuperBowl before the season even starts.

Maybe one or two might sneak in.

But conference rounds of the playoffs are for the top tier QBs, not for the rest.


This is the reason that the Browns, who have finally started winning after years of struggle, and have one of THE best rushing attacks in the NFL....are still looking to move on from the QB that made the difference for them.

Because a difference is not enough, you need a great QB to be a playoff team.

Whether Wilson plays the way Pete wants, or the team likes, or even if he murders families at night on the weekends...hardly matters. Whether you or anyone else on the team likes him, hates him, loves him, or despises him - Wilson can be a great QB.

Great QBs are more important than great coaches. More important than any other player on the field. And they are obscenely hard to draft, or even identify among other top QBs at the top tiers of the draft.

That people want to run him off, regardless of the reason, is baffling. That is literally our only chance to be a relevant playoff team (ie win a division playoff game).

 

[OrangeGravy]

My mind is blown that people do not understand this.

You pay what you have to because only the teams with great QBs have a chance in the playoffs. It is expensive because only 1/4 to 1/3 of the league gets the chance because only those teams have top QBs.

There is a freaking reason that teams tank for QBs, even if the odds are something like 1 in 3 you even get a great QB when you tank. Because without a great QB, not just a good QB but a great one, you lose any opportunity for a SuperBowl before the season even starts.

Maybe one or two might sneak in.

But conference rounds of the playoffs are for the top tier QBs, not for the rest.


This is the reason that the Browns, who have finally started winning after years of struggle, and have one of THE best rushing attacks in the NFL....are still looking to move on from the QB that made the difference for them.

Because a difference is not enough, you need a great QB to be a playoff team.

Whether Wilson plays the way Pete wants, or the team likes, or even if he murders families at night on the weekends...hardly matters. Whether you or anyone else on the team likes him, hates him, loves him, or despises him - Wilson can be a great QB.

Great QBs are more important than great coaches. More important than any other player on the field. And they are obscenely hard to draft, or even identify among other top QBs at the top tiers of the draft.

That people want to run him off, regardless of the reason, is baffling. That is literally our only chance to be a relevant playoff team (ie win a division playoff game).

Just as I replied to you in the other thread, I agree with your thought process almost completely. Just disagree with who the great QBs are. I'm not just talking about Russell either. I think the QB market has put teams in a bad place. You now have to pay way over true value for guys everyone knows isn't truly great. Right now this how I'd rate the greatness level in the league. Guys who I think can win in the post season going pass heavy.

Who can:
Brady
Roger's
Mahomes

Who's showing the potential:

Burrow
Allen
Herbert
Watson (maybe)

Everyone else is either no longer capable, Ryan, or needs lots of run game help. That's it. If you don't have one of those guys, you aren't winning anything in January without running the football well. You may not need to run a bunch with some guys, but you do have be good at it when you do run

 

[nwHawk]

Pete must feel giddy after watching the 49ers use a defense/ run game with a QB (Jimmy G) that even his own team doesn’t want, to get to the NFC Championship game.

Serious question, if Jimmy G wins the Super Bowl this year, is he on the same same level as Russ? Both would have started 2 Super Bowls with each winning one of them. Strange to think, right.

 

[nwHawk]

Burrow is a stud. I expect him to win a few MVPs soon. Smart, calm and focused. Makes that team so much better.

 

[flv]

Instead of $50M, perhaps per centage of total cap would be more indicative. If a QB is taking up 30% of a team's total cap, there will only be 70% to be share by 50 odd other players, ask yourself, how many star level players you can squeeze in under that 70% of cap space?

No it wouldn't.

The 2022 salary cap is going to be around $208M. QBs are not being paid $62.4M year in year out. If a team pays a QB $25M per year then that's the figure to work around regardless of how the player's team manipulates the cap figures. If a team is accounting for $75M over 3 years it doesn't matter whether they account for it equally or significantly more of it at either end - they're still paying $25M per year.

How much the NFL's superstars are paid is determined by how much teams are required to spend and how much, (or little), is paid to the majority of players who are paid close to the NFL's minimum wage. From 2010 to 2020 NFL rookie and minimum pay went up by about 3% per year whilst the NFL salary cap when up by close to 8% per year. Inevitably superstar pay skyrocketed because there wasn't a more sensible alternative for GMs to spend the money on. Bottom end pay has significantly increased with the last CBA. What happens to superstar pay going forward will again depend on how much the salary cap increases in proportion to minimum end pay.

 

[ivotuk]

No matter what. Unless you're happy with a game manager like Jimmy G, Mariota or Tannehill.

Without Tom Brady, the Bucs don't win the SB.

Russell Wilson wins 4thQuarter and OT games. You can't win it all with anything less at QB unless you have a once in a lifetime defense.

Russell will win it all again, even without the greatest D. A "good" D is required for any QB however.

You need an Elite QB, and a Top 10 Scoring Defense. Otherwise you're just the most recent versions of the Falcons, Rams, 49ers and Chiefs to reach the SuperBowl.

 

[TwistedHusky]

For years, people have been saying that Wilson is the difference between us being a 5 win team and a 10 win team.

If you have a giant cap hit, the QB has to make a difference. So far, Wilson has demonstrated he does make the difference.

Is making the playoffs worth $50M? Maybe, unless you are fine having a solid cap but missing the playoffs for years.

The Packers are good but have lots of holes, because they have a giant cap hit from the QB. They still made the playoffs.

And frankly with an average QB that is a 7 win team.

You need your QB to be the difference for 4-5 wins per year, which Wilson easily has demonstrated for years. So yes, he is worth $50M.

 

[DarkVictory23]

My mind is blown that people do not understand this.

You pay what you have to because only the teams with great QBs have a chance in the playoffs. It is expensive because only 1/4 to 1/3 of the league gets the chance because only those teams have top QBs.

There is a freaking reason that teams tank for QBs, even if the odds are something like 1 in 3 you even get a great QB when you tank. Because without a great QB, not just a good QB but a great one, you lose any opportunity for a SuperBowl before the season even starts.

Maybe one or two might sneak in.

But conference rounds of the playoffs are for the top tier QBs, not for the rest.


This is the reason that the Browns, who have finally started winning after years of struggle, and have one of THE best rushing attacks in the NFL....are still looking to move on from the QB that made the difference for them.

Because a difference is not enough, you need a great QB to be a playoff team.

Whether Wilson plays the way Pete wants, or the team likes, or even if he murders families at night on the weekends...hardly matters. Whether you or anyone else on the team likes him, hates him, loves him, or despises him - Wilson can be a great QB.

Great QBs are more important than great coaches. More important than any other player on the field. And they are obscenely hard to draft, or even identify among other top QBs at the top tiers of the draft.

That people want to run him off, regardless of the reason, is baffling. That is literally our only chance to be a relevant playoff team (ie win a division playoff game).

This just isn't true, though. Not even close.

In just the last five years, the conference rounds have hosted teams led by Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Case Keenum, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz/Nick Foles, Blake Bortles, plus Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger who both sit on the cusp of whether they are considered elite or not. That's not 'one or two'.

If you expand it to the last decade, we get the truly terrible 2015 version of Peyton Manning, more career mid-tiers like Alex Smith and Joe Flacco and more 'borderline' top-tier talent like Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Colin Kaepernick, and, oh yeah, that one guy who managed to go to two straight Super Bowls even though his team passed the ball less over those two years than any other team in the NFL and who, despite having one of the best RBs in the league, still only barely managed to be better than 'average' when it came to putting points on the board... what was his name again?

No matter what. Unless you're happy with a game manager like Jimmy G, Mariota or Tannehill.

Without Tom Brady, the Bucs don't win the SB.

Russell Wilson wins 4thQuarter and OT games. You can't win it all with anything less at QB unless you have a once in a lifetime defense.

Russell will win it all again, even without the greatest D. A "good" D is required for any QB however.

You need an Elite QB, and a Top 10 Scoring Defense. Otherwise you're just the most recent versions of the Falcons, Rams, 49ers and Chiefs to reach the SuperBowl.

When Russell Wilson went to the Super Bowl, he was passing the ball less than any other starter in the NFL. He had one of the best RBs in the league and we only managed to be just barely better than average at scoring. He was the DEFINITION of a game manager. Yeah, he managed some impressive game winning drives but if he had actually been, you know, scoring points like any of the elite offenses were, we wouldn't have needed them.

Also, our D this year was just barely out of the top 10 of scoring Ds and if our QB, who we're going to give $50 million to, managed to improve our average drive to just bottom 3 (instead of dead last by a good margin), we'd have ended up a top 5 scoring D just based on that many fewer drives given to our opponents.



All this being said, I don't know if I give Russ $50 mill or not, so I didn't vote. Do I think he's actually a 5-game difference QB? Definitely not this year or the last half of last year. Do I think he can be? Yes. But the more pressing issue is what the market for QBs is going to be.

QBs, even average ones, are grossly overpaid right now, so we'll just see what the market is. $50 million might end up being considered a 'reasonable' price for even just a slightly better than average QB and if Russ plays into the system (like he did the last couple of years this year), he's way better than that, so it might not be that big of a mistake.

 

[morgulon1]

It does not work like that.

QBs are expensive. So Elite QBs tend to go to the SB every 4-5th year.

But they tend to be top teams and in the playoffs for a decade.

Winning teams have great QBs.

It used to be the key thing that determined the success of a team was the quality of the coach. That was the #1 thing. Great coaches tended to win.

The rule changes have altered that. The key factor that determines the success of a team is now the QB.

Look at Denver and San Diego as perfect examples. San Diego isn't great. But they are going to be a playoff team shortly. Cincy already is, and did not really improve that much besides the QB play and the WR.

Meanwhile Denver is stacked. That defense was also legit. But the coach was still fired. Because they had no QB.

You get rid of Wilson, you get rid of your future unless you can find another great QB. (The good news, as others have pointed out, is that JS seems to have some sort of sixth sense for who is going to be a stud QB. So maybe slim chance we can find another - but long odds...)

Regardless, if you don't have a plan to get a great QB, you cannot let Wilson go. Because there is no playoff future without him.

Is going to the playoffs for another 5 years, and maybe making 1 more SB appearance worth it? Then you extend him (if possible).

Unless you just want to burn it all to the ground and start over. But you aren't running it back without him.

Yes!! To trade a franchise quarterback off doesn't make sense. I guess they're easy to get

 

[toffee]

It does not work like that.

QBs are expensive. So Elite QBs tend to go to the SB every 4-5th year.

But they tend to be top teams and in the playoffs for a decade.

Winning teams have great QBs.

It used to be the key thing that determined the success of a team was the quality of the coach. That was the #1 thing. Great coaches tended to win.

The rule changes have altered that. The key factor that determines the success of a team is now the QB.

Look at Denver and San Diego as perfect examples. San Diego isn't great. But they are going to be a playoff team shortly. Cincy already is, and did not really improve that much besides the QB play and the WR.

Meanwhile Denver is stacked. That defense was also legit. But the coach was still fired. Because they had no QB.

You get rid of Wilson, you get rid of your future unless you can find another great QB. (The good news, as others have pointed out, is that JS seems to have some sort of sixth sense for who is going to be a stud QB. So maybe slim chance we can find another - but long odds...)

Regardless, if you don't have a plan to get a great QB, you cannot let Wilson go. Because there is no playoff future without him.

Is going to the playoffs for another 5 years, and maybe making 1 more SB appearance worth it? Then you extend him (if possible).

Unless you just want to burn it all to the ground and start over. But you aren't running it back without him.

Yes!! To trade a franchise quarterback off doesn't make sense. I guess they're easy to get

Can your franchise QB bring you to promised land? Keep if he could, no doubt about it!

Sent from my IN2017 using Tapatalk

 

[AgentDib]

This is an interesting topic now because if Russ's extension will be more expensive than you want to pay, then trading him now makes a lot more sense than just letting him walk to free agency or franchising him.

I have doubts that we can afford Russ based on the overall state of our roster.

Here's the value that we got out of our 2021 contracts per OTC. Obviously Wilson's value includes a big asterisk here as he had a significant injury. The bulk of the value here is coming from cheap players that played decently.


However, things start to look grim if you forecast out to this upcoming season.


Obviously we can hope for better injury luck for Russ, Jamal and Tre. However, there's a big problem here. First, the bulk of our good value players are now hitting free agency where they will be paid fairly (or overpaid). Players like Reed, Green, Diggs, Woods, and Dissly were key contributors at a bargain price and will not be next year.

Second, we borrowed from this upcoming year with void years and backloaded contracts and so many of the players who we are keeping become worse values.

My primary concern is that in trying to win next year the FO is going to simply borrow assets from 2023 with restructures and more backloaded extensions. I wouldn't be happy about trading Russ, but if I could get somebody to give me three first round picks then I would trade both him and Metcalf and eat a down season in 2022 while adding a ton of cheap youth to the roster.

 

[toffee]

This is an interesting topic now because if Russ's extension will be more expensive than you want to pay, then trading him now makes a lot more sense than just letting him walk to free agency or franchising him.

I have doubts that we can afford Russ based on the overall state of our roster.

Here's the value that we got out of our 2021 contracts per OTC. Obviously Wilson's value includes a big asterisk here as he had a significant injury. The bulk of the value here is coming from cheap players that played decently.


However, things start to look grim if you forecast out to this upcoming season.


Obviously we can hope for better injury luck for Russ, Jamal and Tre. However, there's a big problem here. First, the bulk of our good value players are now hitting free agency where they will be paid fairly (or overpaid). Players like Reed, Green, Diggs, Woods, and Dissly were key contributors at a bargain price and will not be next year.

Second, we borrowed from this upcoming year with void years and backloaded contracts and so many of the players who we are keeping become worse values.

My primary concern is that in trying to win next year the FO is going to simply borrow assets from 2023 with restructures and more backloaded extensions. I wouldn't be happy about trading Russ, but if I could get somebody to give me three first round picks then I would trade both him and Metcalf and eat a down season in 2022 while adding a ton of cheap youth to the roster.

one could over simplify and proclaim that our aging stars didn't pull their weight, we do have replacement ready if Bobby leaves. We have nothing if Russ leaves.