Play Off Situation Today...

[Jiggy]

To start off, we absolutely can not end the season tied w/ San Fran. That happens and we slip to the 5th seed.

Pretty much if:

Seattle looses the next three games, and it's the 6th seed.

Seattle wins one more, Saints AND 9'ers lose one more Seattle has the second seed.

Seattle wins one more and the Saints lose two more AND 9'ers lose one more Seattle have the first seed.

If Seattle wins two more, they are the first seed.

Teams to root for next week: Tampa and Rams.

 

[Seahawkx]

I think we should just go with D, Seattle wins 2 more and we get the first seed. Easiest and most probably path IMO.

 

[Polaris]

To start off, we absolutely can not end the season tied w/ San Fran. That happens and we slip to the 5th seed.

Pretty much if:

Seattle looses the next three games, and it's the 6th seed.

Not so. In such a case Seattle would end the season 11-5. If Carolina, Arizona (or both) are tied with Seattle, Seattle would have the five seed. (These two are the most likely). It's actually very hard for Seattle to drop all the way to the sixth seed, and with one more win it will be impossible.

Seattle wins one more, Saints AND 9'ers lose one more Seattle has the second seed.

Correct. Also if Seattle wins and SF ties OR Seattle ties and SF loses, Seattle has the division. EDIT: Actually the Saints have nothing to do with getting the #2 seed. Seattle would win this merely by winning the division (NFCW champ is no worse than #2 seed regardless). The Saints loss would also assure HFA.

Seattle wins one more and the Saints lose two more AND 9'ers lose one more Seattle have the first seed.

Almost. If Seattle wins and BOTH San Fran and New Orleans lose (just one each), then Seattle clinches the division and HFA.

If Seattle wins two more, they are the first seed.

Indeed. It's our easiest path.

Teams to root for next week: Tampa and Rams.

Agreed.

 

[OrFan]

We are not losing any more games. A loss by a very close score, to a division rival, on their field is not uncommon.

We will most likely win all three remaining games.

The number one seed at this point is pretty much a given.

 

[AROS]

Just Win, Baby.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Talking about losses? No thanks.

 

[Sarlacc83]

I don't know why there's an "if" in front of "Seattle wins 2 more games".

 

[Polaris]

I don't know why there's an "if" in front of "Seattle wins 2 more games".

We haven't won them yet. Thus "if" is appropriate.

 

[volsunghawk]

I don't know why there's an "if" in front of "Seattle wins 2 more games".

We haven't won them yet. Thus "if" is appropriate.

But the 49ers have already won their next three, right?

 

[Largent80]

too much math, lets just win our remaining games and let everyone else figure shit out.

 

[Polaris]

I don't know why there's an "if" in front of "Seattle wins 2 more games".

We haven't won them yet. Thus "if" is appropriate.

But the 49ers have already won their next three, right?

When you are doing clinching scenarioes that's what you have to assume. If I were posting on a Niner board, I'd assume that Seattle was winning out.

Edit PS: I also do think the Niners have the easier remaining schedule.

 

[mikeak]

OP good post -- I would revise in the items that Polaris pointed out to the original post but I appreciate the effort at looking at where things stand.

We want to be able to play T-Jack week 17 and a few other backups like Christine etc

 

[Mindsink]

Beating the Giants next Sunday is a near-certainty. Coming off a loss, in the stadium our players hope to be playing in February (Superbowl field experience), we will beat the $hit out of a lousy Giants team who has nothing left to play for.

 

[NINEster]

Beating the Giants next Sunday is a near-certainty. Coming off a loss, in the stadium our players hope to be playing in February (Superbowl field experience), we will beat the $hit out of a lousy Giants team who has nothing left to play for.

With the Giants, you never know what you're gonna get.

The math says it should be an easy game but they have a history of being the spoiler of beating undefeated teams or giving them a hard time when they are not doing so well. They beat the 13-0 '98 Broncos as a bad team, and nearly gave the Packers their first loss of 2011 while being in the midst of a multi game losing streak.

Last year they collapsed in the second half foreshadowing their garbage season of 2013, but still managed dominant wins @Carolina and @San Francisco.

Historically I've hated the Giants more than any other team, but will surprisingly root for them this week.

I'm hoping these three factors play a role in a potential upset:

a) Eliminated from playoffs - nothing to lose mentality
b) Getting up for a premier team
c) Revenge for getting smacked around in 2011
d) Victor Cruz could be tough matchup for Seattle secondary

Oh yeah, 10 AM start. Doesn't mean an automatic loss but it is the opposite of a prime time at Century Link.

 

[BlueTalons]

These are clinching scenarios for this weekend only:
(Source: http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/seahawksclinch.html)

Seed #1 - First Round Bye
Seahawks beat the Giants, and
Rams beat the Saints, and
Buccaneers beat the Forty-Niners
----------------------------------------------------
Seed #2 - First Round Bye
Seahawks beat the Giants, and
Buccaneers beat the Forty-Niners
----------------------------------------------------
Seed #3 - First Round Home Field Advantage
No clinching cases were found for this spot
----------------------------------------------------
Seed #4 - First Round Home Field Advantage
The Seahawks cannot win this spot
----------------------------------------------------
Seed #5 - Wildcard
Scenario 1: Seahawks beat the Giants
Scenario 2: Rams beat the Saints
Scenario 3: Jets beat the Panthers
----------------------------------------------------
Seed #6 - Wildcard
The Seahawks have already won this spot

 

[Largent80]

Beating the Giants next Sunday is a near-certainty.

NO Haven't you watched any games this year?

There are NO gimme games in this league.

 

[NinerBuff]

Unless something dramatic happens...

1. Seattle
2. NO
3. Dallas / Philly
4. Detroit
5. Carolina
6. SF

Dallas and Philly play on the last game of the season, probably for a playoff berth. Carolina has a home game vs. NO, which will be pivotal... they can legitimately get #2, #5, or #6 depending on that game and how the Niners finish out their season. While I hope the Niners can finish with a better record than the Panthers, and securing the #5 seed, it's improbable.

Going to either Detroit or Dallas doesn't scare me as much as going to Philly, but I still think the Niners can win any of those games. Same goes for the Panthers.

The divisional round...

SF @ SEA -or- CAR @ SEA
SF @ NO -or- CAR @ NO

I'd like to see the Niners go to NO in the divisional round. We played well there and have Crabtree, Manningham, and Aldon Smith coming around. Also, while I doubt very much that Carolina could beat the Hawks in Seattle, they'd give them a good fight. Their front line is stout and Cam is playing very well (at least until last night).

Ultimately, I want to see a rematch in SEA... SF vs. SEA winner claims the NFC and plays for the 'ship.

 

[Mindsink]

Beating the Giants next Sunday is a near-certainty. Coming off a loss, in the stadium our players hope to be playing in February (Superbowl field experience), we will beat the $hit out of a lousy Giants team who has nothing left to play for.

With the Giants, you never know what you're gonna get.

The math says it should be an easy game but they have a history of being the spoiler of beating undefeated teams or giving them a hard time when they are not doing so well. They beat the 13-0 '98 Broncos as a bad team, and nearly gave the Packers their first loss of 2011 while being in the midst of a multi game losing streak.

Last year they collapsed in the second half foreshadowing their garbage season of 2013, but still managed dominant wins @Carolina and @San Francisco.

Historically I've hated the Giants more than any other team, but will surprisingly root for them this week.

I'm hoping these three factors play a role in a potential upset:

a) Eliminated from playoffs - nothing to lose mentality
b) Getting up for a premier team
c) Revenge for getting smacked around in 2011
d) Victor Cruz could be tough matchup for Seattle secondary

Oh yeah, 10 AM start. Doesn't mean an automatic loss but it is the opposite of a prime time at Century Link.

But I could turn around each of those talking points the other way:

a) Eliminated from playoffs - they won't show up for this game
b) Going against a premier team, they know they'll lose anyways, and the weather will be cold. They won't want to be out there.
c) That was two years ago, and they didn't get smacked around. A late redzone interception ended that game after the Giants were driving.
d) Victor Cruz has been a non-factor against much lesser defenses/secondaries.

I think it's much more likely the 49ers lose to the Bucs (Who are 4-1 after going 0-8) than than the Hawks are to the Giants.

Remember, the 49ers are coming off a big win, so there's more chance of a letdown game. The Seahawks will be hungry this game after they felt they let the 49ers game slip through their fingers.

 

[Uncle Si]

Talking about losses? No thanks.

agreed

 

[Largent80]

Unless something dramatic happens...
Ultimately, I want to see a rematch in SEA... SF vs. SEA winner claims the NFC and plays for the 'ship.

I think you want to see it because it would mean the SB, but I seriously doubt you want your team in Seattle on that day.