Pete Carroll is not run heavy

[BASF]

It is time to put this incorrect thought process to bed once and for all. Over the years, we watched Wilson run less and less designed rushing attempts. There was only five of them in 2020. There were less than ten of them in 2021. As Wilson proved last season for the Broncos, he isn't interested in being a running QB.

As we saw in 2022 with Geno Smith at the helm, he only had a handful of designed runs as his rush attempts were mostly him seeing holes in the defense at the snap and calling his own number or avoiding sacks and getting positive yards.

So, that is now three seasons that we have not been using the QB as a runner on featured plays. So, what does that leave us? Actual rushing attempts by non-QBs.

There is still this pervasive thought in this forum that Pete Carroll is run heavy, which has been debunked by the fact that we have been in the bottom seven of non-QB rushing attempts for the past three seasons:

2022. 32. Bengals 321, 31. Texans 340, 30. Chargers 349, 29. Dolphins 350, 28. Chiefs 351, 27. Rams 356, 26. Seahawks 357

2021. 32. Jaguars 318, 31. Jets 340, 30. Bucs 348, 29. Falcons 350, 28. Seahawks 361

2020. 32. Texans 254 (what in the hell with this low number? trying to get Watson killed apparently), 31. Eagles 286 (again seriously low), 30. Jaguars 301, 29. Bills 303, 28. Giants 325, 27. Seahawks 326

The Me3 propaganda machine worked wonders against the reality that Wilson needed the running game established the last few seasons of his time here, because he had become a one trick pony with the deep ball and we needed to suck up the safeties or he would fail spectacularly as he did for the Broncos.

Now that Geno has taken control and he "does what you tell him" the run/pass ratio went up to thirteenth in the league last season.

This lowers the chance of impact plays by the running backs, but we also brought in two running backs who are very good at catching passes out of the back field. I am also hopeful that Walker III has been working on his routes and hands in the offseason. With the stable of running backs we have for the 2023 season, we should all be excited at the possibilities for this offense. When they get their chances, they will make the most of them.

 

[sutz]

The reality is that Pete has always been an advocate of a balanced offensive attack. I think the comments he make that confuse people is that he definitely wants to be "able to run the ball when you need to." Basically that means late in the game when you want to burn clock, you have to be able to pick up 3-4 rushing yards per play, even when the other team is expecting it. Overall, though, he wants a rough 50-50 balance between run/pass.

 

[GGotskill]

So, that is now three seasons that we have not been using the QB as a runner on featured plays. So, what does that leave us? Actual rushing attempts by non-QBs.

There is still this pervasive thought in this forum that Pete Carroll is run heavy, which has been debunked by the fact that we have been in the bottom seven of non-QB rushing attempts for the past three seasons:

2022. 32. Bengals 321, 31. Texans 340, 30. Chargers 349, 29. Dolphins 350, 28. Chiefs 351, 27. Rams 356, 26. Seahawks 357

2021. 32. Jaguars 318, 31. Jets 340, 30. Bucs 348, 29. Falcons 350, 28. Seahawks 361

2020. 32. Texans 254 (what in the hell with this low number? trying to get Watson killed apparently), 31. Eagles 286 (again seriously low), 30. Jaguars 301, 29. Bills 303, 28. Giants 325, 27. Seahawks 326

I don't disagree with the premise but... rushing attempts alone don't tell you anything. You either need to express run attempts vs the total amount of plays run, or run attempts vs passing attempts.

Teams that run less plays overall will tend to be on the lower end of the spectrum if not looking at this as a ratio of total plays.

 

[Spin Doctor]

Pete Carroll would like to be a 50/50 run pass or 45/55. It’s simply that we haven’t had the personnel to do it. We’ve been down to our third string back quite often, or we fielded an injured back like Carson or even Walker. We’ve been pass heavy out of necessity more than anything else.

I don’t know if I’ve seen an NFL team that gets their RBs injured more consistently than Seattle does.

 

[hoxrox]

He would like to be balanced. The main thing is efficiency. Avoid 3rd and long situations - whether they are running or passing on first and second down doesn't matter as much.

Although the offense did seem to have the more success last season when the passing game set up the run.

 

[Mick063]

He wants two things:

1) The deep ball with extra pocket time purchased from play action pass. Which means that the run game has to be respected.
2) Close out fourth quarter leads with a four-minute offense.

Neither of those two things have anything to do with being "run heavy". They both have to do with having a reliable or respected rushing attack.
Further, Carroll's run philosophy is directly proportional to the effectiveness of his rushing attack. Success begets success. The more success that comes from running the ball, the more he will direct his OC to run the ball. That is true for EVERY NFL coach. They do what the team is good at doing. It isn't rigid ideology. It is dependent ideology.

 

[sutz]

That is true for EVERY NFL coach. They do what the team is good at doing. It isn't rigid ideology. It is dependent ideology.

Or, they do what the other team sucks at defending.

 

[EverydayImRusselin]

I don't disagree with the premise but... rushing attempts alone don't tell you anything. You either need to express run attempts vs the total amount of plays run, or run attempts vs passing attempts.

Teams that run less plays overall will tend to be on the lower end of the spectrum if not looking at this as a ratio of total plays.

And with the horrendous run defense last year, I believe we were very near the bottom of total offensive plays run (ran?).

 

[BASF]

And with the horrendous run defense last year, I believe we were very near the bottom of total offensive plays run (ran?).

An interesting angle. So, looking at the percentage of plays run we were still thirteenth in pass play percentage as I stated in the OP. So, if Carroll is so run heavy as so many allege, where is the proof? In 2021, with Wilson injured and him not running plays that Waldron called, we leaned more heavily on the run at twentieth. In 2020, where Wilson got to "cook" for the first nine games and screwed us out of home field advantage with his turn over laden five games we were fourteenth.

So, even when we were being screwed by Wilson's turnovers, we didn't hit the top ten in rushing attempts by non-QBs. Sure, people can go back four years ago and say, hey this is what we did back then. Three seasons is a pretty big sample size for the NFL nowadays.

 

[EverydayImRusselin]

An interesting angle. So, looking at the percentage of plays run we were still thirteenth in pass play percentage as I stated in the OP. So, if Carroll is so run heavy as so many allege, where is the proof? In 2021, with Wilson injured and him not running plays that Waldron called, we leaned more heavily on the run at twentieth. In 2020, where Wilson got to "cook" for the first nine games and screwed us out of home field advantage with his turn over laden five games we were fourteenth.

So, even when we were being screwed by Wilson's turnovers, we didn't hit the top ten in rushing attempts by non-QBs. Sure, people can go back four years ago and say, hey this is what we did back then. Three seasons is a pretty big sample size for the NFL nowadays.

Sorry, I wasn't disagreeing with you, merely agreeing that using % running plays is a better metric than total number of run plays.

 

[ivotuk]

Great post! Couple years ago I went through the stats, and if I remember correctly, we ran on average 46 - 51% of the time with Marshawn.

I would consider 55% and above as "run heavy."

 

[keasley45]

the entire belief that PC favors the run has been overfed by the statements he would make when asked prior to last year, what the offense needed to do to get on track. At the time, our pass game was one dimensional. With our inability to exploit vast areas of the field through the air, when defenses covered the plays they knew were coming, we had little else in terms of a passing attack to get them off their spots.

Pete's solution was 100% logical and the correct adjustment - run more to force defenses out of the high cover looks. We had no passing gear to switch to to make that happen. Either more RB, or more Russ. And Russ had long made clear he had no desire to use his legs anymore.

But in the divisive atmoshpere generated by the LRC campaign and the QB at the time stating the offense needed to be more explosive - ie more passing, proverbial lines were drawn and one could be led to believe that solution was either A - listen to an old coach, mired in his old ways, or B - stand on the side of the exciting QB who was only asking that we do the only thing that seemed to make the offense work - let him pass more.

But in reality, it was never that simple. Nothing in the smoky haze of he post LOB Seahawks success was.

PC, last year responded directly to the question of whether he preferred a game manager at the qb position since it seemed he preferred relying on the run and strong defense to win, favoring low scoring, close battles that came down to the 4th qtr. He said bluntly that the belief that he wanted those things was absolutley false. He said he likes a strng offense, and if he can win by 20 every game and have an electric qb who can dominate through the air, that he'd love it.

 

[Hawk4life]

It is time to put this incorrect thought process to bed once and for all. Over the years, we watched Wilson run less and less designed rushing attempts. There was only five of them in 2020. There were less than ten of them in 2021. As Wilson proved last season for the Broncos, he isn't interested in being a running QB.

As we saw in 2022 with Geno Smith at the helm, he only had a handful of designed runs as his rush attempts were mostly him seeing holes in the defense at the snap and calling his own number or avoiding sacks and getting positive yards.

So, that is now three seasons that we have not been using the QB as a runner on featured plays. So, what does that leave us? Actual rushing attempts by non-QBs.

There is still this pervasive thought in this forum that Pete Carroll is run heavy, which has been debunked by the fact that we have been in the bottom seven of non-QB rushing attempts for the past three seasons:

2022. 32. Bengals 321, 31. Texans 340, 30. Chargers 349, 29. Dolphins 350, 28. Chiefs 351, 27. Rams 356, 26. Seahawks 357

2021. 32. Jaguars 318, 31. Jets 340, 30. Bucs 348, 29. Falcons 350, 28. Seahawks 361

2020. 32. Texans 254 (what in the hell with this low number? trying to get Watson killed apparently), 31. Eagles 286 (again seriously low), 30. Jaguars 301, 29. Bills 303, 28. Giants 325, 27. Seahawks 326

The Me3 propaganda machine worked wonders against the reality that Wilson needed the running game established the last few seasons of his time here, because he had become a one trick pony with the deep ball and we needed to suck up the safeties or he would fail spectacularly as he did for the Broncos.

Now that Geno has taken control and he "does what you tell him" the run/pass ratio went up to thirteenth in the league last season.

This lowers the chance of impact plays by the running backs, but we also brought in two running backs who are very good at catching passes out of the back field. I am also hopeful that Walker III has been working on his routes and hands in the offseason. With the stable of running backs we have for the 2023 season, we should all be excited at the possibilities for this offense. When they get their chances, they will make the most of them.

I think you meant 2021, we were 13th in the league, last season we were 21st.

For 3 years we were the highest running team in the NFL, coinciding with Marshawn's departure in 2015. We went back to the run in 2018 when Penny was drafted.

 

[themunn]

We haven't been run-heavy since the Marshawn days and that coincides with not having a player like Marshawn since the Marshawn days.

That also coincided with having a great defense and taking a lead and being able to run the ball repeatedly in the 4th quarter to close out games.

Carroll has stressed time and time again that his ideal offense is balanced, but has a strong run game that can close out games. I'd be more interested than anything to see the 1st through 3rd quarter splits year on year (since the 4th quarter either has you chasing the game and passing more, or winning the game and running more, so will be distorted).

 

[Kamcussionator]

View attachment 59043

I think you meant 2021, we were 13th in the league, last season we were 21st.

For 3 years we were the highest running team in the NFL, coinciding with Marshawn's departure in 2015. It seems like the attempt was made to get back to the run game in 2018.

Just because I was curious, here's our record for the same periods.
2012 11-5 (Marshawn Era)
2013 13-3 SB
2014 12-4 SB
2015 10-6 <-- Marshawn hurt, 7 games
2016 10-5-1 (Prosise, Collins, Michael, F.Jackson...)
2017 9-7 <-- (E.Lacy) Chris Carson rookie, 4 games
2018 10-6 (C.Carson Era, 14 games)
2019 11-5 (15 games)
2020 12-4 (12 games)
2021 7-10 <-- Chris Carson Hurt, 4 games
2022 9-8 <-- (R.Penny) Ken Walker, 15g, 11 starts

Of course this is backdropped against the decline of the LOB defense, but there is a clear Lynch and Carson era where we trusted our RBs and tried to feature them.

Carson (and Penny/Prosise) couldn't stay healthy, so I think that trust wasn't there during the last few years.

So, have we started the KW3 era? Perhaps. However I think it telling that we drafted Charbonnet and McIntosh so we don't get caught with our pants down if K9 can't stay healthy.

 

[TheLegendOfBoom]

You gotta be well balanced on offense.

Not necessarily, run majority, or pass majority.

Being balanced makes it difficult for defenses to predict what you are going to do.

Carroll, wants to be balanced, not heavy on any of the two.

When you are balance, that’s a very good sign you are winning the game.

Being one sided in passing or running, means, either your pass game is horrible or your run game is non-existent.

Come playoff time, the teams that can only do one and does not have a good enough defense, does not advance.

A balanced offense is always what you should strive for.

 

[sutz]

So, have we started the KW3 era? Perhaps. However I think it telling that we drafted Charbonnet and McIntosh so we don't get caught with our pants down if K9 can't stay healthy.

The RB room has been pretty thin for several years, especially with guys we were trying to showcase as "the guy."

Loving the additions. Both Charbonnet and McIntosh bring skills and attitude to the table, and are pretty certain to make the cut to 53 come late August, barring the "I" word that has been biting us since forever, it seems.

 

[Hawk4life]

Just because I was curious, here's our record for the same periods.
2012 11-5 (Marshawn Era)
2013 13-3 SB
2014 12-4 SB
2015 10-6 <-- Marshawn hurt, 7 games
2016 10-5-1 (Prosise, Collins, Michael, F.Jackson...)
2017 9-7 <-- (E.Lacy) Chris Carson rookie, 4 games
2018 10-6 (C.Carson Era, 14 games)
2019 11-5 (15 games)
2020 12-4 (12 games)
2021 7-10 <-- Chris Carson Hurt, 4 games
2022 9-8 <-- (R.Penny) Ken Walker, 15g, 11 starts

Of course this is backdropped against the decline of the LOB defense, but there is a clear Lynch and Carson era where we trusted our RBs and tried to feature them.

Carson (and Penny/Prosise) couldn't stay healthy, so I think that trust wasn't there during the last few years.

So, have we started the KW3 era? Perhaps. However I think it telling that we drafted Charbonnet and McIntosh so we don't get caught with our pants down if K9 can't stay healthy.

That is interesting, it shows just how close to being able to carry the team RW was in 2020. It is pretty amazing to think about.

I think it is going to a really interesting year with our RB's, we already know Walker is legit and they all are good receivers. Which is real nice for a pocket passer like Geno.

 

[BASF]

View attachment 59043

I think you meant 2021, we were 13th in the league, last season we were 21st.

For 3 years we were the highest running team in the NFL, coinciding with Marshawn's departure in 2015. We went back to the run in 2018 when Penny was drafted.

I actually did not phase the sentence correctly. We were I believe tied for thirteenth last season for pass above run ratio. I'd have to go back and check the numbers (no time since I work today). However, the point was that we pass more because Geno was trusted "to do what you tell him."

 

[rcaido]

View attachment 59043

I think you meant 2021, we were 13th in the league, last season we were 21st.

For 3 years we were the highest running team in the NFL, coinciding with Marshawn's departure in 2015. We went back to the run in 2018 when Penny was drafted.

You also have to factor that Wilson was doing a lot more rushing too. He was averaging over 100 attempts a season for his first 4 seasons. After that he only rush 3/4 that.