Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays Everyone,
There is nothing like a Seattle win and a ticket to the playoffs to put one into the holiday spirit especially when the Grinch decided to pick on someone else in Week 16 (namely Pittsburgh). I hope everyone will forgive me if I post these articles a day early rather than post MNF since the MNF game (Denver@Oakland) has no bearing on the overall playoff picture whatsoever. Let's get on with the new playoff scenarios for week 17 and things are looking very well indeed. As always I will discuss the NFC scenarios here and discuss the corresponding AFC scenarios in a companion article in the NFL general forums under AFC Playoff Scenarios [Week 17]. As before, I will use the following symbols:
*--Home Field Advantage
z--First Round Bye
y--Division Winner
x--Playoff Spot
(e)--Eliminated
As before I will sometimes follow such a symbol with a number to reflect a specific seed if applicable. With all that said, let's dig in.
NFC East
You will note below that I use the number suffix for the very first time this season. That's because the Cowboys have not only clinched their division but clinched it with a fixed and specific seed (fourth). Thanks to some literal last second heroics the Philadelphia Eagles have a remote chance at a wildcard spot, but need help. Seattle's win locked Philadelphia out of the #5 seed, so it's the last wildcard or nothing for the Eagles. Thanks to the Seattle and Minny win and loss against the Titans, Washington was eliminated.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Game
Dallas-y4 9-6 6-3 4-1 @NY Giants
Philadelphia 8-7 5-6 3-2 @Washington
Washington (e) 7-8 6-5 2-3 Philadelphia
NY Giants (e) 5-10 4-7 1-4 Dallas
Clinching Scenarios: Dallas has clinched the NFC East and can not qualify for any seed other than the fourth seed. That makes the final game for Dallas meaningless. Philadelphia can qualify for the #6 wildcard with a WIN + Minnesota LOSS.
Elimination Scenarios: Washington and the NY Giants are already eliminated, and Dallas is locked into the #4 seed. Philadelphia is eliminated from the playoffs UNLESS they win AND Minnesota loses. Philadelphia has one and only one possible path and slot into the playoffs.
NFC North
Chicago has clinched this division and has a (very) outside shot at the #2 seed and a first week bye. It is far likelier that they will fall to the #3 seed. Green Bay and Detroit have been eliminated and the Minnesota Vikings have the inside shot at a wildcard spot, and most likely the #6 seed but do have an outside shot at the higher #5 seed depending on Seattle. Minnesota can also be eliminated from the playoffs in favor of the Philadelphia Eagles if they lose.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Game
Chicago-y 11-4 9-2 4-1 @Minnesota
Minnesota 8-6-1 6-4-1 3-1-1 Chicago
Green Bay (e) 6-8-1 3-7-1 1-3-1 Detroit
Detroit (e) 5-10 3-8 1-4 @Green Bay
Clinching Scenarios: Chicago can clinch the #2 seed and a first week bye with a WIN + LA Rams LOSS. This is because Chicago has the head to head tiebreak against the Rams. Minnesota clinches a playoff spot with:
1) A Win or Tie
2) A Philadelphia loss or tie
Minnesota can clinch the #5 seed with a WIN + a Seattle Loss.
Elimination Scenarios: Green Bay and Detroit are already eliminated from the playoffs. Minnesota is eliminated from the playoffs with a LOSS + Philadelphia WIN. Minnesota is eliminated from the #5 seed with a Loss or tie OR a Seattle win or tie. Chicago is eliminated from a first week bye with a LOSS or Tie OR an LA Rams Win or tie.
NFC South
The Saints have clinched home field advantage and thanks to a Carolina loss in week 16, all other teams are eliminated from playoff contention.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Game
New Orleans-* 13-2 9-2 4-1 Carolina
Atlanta (e) 6-9 6-5 3-2 @Tampa Bay
Carolina (e) 6-9 4-7 1-4 @New Orleans
Tampa Bay (e) 5-10 4-7 2-3 Atlanta
Clinching Scenarios: None left
Elimination Scenarios: As mentioned above, all NFC South Teams except New Orleans are eliminated, and New Orleans has clinched the highest seed and home field advantage, so no further elimination scenarios exist.
NFC West
The LA Rams have clinched this division for some time, but Seattle is coming on strong, and San Francisco has played surprisingly good football of late giving the Bears everything they could handle. However since Chicago pulled out a difficult win, the LA Rams weren't able to clinch a first week bye and have lost the ability to take home field. Still they are far and away the likeliest #2 seed just as Seattle is the likeliest #5 seed.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Game
LA Rams-y 12-3 8-3 5-0 San Francisco
Seattle-x 9-6 7-4 2-3 Arizona
San Francisco (e) 4-11 2-9 1-4 @LA Rams
Arizona (e) 3-12 3-8 2-3 @Seattle
Clinching Scenarios:
The LA Rams have already clinched the NFC West. The LA Rams can clinch the #2 seed and a first week bye with:
1) A Win or Tie
2) A Chicago Loss or Tie
Seattle has clinched a wildcard berth since it beats Philadelphia on any possible tiebreak, and is out of reach of all the rest of the NFC save Minnesota. Seattle can clinch the #5 (highest) Wildcard seed with:
1) A Win or Tie
2) A Minnesota Loss or Tie
Note that because Seattle won in week 16, Philadelphia has no roll in Seattle's wildcard seeding or fortunes (but Philadelphia matters a great deal to Minnesota).
Elimination Scenarios: San Francisco and Arizona have long since been eliminated from the playoffs, and the LA Rams were eliminated by a New Orleans win this week from any shot at home field advantage. The LA Rams can be eliminated from a first week bye (locking them into the #3 seed) with a LOSS + Chicago Win. Anything else will give the LA Rams the #2 seed. Similarly Seattle can be eliminated from the #5 seed with a LOSS + a Minnesota WIN. Anything else will result with Seattle having the #5 seed.
So who to root for?
1) Root for Seattle to win (as always). A Seattle win guarantees a week 1 playoff match against Dallas which is far preferable to (likely) Chicago.
2) Root against Minnesota as a backup plan. (same reason).
That's pretty much it. Seattle is pretty much immune from the rest of the playoff picture.
*whew* I hope this helps.
There is nothing like a Seattle win and a ticket to the playoffs to put one into the holiday spirit especially when the Grinch decided to pick on someone else in Week 16 (namely Pittsburgh). I hope everyone will forgive me if I post these articles a day early rather than post MNF since the MNF game (Denver@Oakland) has no bearing on the overall playoff picture whatsoever. Let's get on with the new playoff scenarios for week 17 and things are looking very well indeed. As always I will discuss the NFC scenarios here and discuss the corresponding AFC scenarios in a companion article in the NFL general forums under AFC Playoff Scenarios [Week 17]. As before, I will use the following symbols:
*--Home Field Advantage
z--First Round Bye
y--Division Winner
x--Playoff Spot
(e)--Eliminated
As before I will sometimes follow such a symbol with a number to reflect a specific seed if applicable. With all that said, let's dig in.
NFC East
You will note below that I use the number suffix for the very first time this season. That's because the Cowboys have not only clinched their division but clinched it with a fixed and specific seed (fourth). Thanks to some literal last second heroics the Philadelphia Eagles have a remote chance at a wildcard spot, but need help. Seattle's win locked Philadelphia out of the #5 seed, so it's the last wildcard or nothing for the Eagles. Thanks to the Seattle and Minny win and loss against the Titans, Washington was eliminated.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Game
Dallas-y4 9-6 6-3 4-1 @NY Giants
Philadelphia 8-7 5-6 3-2 @Washington
Washington (e) 7-8 6-5 2-3 Philadelphia
NY Giants (e) 5-10 4-7 1-4 Dallas
Clinching Scenarios: Dallas has clinched the NFC East and can not qualify for any seed other than the fourth seed. That makes the final game for Dallas meaningless. Philadelphia can qualify for the #6 wildcard with a WIN + Minnesota LOSS.
Elimination Scenarios: Washington and the NY Giants are already eliminated, and Dallas is locked into the #4 seed. Philadelphia is eliminated from the playoffs UNLESS they win AND Minnesota loses. Philadelphia has one and only one possible path and slot into the playoffs.
NFC North
Chicago has clinched this division and has a (very) outside shot at the #2 seed and a first week bye. It is far likelier that they will fall to the #3 seed. Green Bay and Detroit have been eliminated and the Minnesota Vikings have the inside shot at a wildcard spot, and most likely the #6 seed but do have an outside shot at the higher #5 seed depending on Seattle. Minnesota can also be eliminated from the playoffs in favor of the Philadelphia Eagles if they lose.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Game
Chicago-y 11-4 9-2 4-1 @Minnesota
Minnesota 8-6-1 6-4-1 3-1-1 Chicago
Green Bay (e) 6-8-1 3-7-1 1-3-1 Detroit
Detroit (e) 5-10 3-8 1-4 @Green Bay
Clinching Scenarios: Chicago can clinch the #2 seed and a first week bye with a WIN + LA Rams LOSS. This is because Chicago has the head to head tiebreak against the Rams. Minnesota clinches a playoff spot with:
1) A Win or Tie
2) A Philadelphia loss or tie
Minnesota can clinch the #5 seed with a WIN + a Seattle Loss.
Elimination Scenarios: Green Bay and Detroit are already eliminated from the playoffs. Minnesota is eliminated from the playoffs with a LOSS + Philadelphia WIN. Minnesota is eliminated from the #5 seed with a Loss or tie OR a Seattle win or tie. Chicago is eliminated from a first week bye with a LOSS or Tie OR an LA Rams Win or tie.
NFC South
The Saints have clinched home field advantage and thanks to a Carolina loss in week 16, all other teams are eliminated from playoff contention.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Game
New Orleans-* 13-2 9-2 4-1 Carolina
Atlanta (e) 6-9 6-5 3-2 @Tampa Bay
Carolina (e) 6-9 4-7 1-4 @New Orleans
Tampa Bay (e) 5-10 4-7 2-3 Atlanta
Clinching Scenarios: None left
Elimination Scenarios: As mentioned above, all NFC South Teams except New Orleans are eliminated, and New Orleans has clinched the highest seed and home field advantage, so no further elimination scenarios exist.
NFC West
The LA Rams have clinched this division for some time, but Seattle is coming on strong, and San Francisco has played surprisingly good football of late giving the Bears everything they could handle. However since Chicago pulled out a difficult win, the LA Rams weren't able to clinch a first week bye and have lost the ability to take home field. Still they are far and away the likeliest #2 seed just as Seattle is the likeliest #5 seed.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Game
LA Rams-y 12-3 8-3 5-0 San Francisco
Seattle-x 9-6 7-4 2-3 Arizona
San Francisco (e) 4-11 2-9 1-4 @LA Rams
Arizona (e) 3-12 3-8 2-3 @Seattle
Clinching Scenarios:
The LA Rams have already clinched the NFC West. The LA Rams can clinch the #2 seed and a first week bye with:
1) A Win or Tie
2) A Chicago Loss or Tie
Seattle has clinched a wildcard berth since it beats Philadelphia on any possible tiebreak, and is out of reach of all the rest of the NFC save Minnesota. Seattle can clinch the #5 (highest) Wildcard seed with:
1) A Win or Tie
2) A Minnesota Loss or Tie
Note that because Seattle won in week 16, Philadelphia has no roll in Seattle's wildcard seeding or fortunes (but Philadelphia matters a great deal to Minnesota).
Elimination Scenarios: San Francisco and Arizona have long since been eliminated from the playoffs, and the LA Rams were eliminated by a New Orleans win this week from any shot at home field advantage. The LA Rams can be eliminated from a first week bye (locking them into the #3 seed) with a LOSS + Chicago Win. Anything else will give the LA Rams the #2 seed. Similarly Seattle can be eliminated from the #5 seed with a LOSS + a Minnesota WIN. Anything else will result with Seattle having the #5 seed.
So who to root for?
1) Root for Seattle to win (as always). A Seattle win guarantees a week 1 playoff match against Dallas which is far preferable to (likely) Chicago.
2) Root against Minnesota as a backup plan. (same reason).
That's pretty much it. Seattle is pretty much immune from the rest of the playoff picture.
*whew* I hope this helps.
