It's December. Caroling is in the air and it's that time of the year again. It's time for PLAYOFF SCENARIOS! Given that there are five games to go with a lot of varations, I'd like to concentrate on the NFC since that is most important to most of us here I think.
I'll start with the easiest division to read: NFC South
Carolina 11-0 (7-0 conf) Games Remaining: @Saints, Falcons, @Giants, @Falcons, Bucs
Atlanta 6-5 (4-4 conf) Games Remaining: @Bucs, @Carolina, @Jax, Carolina, Saints
T.B. 5-6 (4-3 conf) Games Remaining: Falcons, Saints, @Rams, Bears, @Carolina
N.O. 4-7 (3-5 conf) Games Remaining: Carolina, @Bucs, Jax, @Falcons
Clinches: Carolina clinches the division with a win. I think the raw records make that brutally clear. In fact Carolina is almost a lock to make the playoffs. The ONLY way Carolina doesn't win the division is if Carolina loses out and Atlanta wins out. Even then, Carolina only misses the playoffs if they lose out and they get caught in a three way tie for 11-5 against two other teams they either haven't beaten or have better conference records than. Unfortunately for the Panthers all their remaining games are conference games and all but one division games. That means if they DO lose out, they'd have a 7-5 conference record which would not be enough to beat an 11-5 Seattle team (or 11-5 Arizona team) AND an NFCN Team with an 11-5 record that didn't win the NFCN Crown. [Remember that the first three way head to head tie break is determined if one team has BEATEN].
What that means is that if there is a three-way 11-5 team for the WC spot and Carolina was one of those teams (they lost out), the only three way tie that Carolina would win would be against an 11-5 Green Bay and 11-5 Seattle team [in which case Seattle would be on the outside looking in.] Any other combo (say 11-5 Vikings, 11-5 Seattle; 11-5 Arizona, 11-5 Green Bay, etc) will eliminate the Panthers based on an inferior conference record.
I would say the chances that Carolina wins the division is over 99% and the chance they make the playoffs is a near certainty.
No other team in the NFC South can clinch anything.
Eliminations: No team in the NFC South can be eliminated outright this week although if the Saints lose, they are one game away from elimination from the wild-card since the best record New Orleans can have is 9-7.
What Seahawk fans should root for (IMHO): Root for the Saints, Root against Atlanta (although to be honest Seattle benefits just by having the Bucs and Falcons play each other). You want to root for the Saints because that would make the two Atlanta games crucial for Carolina and we want Atlanta to lose early and often.
Now we'll go the the division that probably matters the least for Seattle fans in the NFC, the NFC East:
Washington 5-6 (5-3 conf) Games Remaining: Dallas, @Bears, Buff, @Philly, @Dallas
N.Y. Giants 5-6 (4-5 conf) Games Remaining: Jets, @Miami, Carolina, @Minny, Philly
Philly 4-7 (3-6 conf) Games Remaining: @N.E., Buff, Arizona, Washington, @Giants
Dallas 3-8 (2-7 conf) Games Remaining: @Wash, @Green Bay, Jets, @Buff, Wash
*eeeewww* Did anyone mention that the NFC East was horrid this year?! YIKES!
Obviously no one can come even close to clinching the NFC East this year. It is also worth noting that Dallas has already been eliminated from any Wildcard consideration* and if Philly loses to NE this weekend (something I think is very likely), Philly will also be eliminated from any Wildcard*. However it is also worth noting that Washington and the Giants don't play each other for the home stretch and that Washington not only has a better conference record but a better division record as well. That means that if both go undefeated down the stretch, Washington would win the NFCE Crown and the Giants would have to contend for a wildcard at 10-6 but with a 7-5 conference record which likely won't be good enough to beat a Seattle or Packers/Minny team at 10-6 or better.
*Technically 8-8 can still hypothetically get a wildcard but see *Note at the end of this article.
Elimination Scenarios: Because the NFCE is so poor, no one in that division can be eliminated from division contention quite yet, but Philly can be eliminated from any wildcard contention if they lose to N.E. this weekend. Dallis is already eliminated from any wildcard.
Who should Seattle root for? Honestly it doesn't much matter. I would suggest it would be good to root for Dallas (don't look at me like that) simply because Dallas can't possibly compete against Seattle for the same playoff spot and they CAN inflict a loss on Washington who could conceivably get a wildcard (as a very outside shot). Likewise Seahawk fans should root for the Jets over the Giants (again not that it makes a huge amount of difference) simply to eliminate the Giants from the wildcard hunt faster.
Now let's look at the second most important NFC Division for Seattle fans (mainly because it plays the NFCW) and that'sx the NFCN:
Minny 8-3 (5-2 conf) Remaining Schedule: Seattle, @Arizona, Chicago, NY Giants, @Green Bay (ouch!)
Green Bay 7-4 (5-3 conf) Remaining Schedule: @Detroit, Dallas, @Oakland, @Arizona, Minny
Chicago 5-6 (2-5 conf) Remaining Schedule: Niners, Washington, @Minny, @Bucs, Detroit
Detroit 4-7 (3-4 conf) Remaining Schedule: Green Bay, @Rams, @Saints., San Fran, @Chicago
The first thing that leaps out at me is the remaining games on Minny's schedule. Three out of five games are against not only winning opponents but *quality* winning opponents (Seattle, Arizona, and Green Bay) all three of whom have excellent QB play, balanced offense, and a good defense (yes even Seattle). Just looking at it, I think it's clear that Minny is going to lose most of their remaining games....which is born out if you compare Minny's DVOA against the DVOA of their remaining foes. Even though Green Bay is a game behind, they only have TWO opponents with winning record (Arizona and Minny) and they've already beaten one....furthermore their DVOA is better than one of them (Minny). As such I am going to predict right now that Green Bay (and not Minny) will win the NFC North crown. Of course if Green Bay continues to struggle against inferior teams, I may change my mind. Tomorrow's game vs Detroit will tell me a great deal about which Green Bay we have to worry about in December.
Clinches: While no one in the NFCN can clinch either a divisional title or wildcard, it's pretty clear just by looking at the optics of both the records and who they are playing that the divisional race will be between Green Bay and Minny (see above as to who I think wins that race). I also believe at this time that the loser of that race will most likely be the #6 seed (esp if it's Minny like I think it will be). Chicago could potentially get into the mix for the Wildcard but they have a terrible conference record and lose tiebreaks against competing teams (such as Seattle). As such about the best the Bears can hope to do is play spoiler.
Elimination Scenarios: Although no one in the NFCN can clinch, if Detroit loses tomorrow against Green Bay they are ELIMINATED from the playoffs. Why? If Detroit loses, Green Bay improves to 8-4 and Detroit falls to 4-8. This will eliminate Detroit from the wildcard since it will take a bare mimimum of 9 games (more likely 10) to qualify.* It also eliminates Detroit from the NFCN crown because to catch Green Bay, Minny would have to win at least once (beating Green Bay) which would give them nine wins, and if they catch Minny, Minny would have to lose out which means that Green Bay would have at least nine wins.
*See *Note at the end of this article.
So who should Seahawk fans root for? I hope it's obvious that we root for Seattle to beat Minny. Believe it or not I think we also want to root for Green Bay tomorrow against Detroit. This not only eliminates Detroit playoff contention but for the next month, Green Bay is (strangely) Seattle's ally. Normally I'd also say root against Chicago but not this week. This week we want Chicago to win (see NFCW) because that will eliminate San Fransisco.
Finally, what you've all been waiting for.......the NFC West:
Arizona 9-2 (6-1 conf) Remaining Games: @Rams, Minny, @Philly, Green Bay, Seattle
Seattle 6-5 (5-4 conf) Remaining Games: @Minny, @Ravens, Browns, Rams, @Arizona
St. Louis 4-7 (3-4 conf) Remaining Games: Arizona, Detroit, Bucs, @Seattle, @San Fran
San Fran 3-8 (2-7 conf) Remaining Games: @Chicago, @Cleveland, Cincy,@ Detroit, Rams
Obviously Arizona is in the driver's seat but not as much as the record would at first indicate. Furthermore if we look at the schedules, it's sets up extremely sweetly for the Seattle with an extremely cushy middle part against three third-rate teams all with back-up QBs, and two of those three games are at home. This almost hands Seattle 9 wins and it's one reason why I automatically eliminate any team with 8 wins or less maximum from even wild-card consideration even if that's technically not correct yet. What's more, since Arizona and Seattle play each other again, and Arizona only has a three game lead with Seattle virtually handed three wins down the stretch due to scheduling (that's how I'd have to look at it if I were rooting for Arizona), it means the Division race while still controlled by the Cardinals is a lot closer than it seems.
Clinching Scenarios: Contrary to what some may think, there is no way for any team to clinch the NFCW Crown this week. That's because even if Arizona were to win and Seattle were to lose, Arizona would go to 10-2 and Seattle would drop to 6-6. If Arizona were to lose out while Seattle were to win out from that point. both would finish 10-6. At that we'd look at head to head but that would be a wash (1-1) in this case. The next tie-break would be division record: Seattle in this case would have a division record of 4-2 while (edit)Arizona would also have a Division record of 4-2. Next we'd go win-loss-tie with common teams. That would be everyone but Carolina and Dallas for Seattle and New Orleans and Philly for Arizona. Under this scenario, both teams would be 9-5 against common opponents. The next tie break would be conference record, but again both teams would be tied at 7-5 in conference. The next tie break would be strength of victory and I believe Seattle wins that one in this particular case or at least Seattle could so Arizona wouldn't *quite* clinch.
Elimination Scenarios: San Fransisco has already been elminated from the NFCW Crown. That's because Arizona already has nine wins, and the best San Fran can do is 8-8. Furthermore, if Seattle wins and San Fran loses then San Fran is eliminated from the playoffs altogether (officially .... in my unofficial estimation they are already eliminated), Why? If Seattle wins, they are assured of 7 wins and have already beaten San Fran twice. The best San Fran could do is tie Seattle and San Fran loses all the tie breaks (even a hypothetical three way one with Seattle and the Bears). St Louis can be eliminated from the Division race if they lose to Arizona (obviously). They would still have an outside shot at a wildcard in that case. There are no other elimination scenarios (see above for why).
*Note: Technically those teams assured of only finishing 8-8 at best aren't quite eliminated from the playoffs, but for our purposes we probably should consider them to be effectively eliminated already. Why? Carolina and Arizona already have more than 8 wins, and Minny has exactly 8 wins. That's three of the six playoff slots. We also know that SOMEONE will win the NFCE regardless of record, and it's seems very likely that the division will be won at 9-7 or worse. Given (see above) that most of the NFCE teams have yet to play each other, inter-division games will virtually assure that any team that doesn't win the NFCE crown will be less than 8-8. That eliminates another playoff slot. What's more Green Bay has 7 wins and either Minny or GB will win the division and they play each other. I think it's very safe to assume that the second place team in the NFCN will be at *least* 9-7 and take one of the two wildcard spots. Finally Seattle already has 6 wins and probably (outside of Minny this week and Arizona at the end of the year) perhaps the cushiest December schedule in the NFL both qualitatively and quantitatively, and I think it's clear that Seattle will finish the year at least 9-7 as well. Thus I don't see how any team at 8-8 can possibly make the playoffs as a wildcard. I expect that to be official within the next two weeks.
I hope everyone enjoyed this analysis.
Source: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace
I'll start with the easiest division to read: NFC South
Carolina 11-0 (7-0 conf) Games Remaining: @Saints, Falcons, @Giants, @Falcons, Bucs
Atlanta 6-5 (4-4 conf) Games Remaining: @Bucs, @Carolina, @Jax, Carolina, Saints
T.B. 5-6 (4-3 conf) Games Remaining: Falcons, Saints, @Rams, Bears, @Carolina
N.O. 4-7 (3-5 conf) Games Remaining: Carolina, @Bucs, Jax, @Falcons
Clinches: Carolina clinches the division with a win. I think the raw records make that brutally clear. In fact Carolina is almost a lock to make the playoffs. The ONLY way Carolina doesn't win the division is if Carolina loses out and Atlanta wins out. Even then, Carolina only misses the playoffs if they lose out and they get caught in a three way tie for 11-5 against two other teams they either haven't beaten or have better conference records than. Unfortunately for the Panthers all their remaining games are conference games and all but one division games. That means if they DO lose out, they'd have a 7-5 conference record which would not be enough to beat an 11-5 Seattle team (or 11-5 Arizona team) AND an NFCN Team with an 11-5 record that didn't win the NFCN Crown. [Remember that the first three way head to head tie break is determined if one team has BEATEN].
What that means is that if there is a three-way 11-5 team for the WC spot and Carolina was one of those teams (they lost out), the only three way tie that Carolina would win would be against an 11-5 Green Bay and 11-5 Seattle team [in which case Seattle would be on the outside looking in.] Any other combo (say 11-5 Vikings, 11-5 Seattle; 11-5 Arizona, 11-5 Green Bay, etc) will eliminate the Panthers based on an inferior conference record.
I would say the chances that Carolina wins the division is over 99% and the chance they make the playoffs is a near certainty.
No other team in the NFC South can clinch anything.
Eliminations: No team in the NFC South can be eliminated outright this week although if the Saints lose, they are one game away from elimination from the wild-card since the best record New Orleans can have is 9-7.
What Seahawk fans should root for (IMHO): Root for the Saints, Root against Atlanta (although to be honest Seattle benefits just by having the Bucs and Falcons play each other). You want to root for the Saints because that would make the two Atlanta games crucial for Carolina and we want Atlanta to lose early and often.
Now we'll go the the division that probably matters the least for Seattle fans in the NFC, the NFC East:
Washington 5-6 (5-3 conf) Games Remaining: Dallas, @Bears, Buff, @Philly, @Dallas
N.Y. Giants 5-6 (4-5 conf) Games Remaining: Jets, @Miami, Carolina, @Minny, Philly
Philly 4-7 (3-6 conf) Games Remaining: @N.E., Buff, Arizona, Washington, @Giants
Dallas 3-8 (2-7 conf) Games Remaining: @Wash, @Green Bay, Jets, @Buff, Wash
*eeeewww* Did anyone mention that the NFC East was horrid this year?! YIKES!
Obviously no one can come even close to clinching the NFC East this year. It is also worth noting that Dallas has already been eliminated from any Wildcard consideration* and if Philly loses to NE this weekend (something I think is very likely), Philly will also be eliminated from any Wildcard*. However it is also worth noting that Washington and the Giants don't play each other for the home stretch and that Washington not only has a better conference record but a better division record as well. That means that if both go undefeated down the stretch, Washington would win the NFCE Crown and the Giants would have to contend for a wildcard at 10-6 but with a 7-5 conference record which likely won't be good enough to beat a Seattle or Packers/Minny team at 10-6 or better.
*Technically 8-8 can still hypothetically get a wildcard but see *Note at the end of this article.
Elimination Scenarios: Because the NFCE is so poor, no one in that division can be eliminated from division contention quite yet, but Philly can be eliminated from any wildcard contention if they lose to N.E. this weekend. Dallis is already eliminated from any wildcard.
Who should Seattle root for? Honestly it doesn't much matter. I would suggest it would be good to root for Dallas (don't look at me like that) simply because Dallas can't possibly compete against Seattle for the same playoff spot and they CAN inflict a loss on Washington who could conceivably get a wildcard (as a very outside shot). Likewise Seahawk fans should root for the Jets over the Giants (again not that it makes a huge amount of difference) simply to eliminate the Giants from the wildcard hunt faster.
Now let's look at the second most important NFC Division for Seattle fans (mainly because it plays the NFCW) and that'sx the NFCN:
Minny 8-3 (5-2 conf) Remaining Schedule: Seattle, @Arizona, Chicago, NY Giants, @Green Bay (ouch!)
Green Bay 7-4 (5-3 conf) Remaining Schedule: @Detroit, Dallas, @Oakland, @Arizona, Minny
Chicago 5-6 (2-5 conf) Remaining Schedule: Niners, Washington, @Minny, @Bucs, Detroit
Detroit 4-7 (3-4 conf) Remaining Schedule: Green Bay, @Rams, @Saints., San Fran, @Chicago
The first thing that leaps out at me is the remaining games on Minny's schedule. Three out of five games are against not only winning opponents but *quality* winning opponents (Seattle, Arizona, and Green Bay) all three of whom have excellent QB play, balanced offense, and a good defense (yes even Seattle). Just looking at it, I think it's clear that Minny is going to lose most of their remaining games....which is born out if you compare Minny's DVOA against the DVOA of their remaining foes. Even though Green Bay is a game behind, they only have TWO opponents with winning record (Arizona and Minny) and they've already beaten one....furthermore their DVOA is better than one of them (Minny). As such I am going to predict right now that Green Bay (and not Minny) will win the NFC North crown. Of course if Green Bay continues to struggle against inferior teams, I may change my mind. Tomorrow's game vs Detroit will tell me a great deal about which Green Bay we have to worry about in December.
Clinches: While no one in the NFCN can clinch either a divisional title or wildcard, it's pretty clear just by looking at the optics of both the records and who they are playing that the divisional race will be between Green Bay and Minny (see above as to who I think wins that race). I also believe at this time that the loser of that race will most likely be the #6 seed (esp if it's Minny like I think it will be). Chicago could potentially get into the mix for the Wildcard but they have a terrible conference record and lose tiebreaks against competing teams (such as Seattle). As such about the best the Bears can hope to do is play spoiler.
Elimination Scenarios: Although no one in the NFCN can clinch, if Detroit loses tomorrow against Green Bay they are ELIMINATED from the playoffs. Why? If Detroit loses, Green Bay improves to 8-4 and Detroit falls to 4-8. This will eliminate Detroit from the wildcard since it will take a bare mimimum of 9 games (more likely 10) to qualify.* It also eliminates Detroit from the NFCN crown because to catch Green Bay, Minny would have to win at least once (beating Green Bay) which would give them nine wins, and if they catch Minny, Minny would have to lose out which means that Green Bay would have at least nine wins.
*See *Note at the end of this article.
So who should Seahawk fans root for? I hope it's obvious that we root for Seattle to beat Minny. Believe it or not I think we also want to root for Green Bay tomorrow against Detroit. This not only eliminates Detroit playoff contention but for the next month, Green Bay is (strangely) Seattle's ally. Normally I'd also say root against Chicago but not this week. This week we want Chicago to win (see NFCW) because that will eliminate San Fransisco.
Finally, what you've all been waiting for.......the NFC West:
Arizona 9-2 (6-1 conf) Remaining Games: @Rams, Minny, @Philly, Green Bay, Seattle
Seattle 6-5 (5-4 conf) Remaining Games: @Minny, @Ravens, Browns, Rams, @Arizona
St. Louis 4-7 (3-4 conf) Remaining Games: Arizona, Detroit, Bucs, @Seattle, @San Fran
San Fran 3-8 (2-7 conf) Remaining Games: @Chicago, @Cleveland, Cincy,@ Detroit, Rams
Obviously Arizona is in the driver's seat but not as much as the record would at first indicate. Furthermore if we look at the schedules, it's sets up extremely sweetly for the Seattle with an extremely cushy middle part against three third-rate teams all with back-up QBs, and two of those three games are at home. This almost hands Seattle 9 wins and it's one reason why I automatically eliminate any team with 8 wins or less maximum from even wild-card consideration even if that's technically not correct yet. What's more, since Arizona and Seattle play each other again, and Arizona only has a three game lead with Seattle virtually handed three wins down the stretch due to scheduling (that's how I'd have to look at it if I were rooting for Arizona), it means the Division race while still controlled by the Cardinals is a lot closer than it seems.
Clinching Scenarios: Contrary to what some may think, there is no way for any team to clinch the NFCW Crown this week. That's because even if Arizona were to win and Seattle were to lose, Arizona would go to 10-2 and Seattle would drop to 6-6. If Arizona were to lose out while Seattle were to win out from that point. both would finish 10-6. At that we'd look at head to head but that would be a wash (1-1) in this case. The next tie-break would be division record: Seattle in this case would have a division record of 4-2 while (edit)Arizona would also have a Division record of 4-2. Next we'd go win-loss-tie with common teams. That would be everyone but Carolina and Dallas for Seattle and New Orleans and Philly for Arizona. Under this scenario, both teams would be 9-5 against common opponents. The next tie break would be conference record, but again both teams would be tied at 7-5 in conference. The next tie break would be strength of victory and I believe Seattle wins that one in this particular case or at least Seattle could so Arizona wouldn't *quite* clinch.
Elimination Scenarios: San Fransisco has already been elminated from the NFCW Crown. That's because Arizona already has nine wins, and the best San Fran can do is 8-8. Furthermore, if Seattle wins and San Fran loses then San Fran is eliminated from the playoffs altogether (officially .... in my unofficial estimation they are already eliminated), Why? If Seattle wins, they are assured of 7 wins and have already beaten San Fran twice. The best San Fran could do is tie Seattle and San Fran loses all the tie breaks (even a hypothetical three way one with Seattle and the Bears). St Louis can be eliminated from the Division race if they lose to Arizona (obviously). They would still have an outside shot at a wildcard in that case. There are no other elimination scenarios (see above for why).
*Note: Technically those teams assured of only finishing 8-8 at best aren't quite eliminated from the playoffs, but for our purposes we probably should consider them to be effectively eliminated already. Why? Carolina and Arizona already have more than 8 wins, and Minny has exactly 8 wins. That's three of the six playoff slots. We also know that SOMEONE will win the NFCE regardless of record, and it's seems very likely that the division will be won at 9-7 or worse. Given (see above) that most of the NFCE teams have yet to play each other, inter-division games will virtually assure that any team that doesn't win the NFCE crown will be less than 8-8. That eliminates another playoff slot. What's more Green Bay has 7 wins and either Minny or GB will win the division and they play each other. I think it's very safe to assume that the second place team in the NFCN will be at *least* 9-7 and take one of the two wildcard spots. Finally Seattle already has 6 wins and probably (outside of Minny this week and Arizona at the end of the year) perhaps the cushiest December schedule in the NFL both qualitatively and quantitatively, and I think it's clear that Seattle will finish the year at least 9-7 as well. Thus I don't see how any team at 8-8 can possibly make the playoffs as a wildcard. I expect that to be official within the next two weeks.
I hope everyone enjoyed this analysis.
Source: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace
