Sarlacc83":26pieb4w said:
I wanted Jimmy Smith that year, and while he'd probably be expendable on this team, he also could probably get traded for a pretty nice price. (At the time we didn't know we were going to get Sherman, though I'm sure the front office planned on taking him.)
When it comes to not getting talents like Okung or ET late in the first round (and by the way, half of Pete and John's first picks have been 'high', except that they traded back from in 2012 so it's not really an excuse, yet, to say they've been hampered by draft position), isn't that at odds with what I'm trying to say? In other words, shouldn't John and Pete be able to identify elite talent just as easily, if not more easily, in the first than the 5th?
Also, you seem to get the impression I'm down on the draft or the process; I was simply pointing out (and bemoaning) that the first half of the 2011 draft hasn't gone our way. I'm not bagging on them for making mistakes, because you have to make mistakes in order to learn from them, but I don't think it should be anathema to say things ought to have gone better given the talent in the process, either.
Well it sounded like you were saying the 2011 draft was a failure because of a weak start, which is something I completely disagree with.
I think talent evaluating is less than half the process. Most of it is coaching and development. JS is a top drawer GM no doubt, but it's Pete and his coaching staff that have got us where we are. Chancellor was thought to be too stiff/slow for the NFL, but Seattle got great results with him because they only needed him to be an in-the-box safety most of the time. JR Sweezy was a nondescript college DT but Cable's got him on a really nice trajectory as a guard convert. Sherman was not a great prospect, but they coached him into an ultra-elite corner, it goes on and on. Seattle has by far the best roster in the NFL, with pro-bowl talent everywhere, and only a small fraction of it came from rounds 1-2.
And as said before, every team's draft board is 90% the same in round one and probably more than 50% the same in round 2. I forget who it was (Tony Pauline?) but there was a sports journalist who got to see the majority of draft boards before the 2012 draft and he confirmed as much. If we miss on an early pick, it's not a talent evaluation problem, usually (every year there are a few hype jobs and also some guys who get talked up so that other GMs might over-draft them (Aaron Curry, etc)). If we miss on an early pick, it's usually luck more than anything. Even 1st round picks are a 50/50 proposal. Also, most 1st round picks do not become pro-bowlers. Something like 1/4 do, and PC/JS are batting above that line so far. Most 1st rounders become solid NFL players. If Carp was healthy, he'd probably be above average for his draft slot. Irvin is probably above average for his draft slot so far. Moffitt lived up to realistic expectations as a 3rd round pick but was being pushed out in maybe the NFL's deepest OL group.
Whereas the common perception is that you need to hit on picks early and hope to get lucky later, I think the setup PC/JS have is actually the opposite. They are so good at amassing a large volume of 2nd tier talents and coaching them up, ultimately netting a few interesting players from "unexpected" places every season. But it's not really unexpected at all. It's probability times high volume with a terrific coaching staff.
Regarding Irvin, that wasn't a deep 1st round that year. Had we not traded our 2013 pick for Harvin, I would have liked our options at #25 (Datone Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, etc) far more than the options at #12 in 2012. I am a little concerned about the uncertainty around Irvin, but I really liked him as a prospect and he's added quite a bit of weight. All things considered he had a good rookie season.
Regarding Smith, I never liked him. Classic case of an athlete not a football player, he was Jordan Kent the CB on tape. He's been just a guy in the NFL, and if he were a Seahawk, I doubt we'd unload him for much more than we unloaded Lo-Jack for a couple years ago.
If I could take that pick back, I'd probably take Kaepernick just to keep him away from SF, but then we might not have Wilson, so I dunno. Wilkerson has been a quality starter for New York and would fit nicely at 5-tech for us. After that, maybe Sheard? Rudolph? 2011 was a very thin draft, you basically need a crystal ball to know which picks to make in that late 1st to late 2nd range. I think Carp can still be a nice pick, but he better show up quick because the competition on the OL is intense right now.