Interesting stats on Wilson, our RBs (and Bevell)

[Laloosh]

Russell Wilson passing stats on 3rd and 4 or less:

11/29...37.9%...196 yds....6.76 ypa...0 TD, 1 INT 1 Fumble return for TD...8 Sacks for -6 yds Two of his completions went for 96 yds, otherwise, he'd have a 3.70 ypa. His sack rate is 28%.

Out of 29 3rd down and 4 or less attempts, Wilson converted 10 first downs, a 34% success rate. 5 of those first downs came vs Chicago.



Now compare that to our RB's on 3rd and 4 or less:

11 carries for 60 yds...5.45 ypc. 7 first downs. That's a success rate of 64%



Now let's talk Bevell. With Wilson sucking ass on 3rd and 4 or less. Sucking so bad that in 27 of the 29 pass plays Bevell called, Wilson had a 3.7 ypa. Not even enough for a first down on average from 4 yds out. With Wilson converting a measly 34% of his third down attempts, Bevell, offensive genius that he is, calls 3 pass plays for every 1 time he runs the ball. Despite the teams 64% success rate on the ground and a dominating 5.45 ypc on 3rd and 4 or less.

He's killing us. We have to balance our offense and run at least half the time in those 3rd down situations.

Bevell killed us in the SB and he's killing us now. Fire Bevell.

Oh, btw, here is Wilson when NOT throwing on 3rd and 4 yds or less:

113/151...74.8%...1237 yds...8.19 ypa...7 TD, 2 INT, 2 Fumbles....18 sacks. A sack rate of 12%.

Here is our RB's when NOT rushing on 3rd and 4 yds or less:

162 carries for 767 yds...4.7 ypc.

So to summarize. Wilson: sucks ass on 3rd and short. Plays much better otherwise. RB's: Kick ass on 3rd and short. Better than any other time in the game. Bevell: Calls pass plays on 3rd and short 3 out of 4 times. Offense is dying on 3rd downs.

Any questions?

Just to clarify something here... Of those 12 rushes of 3rd and 4 or less, only one was 3rd and 4 (Wilson ran for the 1st down). Two of them were 3rd and 3 (neither were converted). Two of them were 3rd and 2 (only 1 was converted).

In summary you had:
3rd and 4: 1 (converted by Wilson)
3rd and 3: 2 (0 converted)
3rd and 2: 2 (1/2 converted)
3rd and 1: 7 (5/7 converted)

It's a bit misleading to use the "3rd and 4" stat so liberally imo.

 

[OkieHawk]

I worked my way through the play by play of every game. Used ESPN's site.

Thanks again for this data. It's hard to find any reason to keep Bevell after looking at this.

 

[WilsonMVP]

Russell Wilson passing stats on 3rd and 4 or less:

11/29...37.9%...196 yds....6.76 ypa...0 TD, 1 INT 1 Fumble return for TD...8 Sacks for -6 yds Two of his completions went for 96 yds, otherwise, he'd have a 3.70 ypa. His sack rate is 28%.

Out of 29 3rd down and 4 or less attempts, Wilson converted 10 first downs, a 34% success rate. 5 of those first downs came vs Chicago.



Now compare that to our RB's on 3rd and 4 or less:

11 carries for 60 yds...5.45 ypc. 7 first downs. That's a success rate of 64%



Now let's talk Bevell. With Wilson sucking ass on 3rd and 4 or less. Sucking so bad that in 27 of the 29 pass plays Bevell called, Wilson had a 3.7 ypa. Not even enough for a first down on average from 4 yds out. With Wilson converting a measly 34% of his third down attempts, Bevell, offensive genius that he is, calls 3 pass plays for every 1 time he runs the ball. Despite the teams 64% success rate on the ground and a dominating 5.45 ypc on 3rd and 4 or less.

He's killing us. We have to balance our offense and run at least half the time in those 3rd down situations.

Bevell killed us in the SB and he's killing us now. Fire Bevell.

Oh, btw, here is Wilson when NOT throwing on 3rd and 4 yds or less:

113/151...74.8%...1237 yds...8.19 ypa...7 TD, 2 INT, 2 Fumbles....18 sacks. A sack rate of 12%.

Here is our RB's when NOT rushing on 3rd and 4 yds or less:

162 carries for 767 yds...4.7 ypc.

So to summarize. Wilson: sucks ass on 3rd and short. Plays much better otherwise. RB's: Kick ass on 3rd and short. Better than any other time in the game. Bevell: Calls pass plays on 3rd and short 3 out of 4 times. Offense is dying on 3rd downs.

Any questions?

This...this is some crazy stuff right there. Thanks for compiling this data, very enlightening.

I would love to see how many of these 3rd and shorts are empty formation or shotgun formation though. It seems like a ton of times when we had 3rd and 4th or less we would split everyone out with no threat of a run

 

[WilsonMVP]

On third downs altogether this year Wilson is

31/49 63% completion 452 yards 3TD 1INT with a 105.1 QB rating and 9.2 Y/A

HIs first down rating is 96.6 and second down rating is 95.2.

So as far as QB goes he is actually the best on 3rd downs

For comparrsion on 3rd downs

Rodgers has a 105.5 QB rating
Brady 112.9
Dalton 105
Luck 94.2

 

[Bigbadhawk]

You show 11 for 29 on 3rd down and 4 or less to go. ESPN Split stats show,

3rd and 2 or less to go:
6/9...66.7%...59 yds...8.2 ypa...0 TD...0 Int...1 sack...91.9% rating

3rd and 3-7 yards to go:
14/25...56.0%...204 yds...8.16 ypa...3 TD...1 Int...5 sack...105.7% rating

3rd and >6 yards to go:
16/30...53.3%...221 yds...8.1 ypa...2 TD...1 Int...5 sack...88.6% rating

so based on the stats via the url below the difference from the 3rd and >6 yds to go and what you have for 4 or less to go means 3rd and 5 stats would be 5 completes on 1 attempt (not possible). Sorry but the stats that you posted compared to my link aren't adding up. Perhaps I am wrong but the info via the url is what i posted here.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14881/russell-wilson

 

[erik2690]

Thanks for this breakdown. It confirms what my eyes have been watching all season. Somehow I blame Ciara.

I blame the ex wife. Obviously, she shattered his manhood. That's why he's afraid to bone Ciara. And that lack of confidence is showing up in his play ever since the divorce. He hesitates. He's not clutch anymore. If ever you're going to be clutch, it's on 3rd and 4 or less.

Also, the beard. Men who get divorced and grow beards are a red flag for loss of confidence. Men who had beards from their youth are one thing, but studies have shown that some men grow beards in response to a divorce where they felt emasculated.

So I blame the castrating beyotch.

This is mostly a joke right? This weird psychoanalysis of people you don't know is always very strange to me. Like seriously this is odd. Why is 3rd and 4 more "clutch" than 3rd and 6 that distinction makes no sense.

 

[erik2690]

There are a couple people kinda pointing to the idea that these stats are a bit odd/off, wonder what the story is and whether the OP stats are completely accurate. Maybe it's just confusion with the "3rd and 4 or less" distinction making things seem off...?

 

[Laloosh]

You show 11 for 29 on 3rd down and 4 or less to go. ESPN Split stats show,

3rd and 2 or less to go:
6/9...66.7%...59 yds...8.2 ypa...0 TD...0 Int...1 sack...91.9% rating

3rd and 3-7 yards to go:
14/25...56.0%...204 yds...8.16 ypa...3 TD...1 Int...5 sack...105.7% rating

3rd and >6 yards to go:
16/30...53.3%...221 yds...8.1 ypa...2 TD...1 Int...5 sack...88.6% rating

so based on the stats via the url below the difference from the 3rd and >6 yds to go and what you have for 4 or less to go means 3rd and 5 stats would be 5 completes on 1 attempt (not possible). Sorry but the stats that you posted compared to my link aren't adding up. Perhaps I am wrong but the info via the url is what i posted here.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14881/russell-wilson

3rd and 4 or less passing (27 plays)
Wilson is 11/22, 0 TD, 1 INT, 1 FUM, 5 SAK, 9 1st downs (33%), 8.9 Y/A, 61.9 rating



TO GO:
0-3 yards: 18
4 yards: 9

http://pfref.com/tiny/NlS9N

on plays of 3rd and 0-3 yards (18 plays) he's 44% with a passer rating of 93.5.

on plays of 3rd and 4-6 yards (20 plays) he's 30% with a passer rating of 85.2.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Russell Wilson passing stats on 3rd and 4 or less:

11/29...37.9%...196 yds....6.76 ypa...0 TD, 1 INT 1 Fumble return for TD...8 Sacks for -6 yds Two of his completions went for 96 yds, otherwise, he'd have a 3.70 ypa. His sack rate is 28%.

Out of 29 3rd down and 4 or less attempts, Wilson converted 10 first downs, a 34% success rate. 5 of those first downs came vs Chicago.



Now compare that to our RB's on 3rd and 4 or less:

11 carries for 60 yds...5.45 ypc. 7 first downs. That's a success rate of 64%

Our high pass attempts on 3rd down are a big part of why that 64% is where it is.

We try running more often on third down and I guarantee that number drops as teams start planning for it more.

 

[Threedee]

1st Down is traditionally viewed as a running down, while 3rd & 3+ is traditionally viewed as a passing down. Typically, we'll have run the ball twice already by third down this season.

 

[leto69]

The run success is based on a small sample set and is inflated due to running a draw on 3rd and 15+ in our side of the field where were looking to punt and play it safe. Not to mention that this number is inflated as Wilson's running plays on 3rd down and not limited to RB only. If we were to just run on 3rd and short, we would have very little success.

We have to have balance

 

[Bigbadhawk]

You show 11 for 29 on 3rd down and 4 or less to go. ESPN Split stats show,

3rd and 2 or less to go:
6/9...66.7%...59 yds...8.2 ypa...0 TD...0 Int...1 sack...91.9% rating

3rd and 3-7 yards to go:
14/25...56.0%...204 yds...8.16 ypa...3 TD...1 Int...5 sack...105.7% rating

3rd and >6 yards to go:
16/30...53.3%...221 yds...8.1 ypa...2 TD...1 Int...5 sack...88.6% rating

so based on the stats via the url below the difference from the 3rd and >6 yds to go and what you have for 4 or less to go means 3rd and 5 stats would be 5 completes on 1 attempt (not possible). Sorry but the stats that you posted compared to my link aren't adding up. Perhaps I am wrong but the info via the url is what i posted here.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14881/russell-wilson

3rd and 4 or less passing (27 plays)
Wilson is 11/22, 0 TD, 1 INT, 1 FUM, 5 SAK, 9 1st downs (33%), 8.9 Y/A, 61.9 rating



TO GO:
0-3 yards: 18
4 yards: 9

http://pfref.com/tiny/NlS9N

on plays of 3rd and 0-3 yards (18 plays) he's 44% with a passer rating of 93.5.

on plays of 3rd and 4-6 yards (20 plays) he's 30% with a passer rating of 85.2.

Was checking out that site you linked. The problem isnt 3rd and 4 or below, plug in the numbers for 3rd and 4 period (holy craptastic). 3rd and 3 is 50/50 but 3rd and 4 he has yet to get 1 completion.

 

[Laloosh]

You show 11 for 29 on 3rd down and 4 or less to go. ESPN Split stats show,

3rd and 2 or less to go:
6/9...66.7%...59 yds...8.2 ypa...0 TD...0 Int...1 sack...91.9% rating

3rd and 3-7 yards to go:
14/25...56.0%...204 yds...8.16 ypa...3 TD...1 Int...5 sack...105.7% rating

3rd and >6 yards to go:
16/30...53.3%...221 yds...8.1 ypa...2 TD...1 Int...5 sack...88.6% rating

so based on the stats via the url below the difference from the 3rd and >6 yds to go and what you have for 4 or less to go means 3rd and 5 stats would be 5 completes on 1 attempt (not possible). Sorry but the stats that you posted compared to my link aren't adding up. Perhaps I am wrong but the info via the url is what i posted here.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14881/russell-wilson

3rd and 4 or less passing (27 plays)
Wilson is 11/22, 0 TD, 1 INT, 1 FUM, 5 SAK, 9 1st downs (33%), 8.9 Y/A, 61.9 rating



TO GO:
0-3 yards: 18
4 yards: 9

http://pfref.com/tiny/NlS9N

on plays of 3rd and 0-3 yards (18 plays) he's 44% with a passer rating of 93.5.

on plays of 3rd and 4-6 yards (20 plays) he's 30% with a passer rating of 85.2.

Was checking out that site you linked. The problem isnt 3rd and 4 or below, plug in the numbers for 3rd and 4 period (holy craptastic). 3rd and 3 is 50/50 but 3rd and 4 he has yet to get 1 completion.

Actually he's 1/6. Had the 45 yarder to Graham against the Panthers.

 

[mrblitz]

Unless you can't get over that one time you passed on short yardage and it cost you a Super Bowl maybe?

...like bevell continues to pound that square peg into the round hole?...

 

[Bigbadhawk]

You show 11 for 29 on 3rd down and 4 or less to go. ESPN Split stats show,

3rd and 2 or less to go:
6/9...66.7%...59 yds...8.2 ypa...0 TD...0 Int...1 sack...91.9% rating

3rd and 3-7 yards to go:
14/25...56.0%...204 yds...8.16 ypa...3 TD...1 Int...5 sack...105.7% rating

3rd and >6 yards to go:
16/30...53.3%...221 yds...8.1 ypa...2 TD...1 Int...5 sack...88.6% rating

so based on the stats via the url below the difference from the 3rd and >6 yds to go and what you have for 4 or less to go means 3rd and 5 stats would be 5 completes on 1 attempt (not possible). Sorry but the stats that you posted compared to my link aren't adding up. Perhaps I am wrong but the info via the url is what i posted here.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14881/russell-wilson

3rd and 4 or less passing (27 plays)
Wilson is 11/22, 0 TD, 1 INT, 1 FUM, 5 SAK, 9 1st downs (33%), 8.9 Y/A, 61.9 rating



TO GO:
0-3 yards: 18
4 yards: 9

http://pfref.com/tiny/NlS9N

on plays of 3rd and 0-3 yards (18 plays) he's 44% with a passer rating of 93.5.

on plays of 3rd and 4-6 yards (20 plays) he's 30% with a passer rating of 85.2.

Was checking out that site you linked. The problem isnt 3rd and 4 or below, plug in the numbers for 3rd and 4 period (holy craptastic). 3rd and 3 is 50/50 but 3rd and 4 he has yet to get 1 completion.

Actually he's 1/6. Had the 45 yarder to Graham against the Panthers.

Well including the sacks he is 1 for 9

 

[erik2690]

I mean their overall conversion % is pretty poor so not passing well on 3rd and short doesn't seem far fetched certainly. It feels like the run is getting stuffed so often on early downs, not sure what the answer is necessarily, but certainly seems 3rd and short should be run heavy.

 

[Laloosh]

I mean their overall conversion % is pretty poor so not passing well on 3rd and short doesn't seem far fetched certainly. It feels like the run is getting stuffed so often on early downs, not sure what the answer is necessarily, but certainly seems 3rd and short should be run heavy.

This sort of speaks to something I posted a couple of weeks back but Lynch seems to be getting stuffed a lot more often than Rawls.

Runs Stuffed:
Lynch: 12 / 55 (21.8%) - that's 2nd worst in the league right now
Rawls: 04 / 59 (06.8%)

 

[mrt144]

12:55 left 4th, 3rd and 9
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8g59b ... sp=sharing

8:53 left in the 4th, 3rd and 5

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8g59b ... sp=sharing

Doomed play vs. Called out play

 

[Laloosh]

12:55 left 4th, 3rd and 9
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8g59b ... sp=sharing

8:53 left in the 4th, 3rd and 4

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8g59b ... sp=sharing

Doomed play vs. Called out play

It's got to be unnerving as the QB and as an OC not knowing if your offensive line can block long enough for even a quick out route to develop. The 3rd and 9 is dead on arrival with that pass blocking.

 

[mrt144]

The 3rd and 9 is especially bad because that is a coverage that would make a pick out of that. See how the CB up top is watching the play the entire time? Given his position and length of throw to ADB running straight up the slot, 2 DBs have a shot on INT.

I just wonder how this is supposed to actually work when the line holds. If Russ can't recognize coverage (and how you do that at the line is why I'm watching all 22s and eating a pint of Ben and Jerry's among other reasons) and this is a 'take it if it's there, don't force it' kind of play, it just reeks of lack of killer instinct. At least look for a first down?

But the only word that comes to mind on both plays is 'insipid'.