In Defense of the Offense

[Sgt Largent]

And that Scott, is really the big issue.

Both the offense AND the defense are inconsistent. Ridiculously so.

The question is how, with so much talent, does this team struggle to be consistent?

More importantly, why?

And I think the we have been spinning in circles arguing about the problem with the leaves, when the real issue is a root problem - a problem that affects both the offense and defense, and more importantly seems to impact it more this year than last

AAANNNNDDD now we are where I was trying to go with my first post.

It's probably my fault by pulling a Modern Day Media move and leading with a controversial headline that ended up being too much to overlook.

I quote myself from the OP:

"Even though I didn’t really defend the offense at all in this post, I wanted to show that sometimes we can be right for the wrong reasons. It’s absolutely true that our offense is letting us down this year, but not because we aren’t making 1st downs in the 4th Quarter. We aren’t scoring TDs at anywhere near even league average in the Red Zone.

That being said, we expect a lot from our defense. If the above meant we never had a lead, I would have no problem absolving the defense of any crimes......We have to figure out how to get better on both sides of the ball in high leverage situations."

 

[Sgt Largent]

Weren't we supposed to kill it in the red zone this year because of the Graham trade?

THis post got ignored in the flame war, but it sums up the real issue. Talent, but no use of talent in the RZ.

Not ignored at all. Our Redzone inefficiency is exactly the problem on offense, and was a major point, with numbers, in the OP. But, as I said, maybe the post title was too hard to ignore and I did a poor job of redirecting the conversation back to its original intent.

The offense needs to punch it in, instead of kicking it over.

The defense needs to dance with the girl he "brung" and seal the deal, instead of getting smashed and passing out right before last call.

 

[Scottemojo]

I have a little different take.

Every game has a feeling out period. Everybody has a gameplan, sure, but often in the first half teams are getting a feel for what may or may not work.

good offense early in games makes coaches abandon gameplans and play catchup. The number of offensive coordinator/QB combos who are really good at that is pretty low.
The one pattern that stands out this year in all the inconsistency being talked about is an extremely slow starting offense that has put little pressure on opposing OC's to get out of their gameplan. OC's are free to use all their calls to explore what might work, and to set up variations of those looks, the changeup based on the look that worked once already, because they are not worried about getting behind on the scoreboard.


To sum up, it is my thinking that a very slow starting offense gives the other offense time to get into the gameplan, and in fact I would go so far as to say that the lack of interceptions by our D is in part because our offense has been so unable to get going that opposing offenses don't have to challenge our secondary all that often. Our slow starting offense keeps the other offenses play sheet wide open, and allows them to take safe shots or play field position football.

When we hung 20 on the Niners in the first 3 drives, how much of Chryst's play sheet got eliminated?

And the week prior, when we had run a dozen plays and the Cards had run 30 plus, whose play sheet was getting shrunk? Later in the game, even after losing the lead, who had more info about what plays should be there for the taking, us or the Cards?

A predictably slow starting offense is the one season long commonality.

 

[TwistedHusky]

Ok here is my take.

I think we are focusing so much on big plays (splash plays) that we have little to no framework to the offense. The numbers seem to agree with me.

According to FootballOutsiders, in 2015 we are #1 in rushing offense and #13 in passing. Giving us #14 overall, which is not amazing but not terrible. So where is the problem?

In 2013 our Drive Success Rate was #14 in the NFL. But we were backed by a defense that was converting 1 of 4 opponent drives into a turnover. The combination was enough to vault us to a SB.

in 2014 it was #10.

This year? 28th.

We still get yards, but there is way too much "Heave and Hope" as our offensive strategy.

So we are one of the worst in the NFL at moving the chains on any given drive. And we have all seen that, the long bomb to "insert receiver here" on first down does not work, and given the next call is a obvious run - that gets stuffed, leading to a 3rd and long where the lack of threat of playaction means the defense is free to rush the QB with no hesitation.

We have a problem reliably converting.

That is also why, in OT, we seem unable to move the ball with the chance to win. We are able to randomly get a few big successes here and there, but it is all dependent on plays that you cannot count on. And all of them seem to be the coveted big plays that Carroll preaches separate the great teams from the good.

I am in the tech industry. See this all the time where executives see an indicator (KPI) that based on the relationship shows how a collection of elements are working. And since that shows progress to the goal, the goal becomes to push up the KPI - the actual progress to the goal gets lost. And with all the focus on the KPI, the process changes - so the results change. The KPIs go up, but the actual progress to the goal does not, or even falls BECAUSE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE KPIs and the success changes.

And I think we instinctively know this, we can move the ball or score "When Russ does something crazy" or when Lynch or Russ break out.

I would even submit the surplus of big plays are a symptom of the play of great teams, and not a method to sustained success. But we clearly are pushing for more of those, and in doing, we are losing the ability to develop our offense into a consistent effective engine.

 

[Siouxhawk]

All of this doesn't get to the root of the problem and that was the breakdown of our offensive line and how much that hindered what we could do on offense. Aside from some penalties, the blocking has looked pretty decent the last couple of weeks and I'm hopeful that cohesiveness continues these last six games. We need them.
The coaching staff took on a lot this year trying to get the line up to snuff and also tweaking their philosophy of transitioning Russ into more of a pocket guy. We all understand the reasoning behind this is to preserve Russell's health, but when that line wasn't ready to offer that training-wheels type pass protection, it turned into a mess of epic proportions (all those sacks). I have a feeling Cable and the rest of the staff felt comfortable enough that our line could handle the pass protect aspect of the game, but would need to work on the run game. When neither clicked, it turned into a miserable first half of the season.
And I do understand how the offense could have helped the defense, but our recent history tells us that when all we need is one clutch stop by our defense, we've been rewarded. It's how our team is built. What did we have, 4 chances to make one stop in the fourth quarter to close out a win? Get a couple more of those and we're 7-3 right now.
But that is all water under the bridge at this juncture. I feel as good about this team as I have in a while and I'm staying positive that we're back playing at a level most of us expects and we're going to have a nice second half. Go Hawks!

 

[brimsalabim]

This is nice work SGT. If you ever have the time I'd love to also see the numbers vs the league average on penalties in the red zone and penalties derailing drives. It really seems we have a lot of opportunities pass us by between our conservative game plan and being knocked off schedule by penalties.

 

[scutterhawk]

I'm not saying the defense doesn't have it's share of issues, but also keep in mind the offense has been bolstered by defensive and special teams scores.

This link illustrates this:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/offensive-point-share-pct

The Seahawks rank 31st in the NFL in the percentage of total points attributable to the offense.

We're also 26th in offensive touchdowns per game. 30th in red zone scoring attempts per game. 32nd in red zone TDs per game. 25th in 4th quarter points per game.

It's not pretty.

And the ALL WORLD Defense gives up FIVE 4th quarter LEADS, and aren't in any way responsible for any of those FIVE LOSES?
Defense wins Championships..... is a false statement
IF DEFENSE got us there in 2013, & 2014, why aren't they closing the same deals in 2015?
Not saying that the Offense couldn't do better, but when Run First identity Marshawn is hurt, and has no holes to run through, that that are suppose to be opened up by the Converted greenhorns on the O-Line ,your run game ISN'T THERE, so....You just rely on that same anemic O-Line to pick up the blitzing Defenses so your Quarterback can get the passing game up to snuff....OH WAIT!, he's holding the ball too long, that 2.1 Seconds that he has, is more than enough time for the play to develop.
Do you find it anywhere IRONIC that this last game took on an old familiar look when Thomas Rawls was keeping the Defense on their heels with his back breaking runs, just like when Marshawn Lynch was healthy?
Seahawks Defensive mistakes made this Season is NOT typical of the Defense fielded in 2013, nor 2014.
Lots of moving parts, lots of blame to go around.

 

[KiwiHawk]

I'm not saying the defense doesn't have it's share of issues, but also keep in mind the offense has been bolstered by defensive and special teams scores.

This link illustrates this:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/offensive-point-share-pct

The Seahawks rank 31st in the NFL in the percentage of total points attributable to the offense.

We're also 26th in offensive touchdowns per game. 30th in red zone scoring attempts per game. 32nd in red zone TDs per game. 25th in 4th quarter points per game.

It's not pretty.

And the ALL WORLD Defense gives up FIVE 4th quarter LEADS, and aren't in any way responsible for any of those FIVE LOSES?
Defense wins Championships..... is a false statement
IF DEFENSE got us there in 2013, & 2014, why aren't they closing the same deals in 2015?
Not saying that the Offense couldn't do better, but when Run First identity Marshawn is hurt, and has no holes to run through, that that are suppose to be opened up by the Converted greenhorns on the O-Line ,your run game ISN'T THERE, so....You just rely on that same anemic O-Line to pick up the blitzing Defenses so your Quarterback can get the passing game up to snuff....OH WAIT!, he's holding the ball too long, that 2.1 Seconds that he has, is more than enough time for the play to develop.
Do you find it anywhere IRONIC that this last game took on an old familiar look when Thomas Rawls was keeping the Defense on their heels with his back breaking runs, just like when Marshawn Lynch was healthy?
Seahawks Defensive mistakes made this Season is NOT typical of the Defense fielded in 2013, nor 2014.
Lots of moving parts, lots of blame to go around.

What part of "I'm not saying the defense doesn't have it's share of issues" do you not understand?

The defense has problems - one of them just got benched - but this thread is not about the defense; it's about the offense.

I presented data that illustrates the offense's inability to score points while acknowledging the defense has issues. In no way did I present anything that limited the blame to the passing game.

I agree that in prior years we have been able to grind out several minutes of the final period with the running game, and often ended the game with the ball in our hands running out the clock. That's lacking this year. Instead, the offense is not moving the ball well, which puts pressure on the defense which, as I stated, has issues.

With regard to last game, I'm not taking a lot out of it because of the level of competition. We will not be facing the 49ers in the playoffs when the games really matter. We'll be facing the teams we have lost to, in their stadiums.

Also, please look up the meaning of "ironic" because you're using it in the Alanis Morissette sense, and the only thing ironic was the complete lack of irony.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

When we hung 20 on the Niners in the first 3 drives, how much of Chryst's play sheet got eliminated?

I really want his brother here to replace Bevell.

 

[Anthony!]

I'm not saying the defense doesn't have it's share of issues, but also keep in mind the offense has been bolstered by defensive and special teams scores.

This link illustrates this:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/offensive-point-share-pct

The Seahawks rank 31st in the NFL in the percentage of total points attributable to the offense.

We're also 26th in offensive touchdowns per game. 30th in red zone scoring attempts per game. 32nd in red zone TDs per game. 25th in 4th quarter points per game.

It's not pretty.

And the ALL WORLD Defense gives up FIVE 4th quarter LEADS, and aren't in any way responsible for any of those FIVE LOSES?
Defense wins Championships..... is a false statement
IF DEFENSE got us there in 2013, & 2014, why aren't they closing the same deals in 2015?
Not saying that the Offense couldn't do better, but when Run First identity Marshawn is hurt, and has no holes to run through, that that are suppose to be opened up by the Converted greenhorns on the O-Line ,your run game ISN'T THERE, so....You just rely on that same anemic O-Line to pick up the blitzing Defenses so your Quarterback can get the passing game up to snuff....OH WAIT!, he's holding the ball too long, that 2.1 Seconds that he has, is more than enough time for the play to develop.
Do you find it anywhere IRONIC that this last game took on an old familiar look when Thomas Rawls was keeping the Defense on their heels with his back breaking runs, just like when Marshawn Lynch was healthy?
Seahawks Defensive mistakes made this Season is NOT typical of the Defense fielded in 2013, nor 2014.
Lots of moving parts, lots of blame to go around.

You need to understand to some, the defense was the only reason we got to the SB. Now that the defense is not playing well then need to blame something or one, and they are not going to blame the defense so they blame the offense. In other words we win its all about the defense we loose its all about the offense.

 

[Hawks46]

Great post SGT. It has to many stats to garner as much attention as it should

Twisted, well that was a long post. In the last two years, any time we give up 27 or more points, we lose. Whose fault is that? Granted our Offense scored more last year, but still when we give up too many points we lose. That says Defense is to blame.

The stat is actually that Wilson is winless when the opposition scores 24 points or more. That's in 4 years.

This year, the league average defense gives up 23 points.

So if the defense has a below average game, we lose. That's on the offense.

To extrapolate further, the best defenses on record in recent years were the 2002 Bucs and the 2000 Ravens. The Bucs gave up 12.1 ppg, the Ravens were at 14. Our defense the last 3 years gave up 15, 15, and 17 ppg.

So, once again, if you have a QB, or an offense, that needs your defense to perform at historically elite levels, you have a problem, and it's not with the defense. It's a team effort, that was lost on some of us in football where it was so competitive that it sometimes became "offense vs. defense" even against each other. Thing is, you need to score points to win, and keep the other team from scoring points.

Relying on close to the NFL equivalent of a shutout every game isn't a winning formula for success. It worked for us for a couple of years, but we can see how delicate the balance of personnel is to keep a team historically elite. It's not sustainable, and we're seeing it here and now.

Misuse of that stat. Do you think the 150 points we scored over 3 weeks could have survived a 24+ game by the opponent? How bout the Atlanta playoff game? Did we need an historic defense to win that one? Superbowl 49? We all agree the offense completely hosed us right? But we also have up two eleventyone play touchdown drives in the 4th quarter leading by 10.

The whole point of the OP was reinforce the idea that teams win and lose games, not individual units.

We're saying the same thing really. We need a good defense and a good offense to win. Balance. The only title Peyton Manning ever won was also with the best defense he ever had.

My point was from a macro viewpoint. If we have an offense that relies on a historically good defense, it's going to disappoint more often than not. We've lost a few players on the defense, and haven't replaced them at that elite level. That's all it takes for a historically elite defense to come down to very good.

Also, you're kind of making my point with the reference to the Atlanta playoff game. The defense pissed that one away in the final seconds. That year, the defense lead the league in points allowed, but the Niners lead the league in overall defense. We were a very good defense that year, but not historically elite, like we were in 2013 and 2014.

And seriously, SB 49....the defense totally set the tone for that game. They blasted the Broncos so hard that they never really came back. The Donks were playing pretty good defense and we had trouble running the ball, but Wilson and the WRs had a good game. That game looks a lot different if we start out trading TD's with the Broncos. It's a facile analogy.

We're basically agreeing, just saying it differently.

 

[olyfan63]

Elite defense + slightly above average offense = Superb Owl.
Near-elite defense + slightly below average offense = Missing the playoffs.