Five thirty Eight's 2022 QB prediction, lots of surprises

[toffee]

538, the polling and rating gurus, published their QB ranking for 2022. Russ came in #13 behind Cousin and Trubisky, shocking, those aren't names that belong in the dame breath as Russ. Geno came in #29, right behind Jimmy G's #28, surprise surprise, Mayfield at #51, Lance at #36, Wentz at #34, and Drew Lock at #24!!!!

Recent FiveThirtyEight projection likes Drew Lock over Geno Smith, and doesn’t like Russell WIlson at all

The math over at FiveThirtyEight tends to be fascinating, generally. They do predictions, analysis, how many trees Bob Ross painted, etc. 538’s great; they make us smile. The most recent 2022...

www.fieldgulls.com

 

[Appyhawk]

I see those rankings as more palatable than the others I've seen.

As for Stafford, his ranking sure rocketed up since he joined the Rams and survived a SB. Before that he was a "yeah he can throw but has never done anything" guy. It just blows me away how the pundits are so bent toward what have you done for me lately instead of body of work one day but opposite the next, depending on who is darling of the moment.

 

[TwistedHusky]

Yeah, Stafford isn't #7.

He did his best to try to lose the SB.

Not a guy that even belongs in the top 10.
Seeing that, most of the other ratings are suspect.

 

[jammerhawk]

All the ratings are suspect with Watson’s being better than Herbert’s and being top 5 after not playing in forever.

Agree about Stafford and think the ratings are somewhat herd thinking rather than reality based.

 

[Titus Pullo]

Pretty sad when Colt McCoy as a backup, is ranked over you.

 

[toffee]

Poor Jimmy, ranked so low after bringing his team to conference championship. I wouldn't trivialize that achievement, not too many QB played in conference championship games, My eyes are wide open for 9ers' 2022 season, with their savior playing, 538 had him at #36, below Geno this is.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

Pretty sad when Colt McCoy as a backup, is ranked over you.

This whole thing is garbage. The have Foles (Bears released him)and Justin Field’s backup both rated ahead of him.

 

[RampagingMice]

Where is Lamar Jackson?

 

[Ozzy]

This is one of the worst lists I have ever seen

 

[Chukarhawk]

this list is shit. Complete trash. Based on this, I'm a QB expert.

 

[Own The West]

Poor Carolina. How many draft picks did they dump into Mayfield and Darnold? I don't know that our guys are any better, but at least we didn't give up a 2nd and couple mid-rounders.

...now watch us give up a 2nd and a couple mid-rounders in week 6 for Jimmy G.

 

[WmHBonney]

Where/who are #s 14, 30-32 and 46? Weird.

 

[DarkVictory23]

The list is based on their 'ELO' formula, not personal opinion, so of course it's going to have some weird stuff. Any formula/math-based list that looks exactly like you think it should look has probably been messed with.

They provide the math (to some degree) on their website, so you can review whether they make decent choices re: what variables/stats etc. to include and how to factor them in. I think, to some degree, this list looks better than a lot of the 'expert' rankings that are typically based on subjective opinion but it's got it's issues like any one of these lists.

 

[bmorepunk]

Where/who are #s 14, 30-32 and 46? Weird.

That chart appears to be generated by the FieldGulls person.

FiveThirtyEight's QB ratings chart here.

Info on the ratings and team Elo rankings here. QB rating parameters:

The quarterback adjustment​

• Both teams and individual quarterbacks have rolling ratings based on their recent performance.
  • Performance is measured according to “VALUE,” a regression between ESPN’s Total QBR yards above replacement and basic box score numbers (including rushing stats) from a given game, adjusted for the quality of opposing defenses.
    • The formula for VALUE is: -2.2 * Pass Attempts + 3.7 * Completions + (Passing Yards / 5) + 11.3 * Passing TDs – 14.1 * Interceptions – 8 * Times Sacked – 1.1 * Rush Attempts + 0.6 * Rushing Yards + 15.9 * Rushing TDs.3
    • This metric is also adjusted for opposing defensive quality by computing a rolling rating for team QB VALUE allowed, subtracting league average from the VALUE an opponent usually gives up per game, and using that to adjust a QB’s performance for the game in question. So for example, if a team usually gives up a VALUE 5 points higher than the average team, we would adjust an individual QB’s performance downward by 5 points of VALUE to account for the easier opposing defense.
  • For individual QBs, the rolling rating is updated every 10 games. (i.e., Rating_new = 0.9 * Rating_old + 0.1 * Game_VALUE ).
  • For teams, the rolling rating is updated every 20 games.
    • This implies that short-term “hot” and “cold” streaks by individual QBs have predictive value, which can trigger a nonzero pregame QB adjustment even when a team has had the same starter for each of its previous 20 games.
  • The rolling rating represents the VALUE we’d expect a quarterback (whether at the individual or team level) to produce against a passing defense of average quality in the next start. To convert between VALUE and Elo, the rolling rating can be multiplied by 3.3 to get the number of Elo points a QB is expected to be worth compared with an undrafted rookie replacement.

 

[sdog1981]

Where is Lamar Jackson?

I don't see him on the list either. Just shows you how much they double-checked their work.

 

[bmorepunk]

I don't see him on the list either. Just shows you how much they double-checked their work.

If you're referring to whoever posted this up on Field Gulls, then yes. They appear to have generated this chart.

FIveThirtyEight's rating of Jackson is 163. He's the missing 14th ranked QB. Tyrod Taylor's rating is 107 so he should be the missing 46th.

 

[Scout]

Wilson could be higher but his highs and lows were more prominent the last two seasons.

Ryan actually put on a clinic last year playing with very little talent. I wouldn't rate Foles higher than Ryan based on what Ryan did with less talent around him on offense and defense.

Lock rated that high is a surprise to an extent but in real game situations he is capable of performing. But he is a streaky player so he could easily be ranked ten spots lower.

Lawrence, Fields, and Mills are ranked too low but with enough data as the season progresses I feel they should rise a bit.

Mariota is way too low. I think Mariota, Wentz, Jimmy G and G. Smith are all in a similar cluster. With the edge obviously going to Jimmy G because he simply can win games that sometimes his team has no business winning. And sometimes Jimmy G is so subpar than many backups in the league in terms of QBR can outperform him.

 

[Jegpeg]

Interesting to look back on this now. Looking at @Scout 's comments with hindsight

Ryan has been poor they got that about right, I think it is more Foles is ranked too high, one issue with the ELO is if you arn't playing your rank doesn't move in Foles case gettign cut stopped him falling further in Watson's case it assumes he will step onto the field playing exactly like he did in 2020

Haven't seen a lot of Lock, Geno is playing much higher than they ranked Lock, having said that I douby Lock will be able to get a starting job next season.

Lawrence, Fields and Mills show it is hard ot forecast rookies, the subjective approach tends to believe a year experience will mean they will be beeter in their second year, while the ELO only looks at their actual performance, and while Lawence and especially Fields have improved Mills has declined.

Mariota maybe in the same cluster as Wentz but that is more that Wentz was ranked too high, Geno and Jimmy are far better (at the start of the season I would have put Jimmy much higher than Mariotta)

Russ Wilson could have been higher than 13? That is crazy talk now. Looking at the current rankings every team in the NFL has a QB with a higher ELO than Russ (except the Broncos)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nfl-predictions/quarterbacks/?ex_cid=endlink