Fieldgulls: How bad is the Defense?

[renofox]

I remember a satirical radio spot when Bill Clinton was running for President in 1992 on his record as Governor of Arkansas.

An actor using his Clinton voice was touting a list of "accomplishments" and said "We have moved ahead of Mississippi and are now 49th in rickets!"

No idea why, but I found it so hilarious that it has stuck with me.

I now find myself recalling that skit quite often when thinking about the Seahawks.

 

[MORGULON]

And after reading maelstroms coaching or offseason thread….

Shead and Thorpe, two former players who had abysmal careers and stats… are coaches to our secondary amusingly enough. Explains some of these issues we see popping up in the back end.

Yeah , these are exactly the guys they need teaching the players !!!

 

[bigskydoc]

I disagree.

Seattle's defense is every but as bad as the stats show. Why should there be an asterisk because they actually played good teams ? Shouldn't that be the benchmark they should run towards?
Or maybe they could hope they play other crappy teams ?

I'm not trying to be disrespectful, but the only way I could look at the statement is
"Maybe they could be better if they played worse teams " .

Of course , I'm not trying to put words in your mouth . Maybe you could explain what you're saying a little more in depth.

First, thanks for the very reasonable post with a fair question, instead of attacking the poster. Really well worded.

My thinking is that when you rank a group of teams, you should adjust for the strength of opponent.

If they all played the same opponent, it might be a fair comparison, but they don’t.

Let’s say the third worst team plays the top 3 offenses, in a 5 game stretch, and the worst and second worst play the worst offenses in the league. You would expect the 3rd worst to look even worse than it is.

My supposition is that the Hawks are probably the 5th to 8th worst defense, but they appear to be the worst because of the opponents they have faced. It isn’t that they aren’t horrible, just that they aren’t as horrible as the stats suggest.

 

[renofox]

First, thanks for the very reasonable post with a fair question, instead of attacking the poster. Really well worded.

My thinking is that when you rank a group of teams, you should adjust for the strength of opponent.

If they all played the same opponent, it might be a fair comparison, but they don’t.

Let’s say the third worst team plays the top 3 offenses, in a 5 game stretch, and the worst and second worst play the worst offenses in the league. You would expect the 3rd worst to look even worse than it is.

My supposition is that the Hawks are probably the 5th to 8th worst defense, but they appear to be the worst because of the opponents they have faced. It isn’t that they aren’t horrible, just that they aren’t as horrible as the stats suggest.

Have you ever looked at DVOA? They really focus on opponent strength for their ratings. Football Outsiders used to manage the ratings but someone else is trying it now. FO was outstanding.

FTNfantasy.com does it now. I think they overweight the opponent strength adjustments but they're in line with what you're thinking. They have Seahawks Defense as 24th.

 

[Jerhawk]

The defenders playing 2 hand touch with the Steelers runners was beyond pathetic. It was unacceptable.

It's become a season long theme. Fire all the coaches. Cut all the players. Start over.

Carroll's "culture" has turned stale, borderline toxic.

 

[xray]

Every seasoned Hawk fan , should know and accept the cycles , good or bad , this organization has been doing for decades . " Shit Happens " they say...

 

[bigskydoc]

Have you ever looked at DVOA? They really focus on opponent strength for their ratings. Football Outsiders used to manage the ratings but someone else is trying it now. FO was outstanding.

FTNfantasy.com does it now. I think they overweight the opponent strength adjustments but they're in line with what you're thinking. They have Seahawks Defense as 24th.

Yes. DVOA is great, but they only give either game by game, or season long stats. There a stretches in the season where every defense will perform worse because of their opponent.

I think DVOA is great, and it’s kind of what I was roughly applying here.

 

[MORGULON]

First, thanks for the very reasonable post with a fair question, instead of attacking the poster. Really well worded.

My thinking is that when you rank a group of teams, you should adjust for the strength of opponent.

If they all played the same opponent, it might be a fair comparison, but they don’t.

Let’s say the third worst team plays the top 3 offenses, in a 5 game stretch, and the worst and second worst play the worst offenses in the league. You would expect the 3rd worst to look even worse than it is.

My supposition is that the Hawks are probably the 5th to 8th worst defense, but they appear to be the worst because of the opponents they have faced. It isn’t that they aren’t horrible, just that they aren’t as horrible as the stats suggest.

Great answer. I understand what you're saying. Thank you

 

[Bobblehead]

I knew it was pretty bad. I had no idea it was THIS bad.

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2024/1/2...pete-carroll-clint-hurtt-nfl-analysis-opinion



These stats cover all phases of defense. EVERY SINGLE ONE is at the bottom of the league.

So the Seahawks Defense does nothing at all anywhere near league average?

Guess you haven't been watching.

 

[Dvl Dug]

Is there really any point in this team making the playoffs when they won't play a single playoff game at home?
I guess maybe each fan needs to answer that question for themself.

My feeling is that this 8 and 8 team is no longer a viable contender, and I'll re-post what renofox informed of us:

• 29th in points allowed (244)
• 30th in opponent completion percentage (67.5%)
• 30th in yards allowed per offensive play (5.92)
• T-25th in sacks (20)
• T-24th in takeaways (9)
• 29th in touchdowns allowed (28)
• 30th in rate of defensive drives ending in a score (45.8%)
• 28th in rate of punts forced (32.3%)
• 32nd in rushing first downs allowed (89, a cool 12 more than the next worst team)
• 32nd in rushing yards allowed after contact (3.1)
• 31st in third-down conversion rate allowed (48.2%)
• 32nd in average time of possession (3:09)

There ain't much fun in the team losing on the road, plus also losing about 6 or more spots in the draft order each and every round. There's at least some potential that drafting several spots higher could help turn this team around sooner rather than later. Sorry about the bummer, but...

There has to be enough good and upcoming young players on this roster to even make available free agent veterans feel like signing to this team is a pathway to a championship, or else they are just coming here for a paycheck. Right now, why would they want to sign here? Where's the upside? Where's that kind of dominance showing in any part of their game right now that says, YES, this can be a championship team again?

Clearly, this team needs a new direction, or else they will become the next 2 wins & 14 losses Carolina Panther's team. I remember that 1992 Hawk's team that went 2 and 14, and it wasn't until 2005 that they really turned it around and went 13 & 3. That was 13 long years!

 

[nanomoz]

The defenders playing 2 hand touch with the Steelers runners was beyond pathetic. It was unacceptable.

It's become a season long theme. Fire all the coaches. Cut all the players. Start over.

Carroll's "culture" has turned stale, borderline toxic.

There are some salvageable players, I think. They're just not motivated.

But I'm glad you're on board.

 

[bigskydoc]

Great answer. I understand what you're saying. Thank you

Given the opponents we would be facing in the playoffs, I, unfortunately, see no reason to think they would outperform those statistics in the playoffs.

Hard to see us making much of a dent.

 

[MORGULON]

Given the opponents we would be facing in the playoffs, I, unfortunately, see no reason to think they would outperform those statistics in the playoffs.

Hard to see us making much of a dent.

Yeah , they've given no indication that they can stop anyone .

 

[WarHawks]

It's hard to look at those stats and be hopeful and optimistic when this could conceivably go on like this for several more years. And then you get blasted if you're not all pom poms and rainbows all the time, simply because you choose not to enjoy Stockholm syndrome and take a realistic, macro view of it all. It's exhausting.

 

[HawaiiD]

I knew it was pretty bad. I had no idea it was THIS bad.

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2024/1/2...pete-carroll-clint-hurtt-nfl-analysis-opinion



These stats cover all phases of defense. EVERY SINGLE ONE is at the bottom of the league.

So the Seahawks Defense does nothing at all anywhere near league average?

You should email this Stat sheet to Jody Allen with the Subject box titled "Any Hope for a Super Bowl with these clowns? See CC".
Kindly remind her the NFL has 32 teams.And oh don't forget to CC Pete and Clint.

 

[jammerhawk]

It's been THIS bad all season.

Hurrt is clueless on how to fix it.

 

[xray]

A top ranked defense may not be necessary to win a championship ; but it sure as shit can't hurt .

 

[jammerhawk]

Defence wins Championships.

 

[Seahawker]

Is there really any point in this team making the playoffs when they won't play a single playoff game at home?
I guess maybe each fan needs to answer that question for themself.

My feeling is that this 8 and 8 team is no longer a viable contender, and I'll re-post what renofox informed of us:

• 29th in points allowed (244)
• 30th in opponent completion percentage (67.5%)
• 30th in yards allowed per offensive play (5.92)
• T-25th in sacks (20)
• T-24th in takeaways (9)
• 29th in touchdowns allowed (28)
• 30th in rate of defensive drives ending in a score (45.8%)
• 28th in rate of punts forced (32.3%)
• 32nd in rushing first downs allowed (89, a cool 12 more than the next worst team)
• 32nd in rushing yards allowed after contact (3.1)
• 31st in third-down conversion rate allowed (48.2%)
• 32nd in average time of possession (3:09)

There ain't much fun in the team losing on the road, plus also losing about 6 or more spots in the draft order each and every round. There's at least some potential that drafting several spots higher could help turn this team around sooner rather than later. Sorry about the bummer, but...

There has to be enough good and upcoming young players on this roster to even make available free agent veterans feel like signing to this team is a pathway to a championship, or else they are just coming here for a paycheck. Right now, why would they want to sign here? Where's the upside? Where's that kind of dominance showing in any part of their game right now that says, YES, this can be a championship team again?

Clearly, this team needs a new direction, or else they will become the next 2 wins & 14 losses Carolina Panther's team. I remember that 1992 Hawk's team that went 2 and 14, and it wasn't until 2005 that they really turned it around and went 13 & 3. That was 13 long years!

Nice post Dvl Dug.