EXCELLENT article on our QB and thus draft situation

[AgentDib]

The problem with talking about this topic as an abstract topic is that it isn't going to be an abstract decision come draft day. The question will be what specific players they like the most in the draft and that could be a number of guys at various positions.

Signing Geno doesn't really change that answer and shouldn't. It would be a mistake to pass on a guy they really like as a potential franchise QB because they signed Geno to a reasonable contract earlier. It would also be a mistake to pick a QB they didn't believe that much in because Geno had signed elsewhere.

Of course, that also applies to the non-QB positions. We can all agree that drafting rookie JJ Watt would be a huge boon for this team, but unfortunately JJ Watt isn't looping around from retirement back into the draft next year. Instead, we have a bunch of different prospects with their own strengths and weaknesses and uncertain outcomes. Taking the prospect you like the most is more important than taking the position you like the most.

 

[Spin Doctor]

I would be amazed if he were to even get close to 30, ain't gonna happen

That is not how QB contracts work, you're delusional if you think we're going to get him for a cut rate contract.

Geno is going to get at least 30 million per year, in fact the average starting QB contract in the NFL excluding rookie contracts is $32,036,681 in 2022. If we tag Geno with the exclusive QB tag, it'll cost us 45 million. The franchise tag is also projected to be around 32 million a year. The salary cap is going up in 2023, which means contracts scale as well. Geno can also chose to go to free agency, which will create a potential bidding war.

Now, we can franchise Geno Smith or use the exclusive tag, but the kicker is we likely won't be able to afford it as it stands. While we have one of the largest cap numbers at glance, our effective amount of money we're working with is likely going to be around 30 million. Why do you ask? The Seahawks have the second lowest number of players under contract in the NFL for 2023 now.

In addition to a potential bidding war, even QB's such as Derek Carr have received 40 million dollar extensions in 2021. Even Tannehill received 30 million per year and that was in 2020 when the cap was much lower. The QB contracts keep on going up, that's just how the modern NFL is. If Derek Carr and Tannehill got as much as they did, you better believe that Geno Smith will get at least 30 million with salary cap increases and potential free agent bidding wars over his services.

There is precedent for one hit wonder QB's getting massive contracts in the FA as well. There is no way that Geno Smith receives less than 30 million. I'm guessing it's going to be closer to the 35 - 40 million a year range.

 

[jammerhawk]

There are just 32 starting jobs for QBs in the league. Each of them won’t be open for a new guy to play for whatever team needs a QB.

Geno has played well enough to be considered at least to be a candidate for one of the open jobs. However, will money be his sole motivation for taking that job? I suspect not completely, but it undoubtedly will be a factor for him, and that could have him going to a team that may not necessarily work as well for him in terms of his surrounding offensive staff.

He could be convinced it might be smarter to consolidate his gains positionally and build upon the season which has suprised many this season. I’m not sure I’d pay him even $28 mil./yr. Despite his success this season As he does have a worrisome history to overcome. He has played well beyond his norm this season and that has been a pleasant surprise. He may have found his mojo as a starter or could still need work. This is no slag on Geno but paying him star starting QB money is not likely on the table, just yet.

He likely moves on grateful for the chance again to be ‘the guy’ elsewhere as I just don’t see him being paid $40 mil./yr. by the Hawks. It’d be nice to keep him but even if the team does pay him adding a potential heir or at least legit competition for him makes sense as his game still needs to show he has that seemingly magical ability to raise his team and he has not shown a great deal in that regard so far. I suspect the team would wish to keep both him and Lock, but will now use highly advantageous draft position to add genuine depth at the position. A lot depends on who else is out there for the 4-6 available and potentially open opportunities, and whether Lock is seen by the FO to now be ready to play more carefully and wishes a Geno like opportunity here having spent a year truly learning what his position involves. Money will for sure be a factor but it may not be the only factor.

It certainly will be interesting to watch. The team to me has had reasonably good luck finding capable players at QB, their while the sample has been small I have confidence the Schneider has an eye for the right traits at the position. Geno will need to be careful as he could make a large mistake opting just for the money.

I an see the team adding a quality player at the QB position to compete for job here on a team with a young promising OLine which may as well have a piece or two added.

In the end even if the team moves around a bit in the draft their are some talented players coming to the team at areas of present weakness.

 

[flv2]

Carr signed an extension that would pay him $25M in 2022, $33M in 2023, and considerably more after that. The Raiders are expected to release him to avoid the $33M and higher price years.

It's going to be an interesting offseason if Carr, Smith, Brady, Garoppolo, Mayfield, Jones, Ryan, Wentz, Darnold, Bridgewater, and Mariota all become FAs. (I'm assuming Jackson won't be available).

Additionally it's supposed to be a decent year for QBs in the Draft. If Carr becomes a FA in February he will set the market. Smith isn't worth franchise tag money and I don't see anyone paying him franchise tag money in this market. Equally I don't see him accepting less than the top free market offer.

The article in the opening post is backwards analysis. Whichever veteran QB the Seahawks sign for 2023, (if they do indeed sign someone), will be a top of the market overpay. QBs in the Draft will be over-drafted. The Seahawks will be reacting to circumstances rather than controlling them.

 

[CalgaryFan05]

It might be time to carry 3 QB's on the roster, maybe even Geno & Lock signed to reasonable deals and a #3 mid round Draft pick.

I'm really starting to like this. The only part I don't like as others have mentioned is Geno hitting north of 30MM/yr for the season - and with the franchise tag at above that amount.....

As much as I like the dude - I just can't justify 30+MM for the year, AND a draft pick QB and keeping lock.

 

[sutz]

Any "3rd QB" can be stashed on the practice squad. No need to waste a 53 slot for one.

 

[Donn2390]

A number of teams have been burned badly paying these crazy high prices, might get some teams to think twice before getting involved in a bidding war. Several more than just Russ has stolen money lately, Carr bein one example.
Paying 30 mill for average or less is insane.

 

[flv2]

Any "3rd QB" can be stashed on the practice squad. No need to waste a 53 slot for one.

Any young #3 QB that looks good in preseason is going to be poached off waivers or a practice squad by a team with an unhealthy #1 QB or a team with a questionable #2 QB. Multiple teams have been forced to keep 3 QBs on their 53-man roster in recent years.

 

[hawks85]

We can have Joe Montana back there and it doesn’t matter with this defense. We cannot stop the run when we have to and that used to be a bit of a signature for Seattle defense- even after the LoB. When they knew they were running and we knew they were running, it would almost always be a 3 and out.

These days it’s more like a 60 yd TD.

Well, hold on a sec. I agree the defense needs work, BUT they pretty much shut down the best offense in the league Saturday against KC. All except that last KC TD Seattle's D did a good job. If they can play D like that all the time or close to it then we should be OK.

 

[Mad Dog]

All it takes for Geno to make 35 million a year is for one GM to like him at that price. There are enough teams that QB's worse than Smith that it's reasonable to assume one guy likes Geno that much.

 

[SantaClaraHawk]

Genos skill comps are Tannehill, Carr, JimmyG. Theyre all 30m guys next year. The alternative is getting someone like Minchew or Brissett or maybe Winston or Mariota for around 20m.

 

[Ozzy]

CJ Stroud was incredible last night. I’m leaning more and more towards a QB with a top 3 pick

 

[Hawkinaz]

Genos skill comps are Tannehill, Carr, JimmyG. Theyre all 30m guys next year. The alternative is getting someone like Minchew or Brissett or maybe Winston or Mariota for around 20m.

Tannehill has been my main comp this season. Maybe give Geno a contract with a base of $20-25 million with lots of chances to make more with incentives

 

[SantaClaraHawk]

Tannehill has been my main comp this season. Maybe give Geno a contract with a base of $20-25 million with lots of chances to make more with incentives

I think 25 is plenty fair But we Could lose him at that point.

 

[morgulon1]

That is not how QB contracts work, you're delusional if you think we're going to get him for a cut rate contract.

Geno is going to get at least 30 million per year, in fact the average starting QB contract in the NFL excluding rookie contracts is $32,036,681 in 2022. If we tag Geno with the exclusive QB tag, it'll cost us 45 million. The franchise tag is also projected to be around 32 million a year. The salary cap is going up in 2023, which means contracts scale as well. Geno can also chose to go to free agency, which will create a potential bidding war.

Now, we can franchise Geno Smith or use the exclusive tag, but the kicker is we likely won't be able to afford it as it stands. While we have one of the largest cap numbers at glance, our effective amount of money we're working with is likely going to be around 30 million. Why do you ask? The Seahawks have the second lowest number of players under contract in the NFL for 2023 now.

In addition to a potential bidding war, even QB's such as Derek Carr have received 40 million dollar extensions in 2021. Even Tannehill received 30 million per year and that was in 2020 when the cap was much lower. The QB contracts keep on going up, that's just how the modern NFL is. If Derek Carr and Tannehill got as much as they did, you better believe that Geno Smith will get at least 30 million with salary cap increases and potential free agent bidding wars over his services.

There is precedent for one hit wonder QB's getting massive contracts in the FA as well. There is no way that Geno Smith receives less than 30 million. I'm guessing it's going to be closer to the 35 - 40 million a year range.

You've got the best screen name.

Based on what you're saying , Seattle might be forced to draft a QB or find another reclamation project to play next season. Three thoughts.

1. If they believed in #7 , why not sign him to a contract before he became a freaking pro bowler?

2. Do they have plans to elevate Lock to starter ? He's basically Geno PT 2

3. Ok. I only had 2 things

 

[Grahamhawker]

The only ways paying Geno anywhere near $30+ makes sense is if a team is in "win now" mode and believe he's the guy to win with, or the Hawks find him irreplaceable and are willing to float that salary and associated impact until the team is built into a serious contender.

If we're still a couple years away, I don't see how tying up that kind of money for what seems to me a likely short-term QB is anything other than a detriment. I like Geno, but he can't suddenly be irreplaceable at this point, can he?

 

[Donn2390]

The undisclosed factor in the discussion, what are Pete and John seeing in lock after grooming him for a year? They watched Geno carry a clipboard around for a couple of years and saw great potential which none of we fans were privy to, to the point of thinking they has lost their minds by going with him over all of the other possibilities.
The same silence has follows Mr. Lock around this season. Could he have developed without any of us being aware, to the point of stepping into a starting role if Geno can't be retained, with none of us having any idea of his growth? We haven't seen him in any games so we completely disregard him, relying on what we know of him from his last team and a few preseason games. Sounds kinda like what we knew of and thought about Geno when this season started.
A long shot? Possibly, probably, but by now we know to never try to second guess P&J, they have been watching him every day in practice for an entire season.
I take all of these discussions with a grain of salt and leave the decisions to the smart guys making all the money..
GO HAWKS..!
P.S. HAPPY NEW YEAR

 

[Optimus25]

Well, hold on a sec. I agree the defense needs work, BUT they pretty much shut down the best offense in the league Saturday against KC. All except that last KC TD Seattle's D did a good job. If they can play D like that all the time or close to it then we should be OK.

I just said stopping the run. I don’t think they’re awful either. But back in the day we used to AUTOMATICALLY stop a team late game when everybody knew they were running. Nowadays we can’t stop a run for less than 4 yards it seems like ever

 

[Grahamhawker]

31st ranked run d; that might be close to awful.

 

[LickMyNuts]

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1718684/salk-seahawks-shouldnt-try-to-draft-elite-qb/

THIS. THIS. THIS. THIS.

Pete's stayin 'till 2025 people. Like him or not. And I do, with the exception of getting pissed off when he acts like an un-adjustmentable dinosoaur.

Geno for Prez. Again. Let's stick with what we have. Groom it. Put pieces around him/it and fix the D for ALOT CHEAPER than flushing it down the toilet on a reverse Russ2 type incident, or squandering draft capital.

FURTHER. Has anyone noticed the entire Saints multiple QB attack situation? I have. I think it's the single most underrated thing that I've seen this season. I don't follow baseball - but I understand from the 1 person that I know that does - that the entire pitching 'strategy' has changed from when I saw it as a kid. "Closing Pitcher" is a term that I hear - and they have a range of dudes that are good at 'different' things. Just like the Saints. Don't get me wrong. F the Saints to hell. But I think it's the potential wave of the future.

The point: Let's keep Geno and Lock as is. Period. Let them fight it out for the starter role offseason. And then use them as a 1-2 punch, situationally and at least test the Saints model a bit. I think it has merit. It's tough to find ONE dude that can do everything - but switch hitting?

Okay - 2 split points here - the draft and the Saints thing - but I think it has merit.

I also don't want a 5 year nightmare/Russ situation - whether that's free agency or the draft. We have what we need.

Yeah, I want two players who want 30 million a year. No thanks.