Earl Thomas to hold out until contract resolved

[themunn]

Question do people really believe Earl Thomas as hofer?? I looked at the numbers he ain’t Charles Woodson

No.

He's statistically similar to Reggie Nelson over his first 8 years and then Reggie Nelson had 14 INTs over years 9 through 11. He won't catch Reggie Nelson, let alone get into the hall. Kenny Easley had 32 picks in 7 years and it took him 25 years to get in. If he gets in, it will be because of name more than play and it won't be for an extremely long time, but likely not at all.

Reggie Nelson made the pro bowl twice, and was 2nd team all-pro once, in his entire career.

Earl Thomas has 6 pro bowls, 3 first team all-pros and 2 2nd team all pros in 8 years.

Similar comparison? Well, Brian Dawkins after 8 seasons had 3 pro bowls, 2 first team all-pros, 1 2nd team all-pro, 21 interceptions, at age 30. So Earl Thomas is ahead of a 2018 inducted Hall of Famer in every respect at the same stage of his career.

Of course, Dawkins went on to get another 6 pro bowl selections, and 3 first team all-pro selectiosn AFTER he turned 30, missing just 14 games over the next 8 years (7 of those in his last 2 seasons at the ripe old age of 37). So now is definitely the time to ditch Thomas and watch him play at a high level for another half decade.

 

[Sox-n-Hawks]

Question do people really believe Earl Thomas as hofer?? I looked at the numbers he ain’t Charles Woodson

No.

He's statistically similar to Reggie Nelson over his first 8 years and then Reggie Nelson had 14 INTs over years 9 through 11. He won't catch Reggie Nelson, let alone get into the hall. Kenny Easley had 32 picks in 7 years and it took him 25 years to get in. If he gets in, it will be because of name more than play and it won't be for an extremely long time, but likely not at all.

Reggie Nelson made the pro bowl twice, and was 2nd team all-pro once, in his entire career.

Earl Thomas has 6 pro bowls, 3 first team all-pros and 2 2nd team all pros in 8 years.

Similar comparison? Well, Brian Dawkins after 8 seasons had 3 pro bowls, 2 first team all-pros, 1 2nd team all-pro, 21 interceptions, at age 30. So Earl Thomas is ahead of a 2018 inducted Hall of Famer in every respect at the same stage of his career.

Of course, Dawkins went on to get another 6 pro bowl selections, and 3 first team all-pro selectiosn AFTER he turned 30, missing just 14 games over the next 8 years (7 of those in his last 2 seasons at the ripe old age of 37). So now is definitely the time to ditch Thomas and watch him play at a high level for another half decade.

That would be a Charles Woodson trajectory. I wonder if Earl is durable enough for that? Part of me says yes. I mean heck, he came back from destroying his leg.

 

[Mindsink]

Sign Eric Reid now!

At the very least start talking to his agent.

 

[themunn]

Question do people really believe Earl Thomas as hofer?? I looked at the numbers he ain’t Charles Woodson

No.

He's statistically similar to Reggie Nelson over his first 8 years and then Reggie Nelson had 14 INTs over years 9 through 11. He won't catch Reggie Nelson, let alone get into the hall. Kenny Easley had 32 picks in 7 years and it took him 25 years to get in. If he gets in, it will be because of name more than play and it won't be for an extremely long time, but likely not at all.

Reggie Nelson made the pro bowl twice, and was 2nd team all-pro once, in his entire career.

Earl Thomas has 6 pro bowls, 3 first team all-pros and 2 2nd team all pros in 8 years.

Similar comparison? Well, Brian Dawkins after 8 seasons had 3 pro bowls, 2 first team all-pros, 1 2nd team all-pro, 21 interceptions, at age 30. So Earl Thomas is ahead of a 2018 inducted Hall of Famer in every respect at the same stage of his career.

Of course, Dawkins went on to get another 6 pro bowl selections, and 3 first team all-pro selectiosn AFTER he turned 30, missing just 14 games over the next 8 years (7 of those in his last 2 seasons at the ripe old age of 37). So now is definitely the time to ditch Thomas and watch him play at a high level for another half decade.

That would be a Charles Woodson trajectory. I wonder if Earl is durable enough for that? Part of me says yes. I mean heck, he came back from destroying his leg.

He's missed less games at this stage of his career than Woodson (and Dawkins, and Reed), so there's no reason to believe he won't last as long as they did.

Woodson is actually a great example. The Raiders let him go at age 29 after 8 years (and a season where he missed 10 games) and he went to Green Bay, played 6 years, missed 3 games, made 4 pro bowls, 2 first team all-pros and 2 second team all-pros, won a superbowl, and was DPOY.

I see no reason why it can't be the same for Thomas.

 

[kidhawk]

No.

He's statistically similar to Reggie Nelson over his first 8 years and then Reggie Nelson had 14 INTs over years 9 through 11. He won't catch Reggie Nelson, let alone get into the hall. Kenny Easley had 32 picks in 7 years and it took him 25 years to get in. If he gets in, it will be because of name more than play and it won't be for an extremely long time, but likely not at all.

I really don’t know what to do with this...

Reggie Nelson? Really?

Earl Thomas is a HoFer. Period. Full Stop.

The best player on a team that led the NFL in scoring defense for four-consecutive years.

Really hard to tell if he was the best player. I think he does have a few legitimate issues that voters will probably mull over. For example, every player in that secondary was outstanding. Even Bryon Maxwell, and Browner looked like top corner backs in our system. He certainly was a big part, but I do think his lack of bulk stats will hurt him when his name is eligible. I think they will acknowledge that he was a special player -- but at this rate I'm not so sure he'll be a first ballet. He may be waiting for a little while like Easley did. We also need to consider how much longer does he have elite play in him. That will also play a part in how the voters will view him come voting time. As good as Thomas is, I certainly don't think he was quite at Reed or Dawkins levels. My memory may be a bit hazy, but it took a bit for Dawkins to get in if I'm remembering correctly (correct me if Im wrong).

In lieu of that I think he has a good chance to go in as a hall of famer, he definitely has a few credentials that make his induction plausible, but again I think the lack of bulk stats and turnovers will come back to bite him. I think that the first member of our vaunted secondary to get in will actually be Sherman. He had some really memorable moments, and his out spoken nature/ball hawkish nature will make him very hard to forget.

I think you really answer your own questions about the secondary being so good. Yes, guys like Maxwell and Browner looked a lot better here than they did elsewhere, and the question of why is so often asked. From what I've seen, and I've said this many times over ET's career, it's the speed of Thomas that allows our secondary to be as good as they are. They absolutely have to have talent of their own to be able to make the plays, but the fact that ET has such speed to the ball, he allows guys to take more chances and make more plays simply because they know that he's there. ET is one of, if not the best free safety of our time.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I see no reason why it can't be the same for Thomas.

It certainly can. Like Woodson, Earl takes tremendous care of himself and most importantly still has a passion for playing.

My only hesitation with Earl is what makes him great is also his worst enemy............his reckless abandon. Great if your 24, but not so great when you're 30 trying to recover from another serious injury because you ran 40 yards and dove headfirst into the pile at full speed.

 

[kf3339]

ET has made himself the distraction that PC has made a point of eliminating from this years team. That alone will make his departure a guarantee by training camp or the first regular season game. I only hope they send him to an AFC team that needs a FS and plenty of cap space to pay him, or franchise him next year.

A third or conditional 2nd makes sense at this point.

 

[jammerhawk]

Love the player, hate the holdout.

Am starting to agree with the thinking above, it's time to move him out.

 

[Coug_Hawk08]

Trading now would be for absolute peanuts. We have the players and cap space to withstand a holdout. Just telling us up front actually allows the team to better prepare even. So why sell impossibly low? His value has likely only declined since the draft. Still not sure who would even want to pony up a pick and pay Eric berry money - when the safety market is super depressed, the value isn’t there.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Trading now would be for absolute peanuts. We have the players and cap space to withstand a holdout. Just telling us up front actually allows the team to better prepare even. So why sell impossibly low? His value has likely only declined since the draft. Still not sure who would even want to pony up a pick and pay Eric berry money - when the safety market is super depressed, the value isn’t there.

Right, and if Earl is betting on himself like he probably is, he might even make more being franchised with a fully guaranteed one year deal for a year or two than he would being lowballed here or elsewhere because there's not a big market for safeties.

I understand he wants the security of a new deal, but I'd be greatly disappointed in our FO if they caved yet again on a new deal that will bite us in the ass. Bennett, Kam, Avril, Sherman.............enough already.

 

[hawknation2018]

Trading Earl should be off the table. No way we get value for him under the circumstances.

Only three scenarios are realistic:
1. Seahawks capitulate to the threat and agree to Earl’s terms during his holdout. This likelineness of this outcome depends on how far apart they are right now. If they’re close, then maybe. But I find this to be unlikely. They do not want to set the precedent that would encourage future players to harm the team in the pursuit of more financial gain.
OR
2. Seahawks refuse to come to terms during his holdout. And Earl ends his holdout. I find this to be the most likely outcome. Earl called Kam Chacellor’s decision to miss games ‘bad energy.’ He saw the team lose games during that time, and he saw Kam return to the team without a contract. Game theory suggests Earl will return before Week 1 without a contract.
OR
3. Seahawks can’t get a deal done, and Earl continues his holdout. If he doesn’t return by the midpoint of the season, then his contract fails to toll, and he would remain under team control in 2019. If Earl did return in time, then the Seahawks would simply franchise him to retain his value, and the game continues. Earl gets NOTHING if he decides not to show up for work.

 

[jammerhawk]

Actually worse than nothing because he will also get fined for missing mandatory OTAs, TC, and games. His negotiating position isn't that strong.

 

[hawknation2018]

What exactly does Earl gain from a holdout? People speculated during Kam Chancellor’s holdout that he was doing it because he needed time to heal up his knees. Earl appears to be healthy, so how does this benefit him?

- He faces the prospect of fines and withheld salary. He is due to make $8.5 million. That’s not an insignificant sum. The franchise tag next year would pay him $12+ million.

- He risks the team’s self-preserving response of cutting off negotiations in order to avoid the precedent that would encourage future players to hurt the team in pursuit of more money. Most people don’t respond well to threats. He’s put the team in a difficult position, and may have decreased the likelihood of a substantial contract extension in the near future.

- He faces fan backlash and damage to his reputation. Enough to keep him out of the Hall of Fame? I hope not. It depends on how ugly he makes the situation. People are already upset about his overture to a rival coach during the season.

Unfortunately, the massive contract Kam Chancellor ultimately signed may have emboldened Earl to take these risks.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

What exactly does Earl gain from a holdout? People speculated during Kam Chancellor’s holdout that he was doing it because he needed time to heal up his knees. Earl appears to be healthy, so how does this benefit him?

He gains nothing.

But it's what big name players do who are crying for a new contract. Aaron Donald, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, etc.........all skipping OTA's.

We'll see how serious Earl is when he's faced with missing game checks.

 

[hawknation2018]

Yeah, missing OTAs isn’t a true holdout. I think only three players have truly held out of games under the current CBA. Kam Chancellor was the first, and that was rumored to be affected by Kam’s recovery from an injury. Joey Bosa was another because he refused to agree to the Chargers’ rookie offset contract. The third was Duane Brown, and that was less about money than Brown’s moral holdout against what he viewed as a racist owner of the Houston Texans. Brown lost a lot of money with that decision, but he never complained about his contract after he was traded to the Seahawks.

If Earl makes good on his threat, it would be one of the more unusual holdouts in NFL history. And it would signal that perhaps Earl isn’t committed to playing football in the long term. And why would any franchise commit millions in guaranteed money to a player who isn’t committed in the long term. That’s the big way this would backfire against Earl if he misses training camp.

One more thought from me. Richard Sherman and Kam Chacellor are more widely considered to be future Hall of Famers, even though Earl Thomas may have been the most talented member of the Legion of Boom. Chancellor is regarded as the hardest hitting player of his generation. Meanwhile, Sherman created the biggest brand for a defensive player since Troy Polamalu. He is one of the most well known faces in the NFL, which is rare for a defensive player in today’s game.

Earl still isn’t that well known. He is a quiet leader. Understanding his game requires more attention to detail than the average fan possesses. Some of his best plays aren’t even captured on TV. To appreciate them, you have to look at the All-22 coaches film of the whole field to understand how he shuts down a portion of the field on the aggregate. He probably had the best instincts of his generation. Plenty of Seahawks fans know Earl is great, because we watch him play week after week, but I’m not sure the average person does outside of Seattle and outside of the Seahawks fan base. Partly that is because I don’t think Earl has done a good job promoting his image and managing his career in the way Sherman and Chancellor did.

In my view, Earl was better than either Sherman or Chancellor in their primes. And Earl is still better. As the last remaining member of the L.O.B., this is Earl’s opportunity to cement his legancy as one of the greatest ever. Will he seize this opportunity by the balls or simply squander it?

 

[adeltaY]

Chancellor has no shot at the hall. He has no first team all pros. Sherm and Earl are the only ones who do (besides Bobby), so they have the best shot out of the LoB guys.

 

[hawknation2018]

Chancellor has no shot at the hall. He has no first team all pros. Sherm and Earl are the only ones who do (besides Bobby), so they have the best shot out of the LoB guys.

Because the voters never wanted both First Team safeties to be Seahawks.

Ask any opponent, though, and they would say that Kam Chancellor was the most feared player in the game.

He somehow accomplished that distinction, with clean hits, despite playing in an era of increasing penalization of hard hits.

 

[hawknation2018]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1006627871761170432[/tweet]

 

[adeltaY]

Chancellor has no shot at the hall. He has no first team all pros. Sherm and Earl are the only ones who do (besides Bobby), so they have the best shot out of the LoB guys.

Because the voters never wanted both First Team safeties to be Seahawks.

Ask any opponent, though, and they would say that Kam Chancellor was the most feared player in the game.

He somehow accomplished that distinction, with clean hits, despite playing in an era of increasing penalization of hard hits.

Yes, but that won't matter when it comes to HoF voting. It's tough for safeties anyway, idk if Earl will make it. Kam won't. Sherm has the best shot if he can get at least three more pro bowl seasons.

 

[hawknation2018]

Chancellor has no shot at the hall. He has no first team all pros. Sherm and Earl are the only ones who do (besides Bobby), so they have the best shot out of the LoB guys.

Because the voters never wanted both First Team safeties to be Seahawks.

Ask any opponent, though, and they would say that Kam Chancellor was the most feared player in the game.

He somehow accomplished that distinction, with clean hits, despite playing in an era of increasing penalization of hard hits.

Yes, but that won't matter when it comes to HoF voting. It's tough for safeties anyway, idk if Earl will make it. Kam won't. Sherm has the best shot if he can get at least three more pro bowl seasons.

It would an amazing testament to the LOB defense if all three could make it. And it would be pretty cool if they all made it at the same time, meaning Kam would not make the first few ballots.