Contracts: 2013 through 2016

[C-Dub]

Just trying to get a idea of where our money goes and will be going to figure out who goes and who stays. I've been seeing a lot of stuff on WT3 and BB contracts, so it got me thinking big picture. Trying not to factor in restructures or kickers or get too caught up with estimated yearly fluctuations in new contracts. All these numbers were taken off Spotrac.

For 2013 we have about $3.7 million in cap space to roll over, and there's about $17 million in expiring contracts.

This seems to be the last year where we'll have some medium contracts like Breno and McQ. We won't have the luxury.

2013 - Current State
Big Money:
1. Percy Harvin ($10.7 mil/yr)
2. Russell Okung ($8.0 mil/yr)
3. Sydney Rice (8.2 mil/yr)
4. Red Bryant ($7.0 mil/yr)
5. Zach Miller ($6.8 mil/yr)
6. Marshawn Lynch ($7.5 mil/yr)
7. Cam Chancellor ($7.0 mil/yr)
8. Max Unger ($6.5 mil/yr)
9. Brandon Mebane ($5.0 mil/yr)
10. Chris Clemons ($7.2 mil/yr)

Medium Money:
11. Earl Thomas
12. Cliff Avril
13. Bruce Irvin
14. James Carpenter
15. Breno Giacomini
16. Paul McQuistan
17. Michael Bennett
18. Heath Farwell
19. Bobby Wagner
20. Golden Tate

Looking to 2014, we'll have almost all of the cap space already spent and we also lost 4 starters plus a few key contributors.

I think most of us can assume Sydney is gone which will save $7.3 million for the year and $10.2 million the following year. But that leaves us with just Percy and Chop Chop as starter level talents.

Tate and Baldwin....two pretty good WRs that will demand some money and will be highly sought after. Tate probably around $7-8 mil/yr and Baldwin around $4-6 mil/yr. I do not think we can keep both and have around $23 million in WRs. I'll go with Tate for this, but that leaves around $2-3 million in cap space.

Farwell is also a luxury at this point, so that can save $1.6 million to bring us up to $3.6-4.6 million.

The next big question is what do we do with Michael Bennett? I say a 4 year deal around $7.5 mil/yr. He's probably the 2nd best player on the defense and loves it here, but has some injury concerns that kept him from getting a big payday last year. That drops us down to about -$2.9 million in cap space.

Next up is WT3 and BB. WOW!!!! Here's where people are going to disagree. I don't see BB commanding a ton of money and I see his loyalty to this team being very strong. I also see some loyalty from WT3 since we've stuck with him through his injuries. With that said, I feel like BB might command around $2 mil/yr for 2 year deal and WT3 commanding around a $4-6 mil/yr for 3 or 4 year depending on how well he does this year. But how do we afford them??? I'll leave them off to be conservative.

There just isn't a ton of money for 2014 unless we cut or restructure more than the obvious guys.

2014 - Future State
Big Money:
1. Percy Harvin ($10.7 mil/yr)
2. Russell Okung ($8.0 mil/yr)
3. Red Bryant ($7.0 mil/yr)
4. Zach Miller ($6.8 mil/yr)
5. Marshawn Lynch ($7.5 mil/yr)
6. Cam Chancellor ($7.0 mil/yr)
7. Golden Tate (~$7.5 mil/yr)
8. Max Unger ($6.5 mil/yr)
9. Michael Bennett (~$7.5 mil/yr)
10. Brandon Mebane ($5.0 mil/yr)
11. Chris Clemons ($7.2 mil/yr)

Medium Money:
12. Cliff Avril
13. Bruce Irvin
14. James Carpenter
15. Bobby Wagner
16. Christine Michael
17. #2 pick
18. Russell Wilson
19. Jordan Hill

Time to start spending some big money with only $100 million on the books and around $29 million to spend.

Earl at around $10 mil/yr and Richard at around $13 mil/yr.

With CC and Avril contracts expiring, both pass rushers will be getting up there (34 and 29). Maybe short deal for Avril at $8 mil/yr for a few years.

There's also KJ, Malcolm Smith, and Carpenter. I feel all three can be replaced in the draft. If possible, KJ would be top to resign.

2015 - Future State
Big Money:
1. Percy Harvin ($10.7 mil/yr)
2. Richard Sherman ($13 mil/yr)
3. Russell Okung ($8.0 mil/yr)
4. Earl Thomas (~$10.0 mil/yr)
5. Red Bryant ($7.0 mil/yr)
6. Zach Miller ($6.8 mil/yr)
7. Marshawn Lynch ($7.5 mil/yr)
8. Cam Chancellor ($7.0 mil/yr)
9. Golden Tate (~$7.0 mil/yr)
10. Max Unger ($6.5 mil/yr)
11. Michael Bennett ($7.5 mil/yr)
12. Brandon Mebane ($5.0 mil/yr)

Medium Money:
12. Cliff Avril
13. Bruce Irvin
14. #1 pick (2015)
15. #2 pick (2015)
16. Bobby Wagner
17. Christine Michael
18. #2 pick (2014)
19. #3 pick (2015)
20. Russell Wilson

We'll have Zach Miller, Russell Okung, Marshawn, Mebane coming off the book in 2016, but will have Wilson, Bruce, and Wagner coming off rookie contracts. So more big money spending in 2016.....probably around $35 million/yr to spend there assuming Bruce and Wagner continue to improve and impress. Okung could be resigned unless he returns to "injury prone," so maybe another $8 million/yr towards him. Miller, Mebane, and....I'm crying for saying this...Lynch will be gone.

2016 - Future State
Big Money:
1. Russell Wilson ($16 mil/yr)
2. Percy Harvin ($10.7 mil/yr)
3. Richard Sherman ($13 mil/yr)
4. Russell Okung ($8.0 mil/yr)
5. Earl Thomas (~$10.0 mil/yr)
6. Bobby Wagner (~$10 mil/yr)
6. Red Bryant ($7.0 mil/yr)
7. Bruce Irvin (~$8.0 mil/yr)
8. Cam Chancellor ($7.0 mil/yr)
9. Golden Tate (~$7.0 mil/yr)
10. Max Unger ($6.5 mil/yr)
11. Michael Bennett ($7.5 mil/yr)

Medium Money:
12. Cliff Avril
13. #1 pick (2016)
14. #1 pick (2015)
15. #2 pick (2016)
16. #2 pick (2015)
17. Christine Michael
18. #2 pick (2014)
19. #3 pick (2016)
20. #3 pick (2015)

By 2016, we should see our top players making the majority of the money, while the rest are on rookie contracts and near veteran minimums.

I'm really worried about 2014. I feel we'll be up against the cap.

 

[dontbelikethat]

Seeing those guys gone is tough. I'm sure PC&JS have a plan, and I hope it'll be for the best. Until then, we still goin' to the superbowl.

 

[C-Dub]

Seeing those guys gone is tough. I'm sure PC&JS have a plan, and I hope it'll be for the best. Until then, we still goin' to the superbowl.

Yeah, I hear you. I'm really curious about the 2014 plan. We could lose some fan favorites.

 

[Sac]

Why does everyone forget that the salary cap is going to BALLOON once the new TV deal money kicks in. There will be more than what you're showing here. Probably by a lot.

 

[C-Dub]

Why does everyone forget that the salary cap is going to BALLOON once the new TV deal money kicks in. There will be more than what you're showing here. Probably by a lot.

I disagree.

I've read quite a few reports where they expect little to no increase in cap space, so who really knows? And if it does balloon, it's expected to level off shortly after.

Maybe it'll be an $8 million dollar increase. If it is, we could probably resign either Baldwin or Thurmond.

 

[2_0_6]

in 2016 there is no way Red Bryant will be getting $7m per, and I would be even more surprised if Zach Miller makes his 6.8m in 2015.

Plenty of guys have come and gone before, I have total faith that they will stick to their plan.

 

[cacksman]

Baldwin will be a RFA which means we can sign him back next year for a low salary.

 

[QuahHawk]

Rice is about a 90% gonner, I could see Red and Clemons both gone next year so we can re-up Bennet on a long term deal, as well as Z. Miller restructuring to save us a few mil over the next 2 years. I think Tate will get less than what you are projecting, he has a unique skill set and has been an average #2 WR in the league, Hartline and Amendola both got 5y $30-31mil deals I think we can get Tate at that price but back load it so it really only a 3-4 year deal

 

[DJrmb]

This is a pretty good quick look into things but it is really just that. It is obvious that Pete and John spent a little extra this last off-season to really go after a championship even at the expense of some future cap space. I also believe 2014 is going to be a tough year and some tough decisions will have to be made. However there are some things that aren't factored in above that could make it not as bleak as it looks at first glance.

for one, Doug Baldwin is a RFA next year and even if we give him a max 1st round tender he'll only make a manageable 2.8m (however most likely we'll put a 2nd round tender on him and pay him 2M).

Also there are a few contracts that are setup to clearly be restructured or let go in 2014, one of which being Red Bryant. We can save well over half of his 8.5M cap hit by cutting him, that fact plus the emergence of Bennett gives us pretty good leverage to restructure his deal making it more cap friendly. Clemons is another one in a similar situation who is primed to be restructured or let go in 2014.

We could save a bit of money by extending Earl Thomas too. I know that sounds weird, save money by giving one of your top players his big payday but Earls cap hit is over 5M and could easily be brought down to 2.5M or 3M by giving him a back loaded contract saving us a bit more money to sneak under the cap.

All of that plus the inevitable rise in the Salary cap could give us just enough to only have to make 1 or 2 tough cuts/no signs on those fan favorites. I don't think the Cap will "Balloon" like some people do but I think a 3-5M increase is pretty safe to assume. No way do the players see the huge numbers of the new TV deal and not get some of that put into their salaries...

 

[hawksfanohio]

I think it's crazy how our two biggest contracts for next year have played a total of two games combined and the third is a situational player.

 

[ImTheScientist]

3. Sydney Rice (8.2 mil/yr)
4. Red Bryant ($7.0 mil/yr)
5. Zach Miller ($6.8 mil/yr)
6. Marshawn Lynch ($7.5 mil/yr)

Next year at least one will not be on the team at that price and in 2 years all will be gone imo.

 

[Exittium]

I guess 2014 will really show who likes money more and who likes the Team more.. I mean after all you keep hearing it from players how much they love the city, team/organization, and fans. Therefore 2014 will be the time to either show it by restructure/pay cut/extensions or leaving for more money.

 

[VegasSeahawkFan]

I personally believe that Schneider showed some of his cards with his draft picks this last year:

They would like to see Jesse Williams be Red's replacement
Tharold Simon or Maxwell could be Browner's replacement (Shead even plays into a possible roster spot considering his practice squad bonus)

Sherman, Thomas and Tate I'm sure will be back. They are three of the most dynamic players in the league right now.

Miller can be replaced with a tight end in the draft (starter would probably have to be first or second round)

Carpenter and Mcq are vulnerable because of what Bowie and Bailey have shown.....shoot I might even consider trading Unger based on Jean Pierre has shown. Sacrifices will have to be made to make room for Sherm, Thomas and Tate.

 

[NorCalSeahawk]

With the way the team has drafted in the past 2-3 years I'm not all that worried. They will hit and miss on some guys, but they seem to hit more often than not. With that said, I see guys like Rice, Miller, Carp, Breno, Red, Lynch, Clem, Avril, McDaniel, Browner and Baldwin among others either taking less money, getting cut or just moving on for better monetary reasons (I can't fault a guy for thinking about his family and his future. The NFL is a business, no different than any other job, people will always come and go. Some are just more beloved than others).

Also, guys like Thomas, Sherm, Tate, Russell, Bennett, Okung, and maybe a couple others will all get fair, maybe even a little above market offers when their contracts come up. The team would be dumb to lowball any of them (especially Russell, Thomas and Sherm), because of their age (very young), production and leadership they bring to the next group of young guys coming up.

The team will be fine, it's just a matter of paying the RIGHT guys and drafting the best man possible in the draft. P&J have done pretty good so far.

 

[Exittium]

I personally believe that Schneider showed some of his cards with his draft picks this last year:

They would like to see Jesse Williams be Red's replacement
Tharold Simon or Maxwell could be Browner's replacement (Shead even plays into a possible roster spot considering his practice squad bonus)

Sherman, Thomas and Tate I'm sure will be back. They are three of the most dynamic players in the league right now.

Miller can be replaced with a tight end in the draft (starter would probably have to be first or second round)

Carpenter and Mcq are vulnerable because of what Bowie and Bailey have shown.....shoot I might even consider trading Unger based on Jean Pierre has shown. Sacrifices will have to be made to make room for Sherm, Thomas and Tate.

I think your pretty close to being spot on, or at least I hope this is what plays out...

 

[Popeyejones]

Why does everyone forget that the salary cap is going to BALLOON once the new TV deal money kicks in. There will be more than what you're showing here. Probably by a lot.

I disagree.

I've read quite a few reports where they expect little to no increase in cap space, so who really knows?

Yep.

A couple things on this:

*The NFL re-upped its TV contract in 2011 and it goes through 2022. IIRC the payout from those contract are locked in to increase at about 5-7% annually.

*The salary cap has essentially been flat for the past five seasons.

*Because of the CBA, the salary cap is estimated to remain essentially flat through at least the next three or four seasons.

*Right now, because of the CBA, the salary cap is artificially inflated to have remained flat. The players agreed to take 7 or 8 million out of the pension fund to keep the cap from dipping down to 2008 levels. The salary cap is supposed to stay flat because it will take three or four years of increased revenue for the salary cap at its current level to not have to be artificially inflated.

*After 2017 or so, the salary cap is expected to go up by around 2-4 million per year. Between 1994 and 2004 the salary cap more than doubled (it increased by around 135%). That's never, ever going to happen again. In the first 7 years it increased by 85%. In the next 7 years it increased by 75%. In what will be the last 7 years it will have increased by 12.8%, and that's with it being artificially inflated.

 

[Spleenhawk2.0]

I do not believe that the Seahawks will have to make any decision regarding Bryant or Mebane this offseason. Certainly they could be deemed replaceable during next Summers training camp as the cut down to 53, but I think there are few "no brainer" moves that will allow the team to sign there own free agents (at least the ones they want at the price they are willing to pay). And BTW, Cliff Avril is not medium money. He was signed to a two year contract that was heavily loaded to next year.

It seems that the Seahawks will have about (very rough estimate) $8million in cap room going into next season, making zero roster moves - pre-draft. LINK (The Sportrac numbers include a number of figures that are not calculated into final salary cap - requires some work to come up with a more realistic number, which is still very grey)

A couple of moves that I would suggest.

The obvious:
-Cut Sidney Rice - $9.7 Million with a $2.4 Million dead money cap hit

The choice:
-Chris Clemons - $9.67 Million cap figure, with zero dead money
-Chris Avril - $9.25 Million cap figure, with $2.25 million dead money if cut

I do not believe that the choice will be between Mebane and Bryant this year - I believe that choice will be in 2015. Avril has played well on passing downs, but seems to be limited enough, and replaceable that he seems a likely candidate to be cut during the offseason. Clemons is not getting any younger, but team seems to love his leadership and locker room presence. The fact that he will be turning 33, and offers no dead money if cut def requires strong consideration. But Clemons is a 3-down player, where Avril seems relegated to passing downs exclusively.

Other options:
-James Carpenter - $2.45 Million cap hit, zero dead money - Carpenter started the year as a backup, if deemed not good enough to start, $2.45 Million seems like a lot to pay a backup. The choice may be between resigning McQuistan and keeping Carpenter
-Heath Farwell - $1.67 Million, $250k cap hit - If enough cap space is cleared, keeping Farwell seems like a wise investment both on the field and in the locker room

Now that Thurmond will be starting for a few games - and maybe more - he has def priced himself out of Seahawk consideration. Last year Keenan Lewis and Derek Cox signed multi-year deals worth $5 mill. plus, and Thurmond is a much better player than either. My guess is that Thurmond will sign a contract at about $6 mill avg - likely above what Seattle is willing to pay, unless they deem him a long term solution as a replacement for Browner.

Browner is now much more affordable because of the injury - assuming he misses the remainder of the season. I could seem him resigning with the Seahawks for a 2 year, $6 or $7 million contract.

I see Bennett and Tate as the clear high priority resigning. With the moves outlined above, there should be plenty of space to resign these two, plus a possible contract extension or two.

 

[BadgerVid]

2015 - Future State
Big Money:
1. Percy Harvin ($10.7 mil/yr)
2. Richard Sherman ($13 mil/yr)
3. Russell Okung ($8.0 mil/yr)
4. Earl Thomas (~$10.0 mil/yr)
5. Red Bryant ($7.0 mil/yr)
6. Zach Miller ($6.8 mil/yr)
7. Marshawn Lynch ($7.5 mil/yr)
8. Cam Chancellor ($7.0 mil/yr)
9. Golden Tate (~$7.0 mil/yr)
10. Max Unger ($6.5 mil/yr)
11. Michael Bennett ($7.5 mil/yr)
12. Brandon Mebane ($5.0 mil/yr)

Medium Money:
12. Cliff Avril
13. Bruce Irvin
14. #1 pick (2015)
15. #2 pick (2015)
16. Bobby Wagner
17. Christine Michael
18. #2 pick (2014)
19. #3 pick (2015)
20. Russell Wilson

We'll have Zach Miller, Russell Okung, Marshawn, Mebane coming off the book in 2016, but will have Wilson, Bruce, and Wagner coming off rookie contracts...

I seriously hope they don't wait until after '15 to resign Wilson...he is eligible to be restructured from his spot as the lowest paid starting QB in the league after the '14 season and I cannot imagine the 'Hawks would force him to stay at that level and then negotiate a new deal when he will have the option of free agency. I know Russell would like to stay in Seattle, but being forced to play a year for somewhere south of a million when he could be making somewhere north of 15 Million does not seem either fair or conducive to maintaining that loyalty...

JMO/YMMV

 

[kidhawk]

I know it's a pet peeve issue of mine, but could you please, for the love of all that is right in the world, spell it KAM and not CAM? He's not a car part, he's a strong safety. Thank you, rant over

 

[Hawks46]

I think we've seen the last of Rice unless he takes a big paycut.

I see us restructuring Bryant. He's making too much money and we can still get that production.

Earl Thomas won't be a much larger cap hit. He was signed before the new CBA and got a pretty big contract. Even the top safeties in the league aren't making much more than he is. I also see the LoB taking some discounts to stay together.

I see next year as the choice of what to do with Tate and Bennett. Those are the two we need to sign. We haven't had the best of luck drafting WRs. We got lucky with Baldwin and Tate took a while to develop and he was a 2nd rounder.

I see us signing our young OLmen to good value contracts. Guys like Bowie and Bailey might end up starting next year or the year after and we can get value from that. I also see us drafting OLmen which makes them cheaper. If Breno wants too much, he'll not be resigned. Okung should get a fair contract as he's been injury prone but still very good.

Sherman worries me, as it's unpredictable what he does. On one hand, he's shown to be a great team guy, hasn't bitched about his contract at all, and just continues to put the team first and improve. On the other hand, he's shown an insatiable appetite for attention and recognition as the best CB in the league. Will he want to be paid that way ?

I don't see Wilson signing a 20 million dollar/year deal, even if he does win the SB. 14-16 would be a fair market for him, but even 16mil/year cripples us a bit. I'm hoping he doesn't hold us to the fire, as other QBs who have gotten big paydays have crippled their team.

I hope Thurmond takes a hometown discount for us. We've paid him a lot to be injured for 4 years, maybe here's where he pays it back. If not, he'll probably walk. Maxwell and Lane can fill in, and Simon is still a wildcard. Shead oozes potential and I can see us drafting another guy if Thurmond or Browner or both walk.

Browner will probably get a value deal. He seems loyal to us and he is still starting caliber CB, but he had a down year and now is injured. With his age I'm unsure how much money other teams will be offereing him, but that little bump of money we gave him this year should buy some loyalty.