Comparative analysis of teams with easy strength of schedule

[carolinablue]

Just don't think the Rams are all that good. And the also the Redskins beat the Rams 24-10 so I wouldn't necessarily say they are tougher.

Just don't think the Panthers are all that good. They lost to the Falcons. And also the 7-9 Saints beat the Falcons. Twice. And 6-10 Tampa Bay beat the Falcons too. Twice. So I wouldn't necessarily say they are tougher.

See how it sounds when you cherry pick stats?

I didn't cherry pick stats. Dude said Rams were tougher than the Redskins. Rams lost to the Redskins. No cherries there, only a loss for the Rams.

I hope that makes you happy, because after Sunday you're gonna be wondering how the Panthers lost to a team that lost to the Rams...twice.

Or you could be wondering how a team that lost to the Falcons beat you twice.

 

[Polaris]

Or you could be wondering how a team that lost to the Falcons beat you twice.

In the first place I don't think Seattle is going to lose. Even if that did happen, I'd chalk it up to a close game on the road against a quality opponent and nothing more.

You see, we're not caught up with the who beat whom nonsense (and it is nonsense). I also point out that rematches are usually very different than the first time match and that's especially true in the playoffs. We know this and were brutally reminded of it (along with still thawing out) this last Sunday, but it cuts against the Carolina Panthers as well.

What is it with this Carolina Panther aversion to advanced stats? Frankly IMHO it's getting annoying...almost to the 49Ner circa 2012 level of annoying where after more than a decade of being bottom-dwellers, the Niners discovered they were good...and NEVER SHUT UP ABOUT IT.

 

[rideaducati]

Or you could be wondering how a team that lost to the Falcons beat you twice.

In the first place I don't think Seattle is going to lose. Even if that did happen, I'd chalk it up to a close game on the road against a quality opponent and nothing more.

You see, we're not caught up with the who beat whom nonsense (and it is nonsense). I also point out that rematches are usually very different than the first time match and that's especially true in the playoffs. We know this and were brutally reminded of it (along with still thawing out) this last Sunday, but it cuts against the Carolina Panthers as well.

What is it with this Carolina Panther aversion to advanced stats? Frankly IMHO it's getting annoying...almost to the 49Ner circa 2012 level of annoying where after more than a decade of being bottom-dwellers, the Niners discovered they were good...and NEVER SHUT UP ABOUT IT.

By this time next week, we'll he back to having more niner fans than panther fans here.

 

[SeaWolv]

Just don't think the Rams are all that good. And the also the Redskins beat the Rams 24-10 so I wouldn't necessarily say they are tougher.

Dude the Panthers spank the Falcons week 14 then lose to them in week 16. St. Louis is a division rival that always plays Seattle tough. Just like the Falcons do with the Panthers. Look at last year. Hawks finish 12-4 which includes a loss to the Rams in St. Louis. I would also point out that the Rams have a DVOA rank this year of #16 whereas the Falcons are #26.

 

[SeaWolv]

Just don't think the Rams are all that good. And the also the Redskins beat the Rams 24-10 so I wouldn't necessarily say they are tougher.

Just don't think the Panthers are all that good. They lost to the Falcons. And also the 7-9 Saints beat the Falcons. Twice. And 6-10 Tampa Bay beat the Falcons too. Twice. So I wouldn't necessarily say they are tougher.

See how it sounds when you cherry pick stats?

I didn't cherry pick stats. Dude said Rams were tougher than the Redskins. Rams lost to the Redskins. No cherries there, only a loss for the Rams.

Redskins ranked #15 Rams ranked #16. They're pretty much neck and neck.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-r ... oa-ratings

 

[panthers4life]

If you don't like DVOA then give a reasonable explanation of why it is flawed other than you just don't like it. Or provide a different source that backs up your reasons like has been done here with DVOA.

Well the only thing any Seahawk fan here is pointing to is DVOA. Which we've well established is an efficiency rating and nothing more. I'm really happy for your team efficiency. Too bad efficiency doesn't predict who will win.

Why is Carolina better?
We have the league MVP, you don't.
We have 10 probowlers, you have 7.
We have 8 all pros, you have 3.
We won 15 games, you won 10.
We have the #1 offense in the league.
We beat you head to head in your house.
We're playing at home this time.

Next, you start talking from both sides of your mouth again. Criticizing schedule, even though you lost to the Rams twice, us, and really the Vikings as well. You'll claim Russel was the MVP not Cam, even though Cam IS the MVP. You'll say our head to head win doesn't matter, while also claiming your pedigree makes all the difference. Then you'll talk a lot about your precious DVOA again because it's really the only thing you can point to that makes any argument for Seattle to win. Those notes above sir are the reason DVOA is flawed. DVOA said we should win 11 games, it was wrong. DVOA said you should win 12-13 games, it was wrong. DVOA says you should win this weekend and it will be wrong again.

It's all really pointless because you'll devalue anything that indicates Carolina will win. You blindly think you have a better team even though the ProBowl, All-Pro, head to head, and overall record disagree with you. You keep thinking your peaking at the right time, even though your team was awful last week, but hey, it was cold, that's the excuse there. The Vikings played in the same weather and played well enough to win that game. Your team is flawed, at times this season this board has been realistic about that, but now the blinders are on. Carolina will bring you back to earth this Sunday, I'll be there in person to watch it.

I'll be back to eat crow and congratulate you if I'm wrong.

 

[Polaris]

No, DVOA is not the ONLY thing Seattle fans are pointing at, and while efficiency stats don't predict which team will win, they DO say which team is playing better. I read the above post and I am hearing a lot of insecurity and a lot of false bravado. The fact is until that ONE game in October (and only because of a late mistake by a player that isn't on the team any more), Seattle has OWNED Carolina, and I don't expect it to be any different this Sunday, especially given that Seattle has gotten stronger and Carolina really hasn't (or at least not nearly as much) especially in the secondary which Wilson will exploit.

As for strength of schedule, there is no 'talking out of both sides of mouth' going on. This is something that can and has been measured. Seattle has faced a fairly hard schedule overall. The Panthers have had the easiest slate in the league. Just the facts.

Edit: As for last week, the Vikings looked awful in the cold too. Don't take my word, look at the box score. The thing about cold is that extreme cold is an equalizer and negates otherwise superior talent. Looking at the game play by play, I estimate the cold cost Seattle at least 14 if not 17 points and *may* have cost Minny 3 points. Now you are getting the margin that people expected. You have no idea how extreme cold affects a game unless you've experienced it so stuff it.

[Edit: Sorry about the original language. I'll watch it in the future]

 

[panthers4life]

No, DVOA is not the ONLY thing Seattle fans are pointing at, and while efficiency stats don't predict which team will win, they DO say which team is playing better. I read the above post and I am hearing a lot of insecurity and a lot of false bravado. The fact is until that ONE game in October (and only because of a late mistake by a player that isn't on the team any more), Seattle has OWNED Carolina, and I don't expect it to be any different this Sunday, especially given that Seattle has gotten stronger and Carolina really hasn't (or at least not nearly as much) especially in the secondary which Wilson will exploit.

As for strength of schedule, there is no 'talking out of both sides of mouth' going on. This is something that can and has been measured. Seattle has faced a fairly hard schedule overall. The Panthers have had the easiest slate in the league. Just the facts.

Edit: As for last week, the Vikings looked awful in the cold too. Don't take my word, look at the box score. The thing about cold is that extreme cold is an equalizer and negates otherwise superior talent. Looking at the game play by play, I estimate the cold cost Seattle at least 14 if not 17 points and *may* have cost Minny 3 points. Now you are getting the margin that people expected. You have no idea how extreme cold affects a game unless you've experienced it so STFU.

Oh someone is getting angry now. Can't take someone pointing out that your team is indeed inferior in many ways? Keep making excuses for Seattle. I'm excited to see what excuses are made after Sunday. Thank you as well, for going to that well about owning Carolina, that is indeed talking from both sides of your mouth. If those wins matter then it certainly matters that we beat you in the Clink THIS season.

 

[Polaris]

Why is Carolina better?

Let's look at how meaningful these really are point by point:

We have the league MVP, you don't.

By that standard Peyton Manning should have 5 superbowl rings. Hint: It doesn't matter one whit. It's a media popularity contest driven by an inflated win-loss record. Franky Carson Palmer is more deserving.


We have 10 probowlers, you have 7.
We have 8 all pros, you have 3.


Again these are meaningless media popularity contests. If you want to evaluate position by position talent, look at DPYAR or PFF individual stats. Of course football is a team game, so again meaningless.

We won 15 games, you won 10.

This earned you the #1 seed and the week off and homefield. Past that, this is the playoffs and regular season record is utterly meaningless. Furthermore, the Panthers have feasted on the weakest schedule in the NFL and it's not particularly close. OTOH, Seattle has had some bad luck (some admittedly self-inflicted). DVOA tells us that both teams are actually fairly close talent-wise with the about the same 'expected' record (about 12 wins).

We have the #1 offense in the league.

And Seattle has the #1 defense. In playoff situations, the #1 defense almost always beats the #1 offense. Not only that but the only reason you got the #1 offense was because we thrashed Arizona in week 17.

We beat you head to head in your house.

Meaningless. It was a game in October. Go look at how rematches go in playoffs. Heck, for that matter you know it yourselves having demolished Atlanta 38-0 only to lose to them a mere two weeks later.

We're playing at home this time.

Seattle has actually played better on the road than at home this year. Not only that but how often has Seattle lost in your place in the last three years? Yeah, thought so. I wouldn't say that home field is all that big an edge or a reason to call Carolina 'superior'.

 

[Polaris]

No, DVOA is not the ONLY thing Seattle fans are pointing at, and while efficiency stats don't predict which team will win, they DO say which team is playing better. I read the above post and I am hearing a lot of insecurity and a lot of false bravado. The fact is until that ONE game in October (and only because of a late mistake by a player that isn't on the team any more), Seattle has OWNED Carolina, and I don't expect it to be any different this Sunday, especially given that Seattle has gotten stronger and Carolina really hasn't (or at least not nearly as much) especially in the secondary which Wilson will exploit.

As for strength of schedule, there is no 'talking out of both sides of mouth' going on. This is something that can and has been measured. Seattle has faced a fairly hard schedule overall. The Panthers have had the easiest slate in the league. Just the facts.

Edit: As for last week, the Vikings looked awful in the cold too. Don't take my word, look at the box score. The thing about cold is that extreme cold is an equalizer and negates otherwise superior talent. Looking at the game play by play, I estimate the cold cost Seattle at least 14 if not 17 points and *may* have cost Minny 3 points. Now you are getting the margin that people expected. You have no idea how extreme cold affects a game unless you've experienced it so stuff it.

Oh someone is getting angry now. Can't take someone pointing out that your team is indeed inferior in many ways? Keep making excuses for Seattle. I'm excited to see what excuses are made after Sunday. Thank you as well, for going to that well about owning Carolina, that is indeed talking from both sides of your mouth. If those wins matter then it certainly matters that we beat you in the Clink THIS season.

You can break out your ban hammer now if you like but you'd miss out on my crow should Seattle receive another miracle this Sunday, which is what it will take for you to win.

I am tired of Panther fans coming out of the woodwork that actually think they are something they aren't.

 

[Uncle Si]

DVOA vs. Wins/losses

Pro Bowlerss and All pros

Bad wins and good losses

It's all there for both sides. Two opponents couldn't be any closer.

Excited for this one.

 

[panthers4life]

I am tired of Panther fans coming out of the woodwork that actually think they are something they aren't.

Like I said, there's no point that can be made that won't be devalued. So it really is a pointless exercise, after all this is a Seattle board so your welcome to your green glasses. The only real value this discussion has is the "I told you so" factor once the game has been played. Carolina will beat Seattle Sunday, I'll be here to grin and bear it if I'm wrong.

 

[Polaris]

I am tired of Panther fans coming out of the woodwork that actually think they are something they aren't.

Like I said, there's no point that can be made that won't be devalued. So it really is a pointless exercise, after all this is a Seattle board so your welcome to your green glasses. The only real value this discussion has is the "I told you so" factor once the game has been played. Carolina will beat Seattle Sunday, I'll be here to grin and bear it if I'm wrong

They way you devalue every advanced analytic that shows just how inflated the Panthers schedule has been? No on is saying that the Panthers aren't a good team or that it will be easy, but too many of you seem to think you'll blow us out by thirty. That won't happen. It might happen w/Seattle winning (but I don't think so for the record), but not the other way around.

Most of the reason you Panther fans have come up with are frankly a bit laughable. How many probowlers you have on the roster (a popularity contest anyway) has no real relevance to how you do in the playoffs, and having a good record really doesn't either (ask the Green Bay Packers of a few years ago). DVOA at least compares apples to apples.

 

[rideaducati]

If you don't like DVOA then give a reasonable explanation of why it is flawed other than you just don't like it. Or provide a different source that backs up your reasons like has been done here with DVOA.

Well the only thing any Seahawk fan here is pointing to is DVOA. Which we've well established is an efficiency rating and nothing more. I'm really happy for your team efficiency. Too bad efficiency doesn't predict who will win.

Why is Carolina better?
We have the league MVP, you don't.
We have 10 probowlers, you have 7.
We have 8 all pros, you have 3.
We won 15 games, you won 10.
We have the #1 offense in the league.
We beat you head to head in your house.
We're playing at home this time.

Next, you start talking from both sides of your mouth again. Criticizing schedule, even though you lost to the Rams twice, us, and really the Vikings as well. You'll claim Russel was the MVP not Cam, even though Cam IS the MVP. You'll say our head to head win doesn't matter, while also claiming your pedigree makes all the difference. Then you'll talk a lot about your precious DVOA again because it's really the only thing you can point to that makes any argument for Seattle to win. Those notes above sir are the reason DVOA is flawed. DVOA said we should win 11 games, it was wrong. DVOA said you should win 12-13 games, it was wrong. DVOA says you should win this weekend and it will be wrong again.

It's all really pointless because you'll devalue anything that indicates Carolina will win. You blindly think you have a better team even though the ProBowl, All-Pro, head to head, and overall record disagree with you. You keep thinking your peaking at the right time, even though your team was awful last week, but hey, it was cold, that's the excuse there. The Vikings played in the same weather and played well enough to win that game. Your team is flawed, at times this season this board has been realistic about that, but now the blinders are on. Carolina will bring you back to earth this Sunday, I'll be there in person to watch it.

I'll be back to eat crow and congratulate you if I'm wrong.

WHEN you're wrong, you won't come back until a week before the Panthers play the Seahawks next season.

But just in case I don't see you next week, bye Felicia.

 

[panthers4life]

WHEN you're wrong, you won't come back until a week before the Panthers play the Seahawks next season.

But just in case I don't see you next week, bye Felicia.

I take offense to this sir, you should look at my post history. I was here for our divisional matchup last year and returned to congratulate you.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=105355

 

[WilsonMVP]

If people want to list Cam being MVP as one of the reasons Panthers will win I will laugh in their face...not only has Seattle beat the last 2 MVPS in the playoffs, but Wilson is just as good if not better than Cam this year while facing more top defenses

 

[Seahawkfan80]

Because the sample size is too small. We are discussing the entire body of work and that is relevant. Truth be told,this is all about us nerds staying busy until Sunday. But the Hawks are just in a position that we feel is great going into the game. Can Carolina win? Absolutely! We just don't think they will given the two teams cumulative body of work and where they are at health wise. And DVOA is pretty solid and to discard that is just willingly ignoring something you don't like.

Dont you mean nerds/geeks need to stay busy til Saturday...because yanno we will be watching those other games probably since they may affect us when we win on Sunday. :twisted: :mrgreen: :stirthepot:

 

[olyfan63]

Strength of schedule is of course, largely reflected in DVOA. From what I can tell, DVOA means next to nothing for this game, other than stating the obvious that the two teams are very closely matched, on paper. Week 6 results have some meaning, but not really that much as both teams have changed quite a bit since then.

The two teams are evenly matched across the board in nearly all ways.
Carolina has the home field advantage, typically worth 3 points.

Seattle's passing attack appears to have a matchup edge against a banged-up Carolina secondary. For Seattle to exploit that advantage, the Seattle OL will need to not get smoked by the Carolina pass rush, OR, Wilson will need to pull his Houdini act numerous times. Also, Carroll and Bevell will need to come out with an aggressive game plan to attack Carolina's secondary. If Carroll and Bevell come out with a BS conservative defense slugfest game plan, run-run-pass-kick, we might as well congratulate Carolina early and turn our attention to the 2016 draft.

Carolina's running game had a matchup edge on us in week 6. We were missing Bobby Wagner, who seems to be a key to stopping opponents' running attack. The Carolina running game, including Cam's running, especially his 3rd-and-1 conversions, appears to be a wildcard matchup. If Carolina wins this matchup, even with Wagner back for Seattle, they have an excellent chance to win the game.

Carolina's passing game *should* struggle against the Seattle defense, especially our secondary, but Cam's growth as a QB is a wildcard here. He reads defenses this year. We can't count on him to always choke with a headscratcher throw this year. Still, I think Seattle will mostly hold Cam's passing in check. However... this points out another key matchup. The Seattle pass rush against the Carolina OL and Cam's scrambling. This matchup is an X factor also... if Carolina's better-than-expected protection plus Cam's scrambling buy enough time, and Cam keeps drives alive with scrambles for first downs, it could even up this matchup and improve Carolina's chances.

There could be in-game injuries that change the course of the game, like Jeremy Lane and Cliff Avril's injuries that cost us Super Bowl 49 (and Marquand Manuel's pulled hammy that cost us SBXL, refs aside).

Personally, I admire and respect Carolina's accomplishments this year, and Cam's continuing progress as a legit NFL quarterback, and Carolina's excellent defense. Probably the two best teams in the NFL are playing in the divisional round. (I'll take Carolina over Arizona and all the AFC teams) I also believe Seattle will be the better team on Sunday, especially if we can exploit the Panther secondary the way we did Denver's secondary in SB48.

I think what the DVOA really says is that Seattle has the overall team strength to match up with 15-1 Carolina and the real potential to win this game, even on the road. Conversely, DVOA also says Carolina is a tough matchup for Seattle as well. The Carolina defense actually grades out better than the Seattle defense on DVOA, according to pre-playoffs numbers. What DVOA doesn't seem to account that I can tell is the more specific matchups of position groups, like the ones I laid out above.

I plan to listen to this podcast Laloosh mentioned on gameday, to improve my education on DVOA. I'm sure I'm currently ignorant on lots of DVOA nuances, so I'll work on that.

Fieldgulls podcast with Aaron Schatz, in case you're into that whole DVOA thing and how it relates to Seattle.
http://www.fieldgulls.com/2016/1/14/107 ... ell-wilson

 

[rideaducati]

Panther fans won't even begin to understand DVOA until after the Panthers rank first in DVOA...that's the way they roll.

 

[francois.nc]

Can someone update me with the newest DOVA rankings?