Comparative analysis of teams with easy strength of schedule

[Polaris]

The reason Football Outsider's playoff model gives the Panthers a slight edge to win (50.3% vs 49.7%) despite the lower DVOA is because it's a home game for Carolina. DVOA assumes a neutral field, so Football Outsiders adjusts for home field in their model.

 

[HuskyHawk]

No I get what he's trying to say. But my point is this (and I guess I've been bad at conveying this), why bring in stats that are built upon what you have done against other teams when you already have stats from a game that was played head to head? I mean I could understand if we hadn't played each other, you'd need something else to give you an idea of what to expect. But we already played each other. Isn't that more indicative of what might happen as opposed to seeing how Seattle did against team x,y,z and how Carolina did against team a,b,c?

If you believe this then how can you explain how Carolina lost to Atlanta in week 16? If you only focus on stats head-to-head, then how do you explain such a huge discrepancy between a 38-0 victory in Week 14 and a 20-13 loss only two weeks later? As mentioned earlier, the NFL is a league of momentum and how you are playing right now. I think if you ask anybody who is familiar with football and watches Russell Wilson, they would say he is playing significantly better now than he was in week 6. If you choose to put blinders on and only focus on that week 6 matchup, you will be very surprised this weekend.

 

[WilsonMVP]

So you're not impressed with the 15-1 record because in reality we shouldn't be 15-1? If you say we don't measure up to our record that then implies that we exceeded any reasonable expectation. I would say that's a good thing, no?

No, it means what the Atlanta or Texan records meant a couple of years ago. You smashed up a bunch of tin cans. Good for you. You're supposed to do that; no one is saying you haven't earned your seed. However, don't expect people outside the South East to be all that impressed.

I don't know man, during the last month your team beat the Browns, Ravens and lost to the Rams. None of those teams are very good. And you lost to the Rams earlier in the year too. We may not have played as many good teams as you have but the good teams we did play we beat. I don't think I agree with the notion that losing to most of the good teams is better than winning against the bad ones.

Now you're cherry picking. Don't forget that win on the road against Arizona that is even more recent. Also if you want to point to the Rams then I get to point to Atlanta. You should know better than anyone that some divisional teams have the number of some others regardless of record or other circumstances. The Rams are that way with Seattle and have been since Fischer became the coach there. I know that historically you've had your own issues with the Saints. Let's also not forget that in addition to Arizona, Seattle in that same period beat a pretty good Minny team ON THE ROAD not once but twice and this last time in truly appalling conditions. I'd also say the Pittsburgh win was a good quality win as well.

And the Seahawks shut down AP completely and only allowed 16 total points, 7 of which came in a meaningless kickoff return when the game was out of hand allready in those 2 vikings games.

 

[WilsonMVP]

This is getting convoluted.

Simply put. Do you believe that the seeding is accurate? Meaning do you think the #4 should always beat the #5 and so on?

I assume you don't. You seem to be level headed so if you subscribe to the idea that maybe the #4 is possibly better than say the #2. Ho do you justify your belief?

Well it's not that hard really. Multiple reputable websites show why they believe one team might be better than another.

Polaris is not trying to be a dick he is trying to break down why DVOA favors us in this match up. He is also giving you full credit for your accomplishments as well as ability, included in the rankings.

Simply put. DVOA says your team over achieved in it's win total. This does not calculate for strength of schedule it simply says if all situations are equal this is where they think you would end up. You already said you wouldn't have a 15-1 record with our schedule so you obviously understand what DVOA is trying to tell you.

Seattle started the season against the worst possible match ups with the worst case scenario at a couple of positions. End result was we lost games DVOA thought we would normally win. Carolina was on the opposite end of that including catching Seattle at just about the perfect time.

From my interpretation of DVOA it basically says it believes we are both 11 win teams with Seattle having the slight edge. It's not Rocket Surgery.

No I get what he's trying to say. But my point is this (and I guess I've been bad at conveying this), why bring in stats that are built upon what you have done against other teams when you already have stats from a game that was played head to head? I mean I could understand if we hadn't played each other, you'd need something else to give you an idea of what to expect. But we already played each other. Isn't that more indicative of what might happen as opposed to seeing how Seattle did against team x,y,z and how Carolina did against team a,b,c?

Seahawks give up about 5 less points on the road this year than at home for one...if you are looking for a stat. First game was played at home, second is on the road. Second thing I have to say about that game is Cam Newton played like garbage for almost 3 quarters and with defensive breakdowns in 4th combined with offensive ineptitude, we barely lost. I mean the game WAS 20-7 Seahawks at one point. Once Seattle went up 20-7 the offense went 3 and out 3 times and made a FG the other time.

Even with Newton coming back and winning the game he still had 2INT, and a 65 QB rating. Hardly "MVP" worthy.

Also to add to this I said Carolina was the Seahawks biggest threat to a superbowl in the thread we had in the preseason I believe and its still true. They are a good team and each game has been pretty close decided at the very end of the game usually. Alot of people said the Packers, well, what do those people say now haha. Packers have always been just Rodgers carrying the team to 3-4 more wins then they should have. The team itself is barely better than the Rams.

 

[francois.nc]

So what your saying is Cam really sucked that day and we still won anyway. I guess it's a good thing he has gotten a lot better since then. I got it now.

 

[Overseasfan]

Is this Carolinablue guy seriously saying that record is everything. That they should win just because 15-1 is better than 10-6? That strength of schedule and form/momentum mean nothing?

For example we could look at the entire season and determine how good both of us will be this weekend but do you really think that a loss against a strong team while in bad form is going to impact a game played a few months later?

Look at the second half of the season. You went 7-1, while we followed closely with 6-2. Looks a lot different than 15-1 opposed to 10-6 all of a sudden. We had a tougher schedule as well with the Steelers, Vikes and AZ 2 times.

I'm by no means saying that we are going to win for sure. Just some food for thought that games played in october don't really matter when trying to determine how well a team will play in January.

 

[francois.nc]

I personally think this will be an incredible game. The one thing the Panthers have going for them in this game that they haven't had in the past, is the fact that they know they can beat the Seahawks. While I am not guaranteeing that they win the game either, the pure fact that they were able to actually get a victory against you is huge around here. We had so many heartbreaking close losses to you guys it is really more of a mental thing in my opinion. Now that we've done it I just think they are much more confident that they can do it again. I think it also helps that we are at home, this team wants to show the fans and the rest of the NFL that we are here to stay. Just the fact that we have won the South 3 times in a row is big, prior to us winning it twice no one had ever even repeated in bank to back years. With both the Saints and Bucs wining it all since it was formed I believe this division historically is better than you think.

Good luck and I can't wait for Sunday.

 

[RichNhansom]

I personally think this will be an incredible game. The one thing the Panthers have going for them in this game that they haven't had in the past, is the fact that they know they can beat the Seahawks. While I am not guaranteeing that they win the game either, the pure fact that they were able to actually get a victory against you is huge around here. We had so many heartbreaking close losses to you guys it is really more of a mental thing in my opinion. Now that we've done it I just think they are much more confident that they can do it again. I think it also helps that we are at home, this team wants to show the fans and the rest of the NFL that we are here to stay. Just the fact that we have won the South 3 times in a row is big, prior to us winning it twice no one had ever even repeated in bank to back years. With both the Saints and Bucs wining it all since it was formed I believe this division historically is better than you think.

Good luck and I can't wait for Sunday.

I agree that win earlier in the year is a confidence booster but that door swings both ways. Seattle will likely take you more serious as well. Also in that same regard the Seahawks just might have a chip on their shoulder and be looking for revenge.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Panthers r ded

 

[Vancanhawksfan]

No I get what he's trying to say. But my point is this (and I guess I've been bad at conveying this), why bring in stats that are built upon what you have done against other teams when you already have stats from a game that was played head to head? I mean I could understand if we hadn't played each other, you'd need something else to give you an idea of what to expect. But we already played each other. Isn't that more indicative of what might happen as opposed to seeing how Seattle did against team x,y,z and how Carolina did against team a,b,c?

Ok.

Head to head Seattle leads the series 7-3

The last game Carolina won 27-23. Seattle had a nine point lead going into the 4th quarter and had a meltdown losing on a Carolina TD in the last minute of play. Seahawks fans believe we gave this game away to you. That said fair play to the Panthers on this day - but this loss was in the middle of Seattle's worst six game stretch since 2011. Its safe to say they've righted the ship now as Seattle has had an incredible stretch of 7 games to finish off the season.

Prior to this matchup Seattle has beat Carolina 5 games in a row, including 3 games in a row in Charlotte.

Seattle is 2-0 against Carolina in the playoffs.

Those are the most relevant head to head stats I can think of. Do you have others?

 

[SeaWolv]

There was a post about this yesterday.

My take:

Teams with low SOS have inflated win/loss records. No brainier. Look at SB48. Hawks SOS #11 Broncos #32. I had a really strong feeling before that game that it might get out of hand. Not 43-8 out of hand. More like 3 TD's out of hand. SB49 Hawks were at #6, Pats #10. Looked like a toss up and it basically was. This year, NFC Divisional game, Hawks are #4 and Panthers are #27. It could get ugly for Carolina but either way I feel confident it's a win for Seattle.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=122284

 

[SeaWolv]

Well w/r/t WIlson against top defenses, you can start with how Wilson handled the 49ners the last three years and the 49ners were definitely a top notch defense. Yes they stink this year, but that's very recent. Let's also not forget that Wilson is what? 5-1 against your panthers who also have a top notch defense? Also Wilson is 4-2 against Arizona under Arians and that's another top notch defense.

Seems to me that Wilson does pretty well against top notch defenses (except the Rams for some reason).

Was more curious about his numbers this year. I haven't really checked into the ranks of opposing defenses that you guys played all year. I know Arizona is pretty good though and you scored a bunch there but outside that I'd have to look it up and I guess I'm to lazy.

Unfortunately for Seattle, Seattle got the best defenses when they were playing their worst early in the season. However, Minny's defense and of course Arizona's defense (talking about this year only) are nothing to sneeze at. However, if you want to go down that route then look at DVOA (yes I know you Panthers fans hate DVOA but it is what it is). It accounts for all this...and Carolina is hardly bad in DVOA. It's just that DVOA shines a very hard and harsh light what the rest of the NFL strongly suspects: Seattle had bad luck (schedule, fumble and penalty) all year and got stuck with a worse record than their level of play (esp now) would normally indicate, and Carolina blessed with good luck (esp schedule, but also to some degree penalty and fumble) has a record that is far better than their level of play would normally indicate. It was Nate Silver of 538 iirc that blasted Carolina for being the worst (then) 12-0 team in NFL history. There's a reason for this.

This was also early in the season when they were trying to figure out their new Oline wrinkles having lost 2 starters.

 

[SeaWolv]

So you're not impressed with the 15-1 record because in reality we shouldn't be 15-1? If you say we don't measure up to our record that then implies that we exceeded any reasonable expectation. I would say that's a good thing, no?

No, it means what the Atlanta or Texan records meant a couple of years ago. You smashed up a bunch of tin cans. Good for you. You're supposed to do that; no one is saying you haven't earned your seed. However, don't expect people outside the South East to be all that impressed.

I don't know man, during the last month your team beat the Browns, Ravens and lost to the Rams. None of those teams are very good. And you lost to the Rams earlier in the year too. We may not have played as many good teams as you have but the good teams we did play we beat. I don't think I agree with the notion that losing to most of the good teams is better than winning against the bad ones.

Yeah but you lost to the Falcons. :roll:

 

[Vancanhawksfan]

So you're not impressed with the 15-1 record because in reality we shouldn't be 15-1? If you say we don't measure up to our record that then implies that we exceeded any reasonable expectation. I would say that's a good thing, no?

No, it means what the Atlanta or Texan records meant a couple of years ago. You smashed up a bunch of tin cans. Good for you. You're supposed to do that; no one is saying you haven't earned your seed. However, don't expect people outside the South East to be all that impressed.

I don't know man, during the last month your team beat the Browns, Ravens and lost to the Rams. None of those teams are very good. And you lost to the Rams earlier in the year too. We may not have played as many good teams as you have but the good teams we did play we beat. I don't think I agree with the notion that losing to most of the good teams is better than winning against the bad ones.

Dude, the only "good" teams Carolina has played this year are Green Bay and the Hawks. Props for winning these two games (although Hawks fans think they gave that game away to Carolina) but please don't even try to argue that your schedule wasn't anything short of filled with powderpuffs.

Even the Rams are a tougher team than the Texans and Redskins, the only other two teams the Panthers played with barely a winning record (9-7). The Panthers never played a team with more than 10 wins this season.

 

[panthers4life]

Figure I would add another Panther's perspective. I'll add my top 5 facts.

#1. Carolina had the easiest schedule in the NFL.
#2. Carolina is a very good team.
#3. Seattle is a very good team.
#4. Previous games, DVOA, MVP, and Forum/Media chatter will have zero impact on the result.
#5. The team that plays better this Sunday will advance to NFCCCG.

For all the DVOA defenders on here please explain to me why you aren't filthy rich gambling? There is no metric in the world that will give you anything other than a probability, and probabilities have the attribute of being anything from correct to wildly incorrect at any moment.

The most neutral view I can have on this game is either team is capable of winning by a variety of margins. I don't need a lot of numbers for that conclusion, simply watching the games is enough for me.

 

[Vancanhawksfan]

Figure I would add another Panther's perspective. I'll add my top 5 facts.

#1. Carolina had the easiest schedule in the NFL.
#2. Carolina is a very good team.
#3. Seattle is a very good team.
#4. Previous games, DVOA, MVP, and Forum/Media chatter will have zero impact on the result.
#5. The team that plays better this Sunday will advance to NFCCCG.

For all the DVOA defenders on here please explain to me why you aren't filthy rich gambling? There is no metric in the world that will give you anything other than a probability, and probabilities have the attribute of being anything from correct to wildly incorrect at any moment.

The most neutral view I can have on this game is either team is capable of winning by a variety of margins. I don't need a lot of numbers for that conclusion, simply watching the games is enough for me.

But then coming to a message board would be no fun then! :thirishdrinkers:

 

[Hasselbeck]

#5. The team that plays better this Sunday will advance to NFCCCG.

Thanks John.

 

[panthers4life]

Thanks John.

Your welcome Pat.

 

[SeaWolv]

This is getting convoluted.

Simply put. Do you believe that the seeding is accurate? Meaning do you think the #4 should always beat the #5 and so on?

I assume you don't. You seem to be level headed so if you subscribe to the idea that maybe the #4 is possibly better than say the #2. Ho do you justify your belief?

Well it's not that hard really. Multiple reputable websites show why they believe one team might be better than another.

Polaris is not trying to be a dick he is trying to break down why DVOA favors us in this match up. He is also giving you full credit for your accomplishments as well as ability, included in the rankings.

Simply put. DVOA says your team over achieved in it's win total. This does not calculate for strength of schedule it simply says if all situations are equal this is where they think you would end up. You already said you wouldn't have a 15-1 record with our schedule so you obviously understand what DVOA is trying to tell you.

Seattle started the season against the worst possible match ups with the worst case scenario at a couple of positions. End result was we lost games DVOA thought we would normally win. Carolina was on the opposite end of that including catching Seattle at just about the perfect time.

From my interpretation of DVOA it basically says it believes we are both 11 win teams with Seattle having the slight edge. It's not Rocket Surgery.

No I get what he's trying to say. But my point is this (and I guess I've been bad at conveying this), why bring in stats that are built upon what you have done against other teams when you already have stats from a game that was played head to head? I mean I could understand if we hadn't played each other, you'd need something else to give you an idea of what to expect. But we already played each other. Isn't that more indicative of what might happen as opposed to seeing how Seattle did against team x,y,z and how Carolina did against team a,b,c?

You keep wanting to rest your hat on the week 6 match up instead of DVOA stats that takes the teams whole body of work into consideration. Presumably because you won that game. I would point out however that Seattle lead that game until 32 seconds left in the game and they led by 2 TD's until halfway through the 3rd quarter.

 

[SeaWolv]

Figure I would add another Panther's perspective. I'll add my top 5 facts.

#1. Carolina had the easiest schedule in the NFL.
#2. Carolina is a very good team.
#3. Seattle is a very good team.
#4. Previous games, DVOA, MVP, and Forum/Media chatter will have zero impact on the result.
#5. The team that plays better this Sunday will advance to NFCCCG.

For all the DVOA defenders on here please explain to me why you aren't filthy rich gambling? There is no metric in the world that will give you anything other than a probability, and probabilities have the attribute of being anything from correct to wildly incorrect at any moment.

The most neutral view I can have on this game is either team is capable of winning by a variety of margins. I don't need a lot of numbers for that conclusion, simply watching the games is enough for me.

Beyond DVOA, which clearly favors Seattle (no I didn't say guarantees victory), there is SOS which historically shows that teams with low SOS struggle a great deal against teams with high SOS. In this case we're talking #4 Seattle vs. #27 Carolina. Again this is no guarantee of victory but yet another stat that suggests Seattle will most likely win this weekend.