Bryce Brown mini quake a'coming this Sunday?

[byau]

On February 28, 2001, the Nisqually quake (6.8 on the Richter Scale) hit without warning. That quake struck without warning and was felt as far away as Sand Point Idaho … reeking damage and havoc on the Seattle area. No one was suspecting anything like that might happen on that day.

Puts on Roland hat.

Wreaking. Wreaking. Not reeking. :34853_doh:

Maybe he'll smell strongly of damage...
:stirthepot:

Agreed. His havoc will be nasty and have some stank on it.

 

[johnnyfever]

I could be wrong, but I thought I've seen in another post on Brown that Pete has had him here a few times, and never kept ahold of him. You would think if he is a force, or even a trainable force pete would have at least kept him on the practice squad. That and the fact that he has bounced around the league with some pretty good stats as a starter as far as YPC and TD's, to says says there is something else wrong. Could be the fumbles, or maybe like Cmike just couldn't grasp his job in the system. Not sure, but would like to know more.

 

[Hawks46]

On February 28, 2001, the Nisqually quake (6.8 on the Richter Scale) hit without warning. That quake struck without warning and was felt as far away as Sand Point Idaho … reeking damage and havoc on the Seattle area. No one was suspecting anything like that might happen on that day.

Puts on Roland hat.

Wreaking. Wreaking. Not reeking. :34853_doh:

Maybe he'll smell strongly of damage...
:stirthepot:

UGH! I wrote this fairly fast this morning. You guys are as bad as my students when I fail to proofread documents thoroughly. I've sprayed the Lysol and fumigated the initial post. Done.

Any further thoughts on Bryce Brown this Sunday?

Yea, how many fumbles have the Browns forced ?

One lost fumble is more negative than three 20 yard runs are positive.

 

[kearly]

Fumble rate is determined by carries, not games.

As far as Brown goes, he's a very good athlete but more athlete than runner. His situation in Seattle reminds me a little of Darren McFadden in Dallas. We don't need him to dominate we just need a serviceable back. And Brown can probably manage that, if he can hold onto the football.

 

[Hasselbeck]

The guy has talent, its the fumbling problem that has scared teams away.

 

[rideaducati]

I'd put money on Coleman having more yards and carries. I could see a nice run from Coleman coming too.

 

[gcolby]

He looks explosive in those clips, but you can also see why he might have a fumble issue, seems to hold the ball away from his body a lot.

Agreed. Low and away very vulnerable to strip.

If Sherm can coach him up on ball security tape shows potential.

 

[Largent80]

Hey Brown, don't fumble the brown thing.

 

[BlueBlood]

Need to see him run, and won't be overly excited if he puts up 150 against the Browns terrible run D.

150 yards rushing from a guy you found at the quick stop the day before

Ya, no big deal

 

[Cartire]

On February 28, 2001, the Nisqually quake (6.8 on the Richter Scale) hit without warning. That quake struck without warning and was felt as far away as Sand Point Idaho … wreaking damage and havoc on the Seattle area. No one was suspecting anything like that might happen on that day.

I know this has nothing to do with your post, but I remember that quake like it was yesterday. I was in the 12th grade that year. I remember ACTUALLY having to go under my desk when the quake hit and seeing the ground roll through the floor.

And the only thought I had was, "Finally, after 12 years of schooling, my 1st grade earthquake training drills came to fruition."

 

[Hawkscanner]

Fumble rate is determined by carries, not games.

As far as Brown goes, he's a very good athlete but more athlete than runner. His situation in Seattle reminds me a little of Darren McFadden in Dallas. We don't need him to dominate we just need a serviceable back. And Brown can probably manage that, if he can hold onto the football.

Whew! I'm finally home after a long day at school. That's the reason that I don't post nearly as much as I used to.

I knew that people would bring up the issue of Bryce Brown and fumbles, so I took some time away from the stack of papers that I'm supposed to be grading and did a little research. (Hey, you've got to have your priorities straight after all). I'm convinced that when it comes Bryce Brown, the whole fumbling issue is a bit overblown. Why do I say that? Allow me to show you all what I mean ...

I took a look at some of the top RB's in the league and their fumble rates over a 3 year time span. The methodology I employed was a simple one -- taking a look at numbers of fumbles in a year vs. rushing attempts. Here is how their rates compared with those of Bryce Brown ...

Number of Fumbles per Rushing Attempts
Marshawn Lynch …
2015 … 0 in 417 Attempts = 0%
2014 … 3 in 280 Attempts = 1.07%
2013 … 4 in 301 Attempts = 1.32%
Average … 7 in 998 Attempts = 0.7%

Adrian Peterson …
2015 … 7 in 268 Attempts = 2.61%
2013 … 5 in 279 Attempts = 1.79%
2012 … 4 in 348 Attempts = 1.15%
Average … 16 in 895 Attempts = 1.79%

Jamaal Charles
2015 … 3 in 71 Attempts = 4.23%
2014 … 5 in 206 Attempts = 2.43%
2013 … 4 in 259 Attempts = 1.54%
Average … 12 in 536 Attempts = 2.24%

Eddie Lacy
2015 … 4 in 151 Attempts = 2.65%
2014 … 3 in 246 Attempts = 1.22%
2013 … 1 in 248 Attempts = 0.4%
Average … 8 in 645 Attempts = 1.24%

Bryce Brown
2012 … 4 in 115 Attempts = 3.48%
2013-2014 … 1 in 111 Attempts = 0.9%
Average … 5 in 226 Attempts = 2.21%

Now, a couple of interesting things stand out to me. The first thing that stands out is that year per year, rates among some of the best backs can fluctuate. Out of that group of veterans, you can see that Lynch has the best overall fumble rates. Fumbles among these guys can be expected on about 1.5 to 2.5% of the time.

How does that compare with Bryce Brown? Brown had 4 fumbles in 2012 ... 3 of which occurred in his starts against the Panthers and Cowboys (which also happen to be his 2 biggest breakout performances of his career). The timing of those miscues (obviously) is pretty lousy. But check out his rates since that time. Brown has had exactly 1 fumble since 2012 in nearly the same amount of carries for a rate of less than 1% (.09%). It's an admittedly small sample size, but that compares very favorably with those of the elite backs listed above. Is that a sign that he's cleaned up some of the things that plagued him before in terms of how he holds and takes care of the ball? And will that still hold true the more carries he gets? I don't know. We'll see.

When I posted this morning, I was firmly of the conviction that Brown would get somewhere between 15-20 carries this Sunday? Why? I believed that for the simple fact that DuJuan Harris got 18 carries this past game after Rawls went out. Now that Christine Michael has been re-signed (a move that in retrospect is easy to see was coming) ... I honestly have no idea how all the carries are going to shake out. Seattle on the season is averaging between 31-32 rushing attempts per game. You would think that (if he's active for the game) that Brown will get his chances. Over the course of his career, he's shown a propensity for being able to pop big runs. IMO, his speed, overall elusiveness, and big play ability are elements that would be extremely valuable to this offense. Given the porous nature of Cleveland's Run Defense, I firmly believe we'll see some big time rumbling from him if he's given the chance. We'll obviously see how this all this shakes out.

 

[Hawkscanner]

Music to my ears ...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Liz_Mathews/status/677229699819397120[/tweet]

 

[Greenhell]

I'm excited to see him this Sunday.

 

[BillHawks]

He looks explosive in those clips, but you can also see why he might have a fumble issue, seems to hold the ball away from his body a lot.

Agreed. Low and away very vulnerable to strip.

If Sherm can coach him up on ball security tape shows potential.

I kind of wish I hadn't watched the video, there were very few carries that looked like he had the ball well secured. Reminds me of CMike a bit, you can tell he knows how to hold the ball but he must revert to his old style once he gets in a game.

 

[Cartire]

Fumble rate is determined by carries, not games.

As far as Brown goes, he's a very good athlete but more athlete than runner. His situation in Seattle reminds me a little of Darren McFadden in Dallas. We don't need him to dominate we just need a serviceable back. And Brown can probably manage that, if he can hold onto the football.

Whew! I'm finally home after a long day at school. That's the reason that I don't post nearly as much as I used to.

I knew that people would bring up the issue of Bryce Brown and fumbles, so I took some time away from the stack of papers that I'm supposed to be grading and did a little research. (Hey, you've got to have your priorities straight after all). I'm convinced that when it comes Bryce Brown, the whole fumbling issue is a bit overblown. Why do I say that? Allow me to show you all what I mean ...

I took a look at some of the top RB's in the league and their fumble rates over a 3 year time span. The methodology I employed was a simple one -- taking a look at numbers of fumbles in a year vs. rushing attempts. Here is how their rates compared with those of Bryce Brown ...

Number of Fumbles per Rushing Attempts
Marshawn Lynch …
2015 … 0 in 417 Attempts = 0%
2014 … 3 in 280 Attempts = 1.07%
2013 … 4 in 301 Attempts = 1.32%
Average … 7 in 998 Attempts = 0.7%

Adrian Peterson …
2015 … 7 in 268 Attempts = 2.61%
2013 … 5 in 279 Attempts = 1.79%
2012 … 4 in 348 Attempts = 1.15%
Average … 16 in 895 Attempts = 1.79%

Jamaal Charles
2015 … 3 in 71 Attempts = 4.23%
2014 … 5 in 206 Attempts = 2.43%
2013 … 4 in 259 Attempts = 1.54%
Average … 12 in 536 Attempts = 2.24%

Eddie Lacy
2015 … 4 in 151 Attempts = 2.65%
2014 … 3 in 246 Attempts = 1.22%
2013 … 1 in 248 Attempts = 0.4%
Average … 8 in 645 Attempts = 1.24%

Bryce Brown
2012 … 4 in 115 Attempts = 3.48%
2013-2014 … 1 in 111 Attempts = 0.9%
Average … 5 in 226 Attempts = 2.21%

Now, a couple of interesting things stand out to me. The first thing that stands out is that year per year, rates among some of the best backs can fluctuate. Out of that group of veterans, you can see that Lynch has the best overall fumble rates. Fumbles among these guys can be expected on about 1.5 to 2.5% of the time.

How does that compare with Bryce Brown? Brown had 4 fumbles in 2012 ... 3 of which occurred in his starts against the Panthers and Cowboys (which also happen to be his 2 biggest breakout performances of his career). The timing of those miscues (obviously) is pretty lousy. But check out his rates since that time. Brown has had exactly 1 fumble since 2012 in nearly the same amount of carries for a rate of less than 1% (.09%). It's an admittedly small sample size, but that compares very favorably with those of the elite backs listed above. Is that a sign that he's cleaned up some of the things that plagued him before in terms of how he holds and takes care of the ball? And will that still hold true the more carries he gets? I don't know. We'll see.

When I posted this morning, I was firmly of the conviction that Brown would get somewhere between 15-20 carries this Sunday? Why? I believed that for the simple fact that DuJuan Harris got 18 carries this past game after Rawls went out. Now that Christine Michael has been re-signed (a move that in retrospect is easy to see was coming) ... I honestly have no idea how all the carries are going to shake out. Seattle on the season is averaging between 31-32 rushing attempts per game. You would think that (if he's active for the game) that Brown will get his chances. Over the course of his career, he's shown a propensity for being able to pop big runs. IMO, his speed, overall elusiveness, and big play ability are elements that would be extremely valuable to this offense. Given the porous nature of Cleveland's Run Defense, I firmly believe we'll see some big time rumbling from him if he's given the chance. We'll obviously see how this all this shakes out.

God help him if he fumbles in the next 2 games, that it cost us a win. You realize he will be a wanted man. And John and PC will be questioned for their decision.

But if he doesnt, it will be all good.

 

[Hawkscanner]

He looks explosive in those clips, but you can also see why he might have a fumble issue, seems to hold the ball away from his body a lot.

Agreed. Low and away very vulnerable to strip.

If Sherm can coach him up on ball security tape shows potential.

I kind of wish I hadn't watched the video, there were very few carries that looked like he had the ball well secured. Reminds me of CMike a bit, you can tell he knows how to hold the ball but he must revert to his old style once he gets in a game.

Those highlights that I posted there are from 2012-2013. He had limited experience in college, so it's understandable that he'd have flaws in his game like that. I'm honestly not sure if this is still a real issue or not though. He's had 3 years of coaching since then, so much of this could be in the past. I've been looking for recent film clips to compare how he's holding the ball now, but there isn't a whole lot out there to draw upon. As I pointed out via the numbers, his fumble rates have fallen off and look to be in line with those of other starting backs out there. We'll know a lot more come Sunday obviously, as I it sounds like he's going to get his touches in this game.