Shock2k
New member
So I decided to do some research as to the state of the Seahawks going into this St. Louis game and see where it would take me. I had a lot of questions about the team starting with:
What’s up with the passing game?
Suddenly we can’t move the ball down the field. I mean Arizona by DVOA is the best defense in the NFL, but their pass defense is not as good as their run defense… Looking at some stats:
Well here we have a 6% increase in passing with a -2 yards per play drop in per pass and a +2 to incompletions per game. The 10% increase in passing first downs over the last three games is also interesting. If I take the emotion out of it, what does all this all tell me. There must be something wrong in the run game.
But before we determine that:
Why hasn't an increase in passing turned up the same increase in passing production?
Well from my position it’s because of a stat I’ve been concerned with all year. Offensive line pass protection. Which has been downright poor all year. Both Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill have dealt with really poor offensive line play in pass protection. I feel like with a couple more lucky breaks Tannehill’s way, or less Breaks Russell’s way, they have had a pretty similar season.
30th in the league is just not getting it done. This gets real pronounced when playing really good defenses like the 49ers and Arizona. Take some of the best pass rushes in the League (SF, AZ and Rams) and put them up against the 30th worst pass blocking in the league and you will have some tough games.
The 10.83% away game percentage makes sense, since this was when we were missing a lot of offensive line pieces through a bunch of tough road games. But we had everyone back against Arizona and Russell was sacked almost 13% of time on passing plays. This is even more pronounced when you add in, as stated above, a marked increase in pass incompletions (dropped passes) while making 10 more passing attempts a game. This may be a reason that game was such a shocker. Or should it have been a shocker?
The only reason the Seahawks aren’t the number one worst pass protecting team, is because Russell Wilson avoids a lot of sacks by shifting, rushing and scrambling away from them.
With that said, what was the problem with passing in Arizona?
- We have a QB in trouble folks, and playing these tough defensive lines is exposing where our problems. The difference here is we no longer are threating read options to slow the opposing pass defenses down. (I make an argument for this further down)
- Our receivers didn't make receptions they usually make.
Solution: Either the O-Line figures something out in a week (which they haven’t done in 2 years, last year we were the 26th worst pass protecting o-line) or the receivers catch the ball.
Solution (If only): If only we could “scheme” but let’s be honest, they couldn’t scheme the Carolina, 49ers, or Arizona games, so it’s not a reliable option.
This still doesn’t explain what has happened to our run game right?
With the uptick in the passing game the running game has seen a downturn in attempts of course. And .2 yards per rush downtick doesn’t seem like much, but I feel that is a little skewed with Russell Wilson averaging 16 yards a rush. For me the run game seems like 3 big runs a game and everything else is in the 1 to 3 yards arena.
Then you look at yards a game. We’ve gone from a Season 4th to 20th in the last three games. So add a major downturn in rushing production, which we try to compensate for by attempting more passes (or forced to pass more, or game plan to pass more) and suddenly we are not the same offense. The Seahawks aren’t used to playing that style of offense.
I think the problem is even more pronounced that we have abandoned the read option. It’s taken away that half a second of hesitation by these aggressive defenses, embolden them to pressure even more, and put even more pressure on an offensive line that is already struggling.
The read option argument is a little fantastical, but look at the difference between the New Orleans game and the Arizona game. Two very similar defenses and the same Scheme’s for their away Seattle games, but two very different results. Don’t believe me? Check this out.
You want to bet that when Seattle was game planning for Arizona they thought, well I’m going to attempt to expose the 15th worst pass defense instead of trying to expose the 6th ranked rush defense. Did you know that Arizona is 30th at allowing 1rst downs on pass plays. Almost the worst in the NFL! Heck it’s the game plan I would have come up with.
Again, I would say this helps my conclusion, the problem is with the offensive line.
Solution: What was working last year (and in New Orleans) was the read option helping the offensive line. Take it away and the results are bad against good pass rush teams. I think the Hawks are costing themselves games by not letting Russell Wilson burn people on the ground.
You may think you are saving him, but he’s one of the most hurried and hit QB’s in the league. So you aren’t helping him out. When Seattle was best was when Wilson would just keep burning teams, not for even the 16 yard plays, I’m talking the 5 yard plays where he would end in a QB slide. To me that will make the difference between having a New Orleans day or an Arizona day until the line gets better, or the line coaching/scheme gets better.
Oh and if your argument is still that our O-line is great because of how many yards we put up the last two seasons, I would counter with that’s a product of attempts.
Payton Manning has the #1 pass protection in the league, and even though Denver makes the second most pass attempts in the league, they have the 11th best rushing offense in the league. (You ever wonder how Tim Tebow got to the playoffs). Good lines make OK quarterbacks look great, and great quarterbacks legends. They of course can have the opposite effect.
Of all the teams in the NFL, I like the Seahawks Secondary against Denver receiving. But our Defensive pass rush against the #1 offensive line in the league…. I just don’t know. But I digress.
What does this tell me about the Rams Game?
Oh and as for St. Louis. You better not get your hopes up if we come in with the same game plan. St Louis and Arizona are almost exactly the same teams statistically. (Though edge to Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Secondary, but not the edge to the St. Louis pass rush).
If that’s not sobering to you it should be. You think we are going into the Rams game with the same gameplan and not getting the same treatment as Arizona. You think we are going to get 4 interceptions to balance things out?
Coaching (O-line, Gameplan) is going to have to make a significant shift. Read Options, Wide Receiver Screens, Full back options. I’m talking West coast, quick pass, dink and dunk. There is a reasonable possibility that we could get blown out. Turn two of those interceptions Against Arizona in the end zone into touchdowns and we lost 32 to 10. (Ask the 2012 Bears about relying on Turnover differential in winning a championship),
Sorry, I meant for this to be a hopeful post, I didn’t realize what we were actually facing on Sunday. Then again, what the hell do I know!
What’s up with the passing game?
Suddenly we can’t move the ball down the field. I mean Arizona by DVOA is the best defense in the NFL, but their pass defense is not as good as their run defense… Looking at some stats:
| Seahawks Passing Stats | 2013 | Rank | Last 3 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Play % | 48% | 31st | 54% | 22nd |
| Yards Per Pass | 7.8 | 3rd | 5.9 | 25th |
| Pass First Down % | 53% | N/A | 63% | N/A |
| Incompletions Per Game | 9.7 | 1st | 11.7 | 10th |
Well here we have a 6% increase in passing with a -2 yards per play drop in per pass and a +2 to incompletions per game. The 10% increase in passing first downs over the last three games is also interesting. If I take the emotion out of it, what does all this all tell me. There must be something wrong in the run game.
But before we determine that:
Why hasn't an increase in passing turned up the same increase in passing production?
Well from my position it’s because of a stat I’ve been concerned with all year. Offensive line pass protection. Which has been downright poor all year. Both Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill have dealt with really poor offensive line play in pass protection. I feel like with a couple more lucky breaks Tannehill’s way, or less Breaks Russell’s way, they have had a pretty similar season.
| QB Sack Rates %(Passing) | 2013 | Rank | Last 3 | Rank | Week 16 | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 9.15% | 30th | 10.99% | 28th | 12.90% | 7.11% | 10.83% |
| Ryan Tannehill | 9.48% | 32nd | 17.40% | 29th | 17.50% | 9.61% | 9.37% |
30th in the league is just not getting it done. This gets real pronounced when playing really good defenses like the 49ers and Arizona. Take some of the best pass rushes in the League (SF, AZ and Rams) and put them up against the 30th worst pass blocking in the league and you will have some tough games.
The 10.83% away game percentage makes sense, since this was when we were missing a lot of offensive line pieces through a bunch of tough road games. But we had everyone back against Arizona and Russell was sacked almost 13% of time on passing plays. This is even more pronounced when you add in, as stated above, a marked increase in pass incompletions (dropped passes) while making 10 more passing attempts a game. This may be a reason that game was such a shocker. Or should it have been a shocker?
The only reason the Seahawks aren’t the number one worst pass protecting team, is because Russell Wilson avoids a lot of sacks by shifting, rushing and scrambling away from them.
With that said, what was the problem with passing in Arizona?
- We have a QB in trouble folks, and playing these tough defensive lines is exposing where our problems. The difference here is we no longer are threating read options to slow the opposing pass defenses down. (I make an argument for this further down)
- Our receivers didn't make receptions they usually make.
Solution: Either the O-Line figures something out in a week (which they haven’t done in 2 years, last year we were the 26th worst pass protecting o-line) or the receivers catch the ball.
Solution (If only): If only we could “scheme” but let’s be honest, they couldn’t scheme the Carolina, 49ers, or Arizona games, so it’s not a reliable option.
This still doesn’t explain what has happened to our run game right?
| Seahawks Rushing Stats | 2013 | Rank | Last 3 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attempts per Game | 31.5 | 3rd | 25.7 | 17th |
| YardsPerRush | 4.4 | 11th | 4.2 | 16th |
| Rushing Yards/Game | 138.5 | 4th | 107.7 | 20th |
With the uptick in the passing game the running game has seen a downturn in attempts of course. And .2 yards per rush downtick doesn’t seem like much, but I feel that is a little skewed with Russell Wilson averaging 16 yards a rush. For me the run game seems like 3 big runs a game and everything else is in the 1 to 3 yards arena.
Then you look at yards a game. We’ve gone from a Season 4th to 20th in the last three games. So add a major downturn in rushing production, which we try to compensate for by attempting more passes (or forced to pass more, or game plan to pass more) and suddenly we are not the same offense. The Seahawks aren’t used to playing that style of offense.
I think the problem is even more pronounced that we have abandoned the read option. It’s taken away that half a second of hesitation by these aggressive defenses, embolden them to pressure even more, and put even more pressure on an offensive line that is already struggling.
The read option argument is a little fantastical, but look at the difference between the New Orleans game and the Arizona game. Two very similar defenses and the same Scheme’s for their away Seattle games, but two very different results. Don’t believe me? Check this out.
| Team Defense (Last 3) | NewOrleans | Rank | Arizona | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sack% Against Opponents | 10.59% | 3rd | 8.94% | 6th |
| Passing Yards/Game Allowed | 136.7 | 2nd | 230.3 | 15th |
| Rushing Yards/Game Allowed | 114.1 | 14th | 89.7 | 6th |
You want to bet that when Seattle was game planning for Arizona they thought, well I’m going to attempt to expose the 15th worst pass defense instead of trying to expose the 6th ranked rush defense. Did you know that Arizona is 30th at allowing 1rst downs on pass plays. Almost the worst in the NFL! Heck it’s the game plan I would have come up with.
Again, I would say this helps my conclusion, the problem is with the offensive line.
Solution: What was working last year (and in New Orleans) was the read option helping the offensive line. Take it away and the results are bad against good pass rush teams. I think the Hawks are costing themselves games by not letting Russell Wilson burn people on the ground.
You may think you are saving him, but he’s one of the most hurried and hit QB’s in the league. So you aren’t helping him out. When Seattle was best was when Wilson would just keep burning teams, not for even the 16 yard plays, I’m talking the 5 yard plays where he would end in a QB slide. To me that will make the difference between having a New Orleans day or an Arizona day until the line gets better, or the line coaching/scheme gets better.
Oh and if your argument is still that our O-line is great because of how many yards we put up the last two seasons, I would counter with that’s a product of attempts.
Payton Manning has the #1 pass protection in the league, and even though Denver makes the second most pass attempts in the league, they have the 11th best rushing offense in the league. (You ever wonder how Tim Tebow got to the playoffs). Good lines make OK quarterbacks look great, and great quarterbacks legends. They of course can have the opposite effect.
Of all the teams in the NFL, I like the Seahawks Secondary against Denver receiving. But our Defensive pass rush against the #1 offensive line in the league…. I just don’t know. But I digress.
What does this tell me about the Rams Game?
Oh and as for St. Louis. You better not get your hopes up if we come in with the same game plan. St Louis and Arizona are almost exactly the same teams statistically. (Though edge to Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Secondary, but not the edge to the St. Louis pass rush).
| Cards/Rams Defense (Last 3) | Rams | Arizona | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sack % Against Opponents | 9.52% | 4th | 8.94% | 6th |
| Passing Yards/Game Allowed | 248 | 24th | 230.3 | 15th |
| Rushing Yards/Game Allowed | 75.7 | 4th | 89.7 | 6th |
If that’s not sobering to you it should be. You think we are going into the Rams game with the same gameplan and not getting the same treatment as Arizona. You think we are going to get 4 interceptions to balance things out?
Coaching (O-line, Gameplan) is going to have to make a significant shift. Read Options, Wide Receiver Screens, Full back options. I’m talking West coast, quick pass, dink and dunk. There is a reasonable possibility that we could get blown out. Turn two of those interceptions Against Arizona in the end zone into touchdowns and we lost 32 to 10. (Ask the 2012 Bears about relying on Turnover differential in winning a championship),
Sorry, I meant for this to be a hopeful post, I didn’t realize what we were actually facing on Sunday. Then again, what the hell do I know!
