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Answering the Ultimate Question Part 1
The Ultimate Question seems to come up every year. Who was the greatest playoffs QB of all time? Irrational Brady/Manning, Montana/Marino, Starr/Unitas arguments inevitably ensue. Part of the reason for Football Outsiders advanced metrics is to give us some guidance on measuring the difference between one individual player and the next. Unfortunately, there are several reasons why they cannot help us answer this age old question.
There are currently 27 QB's in the Hall of Fame from the modern era. Football Outsiders advanced metrics only go back to 1989. Therefore, there are only complete statistics for the entire career of one HOF QB: Troy Aikman. There are partial career stats for 6 other HOF QB's. The remaining 20 QB's had careers entirely outside the scope of Football Outsiders advanced metrics.
The game has changed in several ways over the years. Offensive linemen can now use their hands. DB's can't get away with nearly as much as they used to be able to. There didn't use to be a roughing the passer rule and intentional grounding included just throwing the ball out of bounds.
In order to answer the Ultimate Question we need to even out the playing field. Remove the noise, so to speak. For the latter problems, the answer seems simple: compare the greatest QB's to their peers to see how they compare and then use that as a guide to giving us insight into how their stats compare to others of different generations. We can also define each era by looking at patterns across the NFL and how rules changes affected the passing game.
For the former problem, I've attempted to infer a QB's DYAR/gm from certain key stats which we do have for every QB who has ever played the game. Completion %, TD%, INT%, AY/A and ANY/A. It's not perfect, but since it will be 2050 before we have the full stats on Bart Starr, it will have to do. Especially since by that time I'll hopefully be in a stadium in the sky watching Starr and his Packers trying to solve Montana and his 49ers (as opposed to having to watch Seattle's final pass in SB XLVIIII over and over for eternity).
One other thing we need to consider is who qualifies for the discussion of greatest playoffs QB of all time or GPQ. Stats can tell one side of the story, the people who saw the QB play can tell another. For the human qualification, rather than leave it up to a totally uneducated internet poll, I chose only those QB's who are inducted into the HOF and a handful of current QB's who are most likely to be inducted - Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner and Brett Favre. These are the list of QB's from which we will look at the stats and try to answer the Ultimate Question: Who is the greatest playoff QB of all time?
PART ONE: Defining each era of football: How the game changed.
The first major change that affected the QB happened before there even were QB's and it wasn't even a rules change. You see, back in the Stone Age of the NFL, they didn't really throw the ball much and pretty much anyone behind the line was allowed to chuck it if they really felt they just had to. But all that changed after the Chicago Bears annihilated the Washington Redskins 73-0 in the 1940 championship game. The Bears utilized a college formation called the T. Sid Luckman lined up behind center and the game changed forever. Some call this the modern age of football, but I call it the Bronze Age. The modern age was yet to come.
Before I discuss each Age of Football, let's take a look at where the NFL is today. These were the league wide averages for 2014:
C% 62.6% (highest ever)
TD% 4.5 (highest it's been since Football Outsiders started tracking DVOA stats in 1989)
INT% 2.5 (lowest it's ever been)
AY/A 7.0 (first time in NFL history it has reached 7)
ANY/A 6.1 (first time in NFL history it has gone above 6)
Alright, now you have a baseline to compare the present day NFL to each era that came before.
The Bronze Age 1940-1949
C% 45.0
TD% 5.2
INT% 8.8
AY/A 3.4
ANY/A You can't sack what isn't yet an official position.
Not very accurate and didn't pass for much yardage, but they did get more TD's per pass than the modern game does. Not until every team had adopted the QB as an official position did we see things start to improve. Which ushers in our next age:
The Classical Age: 1950-1959
C% 48.6
TD% 5.0
INT% 7.0
AY/A 4.8
ANY/A 3.78
With a full time QB, the NFL saw the passing game start to improve. The days of league wide TD%'s above 6 were over however. Then came the next big change.
The AFL Age 1960-1969
The AFL came onto the scene in 1960. It's stats are not included here. The two leagues merged in 1966, but did not start playing each other during the regular season until 1970. During this time, the talent pool of the NFL was being syphoned off by the AFL.
Prior to 1966, the NFL QB was just hitting his stride. Completion %'s were never to dip below 50% again. From 1963 to 1965, for the first time in NFL history, QB's threw TD's at a higher rate than they threw INT's. AY/A was to stay over 6 from 1962 to1965. The passing game was really opening up. The merger changed all that. After 1966, every stat except completion % dropped off as the talent pool was diluted by the inclusion of the former AFL players.
This is what the NFL looked like for the entire decade:
C% 51.7
TD% 5.3
INT% 5.6
AY/A 5.8
ANY/A 4.6
This is what the NFL looked like from 1960-1965 when the AFL was draiing its talent:
C% 51.6
TD% 5.5
INT% 5.8
AYA 5.9
ANYA 4.7
This is what happened after the merger, but before inter league play:
C% 51.7
TD% 4.9
INT% 5.3
AYA 5.6
ANYA 4.5
The AFL's reputation for more wide open football wasn't actually true. NFL QB's threw further per attempt and on the whole were much better passers than their AFL equivalent and combining the two leagues had an immediate impact in lowered average league stats. It wasn't until the NFL instituted some serious rules changes in 1978 that were we to fully enter into the modern age of football. Before that would happen, however, the two leagues merged completely in 1970 and thus began...
The Age of Defense 1970-1977
C% 51.8
TD% 4.2
INT% 5.5
AY/A 5.1
ANY/A 4.0
With the two leagues now playing each other in the regular season, the talent pool diluted to where the passing game was no longer as wide open as it had been in the early 60's. This, of course, is in exact opposition to the popular opinion of the time that the AFL was more wide open than the stodgy, conservative NFL, but greater minds than I have already disproven this notion. This was also the age of the No Name defense, the Steel Curtain and the Doomsday Defense. Interception rate once again greatly outpaced touchdown rate.
The NFL decided it rather liked the game it had started to see develop in the early 60's and in 1978 they instituted some major rules changes. Two rules changed the passing game dramatically. No contact by DB's beyond 5 yds and offensive lineman could extend their arms and use their hands to block. A new age of football had begun.
The Modern Age 1978-1987
Wait? What? The Modern Age only lasted 10 years? Well, it actually lasted until 2004 but something else was to change the game as well in 1988 as you'll see.
C% 55.3
TD% 4.2
INT% 4.4
AY/A 5.9
ANY/A 4.8
Completion %'s jumped to newfound heights thanks to the new rules that allowed the introduction of the West Coast Offense. TD% didn't budge, but interceptions went way down and the game started opening up again. In 1983, for the first time since before the NFL and AFL joined, the league average AY/A broke 6. The lowest it would ever dip again was to 5.9 on three occasions. After 1985 the interception rate was only going to outpace the touchdown rate one more season - 1992.
The NFL had put the passing game back to the efficiency it had enjoyed in the early 60's. But there was one more rule yet to come that would have a meaningful impact. In 1988 they changed the play clock from 30 seconds to 45 and thus ushered in....
The Post Modern Age 1988-2006
Okay, so it's still the Modern Age, but as you will see, giving both sides of the ball an extra 15 seconds to call in plays and make substitutions had an immediate impact on the game.
C% 57.8
TD% 3.9
INT% 3.4
AY/A 6.1
ANY/A 5.3
This is the nadir of the touchdown rate in the NFL. With more time to substitute players, it got harder to put the ball in the endzone by passing. By the same token, QB's now had more time to read the defenses and so the interception rate made yet another dramatic drop and QB's more often found open receivers.
One other rule was added during this age, but it's affect did not seem significant enough to split off into yet another age. In 1994 it became legal to throw the ball out of bounds once the QB got outside the pocket. The effect of this rule on the stats was to lessen the gap between AY/A and ANY/A from a number that stood between 1.0 to 1.2 down to .7 to .9. The QB now got sacked less often. It also lessened the INT% from around 3.7 to 3.2
Then two teams made suggestions to the NFL that probably had the most far reaching impact on the game ever, ushering in...
The Primadonna QB Age 2007-2014.
The Primadonna QB Age technically started after Bill Polian complained that his QB, Peyton Manning, couldn't find open receivers because New England DB's were abusing the pass interference rules in the 2003 AFCCG. The NFL responded by telling the refs to rigorously enforce pass interference. The next year saw a small rise in some passing stats, but they faded the following two years until the QB's of the same two teams, New England and Indianapolis, convinced the NFL to allow teams to handle their own footballs.
No, I'm not saying the Patriots are cheaters. I'm just saying that from that day forward, the completion rate jumped past 60% and never dipped below it again, having never reached that level before and for no apparent reason. TD% started climbing back above 4%, INT% started dropping to record lows, AY/A and ANY/A started climbing to record levels and never before in the history of the NFL did all these stats suddenly climb without a major change in the game.
I'm saying that change allowed all the teams to inflate the ball to their QB's preference. Not just the Patriots. EVERY NFL TEAM. The effect was dramatic and instantaneous. Since 2007, the TD% has reached 4.2 or better 7 of 8 years. It reached 4.2 or better only 7 times total from 1978 to 2006. The INT% was 3.1 or better 8 of 8 years from 2007. It dipped that low only 5 times in NFL history prior. Every stat across the board did the exact same thing. QB's became like gods. Not just the superstars. The league as a whole improved as if the Greek Gods had descended to play QB for America's game.
Either that or it's global warming.
C% 61.1
TD% 4.3
INT% 2.8
AY/A 6.6
ANY/A 5.8
The leagues average AY/A during this age is higher than all but one year, in 1988, the first year they changed the game clock.
Well, now we have our baseline to answer the Ultimate Queston: Who is the Greatest Playoff QB of All Time?
Bronze----Classical------AFL-------Merger------Modern-----PostMod------Primadonna
1940-49----1950-59----1960-69----1970-77----1978-87----1988-2006-----2007-2014
C% 45.0------48.6---------51.7---------51.8----------55.3----------57.8------------61.1
TD% 5.2-------5.0----------5.3-----------4.2------------4.2------------3.9-------------4.3
INT% 8.8------7.0----------5.6-----------5.5------------4.4------------3.4-------------2.8
AY/A 3.4-------4.8----------5.8-----------5.1------------5.9------------6.1-------------6.6
ANY/A * -------3.8----------4.6-----------4.0------------4.8------------5.3-------------5.8
I've crunched the numbers and I can tell you this: Tom Brady and Peyton Manning aren't even the greatest QB's of the Primadonna Age.
Hope you enjoyed part one. Part two will hopefully be ready soon. Until then, enjoy the offseason.
The Ultimate Question seems to come up every year. Who was the greatest playoffs QB of all time? Irrational Brady/Manning, Montana/Marino, Starr/Unitas arguments inevitably ensue. Part of the reason for Football Outsiders advanced metrics is to give us some guidance on measuring the difference between one individual player and the next. Unfortunately, there are several reasons why they cannot help us answer this age old question.
There are currently 27 QB's in the Hall of Fame from the modern era. Football Outsiders advanced metrics only go back to 1989. Therefore, there are only complete statistics for the entire career of one HOF QB: Troy Aikman. There are partial career stats for 6 other HOF QB's. The remaining 20 QB's had careers entirely outside the scope of Football Outsiders advanced metrics.
The game has changed in several ways over the years. Offensive linemen can now use their hands. DB's can't get away with nearly as much as they used to be able to. There didn't use to be a roughing the passer rule and intentional grounding included just throwing the ball out of bounds.
In order to answer the Ultimate Question we need to even out the playing field. Remove the noise, so to speak. For the latter problems, the answer seems simple: compare the greatest QB's to their peers to see how they compare and then use that as a guide to giving us insight into how their stats compare to others of different generations. We can also define each era by looking at patterns across the NFL and how rules changes affected the passing game.
For the former problem, I've attempted to infer a QB's DYAR/gm from certain key stats which we do have for every QB who has ever played the game. Completion %, TD%, INT%, AY/A and ANY/A. It's not perfect, but since it will be 2050 before we have the full stats on Bart Starr, it will have to do. Especially since by that time I'll hopefully be in a stadium in the sky watching Starr and his Packers trying to solve Montana and his 49ers (as opposed to having to watch Seattle's final pass in SB XLVIIII over and over for eternity).
One other thing we need to consider is who qualifies for the discussion of greatest playoffs QB of all time or GPQ. Stats can tell one side of the story, the people who saw the QB play can tell another. For the human qualification, rather than leave it up to a totally uneducated internet poll, I chose only those QB's who are inducted into the HOF and a handful of current QB's who are most likely to be inducted - Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner and Brett Favre. These are the list of QB's from which we will look at the stats and try to answer the Ultimate Question: Who is the greatest playoff QB of all time?
PART ONE: Defining each era of football: How the game changed.
The first major change that affected the QB happened before there even were QB's and it wasn't even a rules change. You see, back in the Stone Age of the NFL, they didn't really throw the ball much and pretty much anyone behind the line was allowed to chuck it if they really felt they just had to. But all that changed after the Chicago Bears annihilated the Washington Redskins 73-0 in the 1940 championship game. The Bears utilized a college formation called the T. Sid Luckman lined up behind center and the game changed forever. Some call this the modern age of football, but I call it the Bronze Age. The modern age was yet to come.
Before I discuss each Age of Football, let's take a look at where the NFL is today. These were the league wide averages for 2014:
C% 62.6% (highest ever)
TD% 4.5 (highest it's been since Football Outsiders started tracking DVOA stats in 1989)
INT% 2.5 (lowest it's ever been)
AY/A 7.0 (first time in NFL history it has reached 7)
ANY/A 6.1 (first time in NFL history it has gone above 6)
Alright, now you have a baseline to compare the present day NFL to each era that came before.
The Bronze Age 1940-1949
C% 45.0
TD% 5.2
INT% 8.8
AY/A 3.4
ANY/A You can't sack what isn't yet an official position.
Not very accurate and didn't pass for much yardage, but they did get more TD's per pass than the modern game does. Not until every team had adopted the QB as an official position did we see things start to improve. Which ushers in our next age:
The Classical Age: 1950-1959
C% 48.6
TD% 5.0
INT% 7.0
AY/A 4.8
ANY/A 3.78
With a full time QB, the NFL saw the passing game start to improve. The days of league wide TD%'s above 6 were over however. Then came the next big change.
The AFL Age 1960-1969
The AFL came onto the scene in 1960. It's stats are not included here. The two leagues merged in 1966, but did not start playing each other during the regular season until 1970. During this time, the talent pool of the NFL was being syphoned off by the AFL.
Prior to 1966, the NFL QB was just hitting his stride. Completion %'s were never to dip below 50% again. From 1963 to 1965, for the first time in NFL history, QB's threw TD's at a higher rate than they threw INT's. AY/A was to stay over 6 from 1962 to1965. The passing game was really opening up. The merger changed all that. After 1966, every stat except completion % dropped off as the talent pool was diluted by the inclusion of the former AFL players.
This is what the NFL looked like for the entire decade:
C% 51.7
TD% 5.3
INT% 5.6
AY/A 5.8
ANY/A 4.6
This is what the NFL looked like from 1960-1965 when the AFL was draiing its talent:
C% 51.6
TD% 5.5
INT% 5.8
AYA 5.9
ANYA 4.7
This is what happened after the merger, but before inter league play:
C% 51.7
TD% 4.9
INT% 5.3
AYA 5.6
ANYA 4.5
The AFL's reputation for more wide open football wasn't actually true. NFL QB's threw further per attempt and on the whole were much better passers than their AFL equivalent and combining the two leagues had an immediate impact in lowered average league stats. It wasn't until the NFL instituted some serious rules changes in 1978 that were we to fully enter into the modern age of football. Before that would happen, however, the two leagues merged completely in 1970 and thus began...
The Age of Defense 1970-1977
C% 51.8
TD% 4.2
INT% 5.5
AY/A 5.1
ANY/A 4.0
With the two leagues now playing each other in the regular season, the talent pool diluted to where the passing game was no longer as wide open as it had been in the early 60's. This, of course, is in exact opposition to the popular opinion of the time that the AFL was more wide open than the stodgy, conservative NFL, but greater minds than I have already disproven this notion. This was also the age of the No Name defense, the Steel Curtain and the Doomsday Defense. Interception rate once again greatly outpaced touchdown rate.
The NFL decided it rather liked the game it had started to see develop in the early 60's and in 1978 they instituted some major rules changes. Two rules changed the passing game dramatically. No contact by DB's beyond 5 yds and offensive lineman could extend their arms and use their hands to block. A new age of football had begun.
The Modern Age 1978-1987
Wait? What? The Modern Age only lasted 10 years? Well, it actually lasted until 2004 but something else was to change the game as well in 1988 as you'll see.
C% 55.3
TD% 4.2
INT% 4.4
AY/A 5.9
ANY/A 4.8
Completion %'s jumped to newfound heights thanks to the new rules that allowed the introduction of the West Coast Offense. TD% didn't budge, but interceptions went way down and the game started opening up again. In 1983, for the first time since before the NFL and AFL joined, the league average AY/A broke 6. The lowest it would ever dip again was to 5.9 on three occasions. After 1985 the interception rate was only going to outpace the touchdown rate one more season - 1992.
The NFL had put the passing game back to the efficiency it had enjoyed in the early 60's. But there was one more rule yet to come that would have a meaningful impact. In 1988 they changed the play clock from 30 seconds to 45 and thus ushered in....
The Post Modern Age 1988-2006
Okay, so it's still the Modern Age, but as you will see, giving both sides of the ball an extra 15 seconds to call in plays and make substitutions had an immediate impact on the game.
C% 57.8
TD% 3.9
INT% 3.4
AY/A 6.1
ANY/A 5.3
This is the nadir of the touchdown rate in the NFL. With more time to substitute players, it got harder to put the ball in the endzone by passing. By the same token, QB's now had more time to read the defenses and so the interception rate made yet another dramatic drop and QB's more often found open receivers.
One other rule was added during this age, but it's affect did not seem significant enough to split off into yet another age. In 1994 it became legal to throw the ball out of bounds once the QB got outside the pocket. The effect of this rule on the stats was to lessen the gap between AY/A and ANY/A from a number that stood between 1.0 to 1.2 down to .7 to .9. The QB now got sacked less often. It also lessened the INT% from around 3.7 to 3.2
Then two teams made suggestions to the NFL that probably had the most far reaching impact on the game ever, ushering in...
The Primadonna QB Age 2007-2014.
The Primadonna QB Age technically started after Bill Polian complained that his QB, Peyton Manning, couldn't find open receivers because New England DB's were abusing the pass interference rules in the 2003 AFCCG. The NFL responded by telling the refs to rigorously enforce pass interference. The next year saw a small rise in some passing stats, but they faded the following two years until the QB's of the same two teams, New England and Indianapolis, convinced the NFL to allow teams to handle their own footballs.
No, I'm not saying the Patriots are cheaters. I'm just saying that from that day forward, the completion rate jumped past 60% and never dipped below it again, having never reached that level before and for no apparent reason. TD% started climbing back above 4%, INT% started dropping to record lows, AY/A and ANY/A started climbing to record levels and never before in the history of the NFL did all these stats suddenly climb without a major change in the game.
I'm saying that change allowed all the teams to inflate the ball to their QB's preference. Not just the Patriots. EVERY NFL TEAM. The effect was dramatic and instantaneous. Since 2007, the TD% has reached 4.2 or better 7 of 8 years. It reached 4.2 or better only 7 times total from 1978 to 2006. The INT% was 3.1 or better 8 of 8 years from 2007. It dipped that low only 5 times in NFL history prior. Every stat across the board did the exact same thing. QB's became like gods. Not just the superstars. The league as a whole improved as if the Greek Gods had descended to play QB for America's game.
Either that or it's global warming.
C% 61.1
TD% 4.3
INT% 2.8
AY/A 6.6
ANY/A 5.8
The leagues average AY/A during this age is higher than all but one year, in 1988, the first year they changed the game clock.
Well, now we have our baseline to answer the Ultimate Queston: Who is the Greatest Playoff QB of All Time?
Bronze----Classical------AFL-------Merger------Modern-----PostMod------Primadonna
1940-49----1950-59----1960-69----1970-77----1978-87----1988-2006-----2007-2014
C% 45.0------48.6---------51.7---------51.8----------55.3----------57.8------------61.1
TD% 5.2-------5.0----------5.3-----------4.2------------4.2------------3.9-------------4.3
INT% 8.8------7.0----------5.6-----------5.5------------4.4------------3.4-------------2.8
AY/A 3.4-------4.8----------5.8-----------5.1------------5.9------------6.1-------------6.6
ANY/A * -------3.8----------4.6-----------4.0------------4.8------------5.3-------------5.8
I've crunched the numbers and I can tell you this: Tom Brady and Peyton Manning aren't even the greatest QB's of the Primadonna Age.
Hope you enjoyed part one. Part two will hopefully be ready soon. Until then, enjoy the offseason.
