ATL vs. SEA Receiving Core

[AbsolutNET]

:177692: isnt this obvious? for a board who has talked about "Falcons can't run the ball all they can do is pass!" you had to make up a chart that they had more opurtunities? :34853_doh:

Keeper, after browsing through your post history I'd like to just say this one thing: No one is forcing you to be here.

Thanks.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Sherman and Earl Thomas being one of my favorite players/safeties are the only ones that worry me. I think Browner and Chancellor can be had.

 

[kidhawk]

Sherman and Earl Thomas being one of my favorite players/safeties are the only ones that worry me. I think Browner and Chancellor can be had.

Sure, you can catch a pass or even a few passes on Kam, but when he lowers the boom on a player, their arms tend to get shorter for the rest of the game.

 

[Shock2k]

So basically your saying if the Falcons were to swap players with the Hawks that they'd get the same or similar results?

Ok for arguments sake let's say this was reveresed. Taking away that you had a White/Jones but still did not adjust your pass/run differential (Preferring Lynch). With the numbers I see, I would expect them to close, yes. BUT, there is another large difference the total pass attempt distribution (and even more for TD's) for Atlanta is heavily weighted to your top 3 Recievers + Jaquizz.

Where the Seattle offense has more of a pass distribution beyond thier 2WR's and 1 Slot. Including Robinson(RB), McCoy (TE#2), Turbin (RB#2), which would skew the numbers.

With that said, yes the general argument would be the numbers would be the same taking into acount the 4.2% better completion percentage that Ryan holds over Wilson.

I know it is your post but I completely disagree with you. If RW is better than Matt Ryan then he is doing more with his WR than Ryan is. So you swap receivers maybe RW's numbers skyrocket and so does the WRs whereas Matt Ryan's AND Rice's, Tates etc numbers go way down.......

The numbers ONLY show that we get about the same amount of efficiency out of our WRs as Atlanta does

I didn't compare Matt Ryan to Russell Wilson, I'm comparing receiver effeciency, something I can compare, as once the ball is in the air, from both passers mainting relatively similiar completion percentages, I can make a reasonable assumption between the effectiveness of the receivers.

We have very good receivers, we've all seen Golden, Rice, and Baldwin make amazing catches throughout the year. This thought started me down this road, as I was wondering how would you make the argument against Atlanta's receivers, and the rest is the list above.

 

[mikeak]

I assume you see how a different qb would effect the efficency numbers of wr's right?

Jones may be open 100 / 100 times but Matt Ryan only hits him 70 times. On the other hand Tate may have an extremly small window where the ball can go and RW hits it every single time and Tate catches the ball 70% of the time whereas Ryan would miss it 50% of the time and then a 70% catch rate would be a horrible number......

You can't say putting a WR on a different team would give them about the same numbers because while you don't compare the qb's the WR numbers are tied to who throws the ball.

What your numbers show is that when Seattle passes the ball you can expect as much of a threat as when Atlanta passes the ball

 

[CANHawk]

Sherman and Earl Thomas being one of my favorite players/safeties are the only ones that worry me. I think Browner and Chancellor can be had.

Sure, you can catch a pass or even a few passes on Kam, but when he lowers the boom on a player, their arms tend to get shorter for the rest of the game.

Very true.

We also play a team game on the back end. It isn't just 4 guys running around doing their own thing back there. You're not going to exploit BB just because he's less talented in coverage than Sherman. We set up the system to allow BB to play to his strengths (and damn is he strong). Ditto for Kam.

Sherman is a stud and we can leave him on an island on his side of the field. He's fast enough and athletic enough that he doesn't need help over the top. He's Revis with a mouth. That allows Kam to play up closer to the LOS and play almost like a SS/LB hybrid style where he can lower the boom on any suckas that dare try to catch a ball in his general vacinity (see Davis, Vernon; Witten, Jason or Heap, Todd for evidence). Earl Thomas is one of the fastest moving people in the league. He can move from center field to the sideline in the blink of an eye. That's why we can leave him as a single high safety over the top. Brandon Browner doesn't have Sherman's speed or quickness, but he is a straight up thug in press coverage. Knowing that we have Earl Thomas over the top to clean up anything that might slip past, Browner is free to beat the crap out of recievers within 5 yards (...okay more like 6, maybe 7 yards). Not that he's even in the same league as Atlanta's big boy recievers, but look at what Browner and Thomas did to Pierre Garcon last week, especially on ET's pick. By the end of that game, BB had Garcon so frustrated that he faked a booboo just to get of the field.

Put all those factors together, and add a very fast movng Bobby Wagner patrolling the middle, and Seattle is an extremely difficult team to pass the ball on whether it's left, right, deep, short or whatever. The only piece that worries me is nickel DB Marcus Trufant on whoever's in the slot. I mean, I love the dude, but he's over the hill. If we're to be exposed, that's where it will happen. God I wish Walter Thurmond could stay healthy...

 

[Shock2k]

I assume you see how a different qb would effect the efficency numbers of wr's right?

Jones may be open 100 / 100 times but Matt Ryan only hits him 70 times. On the other hand Tate may have an extremly small window where the ball can go and RW hits it every single time and Tate catches the ball 70% of the time whereas Ryan would miss it 50% of the time and then a 70% catch rate would be a horrible number......

You can't say putting a WR on a different team would give them about the same numbers because while you don't compare the qb's the WR numbers are tied to who throws the ball.

What your numbers show is that when Seattle passes the ball you can expect as much of a threat as when Atlanta passes the ball

I see what your saying. Yes, I totally agree. From a "how hard was it to catch" perspective, "how well was it thrown", or tipped balls, or any of those other factors of course are not in consideration. Though it is not a statistical leap to say that the averages may come out close if you swapped receivers (though admittedly it is a leap, which is why I started that statement with "for arguments sake...")

With that said, I think there these arguments can be extended around who has better pass distribution. I would argue that Seattle has better pass distribution than Atlanta. Though does Seattle have better distribution because Matt Ryan in general does not need to go further down his progressions than Wilson? Or, is it a better scheme/focus in distribution between the two teams? Again I'm not sure, I have not seen a lot of Atlanta games this year.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Sherman and Earl Thomas being one of my favorite players/safeties are the only ones that worry me. I think Browner and Chancellor can be had.

Sure, you can catch a pass or even a few passes on Kam, but when he lowers the boom on a player, their arms tend to get shorter for the rest of the game.

Very true.

We also play a team game on the back end. It isn't just 4 guys running around doing their own thing back there. You're not going to exploit BB just because he's less talented in coverage than Sherman. We set up the system to allow BB to play to his strengths (and damn is he strong). Ditto for Kam.

Sherman is a stud and we can leave him on an island on his side of the field. He's fast enough and athletic enough that he doesn't need help over the top. He's Revis with a mouth. That allows Kam to play up closer to the LOS and play almost like a SS/LB hybrid style where he can lower the boom on any suckas that dare try to catch a ball in his general vacinity (see Davis, Vernon; Witten, Jason or Heap, Todd for evidence). Earl Thomas is one of the fastest moving people in the league. He can move from center field to the sideline in the blink of an eye. That's why we can leave him as a single high safety over the top. Brandon Browner doesn't have Sherman's speed or quickness, but he is a straight up thug in press coverage. Knowing that we have Earl Thomas over the top to clean up anything that might slip past, Browner is free to beat the crap out of recievers within 5 yards (...okay more like 6, maybe 7 yards). Not that he's even in the same league as Atlanta's big boy recievers, but look at what Browner and Thomas did to Pierre Garcon last week, especially on ET's pick. By the end of that game, BB had Garcon so frustrated that he faked a booboo just to get of the field.

Put all those factors together, and add a very fast movng Bobby Wagner patrolling the middle, and Seattle is an extremely difficult team to pass the ball on whether it's left, right, deep, short or whatever. The only piece that worries me is nickel DB Marcus Trufant on whoever's in the slot. I mean, I love the dude, but he's over the hill. If we're to be exposed, that's where it will happen. God I wish Walter Thurmond could stay healthy...

Um, Sherman is great but not on Revis level IMO. Revis has a knowledge of the game Sherman doesn't and plays a chess match with opposing QB's. Sherman is also not even close to being as good as Revis in zone but in terms of press/man to man coverage their about even. I also thought you guys played stacked the box with 8 and gave a lot of single high safety looks? Correct me if i'm wrong. I don't understand how playing a team game would stop Browner from getting beat 1 on 1 in that situation? Let's say he gets beat on a slant route by Julio Jones in one on one? I don't think Earl Thomas has the closing speed to catch Julio in the open field.

 

[CANHawk]

Sherman and Earl Thomas being one of my favorite players/safeties are the only ones that worry me. I think Browner and Chancellor can be had.

Sure, you can catch a pass or even a few passes on Kam, but when he lowers the boom on a player, their arms tend to get shorter for the rest of the game.

Very true.

We also play a team game on the back end. It isn't just 4 guys running around doing their own thing back there. You're not going to exploit BB just because he's less talented in coverage than Sherman. We set up the system to allow BB to play to his strengths (and damn is he strong). Ditto for Kam.

Sherman is a stud and we can leave him on an island on his side of the field. He's fast enough and athletic enough that he doesn't need help over the top. He's Revis with a mouth. That allows Kam to play up closer to the LOS and play almost like a SS/LB hybrid style where he can lower the boom on any suckas that dare try to catch a ball in his general vacinity (see Davis, Vernon; Witten, Jason or Heap, Todd for evidence). Earl Thomas is one of the fastest moving people in the league. He can move from center field to the sideline in the blink of an eye. That's why we can leave him as a single high safety over the top. Brandon Browner doesn't have Sherman's speed or quickness, but he is a straight up thug in press coverage. Knowing that we have Earl Thomas over the top to clean up anything that might slip past, Browner is free to beat the crap out of recievers within 5 yards (...okay more like 6, maybe 7 yards). Not that he's even in the same league as Atlanta's big boy recievers, but look at what Browner and Thomas did to Pierre Garcon last week, especially on ET's pick. By the end of that game, BB had Garcon so frustrated that he faked a booboo just to get of the field.

Put all those factors together, and add a very fast movng Bobby Wagner patrolling the middle, and Seattle is an extremely difficult team to pass the ball on whether it's left, right, deep, short or whatever. The only piece that worries me is nickel DB Marcus Trufant on whoever's in the slot. I mean, I love the dude, but he's over the hill. If we're to be exposed, that's where it will happen. God I wish Walter Thurmond could stay healthy...

Um, Sherman is great but not on Revis level IMO. Revis has a knowledge of the game Sherman doesn't and plays a chess match with opposing QB's. Sherman is also not even close to being as good as Revis in zone but in terms of press/man to man coverage their about even. I also thought you guys played stacked the box with 8 and gave a lot of single high safety looks? Correct me if i'm wrong. I don't understand how playing a team game would stop Browner from getting beat 1 on 1 in that situation? Let's say he gets beat on a slant route by Julio Jones in one on one? I don't think Earl Thomas has the closing speed to catch Julio in the open field.

Yes actually, he is on Revis's level. He is a 6'3" Derelle Revis that talks shit non stop. You'll see. Then you'll believe.

As for Earl's speed... you'll also see. That kid as a ballistic missile. But for Julio to get open on the slant route, he'll have to either wait for BB to play off or beat the jam, then he'll also have MLB Bobby Wagner to contend with (who often plays a short zone over the middle). The thing with the slant route is it's all about the YAC. Julio might very well make the completion (hell, he might make a bunch) but he's not going very far with it. ET will close in and make the tackle for a short gain. You guys can play dink n dunk ball if you want, but it's not really your style.

 

[mikeak]

I assume you see how a different qb would effect the efficency numbers of wr's right?

Jones may be open 100 / 100 times but Matt Ryan only hits him 70 times. On the other hand Tate may have an extremly small window where the ball can go and RW hits it every single time and Tate catches the ball 70% of the time whereas Ryan would miss it 50% of the time and then a 70% catch rate would be a horrible number......

You can't say putting a WR on a different team would give them about the same numbers because while you don't compare the qb's the WR numbers are tied to who throws the ball.

What your numbers show is that when Seattle passes the ball you can expect as much of a threat as when Atlanta passes the ball

I see what your saying. Yes, I totally agree. From a "how hard was it to catch" perspective, "how well was it thrown", or tipped balls, or any of those other factors of course are not in consideration. Though it is not a statistical leap to say that the averages may come out close if you swapped receivers (though admittedly it is a leap, which is why I started that statement with "for arguments sake...")

With that said, I think there these arguments can be extended around who has better pass distribution. I would argue that Seattle has better pass distribution than Atlanta. Though does Seattle have better distribution because Matt Ryan in general does not need to go further down his progressions than Wilson? Or, is it a better scheme/focus in distribution between the two teams? Again I'm not sure, I have not seen a lot of Atlanta games this year.

Honestly I think Atlanta's WRs are way better at getting separation / by having two elite receivers you get more man-to-man and RW would be a runaway ROY with Jones and White on the team.... Add to that a HOF TE and my conclusion of the numbers is also that Matt Ryan isn't all that

 

[Twisted]

U could say the level of production from the ATL weapons is acquired because of how many opportunities they give those guys to make big plays.

for the lack of a productive rushing game which all know favors the other but somehow in their case their effective passing does not open the run?


should be interesting I hope everyone is fully rested and primed up for this one... :thirishdrinkers:

 

[camdawg]

Um, Sherman is great but not on Revis level IMO. Revis has a knowledge of the game Sherman doesn't and plays a chess match with opposing QB's. Sherman is also not even close to being as good as Revis in zone but in terms of press/man to man coverage their about even. I also thought you guys played stacked the box with 8 and gave a lot of single high safety looks? Correct me if i'm wrong. I don't understand how playing a team game would stop Browner from getting beat 1 on 1 in that situation? Let's say he gets beat on a slant route by Julio Jones in one on one? I don't think Earl Thomas has the closing speed to catch Julio in the open field.

A healthy Revis MIGHT be slightly better, but it's closer than you think. And Sherman has that understanding of the game you mention, better than you think. He's a smart dude, a Stanford grad, and he started his college career playing wide receiver for a couple of seasons, so he does understand what QB's and WR's are thinking.

To help illustrate just how good Sherman has become in such a short time:

Darrelle Revis 2007 rookie year-16 games: 3 picks, 17 passes defended, 1 forced fumble
Richard Sherman 2011 rookie year-TEN games: 4 picks, 17 passes defended, 1 forced fumble

Darrelle Revis 2nd year-5 picks, 16 passes defended, 1 forced fumble
Richard Sherman 2nd year-8 picks, 24 passes defended, 3 forced fumbles

 

[hawkfan68]

Tony Gonzalez is the biggest threat and concern, IMO. Seahawks are weak against TE and this is the best one they have faced all year. They had trouble with Pettigrew from Detroit. Gonzalez is a top 3 TE in the league and Ryan has shown that he will go to him at will. They don't have to go to Jones or White. They can still ride the Gonzo or use Douglas (Bess destroyed the Seahawks when they played in Miami). I'm not worried about the corners or the vertical game, it's the middle pass attack that is problematic for the Hawks.

 

[hawker84]

Sherman and Earl Thomas being one of my favorite players/safeties are the only ones that worry me. I think Browner and Chancellor can be had.

so were the other 9 teams we've played "hadder" broke...? in other words they've went up against some of the best recievers in the league this year, and none of them seemed to have had their way with them, what makes your guys special.. either your guys are far and above the best recievers in the league, or our guys are pretty good...

 

[TJH]

White and Julio are miles better than any WR we have.

 

[NinjaKixx]

I will say that Sidney rice is definitely underrated this season. The guy is a beast and would definitely have over 1,000 yards in a traditional offense.

I will also say, Golden Tate is who he is and will probably never be much more.

Doug Baldwin has some tremendous upside. He had like 800 yards last year as a rookie. He has the talent.

 

[Starrman44]

Um, Sherman is great but not on Revis level IMO. Revis has a knowledge of the game Sherman doesn't and plays a chess match with opposing QB's. Sherman is also not even close to being as good as Revis in zone but in terms of press/man to man coverage their about even.

And with this you lose any shred of credibility you had. Sherman has the advantage of playing Major College Football as a receiver. He's bated several QB's this year, including Tom Brady.

Revis is great, but I don't think there is nearly the separation between the two you think that there is. Saying Revis has a knowledge of the game that Sherman doesn't is ridiculous, imo.

 

[keepertd]

:177692: isnt this obvious? for a board who has talked about "Falcons can't run the ball all they can do is pass!" you had to make up a chart that they had more opurtunities? :34853_doh:

Keeper, after browsing through your post history I'd like to just say this one thing: No one is forcing you to be here.

Thanks.

all i did was point out what should be obvious, its like stating the fact Seattle runs more run plays than the Falcons do...no kidding because that's playing with the teams strength...

 

[Dirty Bird]

Um, Sherman is great but not on Revis level IMO. Revis has a knowledge of the game Sherman doesn't and plays a chess match with opposing QB's. Sherman is also not even close to being as good as Revis in zone but in terms of press/man to man coverage their about even.

And with this you lose any shred of credibility you had. Sherman has the advantage of playing Major College Football as a receiver. He's bated several QB's this year, including Tom Brady.

Revis is great, but I don't think there is nearly the separation between the two you think that there is. Saying Revis has a knowledge of the game that Sherman doesn't is ridiculous, imo.

No it's not ridiculous because he does. Revis is just as good if not a better press corner than Sherman and his understanding of the game pre-snap to know where the ball is coming is what makes him great. I'd like to see Richard Sherman's stats in zone as opposed to bump and run. He baited Brady on a "screw it" underthrow? I think not. I'd also like to see where he baited these other QB's you speak of. This is what baiting a QB entails. You can see the huge cushion Asante gives him from the start. After the snap Palmer looks to the left and everything is covered, he knows he has a WR on an out route on the other side of the field. Because of the huge cushion Asante gave before the ball was snapped Palmer doesn't expect Asante to be in position to pick the ball off but being the ballhawk that he is and knowing that on 3rd and 6 an out route is probably headed his way he jumps the route and returns it for 6. That is baiting a QB, not running stride for stride with a WR and picking off an underthrown ball.
[youtube]WvnqotMZB5s[/youtube]

 

[Timberhawk]

One thing is obvious, great chart Shock2k. It has spurred a lot of really interesting dialogue which is a lot of fun to speculate on. I, like the rest of you, am excited to see how it all plays out on Sunday and who's theory ends up holding water. Ultimately it will come back to the QB's. If Russ got out all the jitters last week and plays like he did the second half of the season he and his receivers will be just fine. Of course, if Ryan plays well his receivers will be in good shape too. Go Hawks!

Thanks for the time creating and sharing this!