endzorn
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Had a sick day from work so piled some notes this morning and this afternoon on Green Bay's final three regular season games.
Packers base defense is a 3-4 with a single high safety. Against Buffalo and Tampa Bay they ran this defense in almost all first down and short yardage situations. Against Detroit Green Bay ran so many different formations it was hard to keep track and it apparently confused the Lions.
In nickel situations the Packers will line up in something similar to the Giants old NASCAR package. Inside they rush Jones and Neal and they'll stand up a wide variety of rushers outside, but this has traditionally been where Matthews makes his money as the right side rusher.
Matthews lines up primarily as the ROLB but he did line up in all four LB positions. The most interesting thing I noticed in three games is that teams are most effective running the ball when they go right to him. He almost always rushes too far upfield and especially in the Lions and Bills games the rush offense was most effective exploiting him. He is an outstanding upfield rusher and he has some solid counter moves that abused Tampa and Buffalo in passing downs.
AJ Hawk doesn't get many snaps and that is for good reason. In the base defense he gets caught in traffic and rarely makes plays. When Matthews plays either inside LB spot he is the best LB on the field. He has arms like an orangutan and is very difficult to exploit as a pass defender in a 4 under zone.
Generally they are a solid tackling team and they will gang tackle. Late in games this slips as the back seven tires. They have a big rotation on the line to keep guys fresh, although some of those guys are LBs. Their CBs are also willing tacklers, much like ours.
Their secondary was rarely tested in the three games so it's difficult to tell either how Seattle will do or how Seattle will attack. Clinton-Dix is their single high safety in cover 1 man and cover 3 zone. Clinton-Dix does not have the range of Thomas, but he's not a liability. Their corners are solid in man coverage and they'll man up to bring 6 rushers, occasionally.
I'm curious to see if they attack us the way they attacked the Lions. They often had two guys with a hand on the ground on early downs and they'd bring 9 into the box. Granted, the Lions had a 3TE formation with only the X receiver lined up outside the numbers and a 2TE formation with the Z receiver lined tight and again the X lined up wide. They did it a ton and had very little success. The Packers were very successful rushing until the Lions started to spread them out.
The Bucs were terrible offensively so it was tough to learn anything other than that the Packers were not scared of their QB so they took a lot of chances rushing the passer. The Bills had success running the football at Matthews and generally had better success on early downs by throwing short or running the ball. Against the Bills and Lions the Packers seemed to play more cover 1 man which left a lot of defenders with their back to scrimmage. No way that happens against us. Because Matthews is such a hard upfield rusher I think Wilson would run all day. Peppers is a more disciplined rusher and rarely leaves a lane for the QB to escape.
Offensively the Packers love to rush off tackle with Lacy and he is a monster. It's seems to me that he keeps his pads pretty high as he runs through initial traffic, but when he gets to the secondary he lowers his shoulders and blows people up. He doesn't have the change of direction that Lynch has, but he has great balance and power. You HAVE to make the first tackle or he will start bowling people over. If you don't tackle him you'd better make him change direction and slow down. With a head of steam he reminds me of Ironhead Heyward. It's fun to see him blast people. Tackling is key. One missed tackle can turn a one yard run into a 20 yard run.
Rodgers mobility might be less impacted by his injury than I thought. Although he did have some huge first down runs here and there, his most important asset is his ability to move in traffic in the pocket and make the throws. It's definitely nice that he doesn't have the same ability to pick up 12-15 yard runs against man defense, but ultimately he likes to slide around and throw darts. He is deadly accurate outside the numbers.
The Lions and Bucs hardly bothered him with their pass rush, but I found something very interesting about Buffalo. Number 55, Hughes is a standup RDE who gave Rodgers fits the whole game. Rodgers was never comfortable because Hughes was constantly around his blindside and he could feel that pressure. There were way more inaccurate throws against Buffalo than against Tampa and Detroit. The reason this is interesting is because from play one he reminded me of a poor mans Bruce Irvin. If you ask me for one serious key to this game I'm saying Irvin getting blindside pressure could be a key. Irvin takes less upfield chances than he did in previous years and he finds ways to move the QB off his spot without having to rush deep around the tackle. That's exactly what Hughes did and all game I thought, "That's Irvin." When Rodgers has pressure in his face he moves around deftly and makes throws no one else can make. Against Buffalo, Hughes was constantly making him move and he wasn't nearly as accurate.
Their offensive line is underrated and their RG Lang looks like a stud. I thought he played Suh as well as anyone could hope, often stonewalling him in one on one pass blocking. Their OTs are solid, but their LT struggled with Hughes. All in all they give Rodgers a lot of time and against the Lions, a good defense, he was mostly comfortable back there.
Receivers go without saying, but Buffalo limited their impact by forcing the issue in the pocket. Cobb and Nelson are as good a 1-2 combo as I can think of and Adams has come on lately. The last three weeks Nelson dropped a few key passes. Cobb is a dude. He has great hands, comes in and out of breaks like a lightning bolt and is scared of no one. I didn't see a lot out of their TEs, but they do line Quarles up as an Hback in run downs and he often is tasked with blocking second level defenders. He's been a pretty reliable outlet for Rodgers when pressure collapses the pocket.
Pretty interesting to watch their defense. I think they're better than what I remembered from week one, but they played three weak offenses. I think we can attack their base defense with Lynch. We might struggle against their nickel line because they have some serious rushers and we aren't great pass blockers.
I'll watch more as the week goes and give more uneducated analysis.
Packers base defense is a 3-4 with a single high safety. Against Buffalo and Tampa Bay they ran this defense in almost all first down and short yardage situations. Against Detroit Green Bay ran so many different formations it was hard to keep track and it apparently confused the Lions.
In nickel situations the Packers will line up in something similar to the Giants old NASCAR package. Inside they rush Jones and Neal and they'll stand up a wide variety of rushers outside, but this has traditionally been where Matthews makes his money as the right side rusher.
Matthews lines up primarily as the ROLB but he did line up in all four LB positions. The most interesting thing I noticed in three games is that teams are most effective running the ball when they go right to him. He almost always rushes too far upfield and especially in the Lions and Bills games the rush offense was most effective exploiting him. He is an outstanding upfield rusher and he has some solid counter moves that abused Tampa and Buffalo in passing downs.
AJ Hawk doesn't get many snaps and that is for good reason. In the base defense he gets caught in traffic and rarely makes plays. When Matthews plays either inside LB spot he is the best LB on the field. He has arms like an orangutan and is very difficult to exploit as a pass defender in a 4 under zone.
Generally they are a solid tackling team and they will gang tackle. Late in games this slips as the back seven tires. They have a big rotation on the line to keep guys fresh, although some of those guys are LBs. Their CBs are also willing tacklers, much like ours.
Their secondary was rarely tested in the three games so it's difficult to tell either how Seattle will do or how Seattle will attack. Clinton-Dix is their single high safety in cover 1 man and cover 3 zone. Clinton-Dix does not have the range of Thomas, but he's not a liability. Their corners are solid in man coverage and they'll man up to bring 6 rushers, occasionally.
I'm curious to see if they attack us the way they attacked the Lions. They often had two guys with a hand on the ground on early downs and they'd bring 9 into the box. Granted, the Lions had a 3TE formation with only the X receiver lined up outside the numbers and a 2TE formation with the Z receiver lined tight and again the X lined up wide. They did it a ton and had very little success. The Packers were very successful rushing until the Lions started to spread them out.
The Bucs were terrible offensively so it was tough to learn anything other than that the Packers were not scared of their QB so they took a lot of chances rushing the passer. The Bills had success running the football at Matthews and generally had better success on early downs by throwing short or running the ball. Against the Bills and Lions the Packers seemed to play more cover 1 man which left a lot of defenders with their back to scrimmage. No way that happens against us. Because Matthews is such a hard upfield rusher I think Wilson would run all day. Peppers is a more disciplined rusher and rarely leaves a lane for the QB to escape.
Offensively the Packers love to rush off tackle with Lacy and he is a monster. It's seems to me that he keeps his pads pretty high as he runs through initial traffic, but when he gets to the secondary he lowers his shoulders and blows people up. He doesn't have the change of direction that Lynch has, but he has great balance and power. You HAVE to make the first tackle or he will start bowling people over. If you don't tackle him you'd better make him change direction and slow down. With a head of steam he reminds me of Ironhead Heyward. It's fun to see him blast people. Tackling is key. One missed tackle can turn a one yard run into a 20 yard run.
Rodgers mobility might be less impacted by his injury than I thought. Although he did have some huge first down runs here and there, his most important asset is his ability to move in traffic in the pocket and make the throws. It's definitely nice that he doesn't have the same ability to pick up 12-15 yard runs against man defense, but ultimately he likes to slide around and throw darts. He is deadly accurate outside the numbers.
The Lions and Bucs hardly bothered him with their pass rush, but I found something very interesting about Buffalo. Number 55, Hughes is a standup RDE who gave Rodgers fits the whole game. Rodgers was never comfortable because Hughes was constantly around his blindside and he could feel that pressure. There were way more inaccurate throws against Buffalo than against Tampa and Detroit. The reason this is interesting is because from play one he reminded me of a poor mans Bruce Irvin. If you ask me for one serious key to this game I'm saying Irvin getting blindside pressure could be a key. Irvin takes less upfield chances than he did in previous years and he finds ways to move the QB off his spot without having to rush deep around the tackle. That's exactly what Hughes did and all game I thought, "That's Irvin." When Rodgers has pressure in his face he moves around deftly and makes throws no one else can make. Against Buffalo, Hughes was constantly making him move and he wasn't nearly as accurate.
Their offensive line is underrated and their RG Lang looks like a stud. I thought he played Suh as well as anyone could hope, often stonewalling him in one on one pass blocking. Their OTs are solid, but their LT struggled with Hughes. All in all they give Rodgers a lot of time and against the Lions, a good defense, he was mostly comfortable back there.
Receivers go without saying, but Buffalo limited their impact by forcing the issue in the pocket. Cobb and Nelson are as good a 1-2 combo as I can think of and Adams has come on lately. The last three weeks Nelson dropped a few key passes. Cobb is a dude. He has great hands, comes in and out of breaks like a lightning bolt and is scared of no one. I didn't see a lot out of their TEs, but they do line Quarles up as an Hback in run downs and he often is tasked with blocking second level defenders. He's been a pretty reliable outlet for Rodgers when pressure collapses the pocket.
Pretty interesting to watch their defense. I think they're better than what I remembered from week one, but they played three weak offenses. I think we can attack their base defense with Lynch. We might struggle against their nickel line because they have some serious rushers and we aren't great pass blockers.
I'll watch more as the week goes and give more uneducated analysis.
