kearly
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It's early and things will change by late August, but here are some draft bargains that jump out at me:
Running Backs
#7 overall. David Johnson
#13 overall. Jamaal Charles
#18 overall. Eddie Lacy
#22 overall. Thomas Rawls
#48 overall. Dion Lewis
As much as it pains me to say it, Arizona's schedule is a piece of cake. That means that barring an epidemic slate of injuries, you can probably pencil them in for another 13 win season. This means a LOT of touches for David Johnson. Johnson is for me at least arguably the #1 RB of 2016 for fantasy when factoring upside and how safe the pick is. He's basically what Matt Forte used to be. Getting him at #7 is a great way to start a draft.
Jamaal Charles proved last year that he is still Jamaal Charles. He might be the best RB in football when healthy, but can't really be trusted to play 16 games. I think Charles is a steal here because even if he gets injured, his handcuff RBs have been dynamite.
Lacy has never been quite as good as his rep, but he's slimmed down this year and the Packers offense is likely set for a historically great season. I feel very confident about Lacy ending the year as a #1 fantasy RB and middle 2nd round is a great value for that.
Fears about Rawls are dropping him way too much. Todd Gurley is currently the #3 pick, and I'd rather have a healthy Rawls over Gurley. My only real concern about Rawls is that he might lose goal line carries to Alex Collins.
The only thing better than a productive player is a consistent one. Dion Lewis was incredibly efficient at producing 10+ point games last season. For the price of a #3 RB, he's a huge steal.
Wide Receivers
#15 overall. Allen Robinson
#16 overall. Jordy Nelson
#26 overall. Brandon Marshall
#42 overall. Randall Cobb
#47 overall. Doug Baldwin
#87 overall. Steve Smith
#89 overall. DeSean Jackson
#185 overall. Chris Hogan
I get that Jacksonville did a lot of stat padding last season, and that Blake Bortles isn't as good as his fantasy numbers. I get that. But Allen Robinson is an elite WR and having him 10 spots below OBJ and Julio Jones seems like terrific value to me. At worst, he's comparable to DeAndre Hopkins, who like Beckham and Jones ranks in the top 10 picks. With Robinson, you are are getting a 1st round value in round 2.
Jordy isn't quite the bargain that he's been in the past, but that's mostly because WRs are going higher in 2016 than ever before. Still, you look at teams who have the NFL's easiest schedules, and they tend to go on to have monster years. The Panthers last year. The Falcons in 2012. The Patriots in 2007. The Packers have the kind of offense that feasts on bad teams, and they have the easiest sched in the land this year. Jordy will end the year as a top 5 WR in all likelihood.
Brandon Marshall in round three? Sign me up. Granted, the only reason Marshall is this low is because Fitzmagic is still a free agent. Once Fitz signs back, Marshall will probably rise into the teens. Until then, he's an amazing value in the early 3rd round.
Randall Cobb. Yup, he's over-rated and yup he sucked last year. But with the Packers offense sure to go on a tear this year, even over-rated talents like Cobb will post big seasons.
Doug Baldwin. It seems that fantasy drafters are a little slow to buy into the hype with Seattle's new passing offense. Take advantage of it.
With guys like Martavis Bryant on suspension and breakout WRs seemingly nowhere to be found, the late rounds of 2016 look barren. One of the exceptions is Steve Smith, who looked like he still had it early in 2015 before his injury. The Ravens are one of 2016's most obvious bounce back teams, and Smith seems like a safe bet to post starting WR numbers. Basically, if Smith stays healthy you are getting a huge steal with this pick.
Every time I've drafted DeSean Jackson I've regretted it. Even when he's good, he's super inconsistent. That said, he seemed to develop real chemistry with Cousins last season and that makes Jackson a good bet to go over 1000 yards in 2016.
The very late rounds might as well be printed on toilet paper. Most of the guys drafted after round 10 will be hitting waiver wire before the end of September. That said, if there were one player to hold on to from this group, it's Hogan. Belichick has a bit of a history now with taking unheralded 'gritty' WRs from other teams and turning them into massively productive players. New England has been waiting for a guy to step up as a #2 WR for some time and Hogan is a more reliable player than Amendola. Also, Brady is going to be playing pissed off this year. Hogan won't pay off immediately, but by the back half of the season don't be surprised if he's a startable player.
Quarterbacks
#35 overall. Aaron Rodgers
#57 overall. Russell Wilson
#60 overall. Big Ben
#68 overall. Tom Brady
#81 overall. Carson Palmer
This might be the best year yet for QB value. Rodgers is definitely the guy to get, as he faces the NFL's easiest schedule and has an offense that has never been healthier or in better physical shape. You don't have to be a genius to see Rodgers 2016 MVP award coming a mile away. He's going to post monster numbers this year, if he stays healthy.
Wilson is also an MVP candidate, and is a safer bet to stay healthy. The only thing holding back Wilson is that he will probably throw 100 fewer pass attempts over the season than some of his contemporaries, but on a per attempt basis he will likely be the best QB of 2016. A very safe pick if you want to take a QB early.
Big Ben is injury prone, but he's never led a better offense than this one. If he stays healthy he could be a difference making pick at the end of round 5.
Tom Brady *might* miss four games this year depending on his legal strategy. Even if he does, he'll probably still be a monster QB in the other 12 games he'll suit up for. Brady is the kind of QB who plays even better when he's pissed, and right now he's pissed.
Injury risk is important as always for Palmer, but a favorable schedule and an offense that is clicking could make Palmer an MVP also-ran by season's end. It's pretty crazy that you could get a legit MVP candidate with the 81st pick.
Tight ends
#59 overall. Tyler Eifert
#72 overall. Delanie Walker
#88 overall. Ladarius Green
#91 overall. Gary Barnidge
Eifert is the one guy on this list I might regret drafting. His numbers in 2015 were fluky as hell. Most than half of his career 1097 receiving yards over 3 NFL seasons came last year, and 13 of his 15 career TDs came last year. Prior to 2015, he was producing at a Luke Willson type level. So obviously, his Gronk-esque 2015 season seems a bit out of place. That said, Eifert passed the eyeball test with flying colors both in college and during his breakout 2015 season. I suspect that Cincy is going to construct their 2016 game plan around getting the ball to Eifert a lot more, and not just in the red zone. He's only a bargain if he hits his potential, but it should be mentioned that Eifert's potential is second only to the Gronk. This is a risky pick (especially since Eifert is recovering from ankle surgery), but it's also a pick that could get you 2-3 extra wins this season if it pans out.
Walker is no spring chicken, but he's coming off of back to back 800+ yard seasons. Last year he quietly finished 5th among tight ends for scoring, and was only 7 points behind second place Jordan Reed. For a pick this late, it's really hard to argue with a consistent and under-rated starter.
Jared Cook and Ladarius Green are two athletic and talented TEs that are moving to new teams with elite QBs. Even though I love the Packers offense this year, I won't trust Cook until he proves he can play in the NFL. With Green, his QB is only a minor upgrade, however when Green was with San Diego Philip Rivers just never seemed to click with him. Big Ben is missing both Martavis Bryant (suspension) and Heath Miller (retirement), so there's going to be plenty of targets to spread around to his remaining weapons. This is a risky pick but one worth considering especially if Green slips past round 8.
Like Eifert, Barnidge's 2015 season was a complete anomaly. That said, as a Barnidge owner last year I was so impressed with his consistency week to week, even as the Browns trotted out a different starting QB each week. It didn't seem to matter to Barnidge. There's actually seem decent value in the 8th round to compete with Barnidge, but I still like this as a value pick.
It's early and things will change by late August, but here are some draft bargains that jump out at me:
Running Backs
#7 overall. David Johnson
#13 overall. Jamaal Charles
#18 overall. Eddie Lacy
#22 overall. Thomas Rawls
#48 overall. Dion Lewis
As much as it pains me to say it, Arizona's schedule is a piece of cake. That means that barring an epidemic slate of injuries, you can probably pencil them in for another 13 win season. This means a LOT of touches for David Johnson. Johnson is for me at least arguably the #1 RB of 2016 for fantasy when factoring upside and how safe the pick is. He's basically what Matt Forte used to be. Getting him at #7 is a great way to start a draft.
Jamaal Charles proved last year that he is still Jamaal Charles. He might be the best RB in football when healthy, but can't really be trusted to play 16 games. I think Charles is a steal here because even if he gets injured, his handcuff RBs have been dynamite.
Lacy has never been quite as good as his rep, but he's slimmed down this year and the Packers offense is likely set for a historically great season. I feel very confident about Lacy ending the year as a #1 fantasy RB and middle 2nd round is a great value for that.
Fears about Rawls are dropping him way too much. Todd Gurley is currently the #3 pick, and I'd rather have a healthy Rawls over Gurley. My only real concern about Rawls is that he might lose goal line carries to Alex Collins.
The only thing better than a productive player is a consistent one. Dion Lewis was incredibly efficient at producing 10+ point games last season. For the price of a #3 RB, he's a huge steal.
Wide Receivers
#15 overall. Allen Robinson
#16 overall. Jordy Nelson
#26 overall. Brandon Marshall
#42 overall. Randall Cobb
#47 overall. Doug Baldwin
#87 overall. Steve Smith
#89 overall. DeSean Jackson
#185 overall. Chris Hogan
I get that Jacksonville did a lot of stat padding last season, and that Blake Bortles isn't as good as his fantasy numbers. I get that. But Allen Robinson is an elite WR and having him 10 spots below OBJ and Julio Jones seems like terrific value to me. At worst, he's comparable to DeAndre Hopkins, who like Beckham and Jones ranks in the top 10 picks. With Robinson, you are are getting a 1st round value in round 2.
Jordy isn't quite the bargain that he's been in the past, but that's mostly because WRs are going higher in 2016 than ever before. Still, you look at teams who have the NFL's easiest schedules, and they tend to go on to have monster years. The Panthers last year. The Falcons in 2012. The Patriots in 2007. The Packers have the kind of offense that feasts on bad teams, and they have the easiest sched in the land this year. Jordy will end the year as a top 5 WR in all likelihood.
Brandon Marshall in round three? Sign me up. Granted, the only reason Marshall is this low is because Fitzmagic is still a free agent. Once Fitz signs back, Marshall will probably rise into the teens. Until then, he's an amazing value in the early 3rd round.
Randall Cobb. Yup, he's over-rated and yup he sucked last year. But with the Packers offense sure to go on a tear this year, even over-rated talents like Cobb will post big seasons.
Doug Baldwin. It seems that fantasy drafters are a little slow to buy into the hype with Seattle's new passing offense. Take advantage of it.
With guys like Martavis Bryant on suspension and breakout WRs seemingly nowhere to be found, the late rounds of 2016 look barren. One of the exceptions is Steve Smith, who looked like he still had it early in 2015 before his injury. The Ravens are one of 2016's most obvious bounce back teams, and Smith seems like a safe bet to post starting WR numbers. Basically, if Smith stays healthy you are getting a huge steal with this pick.
Every time I've drafted DeSean Jackson I've regretted it. Even when he's good, he's super inconsistent. That said, he seemed to develop real chemistry with Cousins last season and that makes Jackson a good bet to go over 1000 yards in 2016.
The very late rounds might as well be printed on toilet paper. Most of the guys drafted after round 10 will be hitting waiver wire before the end of September. That said, if there were one player to hold on to from this group, it's Hogan. Belichick has a bit of a history now with taking unheralded 'gritty' WRs from other teams and turning them into massively productive players. New England has been waiting for a guy to step up as a #2 WR for some time and Hogan is a more reliable player than Amendola. Also, Brady is going to be playing pissed off this year. Hogan won't pay off immediately, but by the back half of the season don't be surprised if he's a startable player.
Quarterbacks
#35 overall. Aaron Rodgers
#57 overall. Russell Wilson
#60 overall. Big Ben
#68 overall. Tom Brady
#81 overall. Carson Palmer
This might be the best year yet for QB value. Rodgers is definitely the guy to get, as he faces the NFL's easiest schedule and has an offense that has never been healthier or in better physical shape. You don't have to be a genius to see Rodgers 2016 MVP award coming a mile away. He's going to post monster numbers this year, if he stays healthy.
Wilson is also an MVP candidate, and is a safer bet to stay healthy. The only thing holding back Wilson is that he will probably throw 100 fewer pass attempts over the season than some of his contemporaries, but on a per attempt basis he will likely be the best QB of 2016. A very safe pick if you want to take a QB early.
Big Ben is injury prone, but he's never led a better offense than this one. If he stays healthy he could be a difference making pick at the end of round 5.
Tom Brady *might* miss four games this year depending on his legal strategy. Even if he does, he'll probably still be a monster QB in the other 12 games he'll suit up for. Brady is the kind of QB who plays even better when he's pissed, and right now he's pissed.
Injury risk is important as always for Palmer, but a favorable schedule and an offense that is clicking could make Palmer an MVP also-ran by season's end. It's pretty crazy that you could get a legit MVP candidate with the 81st pick.
Tight ends
#59 overall. Tyler Eifert
#72 overall. Delanie Walker
#88 overall. Ladarius Green
#91 overall. Gary Barnidge
Eifert is the one guy on this list I might regret drafting. His numbers in 2015 were fluky as hell. Most than half of his career 1097 receiving yards over 3 NFL seasons came last year, and 13 of his 15 career TDs came last year. Prior to 2015, he was producing at a Luke Willson type level. So obviously, his Gronk-esque 2015 season seems a bit out of place. That said, Eifert passed the eyeball test with flying colors both in college and during his breakout 2015 season. I suspect that Cincy is going to construct their 2016 game plan around getting the ball to Eifert a lot more, and not just in the red zone. He's only a bargain if he hits his potential, but it should be mentioned that Eifert's potential is second only to the Gronk. This is a risky pick (especially since Eifert is recovering from ankle surgery), but it's also a pick that could get you 2-3 extra wins this season if it pans out.
Walker is no spring chicken, but he's coming off of back to back 800+ yard seasons. Last year he quietly finished 5th among tight ends for scoring, and was only 7 points behind second place Jordan Reed. For a pick this late, it's really hard to argue with a consistent and under-rated starter.
Jared Cook and Ladarius Green are two athletic and talented TEs that are moving to new teams with elite QBs. Even though I love the Packers offense this year, I won't trust Cook until he proves he can play in the NFL. With Green, his QB is only a minor upgrade, however when Green was with San Diego Philip Rivers just never seemed to click with him. Big Ben is missing both Martavis Bryant (suspension) and Heath Miller (retirement), so there's going to be plenty of targets to spread around to his remaining weapons. This is a risky pick but one worth considering especially if Green slips past round 8.
Like Eifert, Barnidge's 2015 season was a complete anomaly. That said, as a Barnidge owner last year I was so impressed with his consistency week to week, even as the Browns trotted out a different starting QB each week. It didn't seem to matter to Barnidge. There's actually seem decent value in the 8th round to compete with Barnidge, but I still like this as a value pick.