In Defense of the Offense

[Sgt Largent]

It seems to be a running theme this year, as poor as the offense has looked, to lay blame on the offense even when the defense has given up 4th Quarter drives using the rationale that they must be tired. This primarily due to the fact we have been miserable converting 1st downs in the 4th Quarter.

While I accepted this as a partial answer, it struck me that our defense has been just as culpable in not getting off the field as is our offense for sending them back out there time after time. Turns out both units are pretty upper to middlin’.

OFF plays/drive 5.93 (14th), DEF plays/drive 5.76 (12th).

So I decided to look some stuff up and see if my gut reaction lined up with reality.

Play differential:

Seahawks: +3 (Means offense runs 3 more plays than defense on average per game).

Reference: Rams (-9) worst, Chargers (+9.9) best, Top Teams - Panthers (-.8 ), Patriots (+1.4).

Total plays per game (OFF and DEF) : SEA 124.4 (29th), STL 123.2 (30th), SD 127.3 (20th), CAR 134.4 (4th), NE 132 (10th)

We are ranked 26th in amount of defensive snaps (60.7 per game). Meaning, we are in the top 7 for being on the field the LEAST amount of snaps on defense.

OFFENSE

3 and Out percentage:

SEA 19.82 (9th), MIN 12.39 (1st), BUF 28.57 (32nd), CAR 21.71 (16th), NE 15.38 (5th)

SEA TOP 10 in least amount of 3 and outs.

Here is where the offense makes its hay (in a bad way)

TDs/Drive .153% (30th), TD/FG Ratio .75 (31st), Pts/RZ trip 4.25 (29th), TD/RZ trip .350 (32nd)

Even though I didn’t really defend the offense at all in this post, I wanted to show that sometimes we can be right for the wrong reasons. It’s absolutely true that our offense is letting us down this year, but not because we aren’t making 1st downs in the 4th Quarter. We aren’t scoring TDs at anywhere near even league average in the Red Zone.

That being said, we expect a lot from our defense. If the above meant we never had a lead, I would have no problem absolving the defense of any crimes. Every loss this year came with a 4th Quarter lead. In two of the games, we had a 17pt and a 10pt lead in the 4th Quarter. We have to figure out how to get better on both sides of the ball in high leverage situations.

Or, maybe it’s just the nature of close games week in and week out. If you remember, the (13-3) 2005 Seahawks won 7 games by less than a touchdown. Maybe it’s just our year to lose them.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats ... game/2015/
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ ... atsoff2015

 

[Siouxhawk]

Good post. Hopefully with Lane coming back this week, that will help our ability to close.

 

[Sgt Largent]

Good post. Hopefully with Lane coming back this week, that will help our ability to close.

Thanks Siouxhawk, my fingers are crossed, but if we thought Kam was rusty... I hope Lane can figure it out quick.

Kind of surprised at the lack of interest this thread is generating though. This board was on fire discussing who's fault it was before last Sunday. Maybe wins calm the beast in all of us.

:thirishdrinkers:

 

[Seymour]

Good post. Hopefully with Lane coming back this week, that will help our ability to close.

Thanks Siouxhawk, my fingers are crossed, but if we thought Kam was rusty... I hope Lane can figure it out quick.

Kind of surprised at the lack of interest this thread is generating though. This board was on fire discussing who's fault it was before last Sunday. Maybe wins calm the beast in all of us.

:thirishdrinkers:

Timing is everything, and wining cures all. :th2thumbs:

 

[TwistedHusky]

So let me get this straight,

We are the worst at or near the worst at:

Scoring points per drive

Scoring points when in the RedZone

Scoring TDs

Scoring TDs in the RedZone

But this is a defense of the offense? And even more hilariously, you tried to twist the blame against the defense?

The defense has moved from all world to good. The offense is in Ice Cream Orange Tampa Bay Buc territory, but it isn't all bad because the offense had less possessions than the defense? How are those #s anything but an indictment of the offense?

You do realize that the POINT of the offense is to score POINTS? Right? In fact, teams that do not score TDs generally win nothing, and this team is bottom of the barrel (if not licking the sewage grate) in terms of being able to accomplish that.

Moving back and forth across the field does not matter. As I pointed out before, nobody cares if you run back and forth across the field but fail to score. They have a sport for that already, it is called Soccer.

The defense can no longer carry the offense, and since the offense cannot do its job in most of the games this year, teams come back against us. In games where the offense bothers to score more than a few TDs? We generally win.

This shouldn't be rocket science. Each team has a number at the end of the game. The team with the biggest number wins. Time of possesion, # of possessions and all the rest are secondary to the key question: Did you score enough to win the game in a game where almost all the advantages are slanted towards the offense?

Our defense is nowhere near the bottom of the league, and while it gives up leads in the 4th - teams would not be able to come back against us if the OFFENSE WOULD DO ITS JOB AND SCORE POINTS, thereby widening the gap back again. We lose leads because the offense cannot or does not have an answer for opposing scores. Asking the defense to hold the other team scoreless for 3+ drives with the holes we already know exist is almost folly at some point, especially because it makes you tremendously vulnerable to external forces like missed call or missed call.

It is utterly stupid football to get a small lead and then expect the defense to hold serve for 2+ quarters without giving up more than 10 points. Yet that has happened multiple times with this team. And the failure to produce anything of note in the 2nd half in multiple games is COMPLETELY on the offense.

PS - should be pointed out that many of those "leads" lost by the defense were not due to the offense scoring more than a TD a game, but instead due to scores that were made BY the defense, or by defense + special teams providing the ball in the RZ to the offense. So lets not imply the offense was getting us leads and then watching the defense give it up.

We were barely averaging 1.5 TDs per game until last week and we are still at 1.9 TDs per game. Tied with offensive powerhouses: Cleveland & Detroit, and just behind the mighty Washington, Jacksonville, Baltimore and Tennessee offensive juggernauts.

 

[Anthony!]

So let me get this straight,

We are the worst at or near the worst at:

Scoring points per drive

Scoring points when in the RedZone

Scoring TDs

Scoring TDs in the RedZone

But this is a defense of the offense? And even more hilariously, you tried to twist the blame against the defense?

The defense has moved from all world to good. The offense is in Ice Cream Orange Tampa Bay Buc territory, but it isn't all bad because the offense had less possessions than the defense? How are those #s anything but an indictment of the offense?

You do realize that the POINT of the offense is to score POINTS? Right? In fact, teams that do not score TDs generally win nothing, and this team is bottom of the barrel (if not licking the sewage grate) in terms of being able to accomplish that.

Moving back and forth across the field does not matter. As I pointed out before, nobody cares if you run back and forth across the field but fail to score. They have a sport for that already, it is called Soccer.

The defense can no longer carry the offense, and since the offense cannot do its job in most of the games this year, teams come back against us. In games where the offense bothers to score more than a few TDs? We generally win.

This shouldn't be rocket science. Each team has a number at the end of the game. The team with the biggest number wins. Time of possesion, # of possessions and all the rest are secondary to the key question: Did you score enough to win the game in a game where almost all the advantages are slanted towards the offense?

Our defense is nowhere near the bottom of the league, and while it gives up leads in the 4th - teams would not be able to come back against us if the OFFENSE WOULD DO ITS JOB AND SCORE POINTS, thereby widening the gap back again. We lose leads because the offense cannot or does not have an answer for opposing scores. Asking the defense to hold the other team scoreless for 3+ drives with the holes we already know exist is almost folly at some point, especially because it makes you tremendously vulnerable to external forces like missed call or missed call.

It is utterly stupid football to get a small lead and then expect the defense to hold serve for 2+ quarters without giving up more than 10 points. Yet that has happened multiple times with this team. And the failure to produce anything of note in the 2nd half in multiple games is COMPLETELY on the offense.

but that is how your HC wants it so if it is so stupid blame him. FYI a 2 score lead is not small,.

 

[StoneCold]

Great post SGT. It has to many stats to garner as much attention as it should

Twisted, well that was a long post. In the last two years, any time we give up 27 or more points, we lose. Whose fault is that? Granted our Offense scored more last year, but still when we give up too many points we lose. That says Defense is to blame.

 

[TwistedHusky]

Fair enough. Too long. Just could not believe what I was reading.

Well the short version of the post is this:

The offense is terrible. Bottom of the league, and for the most part, even an average offense would have won those games we lost. Given that, the blame goes on the offense. Because if the offense scores just at standard levels, we are most likely back in the driver's seat for the playoffs.

Winnable games we lost due to the offense include:

Rams
Bengals
Panthers

All are losses by a single TD or less, in games the offense failed to score more than 2 TDs.

It should also be pointed out that given the short fields and defensive takeaways in the Cards game, and because the game was lost by a single TD, the Cards loss was pretty much firmly on the offense as well.

This offense needs to be able to score more than a TD per 2 quarters, especially given we are supposed to have a franchise QB since we are paying franchise QB rates for him.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Pete is a guy who wants to win with defense. We have to get used to that. His methodology is simple: keep the game close and low-scoring, and you have a greater chance to win in the fourth quarter. It's supported by a run-first philosophy that wears teams down by that same fourth quarter and gives you the better chance for that big play.

And the philosophy has suited us well this year, just as it did last year. We've been in position to make that big play every single game. Unfortunately, we haven't made it. But it suggests more of a problem with red-zone scheming than with overall philosophy.

 

[Uncle Si]

Pete is a guy who wants to win with defense. We have to get used to that. His methodology is simple: keep the game close and low-scoring, and you have a greater chance to win in the fourth quarter. It's supported by a run-first philosophy that wears teams down by that same fourth quarter and gives you the better chance for that big play.

And the philosophy has suited us well this year, just as it did last year. We've been in position to make that big play every single game. Unfortunately, we haven't made it. But it suggests more of a problem with red-zone scheming than with overall philosophy.

This..

for all our moaning about how bad we are... we've really been unable to execute just a play or two on either side of the ball to win big games against teams like the Panthers, Bengals, Packers and Cardinals. I think our issues are really that miniscule, as is success and failure in a league this competitive.

 

[Boycie]

Great post SGT. It has to many stats to garner as much attention as it should

Twisted, well that was a long post. In the last two years, any time we give up 27 or more points, we lose. Whose fault is that? Granted our Offense scored more last year, but still when we give up too many points we lose. That says Defense is to blame.

I think it is a combination of the Os fault, and the Ds fault, but mostly the O's, and the reason is time of possession. We used to be able to sustain drives and eat up the clock and keep the D fresh, and keep the ball out of the opposition's hands, and that isn't happening this year. I think that the play calling (especially in Cincy) has a lot to do with it after we get the lead. We seem to change what was making us successful in the first place to eat up the clock, by calling vanilla plays that the other team knows is coming, and it drives me nuts. Why we don't keep the hammer down when we get the lead is beyond me. I guess they want to play safe and not turn the ball over, but when we go 3 and out we do just that. Maybe i'm wrong, but i watch the same games that you guys watch although i am not as savvy as a lot of you here x's and o wise.

 

[Schadie001]

I would be interested to know what the breakdown by half is. Because even if in the second half we have doing a better job of not going 3 and out, or converting more often. What can hurt a defense is being wore out come the 4th quarter. If you offense has done a terrible job for most of the game sustaining drives forcing your defense to be on the field a lot. By the 4th quarter your pass rush isn't going to be as effective which hurts the entire defense.

 

[TwistedHusky]

"It's supported by a run-first philosophy that wears teams down by that same fourth quarter and gives you the better chance for that big play."

Except that is not what we are doing.

It was pointed out multiple times this year that we were passing more than running. And it was not for lack of ability, Rawls was producing way back against the Bengals (boy I was way wrong about that kid) and Lynch was producing several games ago.

But it was not "wearing people out with the run game" to make them vulnerable for the big play, it was trying to make the big play, not succeeding and so putting our QB in long yardage situations that were obvious passing downs - screwing his effectiveness. It was the very push to a pass oriented offense that screwed us, and led to the offensive #s falling into the cellar.

Which again makes my point, it is the offensive missteps not a few defensive mistakes that really are the key components of the failure. Yes the defense could be better, but even a moderately effective offense would have won those games.

Which means this offense has to stop trying to get Russell Wilson the award for most sacks and INTs in the season, and start getting the RBs, who are the true engine of this offense back into the driver seat. Wilson is a tremendous threat as a secondary option but he cannot carry a team on his passing ability with this OC. He needs the playaction to be effective here.

 

[tmobilchawker79]

And I have to add that possessing the ball and "going back and forth across the field" DOES matter. Field position matters a lot, lest you give your opponent a short field to operate. So while we're dinging the offense for not closing the deal with TD's, they should get a small tick mark for moving the ball.

 

[Rob12]

Great post, Largent. This post does a great job of laying facts to feelings. Definitely not as cut and dry as we all once thought.

 

[StoneCold]

Fair enough. Too long. Just could not believe what I was reading.

Well the short version of the post is this:

The offense is terrible. Bottom of the league, and for the most part, even an average offense would have won those games we lost. Given that, the blame goes on the offense. Because if the offense scores just at standard levels, we are most likely back in the driver's seat for the playoffs.

Winnable games we lost due to the offense include:

Rams
Bengals
Panthers

All are losses by a single TD or less, in games the offense failed to score more than 2 TDs.

It should also be pointed out that given the short fields and defensive takeaways in the Cards game, and because the game was lost by a single TD, the Cards loss was pretty much firmly on the offense as well.

This offense needs to be able to score more than a TD per 2 quarters, especially given we are supposed to have a franchise QB since we are paying franchise QB rates for him.

I read the whole post and understand your point of view. Perhaps you didn't understand my point. Even last year, when our offense was doing much better, we lost every game where we allowed 27 or more points.

And the discussion about TOP doesn't hold up when you compare it for each loss. It's within 4 to 5 minutes. If our D is not conditioned well enough to hold up for an extra 5 minutes we are in trouble.

I don't think it's conditioning. I don't think we're in trouble. I think it's communication on the D and a learning curve for the Oline on the O. Both are getting better and we'll see the results going forward.

11-5 is still alive.

 

[daveyoung52]

IMHO the D has been weakened this year losing DQ, BM,Kam,JL,TS,the O,on the other hand,i'm sure you all can see where i'm going.How can it be layed on the D,rather than,DB,Cable,JS and PC ?

 

[TwistedHusky]

And that is the issue.

How can you call out the defense for merely being above average instead of stellar, when the offense is continually & consistently below standard by almost every measure?

Especially considering the offense is clearly trying to transition to another style of play that it might not even be suited for, and seems to work against how the rest of the team is constructed?

 

[Sgt Largent]

Thanks all to those that read the post with an open mind and a degree of comprehension.

For Twisted, see below, maybe it was too long for you.

Even though I didn’t really defend the offense at all in this post, I wanted to show that sometimes we can be right for the wrong reasons. It’s absolutely true that our offense is letting us down this year, but not because we aren’t making 1st downs in the 4th Quarter. We aren’t scoring TDs at anywhere near even league average in the Red Zone.

..right for the wrong reasons. Anyone that took the time to read this without already having jumped to conclusions based on the title, may have been able to interpret that as "The offense HAS been hurting us, but not in the way a lot of us were assuming". As for all the rest of your condescension about "object of game...score more points...blah blah, thanks for the lesson.


For others that posted with regard to TOP (Time of Possession). I feel that can very often be a misleading stat. As a general rule it can useful but not taken as gospel. Similar to Batting Average in Baseball. If I run the ball 3 times (staying inbounds) for one yard and punt, how much time came off the clock? If I throw the ball 3 times, all incomplete, how much time came off the clock? It changed nothing as far as defensive effort is concerned. Trying to gauge how much gas a defense has left doesn't always line up with time of possession.

 

[daveyoung52]

Agree completely Twisted,but when do you sleep? Of course this is far more important than sleep,but i'm in the U.K.