Geno cap hit vs. Me3 cap hit before trade.

[WestCoastChippewa]

Geno: $44.5 million 2025
Me3: $26 2022

Makes you wonder.

 

[Cyrus12]

Wonder about what?

 

[WestCoastChippewa]

Well, this thread might be better in "2025 Salary Cap Question" thread to start with.

It might be better to go with a business decision and trade both Geno and DK, build an Offensive line that opposing Defensive lines are scared of, and roll with Howell like we rolled with Geno. Sounds like MM wants to build both defense and an offense that opposing teams are scared of.

Why analyst thinks Seattle Seahawks will move on from Geno, DK

Jordan Babineaux was right about the Seattle Seahawks moving on from Russell Wilson, making his take on this offseason worth hearing.

sports.mynorthwest.com

 

[Torc]

Doesn't make me wonder at all. He signed a deal that would reward him in 2025 if he played well enough that the team wanted to retain him. He's got the #7 cap nuimber for 2025, less than half of Dak Prescott.

I doubt Geno has any trade value whatsoever. If the Seahawks don't keep him he'll get released - no one is going to give up draft capital for him when they can just wait it out.

I also doubt Howell is going to be a QB that anyone is going to be scared of...

 

[WestCoastChippewa]

Doesn't make me wonder at all. He signed a deal that would reward him in 2025 if he played well enough that the team wanted to retain him. He's got the #7 cap nuimber for 2025, less than half of Dak Prescott.

I doubt Geno has any trade value whatsoever. If the Seahawks don't keep him he'll get released - no one is going to give up draft capital for him when they can just wait it out.

I also doubt Howell is going to be a QB that anyone is going to be scared of...

Tom Brady wouldn't scare me with our OL.

 

[Shane Falco]

It would be a pretty wild off season if they went that route. Some fans think we are an oline and maybe a couple more pieces on defense away from being a legit contender, others not so much. Personally, I'd like to see the tear down of the big contracts myself. QB is always going to be the point of contention though.

 

[keasley45]

We are a competent playcaller and a guard away from contending.

We should keep our eyes on the group we have and maximize what we have in them while they are together.

Window is open in '25. No need to go tearing down the wall it sits in.

 

[flv2]

Would Seahawks fans be happier if the team accounted for players' full salary as they went along? The team would have had lower talent levels for the last 20+ years. However, it would mean that in 2025 Smith's cap would be $31M, Metcalf would be $18M, and Williams would be $20.85M. Of course, this wouldn't actually help because obviously you wouldn't delay cap hits in 2025 to create more space. After all, that's what increases cap hits in the first place.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Tom Brady wouldn't scare me with our OL.

Aaaah, the "it's the o line" excuse. Sucks it doesn't have expiration date

For the record, yes it does suck. But it's not ONLY on the O Line and Grubb. It's also very much on the QB.

 

[OneLofaTatupu]

Inflation

 

[Seattle Person]

Sorry for the long-winded response but here are my thoughts. I'm not an expert. I'm just trying to connect the dots and project numbers (these are projections). I used Overthecap. Plus, I think more in-depth discussions are warranted. I see several plausible outcomes. It still comes down to what the Hawks do with Geno. He isn't playing at a $44.5m cap hit period. These are some interesting considerations.

Lets set the stage for this. The Hawks will trim the fat. They are currently around $27.4m under the cap. They are in the red.

• Cutting T. Lockett will net $17.0m.
• Cutting Dre. Jones will net $11.5m.
• Cutting N. Fant will net $8.9m.
• Cutting R. Jenkins will net $5.2m.
• Cutting R. Robertson-Harris will net $6.6m.
• Cutting G. Fant will net $3.8m.
• Cutting U. Nwosu will net $8.1m.
  • (He has a guarantee trigger in Feb. that will make his guaranteed salary closer to $19m. Tough decision but I have a hard time seeing the team letting this happen.)
• Savings after cuts around $61.1m.
• You can restructure Leo Williams contract to lower his cap hit from $29.1m to about $20m and will add an additional $9m to the savings.
• Total savings $70.1m.
• Now you have to keep in mind $70.1m - $27.4m = $42.7m (After digging themselves out of the red).
• Let's talk about effective cap space:
  • You'll need about $10m in the rookie pool for draft picks. Right now they have 8 picks plus you'll need some money for the UDFAs. $42.7m-$10m = $32.7m.
  • Teams always have to save around $5-$6m for IR players. That's $32.7m-$6m = $26.7m.
• Total projected effective cap space = $26.7 m.
  
  • You haven't re-signed E. Jones.
  • You'll probably need another WR, TE, DT.
  • You need to upgrade on the O-line (multiple spots)
  • You might have to replace a QB.
  • You need role players: Big edge (D. Jones), Run Stoppers (Hankins/Reed), big safety (Jenkins/Wallace).

1) The Seahawks keep Geno and D.K. They have a $44m and $31.8m hit respectively. Neither are playing with those cap hits so lets get that out of the way now. Something is going to happen with these two. If you extend both players, you lower their cap hits. You can give Geno a 2 or 3 year extension and probably can cut his cap hit down to somewhere in the $24m-$28m range. It can save you a bunch of money. Similar to D.K. You can take his cap hit down to the teens and can save you $14m-$15m. You continue to build the lines. By extending both players, you can possibly open up about $30m-$32m. You can see why this is a plausible plan. It's almost needed to do this because you only have about $26.7m in effective cap space.

2) You keep one or the other. With Geno's age and because you save more by letting Geno go (trade/cut) -- I'm leaning this way. By cutting or trading Geno, you save over $30m alone. The questions are real. Is Geno worth the money? Regardless of opinions, 2024 Geno left a lot to be desired. Derailed by O-line play and questionable decisions in and out of the pocket. D.K just turned 27 and will only be around 30 by the time the next contract expires. Plus, you only save about $10m if you cut or trade him. The team might think that's not great value. So extend D.K and let Geno go. You can net $31m (Geno being let go) and $15m-ish (extending D.K). If the team does do this, it does allow them to improve the O-line through F.A and possibly allow them to extend some of their younger players for 2nd contracts (Cross, Walker, Lucas, Woolen, Bryant).

3) You let both players go. Cutting/trading both players will net you around $40m in cap space. It's much needed because the team is currently $27m-$30m under the cap right now. But...you have to replace both players. There aren't that many great replacements in-house or through free agency. The draft is one option but it will take time for young players to become something. There's the rub. You save money but the team gets significantly worse. I don't see this option happening.

 

[Lords of Scythia]

1: The total cap limit number will go up like it does every year.
2: Geno and the team can renegotiate his contract and thus cap hit.

 

[Rat]

Keep in mind, Russ was due an extension, which I assume played largely into why he was traded when he was. Denver was able to mitigate the damage by making some smart roster moves and nailing their QB pick, but the consequences of that extension were prodigious. It would have destroyed many organizations.

Still don't want to pay Geno any further though.

 

[DarkVictory23]

Sorry for the long-winded response but here are my thoughts. I'm not an expert. I'm just trying to connect the dots and project numbers (these are projections). I used Overthecap. Plus, I think more in-depth discussions are warranted. I see several plausible outcomes. It still comes down to what the Hawks do with Geno. He isn't playing at a $44.5m cap hit period. These are some interesting considerations.

Lets set the stage for this. The Hawks will trim the fat. They are currently around $27.4m under the cap. They are in the red.

• Cutting T. Lockett will net $17.0m.
• Cutting Dre. Jones will net $11.5m.
• Cutting N. Fant will net $8.9m.
• Cutting R. Jenkins will net $5.2m.
• Cutting R. Robertson-Harris will net $6.6m.
• Cutting G. Fant will net $3.8m.
• Cutting U. Nwosu will net $8.1m.
  • (He has a guarantee trigger in Feb. that will make his guaranteed salary closer to $19m. Tough decision but I have a hard time seeing the team letting this happen.)
• Savings after cuts around $61.1m.
• You can restructure Leo Williams contract to lower his cap hit from $29.1m to about $20m and will add an additional $9m to the savings.
• Total savings $70.1m.
• Now you have to keep in mind $70.1m - $27.4m = $42.7m (After digging themselves out of the red).
• Let's talk about effective cap space:
  • You'll need about $10m in the rookie pool for draft picks. Right now they have 8 picks plus you'll need some money for the UDFAs. $42.7m-$10m = $32.7m.
  • Teams always have to save around $5-$6m for IR players. That's $32.7m-$6m = $26.7m.
• Total projected effective cap space = $26.7 m.
  
  • You haven't re-signed E. Jones.
  • You'll probably need another WR, TE, DT.
  • You need to upgrade on the O-line (multiple spots)
  • You might have to replace a QB.
  • You need role players (Big edge (D. Jones), Run Stoppers (Hankins/Reed), big safety (Jenkins/Wallace).

1) The Seahawks keep Geno and D.K. They have a $44m and $31.8m hit respectively. Neither are playing with those cap hits so lets get that out of the way now. Something is going to happen with these two. If you extend both players, you lower their cap hits. You can give Geno a 2 or 3 year extension and probably can cut his cap hit down to somewhere in the $24m-$28m range. It can save you a bunch of money. Similar to D.K. You can take his cap hit down to the teens and can save you $14m-$15m. You continue to build the lines. By extending both players, you can possibly open up about $30m-$32m. You can see why this is a plausible plan. It's almost needed to do this because you only have about $26.7m in effective cap space.

2) You keep one or the other. With Geno's age and because you save more by letting Geno go (trade/cut) -- I'm leaning this way. By cutting or trading Geno, you save over $30m alone. The questions are real. Is Geno worth the money? Regardless of opinions, 2024 Geno left a lot to be desired. Derailed by O-line play and questionable decisions in and out of the pocket. D.K just turned 27 and will only be around 30 by the time the next contract expires. Plus, you only save about $10m if you cut or trade him. The team might think that's not great value. So extend D.K and let Geno go. You can net $31m (Geno being let go) and $15m-ish (extending D.K). If the team does do this, it does allow them to improve the O-line through F.A and possible allow them to extend some of their younger players for 2nd contracts (Cross, Walker, Lucas, Woolen, Bryant).

3) You let both players go. Cutting/trading both players will net you around $40m in cap space. It's much needed because the team is currently $27m-$30m under the cap right now. But...you have to replace both players. There aren't that many great replacements in-house or through free agency. The draft is one option but it will take time for young players to become something. There's the rub. You save money but the team gets significantly worse. I don't see this option happening.

Nice analysis. You kind of mentioned it in why #3 is unrealistic, but you didn't mention in #2 that you also still need to replace Geno with that plan.

That remains the issue. I think it's clear Howell's not it. I don't know how Schneider feels about the QBs in this draft. Any FA who is close to Geno's level is going to cost what we paid him or more (if younger, though, you can possibly limit early year cap hit with a longer contract).

I think this depends highly on two things:
1) Where does Mac and JS feel we are next year or two? Are we contending? Then we probably want to keep Geno. If we don't believe that, that changes the contract value.
2) Who is our new OC and what's his scheme? If it's a game manager style or pass heavy scheme, Geno's a fit and--similar to what we had with Grubb--you have a good base to evaluate how things are going. Is he an RPO disciple? Is designed QB runs one of his keys? Then we could be better off trying to find someone younger.

Definitely need to make some moves with Geno and DK's contracts regardless, though, as you mentioned.

 

[flv2]

It comes down to how much the team wants to spend this year and how much dead money they choose to account for. There's $67M, (previously paid to the top 7 veteran contract earners), that the Seahawks have to account for in 2025. That's the 1st thing that will come out of the 2025 cap.

Teams don't make decisions based purely on individual 1-season cap numbers. For the record the players on the current roster have a combined dead money cap hit of more than $160M*. The Seahawks aren't getting rid of everyone. Some will be released, some will have restructured contracts that delay cap hits without increasing or reducing pay, and some will be offered increases or cuts. Some will even be retained on their current deals without restructures .

* It's a bit of a nonsense number because it includes the full contract guarantees for future seasons of 1st round rookie contracts. Smith-Njigba, Witherspoon, and Murphy aren't going to be cut.

 

[Seattle Person]

Nice analysis. You kind of mentioned it in why #3 is unrealistic, but you didn't mention in #2 that you also still need to replace Geno with that plan.

That remains the issue. I think it's clear Howell's not it. I don't know how Schneider feels about the QBs in this draft. Any FA who is close to Geno's level is going to cost what we paid him or more (if younger, though, you can possibly limit early year cap hit with a longer contract).

I think this depends highly on two things:
1) Where does Mac and JS feel we are next year or two? Are we contending? Then we probably want to keep Geno. If we don't believe that, that changes the contract value.
2) Who is our new OC and what's his scheme? If it's a game manager style or pass heavy scheme, Geno's a fit and--similar to what we had with Grubb--you have a good base to evaluate how things are going. Is he an RPO disciple? Is designed QB runs one of his keys? Then we could be better off trying to find someone younger.

Definitely need to make some moves with Geno and DK's contracts regardless, though, as you mentioned.

Yeah,

I don't know what the plan is to replace Geno. Right now, I think it's about 50/50 whether he comes back. I do think both sides would rather have Geno be the Seahawks QB in 2025. The team probably wants to do the same yearly contract structure and Geno's team probably wants a more secured contract. I mean Kirk Cousins got it...

The next O.C is very critical here. Are they going to be more run heavy? Are they going to get a more cost-effective bridge QB? Someone like Drew Lock? A lot of questions.

 

[DarkVictory23]

Yeah,

I don't know what the plan is to replace Geno. Right now, I think it's about 50/50 whether he comes back. I do think both sides would rather have Geno be the Seahawks QB in 2025. The team probably wants to do the same yearly contract structure and Geno's team probably wants a more secured contract. I mean Kirk Cousins got it...

The next O.C is very critical here. Are they going to be more run heavy? Are they going to get a more cost-effective bridge QB? Someone like Drew Lock? A lot of questions.

Yeah, but Cousins could also be used as a negative example for the Seahawks. Like, 'Yeah, that was obviously a mistake for Atlanta, we don't want to do that.' At some point, teams are going to realize QBs are extremely overpaid relative to value but you can't be the only team who doesn't pay. You've got to have a growing consensus among GMs before those contracts get more realistic.

As for Drew Lock... if the Seahawks drop Geno and bring in Lock, that's about as clear a sign as you can get that they aren't planning to win next year.

 

[Seattle Person]

Yeah, but Cousins could also be used as a negative example for the Seahawks. Like, 'Yeah, that was obviously a mistake for Atlanta, we don't want to do that.' At some point, teams are going to realize QBs are extremely overpaid relative to value but you can't be the only team who doesn't pay. You've got to have a growing consensus among GMs before those contracts get more realistic.

As for Drew Lock... if the Seahawks drop Geno and bring in Lock, that's about as clear a sign as you can get that they aren't planning to win next year.

There might be a game of chicken here from both sides:

- Seahawks: We ain't paying you. You're not getting the Kirk treatment. Plus, you're going to be 35.

- Geno: You want Lock to be your QB? Howell?

Ideally, it's somewhere in between. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Geno is let go and in comes Drew Lock. Especially if the new O.C is known to utilize a run heavy offense.

 

[DarkVictory23]

There might be a game of chicken here from both sides:

- Seahawks: We ain't paying you. You're not getting the Kirk treatment. Plus, you're going to be 35.

- Geno: You want Lock to be your QB? Howell?

Ideally, there it's somewhere in between. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Geno is let go and in comes Drew Lock. Especially if the new O.C is known to utilize a run heavy offense.

I don't know what the appeal would be of Lock unless we bring in a coach that is familiar with the dude. He's firmly established he's mid-tier backup level and I think we could get someone equivalent for cheaper if that's the way we want to go.

Maybe he'd help sell tickets since folks know his name in Seattle? I don't know. But even being a run heavy team, you can't sell that offense unless they manage to nab some serious road graders at both guard spots.

 

[Seattle Person]

I don't know what the appeal would be of Lock unless we bring in a coach that is familiar with the dude. He's firmly established he's mid-tier backup level and I think we could get someone equivalent for cheaper if that's the way we want to go.

Maybe he'd help sell tickets since folks know his name in Seattle? I don't know. But even being a run heavy team, you can't sell that offense unless they manage to nab some serious road graders at both guard spots.

Lock isn't that appealing. He has traits. There are other dudes too. It's going to be interesting to see what happens with Geno.