Football Outsiders puts Seattle as favorites to win the SB

[SalishHawkFan]

Kinda surprised me that we vaulted past Denver after that game against TB.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Comments from Niners fans, in a Seahawks Forum, in 3.....2.....1......

 

[12thManNorth]

In fairness to Niners fans (NEVER thought I'd say that), the same report also has Chicago and Carolina with better % chances of winning the Superbowl than the 49ers

 

[bestfightstory]

What is insane to me, but comforting, is that they give us a whopping 79%cahnce of getting the #1 seed (which, of course also means we would win our division).

as Fran, on the other hand has only a 7% chance of winning the #1 seed.

How can it be THAT far apart?

 

[Hawks46]

We have a stupid easy schedule. ATL and MIN have what, 3 wins combined at this point?

Then we have a bye, meaning if we can beat two lousy teams without our 2 starting Tackles (which we've done already), we can heal up, get Okung, Giacommini, and Harvin back and make our playoff push.

Of our two biggest threats, we play one at home (where we have the obvious advantage) and the other we play on the road, but we've convincingly won the last 2 matchups and lost the other by 7 points. We're also a decidedly better team than we were the last time we lost to SF.

NO already has more losses than us, plays SF, plays DAL, Carolina twice (I believe CAR swept last year, and CAR is better this year) and us in a long trip out west to the biggest HFA in the league. Looking at SEA's schedule, if we beat NO we don't have 2 more losses on our schedule meaning they're out as #1 seed.

Meanwhile SF plays a very hot CAR team, plays NO at home who might have the 2nd best HFA in football (and SF's biggest weakness is the backend of their defense), and plays us, who've dominated them the last 2 times out and played them close at home.

It looks like SEA has the easiest remaining schedule. We also have more home games remaining, while SF has 4 away games left (although only 2 area against .500 or better teams).

 

[BocciHawk]

In fairness to Niners fans (NEVER thought I'd say that), the same report also has Chicago and Carolina with better % chances of winning the Superbowl than the 49ers

Yep, because the 49ers are in our division... You gotta get to the NFC Championship game before you can go to the Super Bowl.

 

[BocciHawk]

What is insane to me, but comforting, is that they give us a whopping 79%cahnce of getting the #1 seed (which, of course also means we would win our division).

as Fran, on the other hand has only a 7% chance of winning the #1 seed.

How can it be THAT far apart?

We are 1.5 games ahead at this point, with seven games to go. That's actually a pretty big lead. It is entirely possible that the game at the 49ers could end up being essentially meaningless i.e. if the 49ers win, it just means we split, and if we end up ahead of them in wins and losses, or tied in W/L but ahead in the NFC records, or tied in NFC records but ahead in division, we still win the division. Going on the road as a five or six seed is a real long shot.

 

[BocciHawk]

Hawks46, I like all your comments, and they are very valid and very human.

The flip side of it is just on a pure statistics basis, a team that gets a first round bye and a home playoff game has a MASSIVE advantage over a five or six seed in terms of simply reaching the Super Bowl.

With seven games left, and a 1.5 game lead, and one win in hand against the 49ers, we are really in excellent shape to claim a first round bye, as well as HFA throughout, and just that simple stuff means we're huge favorites to win the whole damn thing. This would be true just historically, basically, not looking at all at the specifics of our team, our schedule, the schedule of our rivals, and that sort of stuff.

As you note, when you get into specifics, NO has to play both SF and SEA which makes it a lot harder for NO to catch up with us for HFA. SF has a tougher schedule through the end of the season, certainly. If SF manages to beat SEA in SF, that just becomes a series split, it's not a huge huge advantage for them, and there are many ways we could still win the West (better record, better NFC record, better division record) even if we lost in SF.

 

[BocciHawk]

To put it in math perspective, if you assume that home field counts 60/40 i.e. home team wins 60% of the time...

If the five seed is playing to get to the NFC championship, they have:

.4 chance in first round, .4 chance in second round, and let's assume they don't get to play the championship at home (five hosting six) .4 chance in championship. I get .064 as the odds they make it to the Super Bowl i.e. 6.4 percent.

By comparison, the one seed

1 chance in first round (i.e. bye), .6 chance in second round, .6 in championship, I get 0.36 i.e. 36 percent... the one seed has odds six times as high as the five seed to make it to the Super Bowl, and that doesn't take into account strength of schedule, who you play, weather, the extra rest hopefully helping with the bye... how strong your HFA is...

Obviously this analysis is just superficial, just very very very simplified, but you get the idea. The basic concept -- one seed has a massive advantage over the five or six seed -- is something that is borne out every year, historically. When you add to that that we have a current 1.5 game lead, and SF is a tough team but they are in our division, if they end up being a wild card five or six, while that's exciting for them, it sucks, as the odds of them getting to the Super Bowl are really long in that case.

(I'd love to see SF at SEA for a playoff game, though!)

 

[AgentDib]

FO's analyses, and every similar bottom-up statistical analysis I have seen, projects current rankings onto the future with the assumption that future outcomes are independent from one another. This severely underestimates the likelihood of unexpected outcomes, because many of those unexpected outcomes contain dependent variables.

For example, the money line suggests that Denver is perhaps 80% likely to win in San Diego this week. Let's say they are also 70% likely to win vs. Kansas City the following week (in Denver). It is trivial to calculate how likely they are to win both games, so long as you assume that they are independent events. The more complicated reality is that if Denver loses in San Diego it will definitely affect their odds against KC, because both outcomes are dependent on the same unknown variables: ie. how good is Denver? Did Peyton Manning just get injured for the season?

I think NFL fans have a good intuitive understanding of this when they aren't letting simplified models sway their thinking. That is why anybody on these boards could concoct a "plausible" scenario in which Denver would lose their next five games, probably mostly revolving around key injuries, whereas rudimentary projections based on only the current status quo would have you think it was close to impossible.

 

[Smelly McUgly]

Comments from Niners fans, in a Seahawks Forum, in 3.....2.....1......

Say that name three times and they show up like Beetlejuice.

In other words, don't tempt them.

 

[Exittium]

WELL to be honest now.. 1st off lets stop giving 49ers or fans anything kind of credit LETS not forget the 49ers have gotten play the teams after us i.e. After we've beat them down. Besides what the colts? And look at that score. And was for whiner fans lurking

We're 8-1 Hbu?

 

[RolandDeschain]

Let's not forget that Football Outsiders says we're the only team in the league with a clear, noticeable home field advantage, too. 8)

We're probably getting a 10% bump in Super Bowl chances by their calculations if we get #1 seed. Good luck to the poor suckers that have to come to our house for the playoffs, lol.

 

[Bigpumpkin]

Let's not forget that Football Outsiders says we're the only team in the league with a clear, noticeable home field advantage, too. 8)

We're probably getting a 10% bump in Super Bowl chances by their calculations if we get #1 seed. Good luck to the poor suckers that have to come to our house for the playoffs, lol.

Tell that to Tampa Bay! They almost skinned our ass last Sunday......at the Clink! :roll: It almost gave me nightmares!

 

[RolandDeschain]

Let's not forget that Football Outsiders says we're the only team in the league with a clear, noticeable home field advantage, too. 8)

We're probably getting a 10% bump in Super Bowl chances by their calculations if we get #1 seed. Good luck to the poor suckers that have to come to our house for the playoffs, lol.

Tell that to Tampa Bay! They almost skinned our ass last Sunday......at the Clink! :roll: It almost gave me nightmares!

Football Outsiders is also calling the Bucs the best 0-8 team to ever exist. Just FYI. Still, we made major mistakes, as has been our modus operandi this year...

 

[OkieHawk]

Football Outsiders is also calling the Bucs the best 0-8 team to ever exist. Just FYI. Still, we made major mistakes, as has been our modus operandi this year...

That is such a weird concept, but fairly accurate.

 

[Reaneypark]

Let's not forget that Football Outsiders says we're the only team in the league with a clear, noticeable home field advantage, too. 8)

We're probably getting a 10% bump in Super Bowl chances by their calculations if we get #1 seed. Good luck to the poor suckers that have to come to our house for the playoffs, lol.

Tell that to Tampa Bay! They almost skinned our ass last Sunday......at the Clink! :roll: It almost gave me nightmares!

There's no way we win that game without the 12th man.

 

[Sarlacc83]

Let's not forget that Football Outsiders says we're the only team in the league with a clear, noticeable home field advantage, too. 8)

We're probably getting a 10% bump in Super Bowl chances by their calculations if we get #1 seed. Good luck to the poor suckers that have to come to our house for the playoffs, lol.

Tell that to Tampa Bay! They almost skinned our ass last Sunday......at the Clink! :roll: It almost gave me nightmares!

Football Outsiders is also calling the Bucs the best 0-8 team to ever exist. Just FYI. Still, we made major mistakes, as has been our modus operandi this year...

Pretty much. The problem with the Buccaneers is coaching - not talent. When they finally can Schiano and bring in a real coach, they'll probably be a 10 - 11 win team.

 

[Popeyejones]

FO's analyses, and every similar bottom-up statistical analysis I have seen, projects current rankings onto the future with the assumption that future outcomes are independent from one another. This severely underestimates the likelihood of unexpected outcomes, because many of those unexpected outcomes contain dependent variables.

For example, the money line suggests that Denver is perhaps 80% likely to win in San Diego this week. Let's say they are also 70% likely to win vs. Kansas City the following week (in Denver). It is trivial to calculate how likely they are to win both games, so long as you assume that they are independent events. The more complicated reality is that if Denver loses in San Diego it will definitely affect their odds against KC, because both outcomes are dependent on the same unknown variables: ie. how good is Denver? Did Peyton Manning just get injured for the season?

I think NFL fans have a good intuitive understanding of this when they aren't letting simplified models sway their thinking. That is why anybody on these boards could concoct a "plausible" scenario in which Denver would lose their next five games, probably mostly revolving around key injuries, whereas rudimentary projections based on only the current status quo would have you think it was close to impossible.

Great post.

 

[Seahwkgal]

Let's not forget that Football Outsiders says we're the only team in the league with a clear, noticeable home field advantage, too. 8)

We're probably getting a 10% bump in Super Bowl chances by their calculations if we get #1 seed. Good luck to the poor suckers that have to come to our house for the playoffs, lol.

Tell that to Tampa Bay! They almost skinned our ass last Sunday......at the Clink! :roll: It almost gave me nightmares!

There's no way we win that game without Russell Wilson.

Fixed that for ya. :th2thumbs: