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  1. AgentDib

    Why you shouldn't put too much stock into PFF Grades

    PFF grades are just an entertainment product but they also invoke a cognitive illusion where we erroneously feel like the more information we consume, the more signal we receive. Taleb discusses this at length in Antifragility and it is summarized as the Noise Bottleneck here. That's a better...
  2. AgentDib

    Why you shouldn't put too much stock into PFF Grades

    PFF grades are assigned by young (inexpensive) 20-somethings with no experience, so they largely end up grading production rather than performance. The grades themselves aren't useful as a result and it's entirely PFFs fault for selling them as indicative of performance when they just aren't...
  3. AgentDib

    Interesting stats for fans down on Geno and/or Russ

    QB salaries are another complication to this discussion. I'm down on Howell compared to most here, but I'd much rather the team had his contract than Jalen Hurts's contract. Similarly, while Jackson is a top 5 QB I'd have to think before taking him on his current deal. That's unusually...
  4. AgentDib

    Interesting stats for fans down on Geno and/or Russ

    The problem with jamming every QB together into a generic ranking is that the outcome depends a lot on whether you are looking at the short term or long term. There are a few QBs at the top who are highly regarded and have won a lot. Most people will put 5-7 QBs in that group depending on how...
  5. AgentDib

    I've Changed My Mind On DK

    DK has been very productive as a Seahawk and the personal foul issues are completely overblown. Lagartixa sums it up well above, but I would just add that receivers have different responsibilities. An important concept in competitive scenarios is that zero penalties or mistakes is too few...
  6. AgentDib

    How would you define success for Macdonald’s first season?

    Personally, I very much doubt that coaching will be our problem this year defensively. That's coming from somebody who didn't think that coaching was our problem last year either. If we do start off poorly, then I would hope that many of the more vocal coaching critics here would use that as...
  7. AgentDib

    Cousins Penix saga

    The move makes sense for the Falcons front office if you consider that their primary goal is to stay employed. The Falcons are favored in the NFC South with Cousins as their QB. Among the scenarios in which this season could turn into a disaster, Cousins getting hurt was at the top list for...
  8. AgentDib

    Pete caused the Adams fiasco from the start

    He tore his shoulder in the final game of 2020 right? Then the criticism started coming in about poor tackling and lack of effort until he fully tore it the next season. Even then, there were still mixed opinions and some amount of optimism at the start of the following year right up until he...
  9. AgentDib

    Pete caused the Adams fiasco from the start

    I see revisionist history going on here as people look to confirm their own biases. Huard said nothing today about the initial trade, he was purely speculating that there could be a place for Jamal as a weak-side LB if he was healthy now. The Jets version of healthy Jamal Adams was an all-pro...
  10. AgentDib

    How I familiarize myself with a draft class

    That's entirely plausible in my view due to the uncertainty in draft outcomes. It's counter intuitive, but the increased selections from trading down can be the best way of plugging holes because you can take more shots at them. Scouts are not statisticians and are not well equipped to discuss...
  11. AgentDib

    Favorite Football Podcast

    I don't care much for the Hawks centric podcasts unless former NFL players or coaches are on. Most of the time there's no actual expertise being provided and if you already follow the team closely then the benefits are questionable. I do listen to most of the big general NFL podcasts (Around...
  12. AgentDib

    The John Schneider Show 4/4/24

  13. AgentDib

    D’wayne Eskridge and new Kickoff rules

    The other thing to remember is the human factor, as booting the ball through the endzone is now taking a loss on every play. Even if that is the best strategy in the big picture, the special teams coordinator is being employed to add value and the kickoff is a huge part of the job...
  14. AgentDib

    The 2024 Great Draft Debate

    The problem with talking about missing on individual players is it goes both ways. There are studs throughout every draft and so if you are going to cherry pick, you could just as easily talk about day 3 standouts that we should have traded down for instead of picking where we did. Ifedi has...
  15. AgentDib

    The 2024 Great Draft Debate

    If you view the draft like throwing darts then quantity leads to quality. You had one near bullseye with two darts, while I was less accurate but had three perfect bullseyes after throwing twelve darts. Of the nine QBs drafted in 2022, here are their relative career valuation ranks: 1) #262 2)...
  16. AgentDib

    Seahawks eligible comp picks (so far)

    Every NFL front office is short-term minded because that's how they are incentivized to behave. Have you ever heard anybody give Tim Ruskell credit for Earl Thomas becoming a Seahawk? Ruskell is the one who traded a 2nd in 2009 for the 1st in 2010 that ended up being the 14th overall pick. Of...
  17. AgentDib

    Seahawks 2024 mock draft March 24th

    I normally wouldn't consider X receiver a need, but Grubb certainly wasn't beholden to archetypes last year. Odunze was the prototypical X but still took 150 snaps in the slot. Westover played all over (50% inline/35% slot/12% wide/3% backfield). Bernard and Polk basically rotated positions...
  18. AgentDib

    Candidates to be extended this offseason

    One of the benefits of drafting players is the opportunity to sign extensions for those players going into their final artificially cheap year. Upfront guaranteed dollars are highly coveted and it's a win-win for player and team to work out a decent deal. For example, RW's cap hit in year six...
  19. AgentDib

    Candidates to be extended this offseason

    Here are the candidates for contract extensions, their cap hit this year, and their age next season. Would you extend any of them? OT Stone Forsythe: $0.9m age 27 WR D'Wayne Eskridge: $1.5m age 28 LB Jon Rhattigan: $3.0m age 26 DE Jarran Reed $4.5m age 32 CB Michael Jackson $3.1m age 28 CB Tre...
  20. AgentDib

    Pick 16

    It's tough to predict this year without knowing more about Lucas. I don't think this FO will draft a guard at #16 but they would definitely draft a right tackle with the ability to play guard. If we have long-term doubts about Lucas then I can see them staying at #16 and picking a versatile...

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