Reviewing the Seattle Seahawks: Niners take

NinersNation.com
By WesHanson on Mar 19 2013
"NFL free agency: Reviewing the Seattle Seahawks imposing offseason to date"

http://www.ninersnation.com/2013/3/19/4 ... -offseason

"It's tempting to be afraid of the Seahawks in March. And it's smart too. That's a good team. But, I don't think they have gotten so much better that we should just roll over. As a whole, I think our roster is probably better, save the secondary, probably the d-line, and maybe (and this is a BIG maybe) and the RB corps. This is the start of a good rivalry because both of these teams are good teams. We shouldn't be handing over the division just yet."


My 49ers buddy sent me this article, sorry if had been posted already. I didn't see it anywhere......

That article has almost no substance at all. "Hey niners fans, here is a bit of rubbish I put together to make us feel better".

Meh, beyond all of the exuberance around here, I don't think anybody thinks the Niners will be a cake walk next season.

We still have to play the games, and I'm certain that the team won't take them lightly, to be sure.

Off season filler.

:229031_shrug:

There's a word for what he's doing, but I can't think of it. Bush Jr. did it in the build up to invading Iraq. He never came out and SAID Iraq and nukes, he just kept putting the thought into his gullible followers by mentioning Iraq in one sentence, then nukes in the other....and it worked.

Here's what this guy does - and I quote him:

"they have traded for WR Percy Harvin, they have signed pass rusher Michael Bennett for one year at $5 million, and they signed another pass rush guy in Cliff Avril for two years at $15 million....the Seahawks have gotten better in the short term" (emphasis mine)

"the Seahawks are a good team, but....things are going to change rapidly for them soon. They will run into cap issues."

"this season...the Seahawks will live and die with QB Russell Wilson....flash in the pan QB...Colin comes out a bit better...we have already proven with Alex Smith that this team doesn't need a lights-out-Kaepernick to win. Can the Seahawks say the same? What happens when the league adjusts to Wilson next season?"

"Percy Harvin....he ain't an elite receiver...averaging only 10.9 yards per reception....compare that to Michael Crabtree's 13.0....he does not produce at an elite level"

" Cliff Avril and Micahel Bennett...are still one sack less awesome than Aldon Smith...question mark for Bennett...Avril, the big question"

" the Seahawks: they still need to do a better job of pass protection."

that's it. Don't worry Niner fans, nothing to worry about here.

The whole article is nothing more than a big "pooh! pooh!"

That was a poorly written article with logic that apparently only applies one way. Who uses the word aint in an article anyway?

I love how he brings up that because Kaepernick played half a season, he needs to compare rate statistics to be "fair". Bottom line is that since Kaepernick started, of those weeks, Wilson smoked him in virtually all measurables almost every time. 49ers fans will argue that you have to compare Kaepernick's first 8 games to Wilson's first 8, but that's not correct; Kaepernick rode the pine, learning and getting comfortable with the playbook and his teammates, for a year-and-a-half. Plus, he got valuable clipboard-holding experience during their deep playoff run last year. Wilson, on the other hand, shared reps between 3 QBs throughout OTAs and training camp, and between him and Flynn through the pre-season. He wasn't named starter until after the 3rd pre-season game. So, yeah. Wilson led the league in passer rating and QBR from week 8 onward. The entire league.

His play wasn't gimmicky; usually QBs that start off hot their rookie year then have a slump, it's because they got away with more non-standard play than is typical, or that they can sustain long-term, in their first year. We did some read-option, sure; but it wasn't the staple of the entire offense. RG3's not going to be able to make a career out of half his passes being shovels and screens to his RB, and Andrew Luck will need to get his turnovers way down to have a great career; which I expect he probably will. What were Wilson's negatives in the entire second half of the season? None of note. Minor things. Anybody expecting or hoping that he will not have a better season this year than he did last year is just a homer for another team, or a Seahawks hater.

Wilson's going to be ahead of Kaepernick in passer rating, QBR, and TD-INT ratio this year. Just watch and see.

Agreed. While I don't think we're going to thunderstomp them ( I have us winning here, them winning there), I think we've gotten better than them so far this offseason, but they have an assload of draft picks to play with.

The biggest issue I have with a lot of people comparing the two teams is the argument that Wilson will regress. I've heard everything from "sophomore slump" to "teams will figure him out". What most people outside of Seahawks fans don't get is that we don't have Kaepernick or RGIII up here. We have Russell Wilson. The guy scrambles to throw, and he doesn't get out of the pocket with the express intention of running first. There's nothing to "figure out". People haven't figured Aaron Rodgers out, and their games are similar. Wilson is also better in the pocket than either Kaep or RGIII. He's better at reading progressions, spreading the ball around, and finding open receivers.

Conversely, these same people will talk about Wilson "coming down to earth" while Kaepernick will remain "totally awesome", which makes even less sense. Wilson started more games than Kaepernick did. He has more experience. He's less likely to have a slump in that way. Also, Kaepernick runs the ball a lot more, and the Niners run the read option more often than we do. The general consensus around the league is that the read option will get figured out; it will probably still work, but won't be so wildly successful. Running the ball a lot more will get you hurt faster. Kaepernick takes more hits than Wilson does. Over an entire season, it's going to be hard on him. So I also find it amusing that Wilson gets figured out, while Kaepernick doesn't.

While on the running topic, if both teams lost our starting QB, it would really damage our seasons. Thing is, our backup QB is much much better than SF's, at least at this point. So, if both QBs like to run, and both get hurt, our team will still be in better shape.

Not a bad article, considering it was written to assuage the fright of the 9ers fans.

Still, a couple things were a bit disingenuous (or flat mistaken). First, the idea of Wilson running into problems adjusting as teams adjust to him should be equally as concerning for 9ers fans and their QB. you can compare the two by numbers all you like, i dont think either is better than the other, and any adjustments made to stop one will be used against the other if they work.

Also, judging Percy Harvin on reception numbers misses the greatness that he is. Percy is to the WR position what Wilson and Kaep are to the QB position... flexible and frightful. They compare his yards per catch to Crabtree, but ignore his backfield numbers (as a runner). Harvin will add a dimension to the read option that Wilson didnt have last year. he can run WR screens, go deep, run from the slot... and that ignores the fact that he currently is arguably the best Kick returner in the NFL.

The teams greater weaknesses will not come from judging its newest signings, but where they have yet to address.

the real reality is that, like it or not, these two teams and QBs will be going at each other for the next 5-8 years on a level the NFL hasnt seen within a division in quite some time. It is going to be remarkable entertainment

I find it funny he's talking about "BUYING" and NFC West title and how SEattle will be up against the cap next year. When in fact Seattle and SF are in virtually the same cap situation.

As far as I can tell SF is around 5.5 million below the cap. Seattle also is in the 5-6 million range and according to Clayton once Obomanu is gone that goes up to nearly 8 million.

ahhh...the niners. I think the thing that I find the most interesting is the fact that while we were holding our rookie QB back SF beats us by just 7 points (6-13) but at the end of the year when everyone on both teams is peaking (and SF was playing dam good ball) we kicked the ever loving crap out of them 42-13 on prime time. I have no doubt if Clemons and Jones wouldn't have been hurt we would have been playing in the SB. But cudo's to them for going.

I don't think anyone here is saying that we are gonna cake walk through SF, but they are fooling themselves if they think we are a flash in the pan team. I can't wait.....

I don't know why I wasted my time reading that, but these two paragraphs really made it worthwhile

But that still leaves this season. How, oh how, can the 49ers ever compete with THAT roster? Well, first off, we should recognize that the Seahawks will live and die with QB Russell Wilson. The rookie had a great season, and I think he will have a long and fruitful career in the NFL, but he still has a long way to go. NFL history is littered with flash in the pan QBs. Wilson still has a lot to prove.

And don't forget, we also have a pretty good QB ourselves. He also has a lot to prove. But, comparing both QBs last season using rate statistics (which is the only effective way, since Colin Kaepernick only played half a season), we can see that Colin comes out a bit better. Colin has a better Adjusted Yards per Attempt, with an 8.6 compared to Wilson's 8.1. This gives Kaep an AY/A+ of 125 (which is crazy good - remember, rate stats that end in "+" usually have 100 as average) compared to Wilson's 118. Kaepernick is also a better runner, carrying the ball for an average of 6.4 yards per attempt compared to Wilson's 5.2. Related to rushing is the fact that Wilson takes more sacks, with a Sack%+ of 88, while Kaep's is 95 (which means he is below average). And to jump real quickly to Football Outsider's evaluations of the two, Colin has a DVOA of 25.7% in contrast to Wilson's 19.7%. Does this mean anything going forward? Probably that the two QBs are going to be exceptional players. It should be exciting. But, we have already proven with Alex Smith that this team doesn't need a lights-out-Kaepernick to win. Can the Seahawks say the same? What happens when the league adjusts to Wilson next season?

Click to expand...

So Kaepernick with half the number of starts is definitely not flash in the pan, defenses will adjust to Russell Wilson but not to Kaepernick and the best way to compare them is to use rate statistics over a full season because Kaepernick would perform the exact same over a 16 game season as he did in 8 games because of course nobody will ever figure him out and the year and a half he had of sitting on the bench definitely didn't help him before starting

I also find it laughable that he was saying Harvin's contract will put us in cap hell. We had more cap space at the beginning of the year, have managed it better, and signed all 3 FA's to very reasonable deals.

Harvin's contract only worries me as pertains to getting Russell signed, but I don't think it will be that difficult, and the team isn't letting him go anywhere.

Lets turn that article around on this guy and expose what an ass he is:

"they have traded for WR Percy Harvin, they have signed pass rusher Michael Bennett for one year at $5 million, and they signed another pass rush guy in Cliff Avril for two years at $15 million....the Seahawks have gotten players who will have an immediate impact"

""the Seahawks are a good team and....they've done an excellent job addressing their future cap issues."

"this season...the Seahawks know that with proven backup Matt Flynn, they will not have to live and die with QB Russell Wilson.......Wilson comes out a bit better... jump real quickly to Football Outsider's evaluations of the two, Colin has a DYAR (DYAR means a quarterback with more total value) of 553 compared to Wilsons 867...What happens when the league adjusts to Kaep next season?"


"Michael Crabtree....he ain't an elite receiver...averaging only 13.0 yards per reception....compare that to Golden Tate's 15.3....he does not produce at an elite level"

" Cliff Avril and Micahel Bennett...give Seattle 4 pass rushers with 8 or more sacks...the Niners live or die by Aldon Smith...torn labrum is a question mark for Smith"

" the Niners: they still need to do a better job of pass protection...gave up more sacks than Seattle"

Yeah, there are a few sins of omission in that piece, but the writer isn't completely wrong.

Harvin, Avril, and Bennett seem like just what the doctor ordered to address some of our issues. But we've seen the Redskins (and more recently, the Eagles) make big splashes in FA, just to see it all fall apart.

I don't think our team is going to fall apart in any way, and I think we should challenge for a SB this year. But I don't think just because we've been receiving offseason accolades, it's all going to be a cakewalk.

SalishHawkFan":3v1q5bf8 said:

Lets turn that article around on this guy and expose what an ass he is:

"they have traded for WR Percy Harvin, they have signed pass rusher Michael Bennett for one year at $5 million, and they signed another pass rush guy in Cliff Avril for two years at $15 million....the Seahawks have gotten players who will have an immediate impact"

""the Seahawks are a good team and....they've done an excellent job addressing their future cap issues."

"this season...the Seahawks know that with proven backup Matt Flynn, they will not have to live and die with QB Russell Wilson.......Wilson comes out a bit better... jump real quickly to Football Outsider's evaluations of the two, Colin has a DYAR (DYAR means a quarterback with more total value) of 553 compared to Wilsons 867...What happens when the league adjusts to Kaep next season?"


"Michael Crabtree....he ain't an elite receiver...averaging only 13.0 yards per reception....compare that to Golden Tate's 15.3....he does not produce at an elite level"

" Cliff Avril and Micahel Bennett...give Seattle 4 pass rushers with 8 or more sacks...the Niners live or die by Aldon Smith...torn labrum is a question mark for Smith"

" the Niners: they still need to do a better job of pass protection...gave up more sacks than Seattle"

Click to expand...

^This

When you try and pass fact without any real concrete data (see that guy using rate stas) you just have Homerism. And as shown all you have to do is make little changes, to change the overall subject theme. Well done. If you post this as a reply to the thread please post the replies you recieve. The Tate stat is gold I use it all the time when people want to talk YPR.

This rivalry is going to be flat out awesome. It's really hard to equate the Raiders/Broncos of the 80s to what this rivalry is becoming.

We were barely in contention for a very short period of time. And other than a magical win in Miami, we were never a serious contender for a conference title. We were no more competitive than the Bengals of today.

We really never had the opportunity to be in games that mattered to the degree they have and will have going forward. The kinds of wins (and bitter losses) that forge the kinds of rivalries in the NFC East and North. Even when we were good, everyone else in the division was terrible. The only possible rivals we had was the Rams, but our trajectories never intersected. We were ships passing in the night. One year we couldn't beat them in three tries. The next year we started a 5 year winning streak on them as they sunk to irrelevance.

For me, I think it's important to realize that SF has handled us pretty easily. One win in the last 5 games. Everywhere we failed, SF succeeded. That team, like it or not, is the standard bearer.

Do I think we've closed this gap. Yes. But there is the hurdle of beating the champion and facing 16 opponents as a front runner candidate. The league is replete with up and coming teams that wilt under the weight and glare of expectation. SF doesn't have that kind of doubt. They've been tearing up the league despite expectation. This is new to us. Before this year, we were just a 7-9 team (three years straight) that kept tripping over it's meat. Before this past season, we just set the all time franchise record for consecutive losing seasons.

Even Dallas: that worthless, bloated, narcissistic and delusional fan base felt like coming to the Clink with that God awful team was going to be an easy win. Dallas would be a last place team in the NFC west by a mile. That's how abysmally low our expectation levels were.

This year, every team is going to look to punch us in the mouth and shut the bandwagon analysts up. And if they happen to rub Sherman's face in his own excrement that would be a bonus too. This is a team that is going to be VERY EASY to hate. Teams are going to see wins against Seattle as signature wins. Not some patsy whose existence merely interrupts your game preparations for your next weeks' opponent.

We have a challenge before us before we all start falling over each other to coronate our hometown team. We have not arrived yet. But games that matter, and a rivalry -- a REAL rivalry is opening before us.

Getting in before the Whiner fan brigade... :thfight7:

Good post, Attyla. Trenchant and realistic.

Roll over, ninernsnation.

Niners Nation is an absolute pit. David Fucillo is fine, but the commenters there are football-stupid and stuck in a chronological warp in which it is always the mid-80s, no matter if the Niners win three or thirteen games.

They are the WORST bunch of fans on the internet, and that includes 49ersWebZone, which I honestly think has to be a parody of a fan site because there is no other explanation for it.