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 Post subject: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 5:46 am 
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I guess we'll see what Seattle does at DT over the next few days. My immediate thought when I heard the terms of the Harvin deal was how screwed Seattle will be if they don't get Desmond Bryant or retain Jason Jones in free agency. There might be a decent DT available at #56, but he probably won't be an upgrade as a pass rusher. If Seattle walks into the draft badly needing interior pass rush, then do you just punt that need to 2014 or do you make a bold move back into the first round for Datone Jones?

I think Jones' floor is probably the 31st overall pick (SF). It would be nice to keep him away from the 49ers too. Unfortunately, to get in to 20s you'd have to pay our #56 plus a future 1st. It would be a steep price, but we don't have a ton of holes on this roster and there are ways Seattle could recoup draft picks in 2014. They've drafted well with late picks.

Personally, I'd be okay with it. Datone Jones is showing a lot of the same signs that Geno Atkins had around this time in 2010. Speedy DTs tend to do very well in the NFL. And Jones is more than track fast, he's very explosive off the snap and dominated near the end of the season and senior bowl. He also had the best 2012 stats of any DT this year.

If we don't trade up, then you are probably hoping that one of Corey Lemonier, Sly Williams or Kawann Short falls to us. I'm a big fan of Short, but I'd give him maybe a 10% chance of reaching us. I think the most likely pick without a trade is Lemonier. If we waited til round 3, you are probably looking at Bennie Logan, Brandon Williams, and Lavar Edwards at DT. Logan is to me a poor man's Sly Williams (a big man that moves decently and has a well rounded game, but is not the pass rusher we need). I'm intrigued by Brandon Williams but he's one of the slowest 3-techs in the draft, and slow DTs are rarely pass rushing monsters. Lavar Edwards would be our bargain bin version of Datone Jones / Jason Jones, but he is inexperienced at DT.


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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 6:12 am 
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Great topic. Even BEFORE the Harvin trade, I wondered if this might be the year that JS/PC buck their established trend of trading back, yet remain consistent in their penchant for the unexpected, by trading UP.

Now there is an air of immediacy about this team-not desperation, but opportunity, and with Harvin now in the fold, our pass rush remains our most obvious need.

Can they count on the guy with the pubes being there (or somebody similar) in the 2nd or 3rd and effective in the pros rapidly?

Or might they do something bold and unexpected.

I wouldn't put anything past them.

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Last edited by bestfightstory on Tue Mar 12, 2013 6:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 6:13 am 
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I think the deal for Harvin shows that the team feels they are at the point where they will make any move necessary to get the guys they want. If someone has an unexpected fall on draft day, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Hawks jump back in to the 1st, even if it means likely trading a 1st from next year. JS/PC have shown two key things that makes you not feel like any moves they make will mortgage the future. Hitting on late rounders and accumulating picks on draft day and through the season. Despite dealing for Harvin, they'll still probably have 8 picks if the compensatory projections are correct. Trade Flynn/Washington, free up some of that cash and maybe get another pick or two back. I wouldn't put anything past these guys at this point. They're better at their jobs than I could ever dream of being in my life, I'm 99% sure at this point, and will be 100% sure when I'm celebrating with the Hawks in Jersey next year.

Wouldn't surprise me either if they decided to do sign Bryant right when free agency starts. This all feels like an Ali fight. JS/PC pullin the rope-a-dope, lulling the NFL to sleep with their build through the draft, hunt for value type approach and then bam! In Year 4 of the 4 Year Plan they come out swinging for the fences. It shows the confidence they have in their ability to find talent in the draft in any round. Even when some of these guys rookie contracts are up and pursue greener pastures (more $). They'll just draft guys to replace them and we'll fall in love with those players too. Green Bay has been doing it for years. You keep most of your own but sometimes some get away but they get replaced. They haven't even started locking their own guys up yet. They'll get that right too.

So to answer your question more directly. Yes. I think if someone they love is available, and if the value's doable/smart, then trading back into the 1st round will and should definitely be a consideration. If Sheldon Richardson miraculously slides on Draft Day, or even Star (that's still my ultimate draft day dream. He's the guy I've wanted since the start of the college football season and I'm stickin with it) then I would hope that they trade back in and get their guy. I want to say I think they would.

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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 7:03 am 
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Well, Free Agency is just about upon us, so we'll have to see what they do there before we make any bold predictions about the draft.

But I agree it could happen.

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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 7:05 am 
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I kind of doubt it. I felt like this was a year with about 20 first round grades, and about 50 second round grades.

Not a hijack, but I still think our backup QB gets turned into a 3rd or 4th.

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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 7:09 am 
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Tough call. I don't think it will happen though.

I would love to be a fly on the wall in the f.o. TODAY.

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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 7:32 am 
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I think we are going LB in the second, I have a feeling Quinn will bring the heat from KJ Wright and Jeron Johnson.

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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:01 am 
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Nobody really knows what pubes guy's draft stock looks like at the moment. Armonty Bryant at #56 wouldn't shock me, but he might last into the late rounds, too. John Simon is a similar story.

Scottemojo wrote:
I kind of doubt it. I felt like this was a year with about 20 first round grades, and about 50 second round grades.

Not a hijack, but I still think our backup QB gets turned into a 3rd or 4th.


I think Richardson, Lotolelei and Jones all deserve 1st round grades, personally.

I think in a just universe Flynn gets us a 3rd round pick, but there have been no Flynn rumors at all while guys like Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick have been hot topics. When Flynn is brought up by non-Seahawks fans as a trade option, it is usually with a laugh.


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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:30 am 
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If it's for a DT, yes. However, only if they think they can get someone like Gooden in the 3rd or 4th round to take care of the LB position. I do like the idea of 'going for broke' a bit this year, but at the same time, losing next years draft picks is toying with fire considering the 2010 draft class is going to come up for contracts.

LTs like Okung don't come cheap, and Ed Reed was on a 6 year/44 million contract for Baltimore so you can expect ET to have similar expectations. You have to be prepared for the possibility of losing one of those two guys if the numbers elsewhere are better, so next year's first might end up being extremely important for us.

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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:56 am 
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Sarlacc83 wrote:
If it's for a DT, yes. However, only if they think they can get someone like Gooden in the 3rd or 4th round to take care of the LB position. I do like the idea of 'going for broke' a bit this year, but at the same time, losing next years draft picks is toying with fire considering the 2010 draft class is going to come up for contracts.

LTs like Okung don't come cheap, and Ed Reed was on a 6 year/44 million contract for Baltimore so you can expect ET to have similar expectations. You have to be prepared for the possibility of losing one of those two guys if the numbers elsewhere are better, so next year's first might end up being extremely important for us.

I'm pretty sure John Schneider is with you on this regarding future draft picks. They don't trade them away lightly. It's one of the things I like about him. I've been annoyed the last few years with how many picks teams like the Patsies seem to have stockpiled every year. It's nice to see us doing that effectively. The Hawks are starting to get good at having players on the roster in training to step up when necessary, moreso than at any time in the past I can remember. You do that with those 'unimportant' 2d/3rd day picks.

I don't expect a trade up, but I could see it happen if the right guy is there. Maybe not into the first, but a move up in the second wouldn't be a huge surprise.

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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 9:00 am 
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Re-sign Branch.

Look at the veteran LEO's (Abraham?).

Then at #56 draft a Jason Jones type.


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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 9:07 am 
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I don't think we can afford it, honestly. With a late 2nd being our next highest pick, we'd have to package at least our 2nd, 3rd, & 4th or risk mortgaging the future in next year's draft.

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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 9:46 am 
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I really like Brandon Williams but I don't think of him as a 1-gap 3-tech, I think he could be a good NT in a 4-3 defense or a 5 tech in a 3-4. He moves well and has a lot of power in his base, although I think it may take him a season or two to be a starting caliber DT in an under scheme and even then I wouldn't think he is going to be a "star" player.

I don't think any of the prospects are worth it, seems like another player almost as good will be available later as much as I would of liked keeping that #25 pick and hoping a team was willing to trade up for a falling Barkley I think Arizona/Buffalo will get either him or Smith. No other QB is worth a 1st round selection so I'm good with Harvin as our only 1st round selection.

I think we wait for round 2, trade down again, and make a lot of picks in the 3-5 range.

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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 10:12 am 
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I honestly don't think so. HawkWOW asked that very question in relation to Sheldon Richardson, wondering if trading back in to the 1st Round would be a possibility in order to get him. I explored that idea, thinking myself that might be a possibility. Here is what I wrote regarding that ...

Quote:
The latest projections have Sheldon Richardson going somewhere around the 18th Pick in the Draft. That's probably about right that he will go somewhere in there. According to Jimmy Johnson's Point Value Chart, the 18th Pick is worth 900 points. So, what would it take for the Seahawks to get up to #18 to select him?

Seahawks 2013 Draft remaining draft picks
2(56) 340 points
3(87) 155 points
4(122) 50 points
5(133) 39.5 points
5(153) 30.2 points
6(186) 17 points
7(200) 11.4 points
7(206) 9 points
Grand Total ... 652.1 Points (short 247.9 Points)

So, even if the Hawks were to pull a Mike Ditka and trade every single last remaining pick they have this year, they STILL couldn't get up in to that range. [The closest they could get if they were to trade everything this year would be to #28 ... which is worth 660 Points]

But, let's say for some miracle that Richardson somehow slips down to #32 (not going to happen, but just for the exercise of it let's say that he does). The #32 Pick is worth 590 Points. That's a little more reasonable. Still, even in that scenario it would take the Seahawks ...

2(56) 340 points
3(87) 155 points
4(122) 50 points
5(133) 39.5 points
Grand Total ... 584.5 Points (5.5 Points shy -- but do-able with a 7th thrown in as well) to get close. So, unless they want to start mining from the 2014 draft even more (which I agree COULD happen, but I think it less likely.) it's probably not going to happen. I just don't see it at this point.


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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 1:25 pm 
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Given the realities of our available trade resources, maybe the more pertinent question is whether a trade that moves us into position for a second second rounder is a consideration.

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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 1:32 pm 
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theENGLISHseahawk wrote:
Re-sign Branch.

Look at the veteran LEO's (Abraham?).

Then at #56 draft a Jason Jones type.


Branch is much easier to replace than Jones. By the time #56 rolls around, there is a very good chance you could be looking at 4th round projects for the Jason Jones mold (Lavar Edwards, Maliciah Goodman). Not exactly the fix we envisioned this offseason.

I would go so far as to say the Harvin trade was a bad move if it means walking out of this offseason with a worse DT situation as a result.


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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 1:48 pm 
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kearly wrote:
theENGLISHseahawk wrote:
Re-sign Branch.

Look at the veteran LEO's (Abraham?).

Then at #56 draft a Jason Jones type.


Branch is much easier to replace than Jones. By the time #56 rolls around, there is a very good chance you could be looking at 4th round projects for the Jason Jones mold (Lavar Edwards, Maliciah Goodman). Not exactly the fix we envisioned this offseason.

I would go so far as to say the Harvin trade was a bad move if it means walking out of this offseason with a worse DT situation as a result.


Lemenoir would probably be the guy I'd go with if he's there at #56. Problem is, I just don't see any way he's there. One thing I'm personally going to be keeping an eye on is whether or not Jarvis Jones slides out of the 1st Round with the Spinal Stenosis issue. I think that unlikely, but we've seen plenty of unexpected slides just like that on draft day. If he's still there at #33 ... and I were John Schneider ... I would look to trade up at that point to nab him.


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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 2:50 pm 
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I think we go street FA again here and let the draft fall to us in the second, Kearly and others have stated there are maybe 8 top talent guys in this draft, and 60 second tier guys, a few DT's will get picked but what we see and what Pete see's is a lot different anyway. We will be fine, yeah all the draftniks will be dissapointed this year but big deal, a team that makes a run this season will more then make up for it. This will be a lunch pail type draft for us, not a in the spotlight one.

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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 5:42 pm 
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I am not sure about moving up into the first round, but I do see a lot of little jumps for us on draft day. We have enough picks, I think we're going to be creatively nabbing players left and right in the middle rounds. You know, throwing in a sixth with our fourth to move up in the 4th to get a player we like, that kind of thing. Definitely not out of the realm of possibility to move back into the first, but there would have to be a pretty special carrot.

I would love to see us move up in the second and get another 3rd or two.

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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2013 2:13 pm 
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I think the premise that the seahawks MUST HAVE improvements to the DLine is miss-guided.

First, consider our division:

49ers: Run first, especially with Kaep.
St. Louis: Not a huge offensive threat (Bradford is better then the media presents though).
Cardinals: I'll consider their offensive abilities again when I know who their quarterback is going to be.

We have the pieces in place to stop the run, everyone seems to be hung up on our pass rush. Fortunately we can generate pass rush from other areas. I think very highly of Quinn and subsequently I believe that he has the ability and the personnel on the roster to create a pass rush with the current roster.

I think throughout the draft that Sea will go BPA. It's part of the reason the PH trade was such a good deal for us. If you agree with my perspective, Seattle really doesn't have any "needs" in the draft. We have people who are starting NFL caliber at every position. If you don't believe me, name one player we could cut from the 53 last year who wouldn't be picked up by someone else...


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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:01 pm 
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bestfightstory wrote:
Given the realities of our available trade resources, maybe the more pertinent question is whether a trade that moves us into position for a second second rounder is a consideration.

That would be very cool to somehow get another 2nd rounder. Even a 3rd.

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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:06 pm 
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TeamoftheCentury wrote:
bestfightstory wrote:
Given the realities of our available trade resources, maybe the more pertinent question is whether a trade that moves us into position for a second second rounder is a consideration.

That would be very cool to somehow get another 2nd rounder. Even a 3rd.


Now THAT is a much more reasonable conversation. As I outlined above, getting back in to the 1st Round would be an expensive venture. The #32 pick is worth 590 points, so in order to do that it would cost the Seahawks the following picks in this year's draft ...

2(56) 340 points
3(87) 155 points
4(122) 50 points
5(133) 39.5 points
Grand Total ... 584.5 Points (5.5 Points shy -- but do-able with a 7th thrown in as well) to get close.

I just don't see Schneider and Carroll going that route. There's bold ... and then there's foolish and to me that kind of a move would be more of the latter IMO.


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 Post subject: Re: Should trading back into the 1st round be a consideration?
 Post Posted: Thu Mar 14, 2013 12:46 am 
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Hawkscanner wrote:
I honestly don't think so. HawkWOW asked that very question in relation to Sheldon Richardson, wondering if trading back in to the 1st Round would be a possibility in order to get him. I explored that idea, thinking myself that might be a possibility. Here is what I wrote regarding that ...

Quote:
The latest projections have Sheldon Richardson going somewhere around the 18th Pick in the Draft. That's probably about right that he will go somewhere in there. According to Jimmy Johnson's Point Value Chart, the 18th Pick is worth 900 points. So, what would it take for the Seahawks to get up to #18 to select him?

Seahawks 2013 Draft remaining draft picks
2(56) 340 points
3(87) 155 points
4(122) 50 points
5(133) 39.5 points
5(153) 30.2 points
6(186) 17 points
7(200) 11.4 points
7(206) 9 points
Grand Total ... 652.1 Points (short 247.9 Points)

So, even if the Hawks were to pull a Mike Ditka and trade every single last remaining pick they have this year, they STILL couldn't get up in to that range. [The closest they could get if they were to trade everything this year would be to #28 ... which is worth 660 Points]

But, let's say for some miracle that Richardson somehow slips down to #32 (not going to happen, but just for the exercise of it let's say that he does). The #32 Pick is worth 590 Points. That's a little more reasonable. Still, even in that scenario it would take the Seahawks ...

2(56) 340 points
3(87) 155 points
4(122) 50 points
5(133) 39.5 points
Grand Total ... 584.5 Points (5.5 Points shy -- but do-able with a 7th thrown in as well) to get close. So, unless they want to start mining from the 2014 draft even more (which I agree COULD happen, but I think it less likely.) it's probably not going to happen. I just don't see it at this point.



Thanks for posting this. Sobering.


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